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How to Identify and Unlock inherent potential within
Government Agencies to achieve

BETTER, FASTER & CHEAPER SERVICES
VISION
Better, Faster
Cheaper Services

SOCIETY WIN

TAX PAYER WIN

IMPROVE SERVICE
Quality & Coverage

REDUCE AVOIDABLE
Cost & Investment

Step 1.1

Step 1.2

Step 1.3

Step 2.1

Step 2.2

Step 2.3

Better

Faster

Cheaper

Better

Faster

Cheaper

Presented by

Dr. Alan Barnard
CEO, Goldratt Research Labs
24th October 2013
Research Question
What problem should be #1 on government’s priority list?
Real Gross Domestic Product
Year-over-Year Percent Change

10

World

8

Industrialized Economies

6

Emerging and Developing Economies

Expansion
4

2

Recession

*The IMF Defines Global Recession as
0 World GDP Growth of Less Than 3%...

Contraction
-2

-4
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Sources: International Monetary Fund and Payden & Rygel Estimates

Should the risk of a double dip recession be #1 priority?
What about the risk of “faster than expected recovery”?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 2
Outline of Presentation
1. A Looming Resource Shortage Crisis
–
–

Early warning signs of supply vs. demand gap in government agencies
Identifying avoidable causes

2. How Theory of Constraints can help to:
–
–

Identify inherent potential to achieve more in with less in less time
Providing Focusing and collaborative analysis process to identify the
system constraint and resolve conflicts blocking further improvements

3. Case Studies to do it Better, Faster, Cheaper…
–
–
–

DOING IT BETTER : Solid Waste Crisis in Africa (Surplus)
DOING IT FASTER : World ―Affordable Housing‖ Crisis (Shortage)
DOING IT CHEAPER : Funding Crisis for Emergency Relief (Shortage)

4. How to measure if we’re getting Better, Faster& Cheaper?
5. How YOU can help apply TOC in your organization?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 3
Dr. Eli Goldratt’s real Legacy

Standing on the shoulders of Giants
“Finally, and most importantly, I wanted to show that we can all be
outstanding scientists. The secret of being a good scientist, I
believe, lies not in our brain power. We have enough. We simply need
to look at reality and think logically and precisely about what we see.”
Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt
1948 - 2011

Dr. Goldratt, the creator of Theory of Constraints, said the two key abilities to
“being an outstanding scientist” are simply:
(STEP1) Have the courage to face inconsistencies between what we (expect to)
see and the way things are… and then
(STEP 2) Have the wisdom to challenge basic assumption(s) to resolve these
inconsistencies.

Let‘s start with an important inconsistency that affect us all…
…And then we can explore the basic assumptions that need to be
challenged and the ―How to‖ for making a significant breakthrough…

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 4
Why Change?
Is there a gap between our vision for humanity and reality…

“A better life for all…”
“For we must, together and without delay, begin to build

a better life for all…
This means creating jobs, building houses, providing education
and bringing peace & security for all”

Nelson Mandela, 1994.

Reality check 2013
How are we doing with realizing this vision..?
…in your country? ….in the world?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 5
Why Change?
More and more reports of resource scarcity crises…

NEWS AROUND THE WORLD
Water scarcity 'now
bigger threat than
financial crisis’

Looming energy crisis
after faster recovery
from recession

Airport Capacity Crisis:
A Critical bottleneck to

Sunday, 15 March 2009

Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009

Wednesday, Dec 16, 2009

Looming US Debt
ceiling crisis

China’s Population
Destiny: The Looming
Crisis for China and the
world

U.N. Warns of
Looming Food
Crisis by 2015

Monday, April 11,2011

Thursday, April 28,2011

further growth

Wednesday, Sept 1, 2010

What are the generic early warning signs and common cause(s) to these
resource scarcity crises from around the world?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 6
Why Change?
Early warnings of scarcity crises…Long queues, unreliable supply & high prices
High Unemployment/Poverty
Delays in Justice System
Health System Backlogs
Education & Skills Shortages
NOT GOOD

Examples

Demand > Supply

Port, Road, Rail Congestion
Growing Solid Waste Dumps
Housing Shortage
Emergency Relief Shortages

Food & Water shortages

Time

?????

In many important areas, demand is growing faster than supply…
Why have governments and private sector allowed this to happen and
can we find a way to create the SURPLUS capacity (and funding)
we need to catch up and to keep the gap closed?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 7
What to Change?
Mistakes In deciding WHEN to change (thinking we still have lots of time….)

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to
understand the exponential function”
Prof. Albert A. Bartlett
Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado

Quantity (e.g. Population)

Exponential Growth… then Sigmoidal
Limiting Factor: e.g. Finite Resource Capacity

“We have
(more than)
enough and
enough time –
no need to worry
(now)!

“Help!
We don’t have
enough and
don’t have
enough time…”

1st Turning
the Corner –
Speed up
Point

2nd Turning
the Corner –
Slow Down
Point

Time
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 8
What to Change?
Example to show full impact of Exponential Growth in Finite Environment
SIMPLE EXAMPLE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
• You are a (lonely) bacteria in a bottle (finite resource)
• Your strain of bacteria doubles every minute
(through cell division)
• At this growth rate, starting at 11am, it will take just
60mins to fill the bottle with bacteria (resulting in you
and 259 or 576 quadrillion tightly squashed
neighbors)
FEW SIMPLE QUESTIONS
1. At what time do we still have 75% of the available
space (finite resource) in the bottle left?
2. At what time will the alarm likely be raised that we
are running out of space?
3. How much more time will the discovery of 3 new
bottles give us?
4. What time is it for humanity in the consumption of
our scarce and finite resources?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

1–1
2–2
3–4
4–8
5 – 16
6 – 32
7 – 64
8 – 132
…
60 - 259

Slide 9
What to Change?
Exponential growth in Population – What will be the impact?
13
12
11
10

Alan @ 100

What time is it (for
humanity)?

Current Population Growth Rate = 1.2%
Doubling Time ≈ 60 years
Emerging Market GDP Growth = 6.5%
Doubling Time ≈ 11 years

9
UN
Projection

8
Human Population Billions

7

Alan @ 42

2011

6

2000

5

1987

4

Alan Born

1975

3

1960

2

1930

1

Black Death — The Plague

1800

UN
Populat
ion
Projecti
on after
2011

1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years
B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

…the looming resource crisis should not be a surprise (highly predictable)…for
how long has there been WARNINGS about this?
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100.

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 10
What to Change?
Reaching the Limits to (Population) Growth - Club of Rome/MIT Study 197)
Estimated
population without
collapse

World Oil
Production
Natural
Resources

Estimated
population
with collapse

Life
Expectancy

Population
Food
Pollution
1900
Copyright © 2006, Pearson Prentice Hall, Inc.

2000
Year

2013

2100

…so what can GOVERNMENTS do to prevent a resource scarcity crisis and
its devastating impact on our vision of ―a better life for all‖?
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 11
What to Change to?
CALL for ACTION – What we can and should do to help prevent scarcity crises
There are only really three (complimentary) ways to prevent any looming
resource scarcity crises:

1. Slow down population and urbanization growth rate
(demand) to ensure resources will last longer and more people can
improve their quality of life and life expectancy

2. Find ways to ―do more with less in less time‖ to get more out of
our scarcest and most finite resources (i.e. better exploit what we
have…and not waste it)

3. Accelerate the development of the necessary infrastructure to
meet demand…and secure financial & human capital for funding
these…

Here is how TOC can help do (2) and (3)…
Part 2

Introduction to
Theory of Constraints
How to use TOC to achieve BETTER,
FASTER and CHEAPER Service?

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

13
What to Change to?
5 Focusing Steps of Theory of Constraints to know WHAT to change/what NOT
“A chain is only as strong as its weakest link”
Step 0: Agree on the System GOAL
Step 1: IDENTIFY the System Constraint (WEAKEST LINK)
Step 2: Decide how to better EXPLOIT (not Waste) the System Constraint
Step 3: SUBORDINATE* everything to the above decision
Subordinate = CHANGE only RULES in conflict with decision on how to better exploit/not waste constraint
Step 4: ELEVATE the Constraint (get more of it)
Step 5: WARNING!!!! If in a previous step the constraint has moved, GO BACK to Step 1, - do not let
inertia become the constraint. (However, try not to reach Step 5 else you have to change rules)
Supply
Step 1
IDENTIFY the
Constraint

15/hr

12/hr

12/hr

10/hr

Step 3
Step 2
SUBORDINATE
Decide How to
EXPLOIT the constraint everything to this decision
GOAL 

EXPLOIT potential
for more Goal Units

PROTECT current
level of Constraint
Exploitation

↓ Overproduction / Multiitasking
↓ Rework
↓ Starvation/Blockage
↓ Setups/Downtime

Current level of
Constraint
Exploitation

+ VE

+ VE

Change

- VE

GOAL 

New Constraint
Exploitation Rules

Demand

Step 4
Elevate the Constraint

GOAL 
+ VE

Elevate

NOT

- VE

13/hr

Protective Capacity

New level of
Constraint
Exploitation

+ VE

Change

NOT

- VE

- VE

GOAL 

New Constraint
Elevation Rules

Step 5
If a constraint has been broken, Go back to Step 1

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 14
What to Change to?
How to achieve MORE with LESS in LESS TIME using TOC…
―In GOD we all trust…the rest must bring DATA!‖
Necessary Cost
or Investment

Dr. Edwards Deming

Unnecessary /Wasted
Cost or Investment
100%

CCR
Total Lead Time
∆LT GAP

―Touch‖ time

60%

∆T GAP

Lost
Throughput
(CCR Time)

Current System
Throughput

Delays / Unproductive time

1. Potential to ↑ Throughput (with same resources): 20 to 100%
Current Reality: System Throughput vs. Avail Constraint Capacity is typically <60%
Unlock Inherent Potential: Get Throughput = Capacity Constraint Potential + Capacity Buffer

