Carolyn Purcell - City of Austin, Pecan Street Project

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Carolyn Purcell - City of Austin, Pecan Street Project

  1. 1. The Pecan Street Project Austin, Texas Connected and Sustainable Living CUD, Seoul May 2009 Carolyn Purcell US State and Local Government, IBSG
  2. 2. The Principals City of Austin Austin Energy University of Texas Austin Technology Incubator Environmental Defense Fund Chamber of Commerce Sematech Corporate Partners participating: Cisco, Dell, Gridpoint, Freescale, Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, GE, Applied Materials, Intel
  3. 3. Description of Austin Energy Unique qualities Texas is its own grid “Regulated” by City of Austin and ERCOT It’s really hot in the summer Liberal politically Size of service district 400,000 customer 900,000 population Portfolio Wind, solar, coal, gas, nuclear, other EE program – 25+ yrs Revenues $1B US $100M to the city
  4. 4. The Vision The Future Bio fuels Plug-in H2 Energy Information $’s Fossil Nuclear Fuels Solar Wind Distributed Utility Zero Energy Home
  5. 5. The Goals Defer construction of 300 MW’s of power thru DG, DSM, EE and renewables Develop a viable business model for future AE Increase renewables portfolio Establish a research consortium for new technologies Establish Austin as a haven for emerging energy technologies and technology companies Consider an infrastructure for electric vehicles Ensure a sustainable quality of life in Austin Maintain reliability
  6. 6. The Disruptive Assumptions Solar parity is imminent – AE can’t control the portfolio Back-up power – reliability – wind and solar are not as reliable as prevailing sources – utilities will remain responsible for back-up power Price of energy from utilities will go up (carbon trading) Business model conundrum – how do utilities recover costs and make money in the new environment The law of accelerating returns Finally, the perfect application for AI – managing resources and traffic on the smart grid “Prosumerism” and aggregation – possibility of microgrids selling into a utility’s territory and further eroding utility’s customer base Will electric vehicles cause peak demand to skyrocket? http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1
  7. 7. What’s next? Evaluating the 200 or so proposals from various action teams and melding them into one or two scenarios most likely for AE From that scenario, an action plan that will provide a roadmap for the next 10-15 years In some cases, there simply isn’t enough information to call the shot – multiple options must be delineated with a reference to potential “tipping point” events
  8. 8. Law of Accelerating Returns y Ray Kurzweil An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense quot;intuitive linearquot; view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The quot;returns,quot; such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software- based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

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