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Economic Capsule March 2012
 

Economic Capsule March 2012

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    Economic Capsule March 2012 Economic Capsule March 2012 Presentation Transcript

    • ECONOMIC CAPSULE March 2012< Research & Development Unit >
    • CONTENTS  SLINTEC Enters Strategic Technology Development Agreement with NF  First-ever Petrochemical Venture in Sri LankaFINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS   Sri Lanka Tea Trade Warns of Lower Orders & Prices Commercial Bank Bags “Best Bank in Sri Lanka” Award for the 14th Time GLOBAL UPDATE Commercial Bank & Ceylinco Insurance in ‘Bancassurance Deal  Views Expressed by Ms. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director at thECONOMIC & BUSINESS NEWS  The Iran Impact  Forbes Billionaires List USD 45 Mn SLDB Issue Oversubscribed The Value of the Sri Lankan Economy Tops Rs. 6.5 tn  Hong Kong Best Place for Business – Bloomberg Inflation in February 2012 Drops, Led by Low Food Prices External Sector Performance - January 2012 Expo 2012 Begins… ANALYSIS & FORECAST  Exchange Rate World Bank Approves USD 213 Mn Loan to Support Metro Colombo Urban Development Project Malaysian Company in USD 600mn Metro Rail Project Linking  Market Liquidity BIA with Fort SLINTEC & Laugfs to set up First-ever Plant to Produce Titanium Oxide  Credit Growth  Treasury Secretary’s Comments on the Current Economic Situation < Research & Development Unit >
    • FINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS
    • Commercial Bank Bags “Best Bank in Sri Lanka” Award for the 14thTime The Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC has been chosen as the “Best Bank in Sri Lanka” for the 14th successive year by the Global Finance magazine. Criteria for choosing the winners included growth in assets, profitability, strategic relationships, customer service, competitive pricing, and innovative products. Subjective criteria included the opinions of equity analysts, credit rating analysts, banking consultants and others involved in the industry. According to Global Finance, the mix of these factors yields leading banks that may not be the largest, the oldest or the most diversified in a given region, but rather the best— the banks with which companies around the world would most likely want to do business.< Research & Development Unit >
    • Commercial Bank & Ceylinco Insurance in ‘Bancassurance Deal Commercial Bank has entered into an agreement with Ceylinco Insurance to offer the latter’s General and Life insurance products through the Commercial Bank’s islandwide network of branches. The agreement strengthens Commercial Bank’s commitment to offer a wide choice in Bancassurance to existing and potential customers, through partnerships with the country’s leading insurance providers. The bank’s extensive network of 214 service points enhances the convenience of purchasing insurance products of Ceylinco Insurance as well as making premium payments.< Research & Development Unit >
    • ECONOMIC & BUSINESS NEWS
    • USD 45 Mn SLDB Issue Oversubscribed Date Tenor Amount Interest The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, offered to issue Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) of USD 35 mn in 3-year tenor and 03 year USD 99 Mn LIBOR + 375 bps* March 2011 04 year USD 93 Mn LIBOR + 385 bps* USD 10 mn in 4-year tenor to eligible investors for subscription at a rate of USD 6 month LIBOR plus a margin to be determined USD 6 month LIBOR rate was 0.46% through competitive bidding. June 2011 03 year USD 102 Mn LIBOR + 395 bps* 02 year USD 176 Mn LIBOR + 380 bps* The offer was oversubscribed by 2.2 times USD 6 month LIBOR rate was 0.75% with total bids received amounting to USD 100 mn. 05 year USD 55 Mn LIBOR + 390 bps* Aug 2011 04 year USD 30 Mn LIBOR + 375 bps* In view of the high demand by the investors, 03 year USD 81 Mn LIBOR + 365 bps* the Government decided to accept - USD 72 USD 6 month LIBOR rate was 0.44% mn in 3 year maturity and USD 12 mn in 4 year maturity at the market determined Mar 2012 03 year USD 72 Mn LIBOR + 385 bps* rates of USD 6 month LIBOR + 385 bps 04 year USD 12 Mn LIBOR + 415 bps* (weighted average margin) and 6 month USD 6 month LIBOR rate was 0.74% LIBOR + 415 bps (weighted average *bps - basis points margin), respectively. Source: Daily FT (The USD 6 month LIBOR rate as at 19.03.12 - 0.74%). Source: CBSL< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • The Value of the Sri Lankan Economy Tops Rs. 6.5 tn  The value of Sri Lanka’s economy in 2011 had crossed the Rs. 6.5 tn mark, up by 16.7% from Rs. 5.6 tn in 2010. At constant prices, the value of the GDP was Rs. 2.86 tn, up from Rs. 2.64 tn in 2010.  Sri Lankan economy recorded two successive years of 8% growth.  Reflecting the new dimension in the economic landscape of Sri Lanka, the industry sector posted its highest growth in several decades of 10.3% as against 8.4% in 2010. In addition, it increased its share of the GDP in 2011 to 29.3% from 28.7% in 2010. Sector 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Services Growth % 7.1 5.6 3.3 8.0 8.6 Share of GDP % 59.6 59.5 59.3 59.3 59.5 Industry Growth % 7.6 5.9 4.2 8.4 10.3 Share of GDP % 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.3 Agriculture Growth % 3.4 7.5 3.2 7.0 1.5 Source: Census & Statistics Department Share of GDP % 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.2 GDP growth % 6.8 6.0 3.5 8.0 8.3< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Inflation in February 2012 Drops, Led by Low Food Prices  The general price level as indicated by the monthly index CCPI (%) CCPI Core* (%) Period recorded a marginal increase of 0.4 % in February 2012 over Y-o-Y A.A. Y-o-Y A.A. that of the previous month, with the Index increasing in absolute terms to 155.4 from 154.8. Jan 12 3.8 6.5 4.7 6.7  The increase in the Index was entirely due to the upward price Feb 12 2.7 6.1 4.7 6.6 revision of petrol, diesel and kerosene, bus fares and * The price movement excluding Fresh Food, Energy, Transport, Rice and Coconut in the CCPI basket. surcharge on electricity bill in mid February 2012 which had a partial impact on the CCPI.  