2. Potential to ↓ Lead Time & ↑ DDP/Availability: 20 to 80%

Current Reality: “Touch Time vs. Total Lead Time” ratio is <20% and Typical DDP/Avail < 80%
Unlock Inherent Potential: Get Total Lead Time to be equal to Touch Time + Time Buffer

3. Potential to ↓ “Unnecessary” Costs/Investment”: 10 to 25%
Current Reality: Typical “Unnecessary Cost & Invent” / Total Costs & Invent is 10 to 30%
Unlock Inherent Potential: By doing (1) & (2) reduce Unnecessary Cost & Investment

Doing
MORE
BETTER
in
LESS TIME

FASTER

with
LESS
RESOURCE
CHEAPER

If we increase Flow Rate and reduce Flow Time we also see reductions in “expediting
related” costs and capex to ACHIEVE MORE with LESS in LESS TIME
How to cause the Change?
The inherent potential that can be unlocked by FOCUSING on Constraints…
A Review by independent academia of 80 global Theory of Constraint
Implementation Case Studies showed the following results:
Combined
Financial

Revenue/
Throughput,
On-Time-in-Full
Service Delivery

↑63%

↑44%

↓65%

↓ 70%

↓49%
Inventory
Levels

Cycle Times
Lead
Times

↑73%

Just imagine the impact on a country like
Lithuania if TOC can be applied on critical
projects like
infrastructure, agriculture, R&D etc.
All material © CMG &/or CMS, 2004

Source: The World of Theory of Constraints, Vicky Mabin & Steven Balderstone, St. Lucie Press, 1999
How to cause the Change?
Where should we focus on scarcest resource – management time/attention?.

Where do you think improvement is needed most?
• For-Profit Organizations (to ensure economic growth)
• Education System (to reduce critical Skills Shortages)
• Health System (to improve health and quality of life)
• Agriculture (to ensure Food Security)
• Mining (to ensure availability of natural resources)
• Energy (to fuel economic growth)
• Airports / Seaports / Road (to reduce congestion, delays)
• Accelerating time-to-market of new technologies/drugs
• ???
Part 3

Using TOC’s 5FS to achieve Better,
Faster, Cheaper Government
Case Studies showing how to do it Better, Faster, Cheaper…
1. Solid Waste Crisis in Africa  Achieving Better Quality & Coverage
2. World “Affordable Housing” Crisis  Achieving Faster Services
3. Funding Crisis for Emergency Relief  Achieving Cheaper Services

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 18
Developing an inclusive Engagement Model

Design Criteria

1. Applicability
• Robust & Scalable enough to help all types of organizations & individuals
identify & unlock inherent potential.

2. Adoption and Sustainability
• Must be based on a Systems Approach ( i.e. using latest insights and
developments in Theory of Constraints and Systems Thinking)
• Be inclusive of ALL key stakeholders, not just in involvement but in active
contribution.
• Transferability potential through ―Train-the-Trainer‖

3. Process Effectiveness & Efficiency
• Simpler & Faster: Understood by all & Take days, not weeks or months
• Better: Provides ―Actionable Information” on where to FOCUS scarce
resources in a way that consistently delivers significant & sustainable
results to reverse vicious cycle
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2013

Slide 19
TOC 5-Day Constraint & Conflict Analysis Roadmap

Finding and challenging limiting assumptions in inclusive way

Performance
Metric 1

Performance
Metric 2

Performance
Metric 3

STEP 1 (Day 1)
WHY CHANGE?
System Goal, Constraint, Gap & UDEs

DEMAND

UDE 5 (2%)
UDE 4 (3%)
UDE 3 (10%)
UDE 2 (15%)
UDE 1 (20%)

∆Impact on Goal Units?

STEP 4 (Day 4)
HOW TO CAUSE THE
CHANGE?

CURRENT
SUPPLY

STEP 2 (Day 2)
WHAT TO CHANGE?
Conflicts & Current Reality Tree

GAP?

STEP 5 (Day 5)
HOW TO MEASURE &
CREATE POOGI?

UDE 3
Conflicts

Need

Action

Need

Action

Action

Need

UDE 3

Goal
Need

Goal

Action

Need

UDE 5

Action

Action

Implementation Roadmap
Need

New Win/win Solution
in Place

Need

(and new START & STOP rules)

Yes, but…

OBS 5

IO 5
Yes, but…

OBS 3

Yes, but…

Yes, but…

IO 1

DE 3

Where we are now?

Need
Goal

Action

UDE 4

Need

Action

Action
Need

Stop

Need

Goal

DE 5

STOP
START

Core Conflict

DE 2

Yes, but…

IO 2

UDE 1
Conflicts

Action

Action

UDE 1

Future Reality Tree

IO 4
OBS 2

OBS 1

STEP 3 (Day 3)
TO WHAT TO CHANGE?

OBS 4

IO 3

Action

DE 4
DE 1

PUDE

New Win/win
Need

Yes, but…

START
Goal

Need

STOP
START

Need

UDE 2
Need

Goal

Need

Action

Action

Goal

Goal

UDE 2
Conflicts
Case Study 1 – Background

Solid Waste Crisis in African City Councils
• In January 2007, after a TOC Spearhead Conference in Bonn, a partnership
was formed between Goldratt Research Labs and InWEnt (Capacity Building
International, Germany)
• The Objective of the partnership was to test (through a series of selected
pilots) whether a simplified TOC approach can be used to help Cities
―Do more with Less in Less Time―
• The Pilots selected formed part of InWEnt‗s ―Global Cooperation for
Sustainable Urban Development― Program, 2005-09 done in cooperation with
UN-Habitat ―Sustainable Cities Programme― and UNEP ―Localizing Agenda 21―
• The Pilots Sites include cities from Zambia, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania and
involved the ―Solid Waste Management― and ―Water Supply Management―
Systems within these cities.
• The pilots were selected as current problems within Waste Management &
Water Supply had major negative consequences for millions of citizens and the
environment since the GAP between DEMAND and SUPPLY in city
infrastructure are not only very large but growing...
Case Study 1 – Background

Solid Waste Crisis in African City Councils
• In most countries, Governments are responsible for ensuring
that garbage is collected, transported and disposed of in a
safe and environmentally friendly manner.
• Common practice is for Private Contractors to collect waste
from private businesses and households in formal areas and
Community Based Enterprises to collect waste from informal
areas.
• But often in developing countries these services are not
extended to the very poor because they live in areas that are
difficult to access or they cannot pay for the service.
Case Study 1 – Background

Solid Waste Crisis in African City Councils
• As a result huge piles of rubbish can be found throughout
poor settlements, making poverty, persistent ill-health and low
environmental quality part of everyday life.

WARNING GIVEN TO TOC FACILITATORS

• There will be 50-60 participants, high distrust between
them, some will be there only to receive daily allowance and
traditionally there is high drop-out rate throughout workshop
Step 1 – Why Change?

Large & Growing GAP between Supply & Demand

Growth in
Waste Created (Demand) vs. Waste Collected (Supply)
2015
Population = 4,000,000

GAP2015
= 1800 t/day

2005
Population = 2,000,000

Independence
Population = 200,000

GAPtoday
= 700- 800
t/day
Waste
Collected

(Very) Ambitious Target = Close the GAP and keep in closed
Day 1 Review
Key Insights of Theory of Constraints

1. Organizations need to improve at the same
rate as what the demand for their product /
service is growing (the red curve)
2. Organizations must find ways to achieve this
improvement (Growth) without jeopardizing
Stability (i.e. every Change = System Improvement)
3. In order to achieve this, organizations should:
a.

b.

c.

FOCUS their limited resources on the System
Constraint or Weakest Link (using 5FS).
FOCUS on finding out to better EXPLOIT OR
ELEVATE the System Constraint (using TOC
Thinking Processes)
All stakeholders contribute to resolve conflicts
blocking them to contribute to better EXPLOIT and/or
ELEVATE system constraint, and identify and
overcome possible negatives of these changes
and/or implementation obstacles
Step 1 – Why Change?

The constraint and UDE’s that makes closing the GAP difficult
Citizens

Business

Inspectors

WASTE CREATION

CBE

Contractors

WASTE COLLECTION

Constraint?

The Problem(s)
UDE 8: Govt Depts lack of budget
UDE 7: Resident don’t (want to) pay
UDE 6: Service too expensive

GAP

UDE 5: People dump/burn illegally
700- Waste Bins/Skips avail
UDE 4: No800 ton/day of

“Root Causes”
Lack of awareness

Poor / No Enforcement

Waste not collected
UDE 3: Frequent Eq break down

No Equipment / too old

UDE 2: Cannot access all areas
UDE 1: No service in some areas

Low/No Subscription Rate

Actual Collection
= 200-300t/day

Inspectors

City Councils

WASTE DISPOSAL

Traditional
Solution(s)
Awareness Campaigns
Stricter enforcement of
By-Laws
Get external Funding to
buy/build necessary
infrastructure
More Awareness
Campaigns

i.e. THEY JUST NEED MORE MONEY and
MORE EDUCATION… 
Day 1 Summary of “Why Change?”

Your Undesirable Effects that make closing GAP difficult…

Complaint

Why it is Bad?

UDE making improvement Difficult

Stakeholder

Impact on rest of System

Some Franchise contractors don’t
meet demand even if residents pay

City looks dirty, becomes unattractive to visitors
and we don‘t get investments we need

Inadequate storage facilities in some
areas

Bins are overloaded / residents start disposing
waste with pits or fires causing pollution
Authorized contractors / CBE‘s do not get enough
income to make their business viable

No service provider in our area or (if
provided) Service provided is
unreliable

Civil
Society

Some people don‘t care – just
continue with indiscriminate dumping

Some residents use unauthorized
contractors / don‘t know authorized

City
Council

Residents get negative attitude, waste piles
up and all good starting efforts go to waste

Forced to use illegal alternatives to dispose
(pits/fires) or to dump

Service too expensive (we must
pay school fees. food etc)

Forced to use illegal alternatives to dispose
(pits/fires) or to dump

We pay but others don‘t

CBE can‘t afford to provide service and waste
piles up causing sick children etc

Even if we don‘t pay, nobody cares

No enforcement, encourages non payment
Day 1 Summary of “Why Change?”

