Re Establishing Progress On The Md Gs

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Re Establishing Progress On The Md Gs

  1. 1. Session 2 Effect of the Global economic crisis on the growth and development of small states   Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts JLR
  2. 2. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Did the Crisis push MDGs off the Global Menu? JLR
  3. 3. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts The MDGs agreed at the UN General Assembly 2000  Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger  Achieve universal primary education  Promote gender equality  Reduce child mortality  Improve maternal health  Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseases  Ensure environmental sustainability Global partnership for development JLR
  4. 4. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts  How far have we been thrown off the MDG course by the global financial and economic crisis,  What is the plight of the small and island states, and  How can they best get back on course to re-establish progress? JLR
  5. 5. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Who are the national players in the Crisis?  The Villains: who caused it  The Victims: who were immediately hit  The Innocent bystanders: caught in the debris JLR
  6. 6. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Freedom from Want: the development Agenda  Heads of State or Government are urged to take action in the following areas:   Poverty: to halve, by 2015 the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day  From UN secretary General Kofi Annan’s key proposals presented to the Millennium Summit 2000 JLR
  7. 7. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts MDGs Missing data  2005 Commonwealth: Downes review: 29% missing data  2006 UNEP :AEO 2 for Africa: for some indicators up to 74% missing data  2006 SIDS (AIMS region: 11 countries) IOC review: 48% missing data     2008 Africa on Poverty Kasirim Nuwke: data scarce and episodic: no analysis done  2009 World Bank data set on Poverty no data for the principal countries (including UK, France and USA) JLR
  8. 8. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Gaps in MDGs for reviewing Small and island States  Climate change and sea level rise  Disasters  Waste management  Coastal and marine  Tourism  Biodiversity  Demographic change JLR
  9. 9. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts  Macro economic data monthly: latest May 2009  MDGs data yearly: latest 2007  Population data every ten years updated from births and deaths annually JLR
  10. 10. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Ban Ki Moon to the rescue of MDGs  October 2008 SG calls Stiglitz to report on crisis and MDGs  February 2009 UN reports 46m global increase in poverty  March 2009 UN reports small states trapped by reduced remittances  May 2009 World Bank reports crisis hitting MDGs  June 2009 World Bank reports hits on IMRs and women  June 2009 UNESCO reports 20% cut in income of poorest in Africa JLR
  11. 11. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts MDGs Back on the Menu Big Time?  June 2009 USA Global Poverty Act Obama and Biden propose embracing the Millennium Development Goal to cut extreme poverty in half by the year 2015  June 2009 Impact of MDG paradigm on poverty reduction, DFID et al Brussels  June 2009 UN GA meeting on World Crisis and its Impact JLR
  12. 12. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts UN June 2009 Meeting on World Financial and Economic Crisis and its Impact on Development  Strengthen UN capacity, effectiveness and efficiency  Enhance co-ordination between UN, IFIs and regional IGOs  Improve response of UN agencies to crisis and national vulnerabilities and ownership JLR
  13. 13. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts The 46 UN SIDS have a total population of 55 million (Source UNICEF 20007);  Caribbean SIDS 35 million (64%);  AIMS SIDS 11 million (20%) and  Pacific SIDS 9 million (16%). Four States together contain 70% of the total SIDS population  Cuba 21%  Dominican Republic 16%  Papua New Guinea 10%  Singapore 8% JLR
  14. 14. Selected Small and Island States P p tio o ula n P p tio o ula n P p tio o ula n State m ns illio State m ns illio State m ns illio Under 1m Population 1m but under 4m Population Over 4m Population Seychelles 0.1 Mauritius 1.2 Singapore 4.3 St. Lucia 0.2 Guinea-Bissau 1.6 PNG 6.3 Barbados 0.3 Gambia 1.6 Cuba 11.3 Malta 0.4 Botswana 1.9 Fiji 0.8 Jamaica 2.7 Total 32.7
