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Predictions Sure To Go Wrong (droidcon UK 2011)
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Predictions Sure To Go Wrong (droidcon UK 2011)

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Keynote presentation from droidcon UK 2011 conference

Keynote presentation from droidcon UK 2011 conference

Published in: Technology
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  • 1. ght-H eartedMo stly Li Predictions Sure to Go Wrong (fall 2011 edition) Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 2. Prediction #1: In three yearstime, 1 out of every 3 mobile applications will be written using cross-platform tools Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 3. 2014: Cross-Platform Tools● What? – Web-Centric ● Pure HTML5 Web apps ● PhoneGap (Adobe!), Rhodes, etc. – App Generators – Others ● Flash, Mono, Unity 3D, Titanium Mobile, etc. Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 4. 2014: Cross-Platform Tools● Why? – Want to hit closer to 100% of devices without maintaining individual ports – Aiming to avoid market-related headaches ● E.g., iOS content subscription sales ● HTML5 Web app plus (perhaps) PhoneGap-wrapped version in markets – They chose the tool for the tools sake, got cross-platform as a side benefit Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 5. Prediction #2: By the end ofthis presentation, tablets will make netbooks irrelevant... with e-readers to follow by 2014 Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 6. 2014: Tablets● Netbooks – Never that popular – Bluetooth keyboards, keyboard docs● E-Readers – Immediately slides to “e-ink display devices” – More powerful e-ink → no more dedicated e- readers ● E.g., Pixel Qi Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 7. Prediction #3: In three years time, Amazon will be the #2consumer tablet manufacturer Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 8. 2014: Amazon● Mass Market Adoption Requires a Story – Existing technology: the market already knows the story ● E.g., mobile phones – New technology: manufacturers need to define the story ● Unique credible stories → reasons to buy ● Easiest story = brand extension from related technology Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 9. 2014: Amazon● Tablet Stories – iPad: Its mobile. Were Apple. (duh) – Kindle Fire: Its a Kindle, with movies and songs and pissed-off birds and such ● Amazon already established the Kindle story and effectively created the e-reader segment ● Key question: will it be Android? – Others: (crickets chirping) Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 10. Prediction #4: In three years time, there will be a well-established pecking order for app distribution Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 11. 2014: Market Makers● Primary Markets – Android Market – Device Markets ● Amazon Appstore ● Nook ● Blackberry ● Etc. – Enterprise “Markets” Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 12. 2014: Market Makers● What Will Fade – Carrier Markets ● Mostly just a promotional channel – Handset Manufacturer Markets ● Mostly just end-around past Android Market geographic limitations – Miscellaneous Markets ● Niche audiences only Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 13. Prediction #5: In three yearstime, modded ROMs will besignificantly more popular... though not necessarily for positive reasons Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 14. 2014: Modded ROMs● Positive Reasons for Rise – More device manufacturer support – Somebody goes after the enterprise / purpose- driven device segment – Specialized vetted ROMs for freedom ● Anti-surveillance ● Pro-sousveillance ● Whole device encryption, etc. Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 15. 2014: Modded ROMs● Negative Reasons for Rise – Increased third-party malware, necessitating ROM-based defenses ● Permission creep ● Tapjacking – Increased on-device spyware ● Blackberry keylogger in UAE (2009) ● Carrier IQ Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC
  • 16. 2014: Miscellaneous Predictions 500,000 apps in Android Market NFC doesnt catch on as hoped 1,000 Android device modelsRovio sued by pigs for discrimination study proves writing books causes hair loss Oracle v. Google still not resolved bugdroid sex tape released better support for apps for small business jelly bean, key lime pie, layer cake Apple sues UK, claims Big Ben is rectangle Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC

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