Your Undesirable Effects that make closing GAP difficult…

Impact on rest of System
Takes long time to recover debt, Many
residence don’t subscribe and even those
that did stops then waste builds up

Low subscription by residents (cant
afford it , don‘t care or expect it for free)

Compromised economies of scale

Waste dumped in drains or next to roads
must be collected

Nobody pays for this – the more it happens the
more difficult to recover costs / waste piles up

No ―tax holidays‖ / no cheap finance

Cannot maintain or upgrade old equipment

Trucks cant access all the areas

Cant provide service (cant honor contract) &
waste piles up or illegal disposal / dumping

Some people just don‘t pay (think it
should be free or don‘t care)

Community
Based
Enterprise

Why it is Bad?

Lack of effective enforcement of the
law (cant collect debt)

Franchise
Contractor

Complaint
UDE making improvement Difficult

Stakeholder

Waste piles up, resulting in health &
environment risks and CBE not sustainable

Some people want to pay but cant
afford to

Can’t provide service which mean waste
piles up or illegal disposal / dumping at
night

Some people don‘t know they should pay
or don‘t know consequences

Cant provide service which mean waste piles
up or illegal disposal / dumping

Trucks cant access all the areas

Cant provide service which means waste piles
up or illegal disposal / dumping
Step 2 – What to Change?

Insights on finding the Core Conflict(s) that explain most UDEs

“Define a problem precisely and you are half way to a solution”
Alan’s Hypothesis: We have not “defined a problem precisely” unless we’ve defined the
pair of unresolved (systemic and symptomatic) conflicts related to the problem…

Example: The Problem: Very high finished Goods Inventory…
Check: Impact on Company as a whole?
Increase Working
Capital / Reduce
Cash Flow

Supply Chain
Manager
Be a Good
SCM

Maintain
Lowest
Cost/unit

Pressure to

Pressure to

Make to

Reduce

Forecast

Systemic Conflict
Reduce
Invent /
Working
Capital

Increase
Warehouse &
Distrib. Costs

Pressure to

Make only

to Order

Very High
Finished
Goods
Inventory
(WH Full)

Prices

Reduce
Inventory /
Working Capital

Symptomatic Conflict
Pressure to

NOT Reduce

Prices

Maintain fair
Margins

Sales
Manager
Be a Good
Sales
Manager
Step 2 – What to Change?

The Unresolved Conflicts associated with UDEs

Systemic Conflicts

UDE(s)
City Council

Not Enforce
By-Laws / Not
Educate more

Ensure
Resident pay /
Viable SWM
System

Be a Good
City Council

Not cause
Civil Unrest /
Not exceed
Budget

UDE 7:
Resident don’t
(want to) pay

Community
Based Enterprise
Be a Good
Citizen &
Parent

Dispose of
waste using
illegal means

(Food, Educ etc)

Be a Good
Citizen (help
make CBE
viable)

Only dispose
of waste with
legal means

UDE 5:
People dump
/burn illegally

Stop
providing
Service to
non-payers

Ensure
Viability of
WMU /
Contractors

Continue to
provide
service

Enforce Bylaws /
Educate more

Use Money
on only
Priorities

Symptomatic Conflicts

Ensure Health
for all

Increase Price
/ Stop
providing
service

Make CBE
Viable
Business

Not increase
Price /
Continue
service

Ensure
residents pay

Be a Good
City Council

Be a Good
Community
Based
Enterprise
Step 2 – What to Change?

The Unresolved Conflicts associated with UDEs

Systemic Conflicts

UDE(s)

Symptomatic Conflicts

Contractors
Not invest in
new/more
Trucks

Satisfy
Service
Agreement
with CC

Be a
Good
Contractor

Maintain
positive
cash-flow

Satisfy
Service
agreement
with CC

Not invest in
new / more
trucks

Invest in
new/more
trucks

UDE 3:
Frequent Truck
break downs

Invest in
new /more
Trucks

Maintain
positive
cash-flow

Use illegal
methods to
dispose of waste

Not allow
waste Buildup

Be a
Good
Contractor

Residents
Stay within
Budget
Be a good
City
Council
Provide
service to all
areas

Not add
more Infrastructure

Add
sufficient
infrastructure

UDE 1:
No service in
some/ most
areas

Use only
legal ways

Resident
don’t (want
to) pay

Be a Good
Citizen and
Parent
Day 3 Summary of “What to Change to?”

Breaking the Core Conflicts in Solid Waste Management System
Enforcement Conflict

Service Provider Conflict

Manage City Council
SWMU well

Manage Service
Provider /CBE well

now and in the future

now and in the future

Must not
Waste money or
Resources

Must have
Ensure
Compliance

Pressure to

Must

Must

Reduce Cost /
Risk

Meet Service
Demand/SLA

Pressure to

Pressure to

Pressure to

Don‘t Enforce
We have FAIR and (Self)
Enforce (Don‘t
(Tolerate/give more
tolerate nonENFORCEABLE By-Laws
time/educ)

compliance)

Not invest We know when & where to
/ spend
Invest / Spend more
moreinvest and when not to…

Pricing Conflict

Payment Conflict

Manage Pricing Authority
well

Be a Good Citizen
now and in the future

now and in the future

Must
Recover full cost
+ margin

Must
Increase income &
compliance

Must

Must

Not Waste money

Comply & get full
Service Benefit

Pressure to

on Pressure to
Price onWe Price basedPrice on Customer
Customer Perception of
Provider PoV
PoV
Value

Pressure to
Those

Pressure to
Citizen that can

Not to Pay (use and those that can’t, Pay
To
pay, pay
alternatives)

pay in kind.

(use legal method)
Day 4 - How to Cause the Change?
Overcoming Implementation “Yes, buts…”
YES BUT 2 - OBSTACLES? WIN:WIN SOLUTION
OBS1.1

New Fair &
Enforceable
By-laws not yet
drawn up

IO1.1
City Council
SWMU prepare
draft by-laws by

Enforcement Agency
INJ 1
We have FAIR and (Self)
ENFORCEABLE By-Laws

Jan08

YES BUT 1 - NEGATIVES?
INJ 1.1
Community
Leaders
appointed to
SWMU
committee

PUDE 1.1
Community
unrest due to
enforcement

Service Providers
OBS 2.1
OBS 2.2

IO 2.1

INJ 2
We know when & where to
invest and when not to…

IO 2.2
Pricing Authority

OBS 3.1

OBS 4.1
OBS 4.2

INJ 2.1

IO 3.1

IO 4.1
IO 4.2

INJ 3
We Price based on
Customer Perception of
Value

Good Citizens
INJ 4
Those Citizen that can
pay, pay and those that
can’t, pay in kind.

INJ 3.1

PUDE 2.1

PUDE 3.1

INJ 3.2

PUDE 3.2

INJ 4.1

PUDE 4.1

INJ 4.2

PUDE 4.2
Testing within the Public Sector
How do we apply the process in the Public Sector?

Participants representing all
stakeholders at the beginning…

The (nervously excited) facilitator
…

Active (and fun) participation in
the African Sun…

System Process Map, Conflicts & solutions developed by proud participants…
Testing within the Public Sector
What has been the Stakeholder feedback?
1. I’m Very grateful on my being able to fully participate. We have seen that with TOC, Goals are
possible (even if they look impossible) and that the key is to find win-win solutions and focus
on weakest link – City Councilor
2. I did not expect much but now have seen it is possible to work with all the stakeholders as our
real goal (to improve the lives of everyone in our community) is the same – Private Contractor
3. Discovered that we had a very big gap in our system. Previously thought we can only close it
by getting more / new equipment. Now Leant that I get more with the same equipment using
TOC approach - Private Contractor
4. I learned about that “cost of doing nothing” can be very high. In the health sector the “cost of
doing nothing” is a matter of life and death. TOC showed that optimizing our capacity can be
achieved even with less resources by improving the efficiency of available resources – Doctor
5. I learned the need for planning and that the impossible can be possible - Chairman of a
community settlement
6. TOC can even help to address the political issues – Councilor
7. My expectation was low at start of workshop, but have learned the need and benefit for
everybody’s (all stakeholders) participation using this TOC process- Council officer
8. learned that TOC is a window that gives a chance to look at the challenges we face in a
different perspective - University lecturer
Testing within the Public Sector
What has been the Stakeholder feedback?
9. Learned I should avoid multitasking and do one thing at a time - Hospital manager
10. Learned the importance of defining the problem precisely before dealing with it - Deputy mayor

11. Learned that the best solution comes by asking the right question – Councilor
12. Learned that the solution to our constraints is within ourselves – Contractor
13. Learned I should not wait for more/new resources but (using TOC) can start with what we have
to do more with the same resources – Habitat for Humanity officer
14. Revisited the pricing conflict and realized that there is a way of agreeing on the right price with
customers – Contractor
15. A long time since I have been to school – but learned to accept my limitations and focus on
exploiting what we have first before asking for more - Small contractor
16. The bottleneck is always on the top – so I could be the weakest link – Owner
17. I will go and find out the weakest link in the process I lead - Operations manager

18. I learned that if you can or you can‘t, you are right. – The coin has two sides and each is
necessary- Lecturer
19. I‘m now inspired to take a new direction in our company and (using TOC) think I can now find
out why we are not able to provide the service to the satisfaction of the client - Small operator
Independent Auditors Report on the results
achieved within the Pilot Projects
Lessons Learned & Next Steps

Moving from Analysis & Planning to Execution…
1. It is possible to “Do MORE with LESS in LESS TIME” using TOC’s 5FS
within Public Sector with all stakeholders…
by finding ways to close SUPPLY-DEMAND GAP from both sides quickly…
GAP
800 ton /day

Collected
200 ton/day

TODAY

GAP
400 ton /day
Waste
Collected
400 ton/day

AFTER “EXPLOIT”

100 ton /day
Waste
Collected
700 ton/day

AFTER “ELEVATE”

2. Three Important steps in analysis (which should not be skipped):
a)
b)
c)

Make sure ALL stakeholders are present/represented in workshops
Recognizing past achievements (but show current & future GAP)
Getting agreement which current/planned Projects can be stopped to release the capacity
/ budget needed to fully resource constraint focused projects

3. “Vision without Execution is a Hallucination”
Capacity Building (without follow-up and follow-through) will not deliver any significant
and sustainable results (to close GAP and keep it closed)
CASE STUDY 2
Using TOC to achieve

FASTER
Government services

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

39
World Housing Shortage Crisis
Facts from Habitat for Humanity
The world is experiencing a global housing crisis
• Worldwide, some 827.6 million people live in urban slums.1
• By 2020, it is estimated the world slum population will reach almost 1 billion.2
• About 50 percent of the world's population now live in urban areas.1
• Lack of clean water and sanitation claim the lives of more than 1.8 million young children every year.3

Decent, stable housing provides more than just a roof over someone’s head
• Stability for families and children.
• Sense of dignity and pride.
• Health, physical safety and security.
• Increase of educational and job prospects.