  15. 15. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Five of these thirteen states contain 81% of the total population: a common feature of global demography But the MDG paradigm:  Ignores population size  Frustrates economic analysis  Fails to illuminate resource needs for target pursuit  Lacks an evidence base JLR
  16. 16. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts JLR
  17. 17. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
  18. 18. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
  19. 19. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
  20. 20. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts 88% of the 1.5m people who remain to be fed to meet the target levels come from just four of the 13 states  400,000 from Guinea-Bissau  346,000 from Papua New Guinea  333,000 from Botswana  256,000 from Gambia JLR
  21. 21. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
  22. 22. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts The Task ahead to meet the MDG 4 IMR target Save 19,000 infant lives each year in the 13 selected States But note: 93% are in just four countries:  6,386 in Papua New Guinea  4,680 in Guinea-Bissau  3,525 in Botswana  3,050 in Gambia  What technical and other resources are needed for this task?  What will it cost?  What are the expected results? JLR
  23. 23. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts The Task ahead to meet the Singapore MDG 4 IMR target Save 17,382 infant lives each year in the 6 selected States Iceland has achieved its target; can it defend it ? The target to save infant lives for the other countries is:  13,2006 in the USA  1,510 in France  1,494 in the UK  1,056 in Canada  116 in New Zealand What technical and other resources are needed for this task? What will it cost? What are the expected results?
  24. 24. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Feed-back time  Victims or By-standers ?  Key impacts on MDGs and SD?  Key responses (emergency fiscal packages, new Budgets, regional programmes, etc)?,  Guidelines of best practice?  Green accounts?  South-south collaboration?  Aid or trade?
  25. 25. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts What do the Fiscal polices and Budgets say on MDGs?  Mauritius: Saving jobs and Protecting people (Budget 2009)  Bahamas: International best practice on tax havens (Mid-year Budget 2009)  Barbados: Protect the vulnerable (Budget 2009)  Botswana: Fiscal policy to support economic activity and maintain macro-economic stability (Budget 2009)
  26. 26. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Fro theg a c istotheg a e c p m re t ris re t s a e  Re-visit UN 2005 SIDS Mauritius Strategy  Flag-ship models for key areas and gaps in MDGs  Evidence based policy not policy based evidence  Pursue social equity within and between states  Seek social welfare outcomes  Reform governance, competitiveness, probity accountability  Focus on local action, micro and Islamic finance
  27. 27. Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts Model for action  Re-visit equity  Policies for villains, victims and bystanders  Resilience to threats: population increase, changing markets for tourism and commodities  More evidence based cost-effective action  Better Professional and institutional development  More relevant South-south links for technical transfer
  28. 28. Progress with MDGs Goal 7 Target10 Indicator 30:  Access to Improved water source 2004      Figure 5 People in SIDS without safe water as percent of total 10m without safe water in 34 SIDS  Sources: World Bank 2007, UNICEF 2007  T rinidad & T obago Solomon Islands 1% 1% Comoros Guyana Dominican Republic 1% 1% Cape Verde 4% Jamaica 1% 2% Fiji Haiti 4% Guinea Bissau 35% 6% Cuba 9% Papua New Guinea 32% Haiti Papua New Guinea Cuba Guinea Bissau Fiji Dominican Republic Jamaica Solomon Islands Guyana Trinidad & Tobago Comoros Cape Verde Vanuatu M aldives Suriname Sao Tome & Principe Kiribati Belize Samoa Seychelles Bahamas M arshall Islands Antigua & Barbuda M icronesia Grenada St. Lucia Dominica St Kitts and Nevis Barbados Cyprus M alta M auritius Singapore Tonga
  29. 29. Progress with MDGs Goal 4 Target 5 Indicator 14 IMR 2004 and GDP per Capita PPP $   Figure 4 35 SIDS Sources: World Bank 2007, UNDP 2006 140 Guinea Bissau 120 100 80 Sao Tome & Principe IMR 2004 Haiti Papua New Guinea 60 Comoros Guyana 40 Solomon M aldives y = 46797x-0,8928 Belize  Isles Vanuatu Cape Verde Dominican Republic Jamaica R2 = 0,8319 Tonga 20 Fiji Grenada Trinidad & Tobago St. V & G M auritius Barbados Bahamas Dominica Bahrain St Lucia Seychelles M alta Cyprus Singapore 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 GDP Per Capita PPP $

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