Housing must become a priority
• In many countries, the minimum wage is LESS than the rental cost of affordable housing
• As a result, the percentage of people without access to decent, stable housing is rising.
• Increasing the housing supply across the globe is essential.
• Adequate housing is vitally important to the health of the world‘s economies, communities and populations.
• If we are to succeed in the fight against poverty, we must support the expansion of housing both as policy and
as practice.
© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

40
HABITAT FOR HUMANITY WORLD SPEED RECORD

How TOC’s CCPM can help increase speed of house construction
• In 1999, a group using TOC‘s Critical Chain method, set a new ―Habitat for
Humanity World Speed Record‖ for completing a 4 Bedroom House
• Warren Jack who lead the team said "The technique of Goldratt's Critical Chain
technique was one of the two Key Success factors that enabled the Speedbuild
team to set a new Habitat World Record.
• The second was the wall construction method developed in New Zealand by
Laser Systems Ltd under the trademark "Laserbilt".
• The team used Goldratt‘s CCPM method and software to help identify the Critical
Chain in the Project and then to focus on identifying and eliminating planned
delays due to process/resource dependencies and execution delays due to multitasking and unsychronized priorities.
• The new world record was 3 Hours, 44 Minutes & 59 Seconds
• A documentary detailing the building of this Habitat For Humanity house was aired
in New Zealand on Easter Monday, April 5, 1999 at 8:30pm on TV1.

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

41
Australian Housing Shortage Crisis
Facts from National Housing Supply Council
• The Australian National Housing Supply Council released its third State
of Supply report, estimating a housing supply shortage of 214,700 dwellings. It
predicted that this shortage will reach 328,800 dwellings by 2015 and 640,200
dwellings by 2030.
• The quarterly number of ―completions‖ and the number of ―under-constructions‖
shown below illustrate the difference between how the industry reacts to the demand
and what the actual change in output of housing supply.
• As we can see, the actual output of the industry has not changed significantly during
last 25 years, while the number of dwellings under construction has had a significant
increase

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

42
Australian Housing Shortage Crisis
Facts from National Housing Supply Council

• The inconsistency between the trend of number of dwellings under construction and
number of completions shows that the house building industry has responded to the
higher demands by signing more contracts and accepting more work. However, it
could not produce higher number of houses and its output remained constant.
• This phenomenon indicates a situation in which limitation of production capacity does
not allow a system to produce more. The past ten years show that the industry has
reached its capacity and with its current structure, it cannot produce more dwellings than
this.
• Knowing that there is already a shortage in supply and demand will probably increase due
to population growth, the need for an increase in housing supply will be inevitable. This
cannot be achieved with the current production capacity and limited resources. Thus, the
only remaining way to improve the capacity would be through innovation and
finding better ways of using the same level of resources for producing more
dwellings

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

43
CRITICAL CHAIN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Challenging assumptions on how to do construction projects
Project A

A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 A1.1 A1.2

Project B

B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 B1.1 B1.2

Project C

C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 C1.1 C1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Each of these Projects represent the 3-phased construction project to build
a house with 10 main ―tasks‖ each taking 2 weeks = 20 weeks total duration

18 20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Scenario 1: Multi-Tasking
Blue

A1.1 B1.1 C1.1 A1.2 B1.2 C1.2 A1.3 B1.3 C1.3

Red

A1.1 B1.1 C1.1 A1.2 B1.2 C1.2 A1.3 B1.3 C1.3 A1.4 B1.4 C1.4 A1.5 B1.5 C1.5

Green

A1.1 B1.1 C1.1 A1.2 B1.2 C1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Project A Complete

Project A

A1.1

A1.2

A1.3 A1.1

A1.2

A1.3

A1.4

A1.5 A1.1

A1.2

Project B Complete

Project B

B1.1

B1.2

B1.3 B1.1

B1.2

B1.3

B1.4

B1.5 B1.1

B1.2

Project C Complete

Project C

C1.1

C1.2

C1.3 C1.1

C1.2

C1.3

C1.4

C1.5 C1.1

C1.2

Scenario 2: No Multi-Tasking
Blue

A1.1 A1.2 A1.3

Red

B1.1 B1.2 B1.3

A1.1 A1.2 A1.3

C1.1 C1.2 C1.3

B1.1 B1.2 B1.3

C1.1 C1.2 C1.3

A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5

Green

A1.1 A1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

B1.1 B1.2

18 20

22

24

26

28

C1.1 C1.2

30

32

34

36

38

A1.1 A1.2

40

42

44

46

Project A Complete

Project A

A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 A1.1 A1.2

SAVING IN TIME and TIME-SENSITIVE COST $$$

Project B Complete

Project B

B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 B1.1 B1.2

Project C Complete

Project C

C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 C1.1 C1.2

48

B1.1 B1.2

50

52

54

56

58

C1.1 C1.2

60
CASE STUDY 3
Using TOC to achieve

CHEAPER
Government services

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

45
What is the impact of BETTER + FASTER on
CHEAPER?
CHEAPER
The Total Cost per
Quality Service Unit
(should) go down
(even more)

Governments increase
QUALITY THROUGHPUT
with the same Resources

Governments are able to
increase the SERVICE
QUALITY & COVERAGE
with same resources

BETTER

Are there any other
ways TOC can help to
better exploit limited
Budgets?

Governments reduce
AVOIDABLE COSTS
due to reducing
rework, expediting, overti
me etc.

Governments are able to
increase SERVICE
SPEED with same
resources

FASTER
CASE 3: EMERGENCY RELIEF AGENCY

Reducing budget losses due to “use-it-or-lose-it” policy
Cash not used should be returned
Hungry People

Cash

Constraint

Central
Bank
Account

Region 1
Bank
Account

Suppliers

Region 1
Distr Center

Region 1
Emergency
Relief

Region 2
Bank
Account

Suppliers

Region 2
Distr Center

Region 2
Emergency
Relief

Region N
Bank
Account

Central
Cash Buffer

Suppliers

Region N
Distr Center

Region N
Emergency
Relief

Food

Donors
Cash / Food allocated based on Regional
Central
Food Buffer Forecast in $ and/or Tons of aid needed

Central
Distr
Center
Food Aid not used should be returned
IF there there is 1) a real fear of under-forecasting aid required (people could die) AND
2) an unwritten rule of ―Use-it-or-lose-it‖ THEN
How much of the excess CASH and FOOD will ever be returned to the Central buffers?

Share Success Stories
to secure more
donations / donors
HOW DO WE MEASURE
BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER?

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

48
Good Early Warning Measurements
What is the best way to measure if we are achieving BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER?

Cumulative Flow Diagrams
Higher
WIP
WIP

Longer
Supply LT

Supply
Lead Time
Time

Longer
Supply LT

Time

Time

QUALITY THROUGHPUT

PRODUCTIVITY

25% Late /
Not served

20%
15%

Operational Productivity = $T/$OE or QT/OE
Productivity

75% of On-time / Coverage

Higher
WIP

15%

10%

10%

5%
0-5d

5-10d

10-15d

15-20d 20-25d

25-30d

30-35d

35-40d

> 40d

Time in Days

Productivity = Rate at which system is generating goal units (Output or Quality Throughput)
Rate at which system is spend or investing money (Input or Operating Expenses)
SUMMARY OF KEY INSIGHTS

DOING IT BETTER
• What is the constraint to achieving better quality and coverage ? The Capacity Constraint or
Bottleneck … find it by looking for the backlog due to demand / supply gap…
• How to better exploit this constraint? Reduce capacity losses on bottleneck due to
starvation, blockage, downtime, rework etc. (capitalize on law of the weakest link)

DOING IT FASTER
• What is the constraint to increasing speed? Time to complete tasks on longest chain of
dependent tasks (Critical Chain)…
• How to better exploit constraint?: Reduce delays on critical chain due to multi-tasking,
waiting for decisions, unsynchronized priorities etc. (capitalize on law of improving flow)

DOING IT CHEAPER
• Where is the constraint? Available Budget
• How to better exploit constraint? Stop initiatives that wont contribute to the highest priority
objectives and remove any forms of “Use it or lose it” (capitalize on law of aggregation).
ABOUT THE PRESENTERS
Dr. Alan Barnard (PhD)

Dr. Alan Barnard is one of the leading experts in the world in Theory
of Constraints (TOC) frequently worked with Dr. Eli Goldratt, creator
of Theory of Constraints on large and complex projects around the
world. He is the CEO of Goldratt Research Labs (USA), Chairman of
Realization Africa (RSA), African Phosphates (RSA) and The
Odyssey Institute (USA). Alan is also a board member of TOCICO
and the Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt Foundation.
In 2009, Alan was awarded a PhD in Management of Technology &
Innovation, from the Da Vinci Institute in 2009 with a thesis titled
“How to identify and unlock inherent potential within organizations
(private & public) and individuals?”. Alan is also the author of 2
chapters in the McGraw Hill published Theory of Constraints
Handbook.
Alan is a past-President of SAPICS (2000 to 2002) and past-President of TOCICO (2003 to
2005) and serve on the judging panels of the Logistics Achiever Awards and Technology
Top 100.
He has worked with global companies such as ABB, BHP, Cisco, SAP, Random House
Publishing, Tata in the Private sector and also with UN DP, UN WFP and InWent in the
public sector on applying for example Theory of Constraints to City Councils in
Developing Countries in the Public Sector to help them identify and unlock inherent
potential to achieve more with the same resources in less time.
Author Contact Details

• alan@goldrattresearchlabs.com
• www.goldrattresearchlabs.com
• www.harmonytoc.com

© Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013

52

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How to Identify and Unlock inherent potential within government to achieve more with less in less time - Alan Barnard @ PSE 2013 Vilnius

  • 1. How to Identify and Unlock inherent potential within Government Agencies to achieve BETTER, FASTER & CHEAPER SERVICES VISION Better, Faster Cheaper Services SOCIETY WIN TAX PAYER WIN IMPROVE SERVICE Quality & Coverage REDUCE AVOIDABLE Cost & Investment Step 1.1 Step 1.2 Step 1.3 Step 2.1 Step 2.2 Step 2.3 Better Faster Cheaper Better Faster Cheaper Presented by Dr. Alan Barnard CEO, Goldratt Research Labs 24th October 2013
  • 2. Research Question What problem should be #1 on government’s priority list? Real Gross Domestic Product Year-over-Year Percent Change 10 World 8 Industrialized Economies 6 Emerging and Developing Economies Expansion 4 2 Recession *The IMF Defines Global Recession as 0 World GDP Growth of Less Than 3%... Contraction -2 -4 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sources: International Monetary Fund and Payden & Rygel Estimates Should the risk of a double dip recession be #1 priority? What about the risk of “faster than expected recovery”? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 2
  • 3. Outline of Presentation 1. A Looming Resource Shortage Crisis – – Early warning signs of supply vs. demand gap in government agencies Identifying avoidable causes 2. How Theory of Constraints can help to: – – Identify inherent potential to achieve more in with less in less time Providing Focusing and collaborative analysis process to identify the system constraint and resolve conflicts blocking further improvements 3. Case Studies to do it Better, Faster, Cheaper… – – – DOING IT BETTER : Solid Waste Crisis in Africa (Surplus) DOING IT FASTER : World ―Affordable Housing‖ Crisis (Shortage) DOING IT CHEAPER : Funding Crisis for Emergency Relief (Shortage) 4. How to measure if we’re getting Better, Faster& Cheaper? 5. How YOU can help apply TOC in your organization? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 3
  • 4. Dr. Eli Goldratt’s real Legacy Standing on the shoulders of Giants “Finally, and most importantly, I wanted to show that we can all be outstanding scientists. The secret of being a good scientist, I believe, lies not in our brain power. We have enough. We simply need to look at reality and think logically and precisely about what we see.” Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt 1948 - 2011 Dr. Goldratt, the creator of Theory of Constraints, said the two key abilities to “being an outstanding scientist” are simply: (STEP1) Have the courage to face inconsistencies between what we (expect to) see and the way things are… and then (STEP 2) Have the wisdom to challenge basic assumption(s) to resolve these inconsistencies. Let‘s start with an important inconsistency that affect us all… …And then we can explore the basic assumptions that need to be challenged and the ―How to‖ for making a significant breakthrough… © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 4
  • 5. Why Change? Is there a gap between our vision for humanity and reality… “A better life for all…” “For we must, together and without delay, begin to build a better life for all… This means creating jobs, building houses, providing education and bringing peace & security for all” Nelson Mandela, 1994. Reality check 2013 How are we doing with realizing this vision..? …in your country? ….in the world? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 5
  • 6. Why Change? More and more reports of resource scarcity crises… NEWS AROUND THE WORLD Water scarcity 'now bigger threat than financial crisis’ Looming energy crisis after faster recovery from recession Airport Capacity Crisis: A Critical bottleneck to Sunday, 15 March 2009 Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 Wednesday, Dec 16, 2009 Looming US Debt ceiling crisis China’s Population Destiny: The Looming Crisis for China and the world U.N. Warns of Looming Food Crisis by 2015 Monday, April 11,2011 Thursday, April 28,2011 further growth Wednesday, Sept 1, 2010 What are the generic early warning signs and common cause(s) to these resource scarcity crises from around the world? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 6
  • 7. Why Change? Early warnings of scarcity crises…Long queues, unreliable supply & high prices High Unemployment/Poverty Delays in Justice System Health System Backlogs Education & Skills Shortages NOT GOOD Examples Demand > Supply Port, Road, Rail Congestion Growing Solid Waste Dumps Housing Shortage Emergency Relief Shortages Food & Water shortages Time ????? In many important areas, demand is growing faster than supply… Why have governments and private sector allowed this to happen and can we find a way to create the SURPLUS capacity (and funding) we need to catch up and to keep the gap closed? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 7
  • 8. What to Change? Mistakes In deciding WHEN to change (thinking we still have lots of time….) “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function” Prof. Albert A. Bartlett Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado Quantity (e.g. Population) Exponential Growth… then Sigmoidal Limiting Factor: e.g. Finite Resource Capacity “We have (more than) enough and enough time – no need to worry (now)! “Help! We don’t have enough and don’t have enough time…” 1st Turning the Corner – Speed up Point 2nd Turning the Corner – Slow Down Point Time © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 8
  • 9. What to Change? Example to show full impact of Exponential Growth in Finite Environment SIMPLE EXAMPLE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH • You are a (lonely) bacteria in a bottle (finite resource) • Your strain of bacteria doubles every minute (through cell division) • At this growth rate, starting at 11am, it will take just 60mins to fill the bottle with bacteria (resulting in you and 259 or 576 quadrillion tightly squashed neighbors) FEW SIMPLE QUESTIONS 1. At what time do we still have 75% of the available space (finite resource) in the bottle left? 2. At what time will the alarm likely be raised that we are running out of space? 3. How much more time will the discovery of 3 new bottles give us? 4. What time is it for humanity in the consumption of our scarce and finite resources? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 1–1 2–2 3–4 4–8 5 – 16 6 – 32 7 – 64 8 – 132 … 60 - 259 Slide 9
  • 10. What to Change? Exponential growth in Population – What will be the impact? 13 12 11 10 Alan @ 100 What time is it (for humanity)? Current Population Growth Rate = 1.2% Doubling Time ≈ 60 years Emerging Market GDP Growth = 6.5% Doubling Time ≈ 11 years 9 UN Projection 8 Human Population Billions 7 Alan @ 42 2011 6 2000 5 1987 4 Alan Born 1975 3 1960 2 1930 1 Black Death — The Plague 1800 UN Populat ion Projecti on after 2011 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 …the looming resource crisis should not be a surprise (highly predictable)…for how long has there been WARNINGS about this? Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100. © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 10
  • 11. What to Change? Reaching the Limits to (Population) Growth - Club of Rome/MIT Study 197) Estimated population without collapse World Oil Production Natural Resources Estimated population with collapse Life Expectancy Population Food Pollution 1900 Copyright © 2006, Pearson Prentice Hall, Inc. 2000 Year 2013 2100 …so what can GOVERNMENTS do to prevent a resource scarcity crisis and its devastating impact on our vision of ―a better life for all‖? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 11
  • 12. What to Change to? CALL for ACTION – What we can and should do to help prevent scarcity crises There are only really three (complimentary) ways to prevent any looming resource scarcity crises: 1. Slow down population and urbanization growth rate (demand) to ensure resources will last longer and more people can improve their quality of life and life expectancy 2. Find ways to ―do more with less in less time‖ to get more out of our scarcest and most finite resources (i.e. better exploit what we have…and not waste it) 3. Accelerate the development of the necessary infrastructure to meet demand…and secure financial & human capital for funding these… Here is how TOC can help do (2) and (3)…
  • 13. Part 2 Introduction to Theory of Constraints How to use TOC to achieve BETTER, FASTER and CHEAPER Service? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 13
  • 14. What to Change to? 5 Focusing Steps of Theory of Constraints to know WHAT to change/what NOT “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link” Step 0: Agree on the System GOAL Step 1: IDENTIFY the System Constraint (WEAKEST LINK) Step 2: Decide how to better EXPLOIT (not Waste) the System Constraint Step 3: SUBORDINATE* everything to the above decision Subordinate = CHANGE only RULES in conflict with decision on how to better exploit/not waste constraint Step 4: ELEVATE the Constraint (get more of it) Step 5: WARNING!!!! If in a previous step the constraint has moved, GO BACK to Step 1, - do not let inertia become the constraint. (However, try not to reach Step 5 else you have to change rules) Supply Step 1 IDENTIFY the Constraint 15/hr 12/hr 12/hr 10/hr Step 3 Step 2 SUBORDINATE Decide How to EXPLOIT the constraint everything to this decision GOAL  EXPLOIT potential for more Goal Units PROTECT current level of Constraint Exploitation ↓ Overproduction / Multiitasking ↓ Rework ↓ Starvation/Blockage ↓ Setups/Downtime Current level of Constraint Exploitation + VE + VE Change - VE GOAL  New Constraint Exploitation Rules Demand Step 4 Elevate the Constraint GOAL  + VE Elevate NOT - VE 13/hr Protective Capacity New level of Constraint Exploitation + VE Change NOT - VE - VE GOAL  New Constraint Elevation Rules Step 5 If a constraint has been broken, Go back to Step 1 © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 14
  • 15. What to Change to? How to achieve MORE with LESS in LESS TIME using TOC… ―In GOD we all trust…the rest must bring DATA!‖ Necessary Cost or Investment Dr. Edwards Deming Unnecessary /Wasted Cost or Investment 100% CCR Total Lead Time ∆LT GAP ―Touch‖ time 60% ∆T GAP Lost Throughput (CCR Time) Current System Throughput Delays / Unproductive time 1. Potential to ↑ Throughput (with same resources): 20 to 100% Current Reality: System Throughput vs. Avail Constraint Capacity is typically <60% Unlock Inherent Potential: Get Throughput = Capacity Constraint Potential + Capacity Buffer 2. Potential to ↓ Lead Time & ↑ DDP/Availability: 20 to 80% Current Reality: “Touch Time vs. Total Lead Time” ratio is <20% and Typical DDP/Avail < 80% Unlock Inherent Potential: Get Total Lead Time to be equal to Touch Time + Time Buffer 3. Potential to ↓ “Unnecessary” Costs/Investment”: 10 to 25% Current Reality: Typical “Unnecessary Cost & Invent” / Total Costs & Invent is 10 to 30% Unlock Inherent Potential: By doing (1) & (2) reduce Unnecessary Cost & Investment Doing MORE BETTER in LESS TIME FASTER with LESS RESOURCE CHEAPER If we increase Flow Rate and reduce Flow Time we also see reductions in “expediting related” costs and capex to ACHIEVE MORE with LESS in LESS TIME
  • 16. How to cause the Change? The inherent potential that can be unlocked by FOCUSING on Constraints… A Review by independent academia of 80 global Theory of Constraint Implementation Case Studies showed the following results: Combined Financial Revenue/ Throughput, On-Time-in-Full Service Delivery ↑63% ↑44% ↓65% ↓ 70% ↓49% Inventory Levels Cycle Times Lead Times ↑73% Just imagine the impact on a country like Lithuania if TOC can be applied on critical projects like infrastructure, agriculture, R&D etc. All material © CMG &/or CMS, 2004 Source: The World of Theory of Constraints, Vicky Mabin & Steven Balderstone, St. Lucie Press, 1999
  • 17. How to cause the Change? Where should we focus on scarcest resource – management time/attention?. Where do you think improvement is needed most? • For-Profit Organizations (to ensure economic growth) • Education System (to reduce critical Skills Shortages) • Health System (to improve health and quality of life) • Agriculture (to ensure Food Security) • Mining (to ensure availability of natural resources) • Energy (to fuel economic growth) • Airports / Seaports / Road (to reduce congestion, delays) • Accelerating time-to-market of new technologies/drugs • ???
  • 18. Part 3 Using TOC’s 5FS to achieve Better, Faster, Cheaper Government Case Studies showing how to do it Better, Faster, Cheaper… 1. Solid Waste Crisis in Africa  Achieving Better Quality & Coverage 2. World “Affordable Housing” Crisis  Achieving Faster Services 3. Funding Crisis for Emergency Relief  Achieving Cheaper Services © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 18
  • 19. Developing an inclusive Engagement Model Design Criteria 1. Applicability • Robust & Scalable enough to help all types of organizations & individuals identify & unlock inherent potential. 2. Adoption and Sustainability • Must be based on a Systems Approach ( i.e. using latest insights and developments in Theory of Constraints and Systems Thinking) • Be inclusive of ALL key stakeholders, not just in involvement but in active contribution. • Transferability potential through ―Train-the-Trainer‖ 3. Process Effectiveness & Efficiency • Simpler & Faster: Understood by all & Take days, not weeks or months • Better: Provides ―Actionable Information” on where to FOCUS scarce resources in a way that consistently delivers significant & sustainable results to reverse vicious cycle © Goldratt Research Labs, 2013 Slide 19
  • 20. TOC 5-Day Constraint & Conflict Analysis Roadmap Finding and challenging limiting assumptions in inclusive way Performance Metric 1 Performance Metric 2 Performance Metric 3 STEP 1 (Day 1) WHY CHANGE? System Goal, Constraint, Gap & UDEs DEMAND UDE 5 (2%) UDE 4 (3%) UDE 3 (10%) UDE 2 (15%) UDE 1 (20%) ∆Impact on Goal Units? STEP 4 (Day 4) HOW TO CAUSE THE CHANGE? CURRENT SUPPLY STEP 2 (Day 2) WHAT TO CHANGE? Conflicts & Current Reality Tree GAP? STEP 5 (Day 5) HOW TO MEASURE & CREATE POOGI? UDE 3 Conflicts Need Action Need Action Action Need UDE 3 Goal Need Goal Action Need UDE 5 Action Action Implementation Roadmap Need New Win/win Solution in Place Need (and new START & STOP rules) Yes, but… OBS 5 IO 5 Yes, but… OBS 3 Yes, but… Yes, but… IO 1 DE 3 Where we are now? Need Goal Action UDE 4 Need Action Action Need Stop Need Goal DE 5 STOP START Core Conflict DE 2 Yes, but… IO 2 UDE 1 Conflicts Action Action UDE 1 Future Reality Tree IO 4 OBS 2 OBS 1 STEP 3 (Day 3) TO WHAT TO CHANGE? OBS 4 IO 3 Action DE 4 DE 1 PUDE New Win/win Need Yes, but… START Goal Need STOP START Need UDE 2 Need Goal Need Action Action Goal Goal UDE 2 Conflicts
  • 21. Case Study 1 – Background Solid Waste Crisis in African City Councils • In January 2007, after a TOC Spearhead Conference in Bonn, a partnership was formed between Goldratt Research Labs and InWEnt (Capacity Building International, Germany) • The Objective of the partnership was to test (through a series of selected pilots) whether a simplified TOC approach can be used to help Cities ―Do more with Less in Less Time― • The Pilots selected formed part of InWEnt‗s ―Global Cooperation for Sustainable Urban Development― Program, 2005-09 done in cooperation with UN-Habitat ―Sustainable Cities Programme― and UNEP ―Localizing Agenda 21― • The Pilots Sites include cities from Zambia, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania and involved the ―Solid Waste Management― and ―Water Supply Management― Systems within these cities. • The pilots were selected as current problems within Waste Management & Water Supply had major negative consequences for millions of citizens and the environment since the GAP between DEMAND and SUPPLY in city infrastructure are not only very large but growing...
  • 22. Case Study 1 – Background Solid Waste Crisis in African City Councils • In most countries, Governments are responsible for ensuring that garbage is collected, transported and disposed of in a safe and environmentally friendly manner. • Common practice is for Private Contractors to collect waste from private businesses and households in formal areas and Community Based Enterprises to collect waste from informal areas. • But often in developing countries these services are not extended to the very poor because they live in areas that are difficult to access or they cannot pay for the service.
  • 23. Case Study 1 – Background Solid Waste Crisis in African City Councils • As a result huge piles of rubbish can be found throughout poor settlements, making poverty, persistent ill-health and low environmental quality part of everyday life. WARNING GIVEN TO TOC FACILITATORS • There will be 50-60 participants, high distrust between them, some will be there only to receive daily allowance and traditionally there is high drop-out rate throughout workshop
  • 24. Step 1 – Why Change? Large & Growing GAP between Supply & Demand Growth in Waste Created (Demand) vs. Waste Collected (Supply) 2015 Population = 4,000,000 GAP2015 = 1800 t/day 2005 Population = 2,000,000 Independence Population = 200,000 GAPtoday = 700- 800 t/day Waste Collected (Very) Ambitious Target = Close the GAP and keep in closed
  • 25. Day 1 Review Key Insights of Theory of Constraints 1. Organizations need to improve at the same rate as what the demand for their product / service is growing (the red curve) 2. Organizations must find ways to achieve this improvement (Growth) without jeopardizing Stability (i.e. every Change = System Improvement) 3. In order to achieve this, organizations should: a. b. c. FOCUS their limited resources on the System Constraint or Weakest Link (using 5FS). FOCUS on finding out to better EXPLOIT OR ELEVATE the System Constraint (using TOC Thinking Processes) All stakeholders contribute to resolve conflicts blocking them to contribute to better EXPLOIT and/or ELEVATE system constraint, and identify and overcome possible negatives of these changes and/or implementation obstacles
  • 26. Step 1 – Why Change? The constraint and UDE’s that makes closing the GAP difficult Citizens Business Inspectors WASTE CREATION CBE Contractors WASTE COLLECTION Constraint? The Problem(s) UDE 8: Govt Depts lack of budget UDE 7: Resident don’t (want to) pay UDE 6: Service too expensive GAP UDE 5: People dump/burn illegally 700- Waste Bins/Skips avail UDE 4: No800 ton/day of “Root Causes” Lack of awareness Poor / No Enforcement Waste not collected UDE 3: Frequent Eq break down No Equipment / too old UDE 2: Cannot access all areas UDE 1: No service in some areas Low/No Subscription Rate Actual Collection = 200-300t/day Inspectors City Councils WASTE DISPOSAL Traditional Solution(s) Awareness Campaigns Stricter enforcement of By-Laws Get external Funding to buy/build necessary infrastructure More Awareness Campaigns i.e. THEY JUST NEED MORE MONEY and MORE EDUCATION… 
  • 27. Day 1 Summary of “Why Change?” Your Undesirable Effects that make closing GAP difficult… Complaint Why it is Bad? UDE making improvement Difficult Stakeholder Impact on rest of System Some Franchise contractors don’t meet demand even if residents pay City looks dirty, becomes unattractive to visitors and we don‘t get investments we need Inadequate storage facilities in some areas Bins are overloaded / residents start disposing waste with pits or fires causing pollution Authorized contractors / CBE‘s do not get enough income to make their business viable No service provider in our area or (if provided) Service provided is unreliable Civil Society Some people don‘t care – just continue with indiscriminate dumping Some residents use unauthorized contractors / don‘t know authorized City Council Residents get negative attitude, waste piles up and all good starting efforts go to waste Forced to use illegal alternatives to dispose (pits/fires) or to dump Service too expensive (we must pay school fees. food etc) Forced to use illegal alternatives to dispose (pits/fires) or to dump We pay but others don‘t CBE can‘t afford to provide service and waste piles up causing sick children etc Even if we don‘t pay, nobody cares No enforcement, encourages non payment
  • 28. Day 1 Summary of “Why Change?” Your Undesirable Effects that make closing GAP difficult… Impact on rest of System Takes long time to recover debt, Many residence don’t subscribe and even those that did stops then waste builds up Low subscription by residents (cant afford it , don‘t care or expect it for free) Compromised economies of scale Waste dumped in drains or next to roads must be collected Nobody pays for this – the more it happens the more difficult to recover costs / waste piles up No ―tax holidays‖ / no cheap finance Cannot maintain or upgrade old equipment Trucks cant access all the areas Cant provide service (cant honor contract) & waste piles up or illegal disposal / dumping Some people just don‘t pay (think it should be free or don‘t care) Community Based Enterprise Why it is Bad? Lack of effective enforcement of the law (cant collect debt) Franchise Contractor Complaint UDE making improvement Difficult Stakeholder Waste piles up, resulting in health & environment risks and CBE not sustainable Some people want to pay but cant afford to Can’t provide service which mean waste piles up or illegal disposal / dumping at night Some people don‘t know they should pay or don‘t know consequences Cant provide service which mean waste piles up or illegal disposal / dumping Trucks cant access all the areas Cant provide service which means waste piles up or illegal disposal / dumping
  • 29. Step 2 – What to Change? Insights on finding the Core Conflict(s) that explain most UDEs “Define a problem precisely and you are half way to a solution” Alan’s Hypothesis: We have not “defined a problem precisely” unless we’ve defined the pair of unresolved (systemic and symptomatic) conflicts related to the problem… Example: The Problem: Very high finished Goods Inventory… Check: Impact on Company as a whole? Increase Working Capital / Reduce Cash Flow Supply Chain Manager Be a Good SCM Maintain Lowest Cost/unit Pressure to Pressure to Make to Reduce Forecast Systemic Conflict Reduce Invent / Working Capital Increase Warehouse & Distrib. Costs Pressure to Make only to Order Very High Finished Goods Inventory (WH Full) Prices Reduce Inventory / Working Capital Symptomatic Conflict Pressure to NOT Reduce Prices Maintain fair Margins Sales Manager Be a Good Sales Manager
  • 30. Step 2 – What to Change? The Unresolved Conflicts associated with UDEs Systemic Conflicts UDE(s) City Council Not Enforce By-Laws / Not Educate more Ensure Resident pay / Viable SWM System Be a Good City Council Not cause Civil Unrest / Not exceed Budget UDE 7: Resident don’t (want to) pay Community Based Enterprise Be a Good Citizen & Parent Dispose of waste using illegal means (Food, Educ etc) Be a Good Citizen (help make CBE viable) Only dispose of waste with legal means UDE 5: People dump /burn illegally Stop providing Service to non-payers Ensure Viability of WMU / Contractors Continue to provide service Enforce Bylaws / Educate more Use Money on only Priorities Symptomatic Conflicts Ensure Health for all Increase Price / Stop providing service Make CBE Viable Business Not increase Price / Continue service Ensure residents pay Be a Good City Council Be a Good Community Based Enterprise
  • 31. Step 2 – What to Change? The Unresolved Conflicts associated with UDEs Systemic Conflicts UDE(s) Symptomatic Conflicts Contractors Not invest in new/more Trucks Satisfy Service Agreement with CC Be a Good Contractor Maintain positive cash-flow Satisfy Service agreement with CC Not invest in new / more trucks Invest in new/more trucks UDE 3: Frequent Truck break downs Invest in new /more Trucks Maintain positive cash-flow Use illegal methods to dispose of waste Not allow waste Buildup Be a Good Contractor Residents Stay within Budget Be a good City Council Provide service to all areas Not add more Infrastructure Add sufficient infrastructure UDE 1: No service in some/ most areas Use only legal ways Resident don’t (want to) pay Be a Good Citizen and Parent
  • 32. Day 3 Summary of “What to Change to?” Breaking the Core Conflicts in Solid Waste Management System Enforcement Conflict Service Provider Conflict Manage City Council SWMU well Manage Service Provider /CBE well now and in the future now and in the future Must not Waste money or Resources Must have Ensure Compliance Pressure to Must Must Reduce Cost / Risk Meet Service Demand/SLA Pressure to Pressure to Pressure to Don‘t Enforce We have FAIR and (Self) Enforce (Don‘t (Tolerate/give more tolerate nonENFORCEABLE By-Laws time/educ) compliance) Not invest We know when & where to / spend Invest / Spend more moreinvest and when not to… Pricing Conflict Payment Conflict Manage Pricing Authority well Be a Good Citizen now and in the future now and in the future Must Recover full cost + margin Must Increase income & compliance Must Must Not Waste money Comply & get full Service Benefit Pressure to on Pressure to Price onWe Price basedPrice on Customer Customer Perception of Provider PoV PoV Value Pressure to Those Pressure to Citizen that can Not to Pay (use and those that can’t, Pay To pay, pay alternatives) pay in kind. (use legal method)
  • 33. Day 4 - How to Cause the Change? Overcoming Implementation “Yes, buts…” YES BUT 2 - OBSTACLES? WIN:WIN SOLUTION OBS1.1 New Fair & Enforceable By-laws not yet drawn up IO1.1 City Council SWMU prepare draft by-laws by Enforcement Agency INJ 1 We have FAIR and (Self) ENFORCEABLE By-Laws Jan08 YES BUT 1 - NEGATIVES? INJ 1.1 Community Leaders appointed to SWMU committee PUDE 1.1 Community unrest due to enforcement Service Providers OBS 2.1 OBS 2.2 IO 2.1 INJ 2 We know when & where to invest and when not to… IO 2.2 Pricing Authority OBS 3.1 OBS 4.1 OBS 4.2 INJ 2.1 IO 3.1 IO 4.1 IO 4.2 INJ 3 We Price based on Customer Perception of Value Good Citizens INJ 4 Those Citizen that can pay, pay and those that can’t, pay in kind. INJ 3.1 PUDE 2.1 PUDE 3.1 INJ 3.2 PUDE 3.2 INJ 4.1 PUDE 4.1 INJ 4.2 PUDE 4.2
  • 34. Testing within the Public Sector How do we apply the process in the Public Sector? Participants representing all stakeholders at the beginning… The (nervously excited) facilitator … Active (and fun) participation in the African Sun… System Process Map, Conflicts & solutions developed by proud participants…
  • 35. Testing within the Public Sector What has been the Stakeholder feedback? 1. I’m Very grateful on my being able to fully participate. We have seen that with TOC, Goals are possible (even if they look impossible) and that the key is to find win-win solutions and focus on weakest link – City Councilor 2. I did not expect much but now have seen it is possible to work with all the stakeholders as our real goal (to improve the lives of everyone in our community) is the same – Private Contractor 3. Discovered that we had a very big gap in our system. Previously thought we can only close it by getting more / new equipment. Now Leant that I get more with the same equipment using TOC approach - Private Contractor 4. I learned about that “cost of doing nothing” can be very high. In the health sector the “cost of doing nothing” is a matter of life and death. TOC showed that optimizing our capacity can be achieved even with less resources by improving the efficiency of available resources – Doctor 5. I learned the need for planning and that the impossible can be possible - Chairman of a community settlement 6. TOC can even help to address the political issues – Councilor 7. My expectation was low at start of workshop, but have learned the need and benefit for everybody’s (all stakeholders) participation using this TOC process- Council officer 8. learned that TOC is a window that gives a chance to look at the challenges we face in a different perspective - University lecturer
  • 36. Testing within the Public Sector What has been the Stakeholder feedback? 9. Learned I should avoid multitasking and do one thing at a time - Hospital manager 10. Learned the importance of defining the problem precisely before dealing with it - Deputy mayor 11. Learned that the best solution comes by asking the right question – Councilor 12. Learned that the solution to our constraints is within ourselves – Contractor 13. Learned I should not wait for more/new resources but (using TOC) can start with what we have to do more with the same resources – Habitat for Humanity officer 14. Revisited the pricing conflict and realized that there is a way of agreeing on the right price with customers – Contractor 15. A long time since I have been to school – but learned to accept my limitations and focus on exploiting what we have first before asking for more - Small contractor 16. The bottleneck is always on the top – so I could be the weakest link – Owner 17. I will go and find out the weakest link in the process I lead - Operations manager 18. I learned that if you can or you can‘t, you are right. – The coin has two sides and each is necessary- Lecturer 19. I‘m now inspired to take a new direction in our company and (using TOC) think I can now find out why we are not able to provide the service to the satisfaction of the client - Small operator
  • 37. Independent Auditors Report on the results achieved within the Pilot Projects
  • 38. Lessons Learned & Next Steps Moving from Analysis & Planning to Execution… 1. It is possible to “Do MORE with LESS in LESS TIME” using TOC’s 5FS within Public Sector with all stakeholders… by finding ways to close SUPPLY-DEMAND GAP from both sides quickly… GAP 800 ton /day Collected 200 ton/day TODAY GAP 400 ton /day Waste Collected 400 ton/day AFTER “EXPLOIT” 100 ton /day Waste Collected 700 ton/day AFTER “ELEVATE” 2. Three Important steps in analysis (which should not be skipped): a) b) c) Make sure ALL stakeholders are present/represented in workshops Recognizing past achievements (but show current & future GAP) Getting agreement which current/planned Projects can be stopped to release the capacity / budget needed to fully resource constraint focused projects 3. “Vision without Execution is a Hallucination” Capacity Building (without follow-up and follow-through) will not deliver any significant and sustainable results (to close GAP and keep it closed)
  • 39. CASE STUDY 2 Using TOC to achieve FASTER Government services © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 39
  • 40. World Housing Shortage Crisis Facts from Habitat for Humanity The world is experiencing a global housing crisis • Worldwide, some 827.6 million people live in urban slums.1 • By 2020, it is estimated the world slum population will reach almost 1 billion.2 • About 50 percent of the world's population now live in urban areas.1 • Lack of clean water and sanitation claim the lives of more than 1.8 million young children every year.3 Decent, stable housing provides more than just a roof over someone’s head • Stability for families and children. • Sense of dignity and pride. • Health, physical safety and security. • Increase of educational and job prospects. Housing must become a priority • In many countries, the minimum wage is LESS than the rental cost of affordable housing • As a result, the percentage of people without access to decent, stable housing is rising. • Increasing the housing supply across the globe is essential. • Adequate housing is vitally important to the health of the world‘s economies, communities and populations. • If we are to succeed in the fight against poverty, we must support the expansion of housing both as policy and as practice. © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 40
  • 41. HABITAT FOR HUMANITY WORLD SPEED RECORD How TOC’s CCPM can help increase speed of house construction • In 1999, a group using TOC‘s Critical Chain method, set a new ―Habitat for Humanity World Speed Record‖ for completing a 4 Bedroom House • Warren Jack who lead the team said "The technique of Goldratt's Critical Chain technique was one of the two Key Success factors that enabled the Speedbuild team to set a new Habitat World Record. • The second was the wall construction method developed in New Zealand by Laser Systems Ltd under the trademark "Laserbilt". • The team used Goldratt‘s CCPM method and software to help identify the Critical Chain in the Project and then to focus on identifying and eliminating planned delays due to process/resource dependencies and execution delays due to multitasking and unsychronized priorities. • The new world record was 3 Hours, 44 Minutes & 59 Seconds • A documentary detailing the building of this Habitat For Humanity house was aired in New Zealand on Easter Monday, April 5, 1999 at 8:30pm on TV1. © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 41
  • 42. Australian Housing Shortage Crisis Facts from National Housing Supply Council • The Australian National Housing Supply Council released its third State of Supply report, estimating a housing supply shortage of 214,700 dwellings. It predicted that this shortage will reach 328,800 dwellings by 2015 and 640,200 dwellings by 2030. • The quarterly number of ―completions‖ and the number of ―under-constructions‖ shown below illustrate the difference between how the industry reacts to the demand and what the actual change in output of housing supply. • As we can see, the actual output of the industry has not changed significantly during last 25 years, while the number of dwellings under construction has had a significant increase © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 42
  • 43. Australian Housing Shortage Crisis Facts from National Housing Supply Council • The inconsistency between the trend of number of dwellings under construction and number of completions shows that the house building industry has responded to the higher demands by signing more contracts and accepting more work. However, it could not produce higher number of houses and its output remained constant. • This phenomenon indicates a situation in which limitation of production capacity does not allow a system to produce more. The past ten years show that the industry has reached its capacity and with its current structure, it cannot produce more dwellings than this. • Knowing that there is already a shortage in supply and demand will probably increase due to population growth, the need for an increase in housing supply will be inevitable. This cannot be achieved with the current production capacity and limited resources. Thus, the only remaining way to improve the capacity would be through innovation and finding better ways of using the same level of resources for producing more dwellings © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 43
  • 44. CRITICAL CHAIN PROJECT MANAGEMENT Challenging assumptions on how to do construction projects Project A A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 A1.1 A1.2 Project B B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 B1.1 B1.2 Project C C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 C1.1 C1.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Each of these Projects represent the 3-phased construction project to build a house with 10 main ―tasks‖ each taking 2 weeks = 20 weeks total duration 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 Scenario 1: Multi-Tasking Blue A1.1 B1.1 C1.1 A1.2 B1.2 C1.2 A1.3 B1.3 C1.3 Red A1.1 B1.1 C1.1 A1.2 B1.2 C1.2 A1.3 B1.3 C1.3 A1.4 B1.4 C1.4 A1.5 B1.5 C1.5 Green A1.1 B1.1 C1.1 A1.2 B1.2 C1.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 Project A Complete Project A A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 A1.1 A1.2 Project B Complete Project B B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 B1.1 B1.2 Project C Complete Project C C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 C1.1 C1.2 Scenario 2: No Multi-Tasking Blue A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 Red B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 Green A1.1 A1.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 B1.1 B1.2 18 20 22 24 26 28 C1.1 C1.2 30 32 34 36 38 A1.1 A1.2 40 42 44 46 Project A Complete Project A A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 A1.1 A1.2 SAVING IN TIME and TIME-SENSITIVE COST $$$ Project B Complete Project B B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.1 B1.2 B1.3 B1.4 B1.5 B1.1 B1.2 Project C Complete Project C C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.1 C1.2 C1.3 C1.4 C1.5 C1.1 C1.2 48 B1.1 B1.2 50 52 54 56 58 C1.1 C1.2 60
  • 45. CASE STUDY 3 Using TOC to achieve CHEAPER Government services © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 45
  • 46. What is the impact of BETTER + FASTER on CHEAPER? CHEAPER The Total Cost per Quality Service Unit (should) go down (even more) Governments increase QUALITY THROUGHPUT with the same Resources Governments are able to increase the SERVICE QUALITY & COVERAGE with same resources BETTER Are there any other ways TOC can help to better exploit limited Budgets? Governments reduce AVOIDABLE COSTS due to reducing rework, expediting, overti me etc. Governments are able to increase SERVICE SPEED with same resources FASTER
  • 47. CASE 3: EMERGENCY RELIEF AGENCY Reducing budget losses due to “use-it-or-lose-it” policy Cash not used should be returned Hungry People Cash Constraint Central Bank Account Region 1 Bank Account Suppliers Region 1 Distr Center Region 1 Emergency Relief Region 2 Bank Account Suppliers Region 2 Distr Center Region 2 Emergency Relief Region N Bank Account Central Cash Buffer Suppliers Region N Distr Center Region N Emergency Relief Food Donors Cash / Food allocated based on Regional Central Food Buffer Forecast in $ and/or Tons of aid needed Central Distr Center Food Aid not used should be returned IF there there is 1) a real fear of under-forecasting aid required (people could die) AND 2) an unwritten rule of ―Use-it-or-lose-it‖ THEN How much of the excess CASH and FOOD will ever be returned to the Central buffers? Share Success Stories to secure more donations / donors
  • 48. HOW DO WE MEASURE BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER? © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 48
  • 49. Good Early Warning Measurements What is the best way to measure if we are achieving BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER? Cumulative Flow Diagrams Higher WIP WIP Longer Supply LT Supply Lead Time Time Longer Supply LT Time Time QUALITY THROUGHPUT PRODUCTIVITY 25% Late / Not served 20% 15% Operational Productivity = $T/$OE or QT/OE Productivity 75% of On-time / Coverage Higher WIP 15% 10% 10% 5% 0-5d 5-10d 10-15d 15-20d 20-25d 25-30d 30-35d 35-40d > 40d Time in Days Productivity = Rate at which system is generating goal units (Output or Quality Throughput) Rate at which system is spend or investing money (Input or Operating Expenses)
  • 50. SUMMARY OF KEY INSIGHTS DOING IT BETTER • What is the constraint to achieving better quality and coverage ? The Capacity Constraint or Bottleneck … find it by looking for the backlog due to demand / supply gap… • How to better exploit this constraint? Reduce capacity losses on bottleneck due to starvation, blockage, downtime, rework etc. (capitalize on law of the weakest link) DOING IT FASTER • What is the constraint to increasing speed? Time to complete tasks on longest chain of dependent tasks (Critical Chain)… • How to better exploit constraint?: Reduce delays on critical chain due to multi-tasking, waiting for decisions, unsynchronized priorities etc. (capitalize on law of improving flow) DOING IT CHEAPER • Where is the constraint? Available Budget • How to better exploit constraint? Stop initiatives that wont contribute to the highest priority objectives and remove any forms of “Use it or lose it” (capitalize on law of aggregation).
  • 51. ABOUT THE PRESENTERS Dr. Alan Barnard (PhD) Dr. Alan Barnard is one of the leading experts in the world in Theory of Constraints (TOC) frequently worked with Dr. Eli Goldratt, creator of Theory of Constraints on large and complex projects around the world. He is the CEO of Goldratt Research Labs (USA), Chairman of Realization Africa (RSA), African Phosphates (RSA) and The Odyssey Institute (USA). Alan is also a board member of TOCICO and the Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt Foundation. In 2009, Alan was awarded a PhD in Management of Technology & Innovation, from the Da Vinci Institute in 2009 with a thesis titled “How to identify and unlock inherent potential within organizations (private & public) and individuals?”. Alan is also the author of 2 chapters in the McGraw Hill published Theory of Constraints Handbook. Alan is a past-President of SAPICS (2000 to 2002) and past-President of TOCICO (2003 to 2005) and serve on the judging panels of the Logistics Achiever Awards and Technology Top 100. He has worked with global companies such as ABB, BHP, Cisco, SAP, Random House Publishing, Tata in the Private sector and also with UN DP, UN WFP and InWent in the public sector on applying for example Theory of Constraints to City Councils in Developing Countries in the Public Sector to help them identify and unlock inherent potential to achieve more with the same resources in less time.
  • 52. Author Contact Details • alan@goldrattresearchlabs.com • www.goldrattresearchlabs.com • www.harmonytoc.com © Goldratt Research Labs, 2008-2013 52

Editor's Notes

  1. Average World GDP Growth been 3.5% = Doubling Time of 20 yearsAverage World GDP per Capita = $10,900 per person, South African = $10,500 (77), China = $35,000 (20), USA = $47,000 (7), Quatar =$88,000 (1)
  2. Is the Average Demand MORE than the Available Supply Capacity or Simply more than the Productive Supply Capacity (less waste)?
  3. Thomas Malthus: An Essay on the Principle of Population 1798. Predicted a pessimistic view on the dangers of overpopulation &amp; claimed that food supply was the main limit to population growthMalthus believed the population increases exponentiallywhereas food supply will after some period only grow linearly (2,4,6,8etc) being limited by availability of productive land and water.
  4. Many of the emerging markets and even the developed markets are facing a large and growing affordable housing shortage problem.Even the UK, they are estimating a shortage of 750,000 homes by 2025
  5. When I did this project, Cash donations were around $2b and Food Aid around 3.5million tons/annum, feeding over 80 million people
  6. When I did this project, Cash donations were around $2b and Food Aid around 3.5million tons/annum, feeding over 80 million people