Though the sub indices of the Transport (4.6 %); and Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (1.8 %) increased during the month, the impact on the index was off-set by the substantial decrease in the Food sub index. 6.1%  Improved domestic supply mainly contributed to decrease the sub category of Food and non-alcoholic beverages by 1.3 %. 2.7%  More specifically, decline in prices of most varieties of vegetables and fish, rice, red onion, big onion, potato, eggs, limes and green chillies contributed towards the decrease in the sub index. Source: CBSL< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • External Sector Performance - January 2012 Category Jan. (a) Jan. (b) Growth 2011 2012 Jan  In January 2012, earnings from exports stood at USD 918 mn, USD mn USD mn (%) indicating a marginal decline of 0.6 %, compared to that of JanuaryExports 923.0 917.7 -0.6 2011, which was largely attributable to the decline in earnings from Agricultural 210.7 181.5 -13.9 agricultural exports and higher base in January 2011. Tea 128.5 103.9 -19.1 Industrial 708.9 732.6 3.3 – Earnings from agricultural exports  in January 2012, as a result of lower Textiles and garments 360.7 366.6 1.6 performance recorded in traditional agricultural exports of tea and rubber. Rubber products 64.8 78.2 20.7 – Earnings from tea exports  by 19.1% (yoy), to USD 104 mn mainly due to Food, beverages and tobacco 27.2 20.8 -23.6 geopolitical uncertainties in major tea importing destinations. Rubber exports  as Mineral 2.6 2.6 0.7 the demand from local rubber manufacturing industries remained elevated.Imports 1,567.9 1,883.3 20.1 Consumer Goods 279.2 287.7 3.0 Food and beverages 129.7 124.5 -4.1  Meanwhile, the expenditure on imports increased by 20.1% to USD Other consumer goods 149.5 163.2 9.2 1,883 mn in January 2012, showing a deceleration for the second Intermediate Goods 980.4 1,065.1 8.6 consecutive month. Petroleum 406.9 483.6 18.9 Textile and clothing 197.9 203.0 2.6 – Reflecting the continuous expansion in economic activities, investment goods Investment Goods 303.5 523.3 72.4 imports  by 72.4% in January 2012. All the three major categories of investment Machinery and equipment 156.2 250.3 60.2 goods; transport equipment, building materials and machinery and equipment Transport equipment 72.2 144.7 100.3 recorded healthy growth of 100.3%, 71.1% and 60.2%, respectively. Building material 74.7 127.7 71.1 – Expenditure on intermediate goods  by 8.6% to USD 1,065 mn mainly due to higherBalance of Trade 644.9 965.5 49.7 petroleum imports. Expenditure on petroleum imports  by 18.9% to USD 484 mn inWorkers’ Remittances 377.0 473.0 25.4 January 2012 compared to that of January 2011, reflecting a substantial increase inEarnings from Tourism 72.0 88.0 22.9 prices. The average price of crude oil imports  by 21.3% to USD 115.62 per barrelForeign Direct Investment(FDI) 1,066.0(c) n.a n.a in January 2012 from USD 95.33 per barrel in January 2011.Inflows to the Government 184.0 296.0 60.9 a) Revised (b) Provisional (c) FDI for Source: CBSL Cont…< Research & Development Unit > 2011 The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • External Sector Performance - January 2012 (cont…)  Sri Lankas gross official Gross Official Reserves reserves fell to USD 5,806 mn in January 2012, from a peak of USD 8,098 mn USD 5,806 mn reached in July 2011.  In terms of months of imports, gross official reserves by end January 2012 were equivalent to 3.4 months.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Expo 2012 Begins… Sri Lanka Expo 2012, the mega trade, investment and tourism exhibition under the theme "Partnering with the hub of Asia" is to be held from March 28th – 31st, 2012 at the BMICH in Colombo.  Exhibitors: Sri Lanka Expo 2012 will provide opportunities to display and promote quality export products on a single platform and 370 Sri Lankan exporters including 70 SMEs will participate covering the entire product range of traditional and non traditional products and services.  Visitors: Over 1000 international visitors including trade buyers, members of delegations, investors and outbound tour operators are expected to attend the event.  Trade delegations: USA [35 Members], UAE [50 including a high profile Government & private sector delegation], Belgium [25 members], UK [45 Members], Representative from South Asia Experts Group on Investment and Investment Policy Think Tanks [15 – 20 members], Singapore [35 member delegation from Gems & Jewellery Association], Japan [40 Trade delegation], Thailand [40 trade delegation], Malaysia [40 Trade delegation], Korea [30 Trade delegation], China [150 Trade delegation], Pakistan [20 Trade visitors], India [120 Trade visitors], France [10 members], Russia [10 members], Germany [10 members] & Maldives(50 members). The first two days of the exhibition will be exclusively for the foreign delegates and it will be open for public on March 30 and 31.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • World Bank Approves USD 213 Mn Loan to Support Metro Colombo UrbanDevelopment ProjectTenders have been called by the Defence Ministry for the USD 213 mn World Bank-funded,Metro Colombo Urban Development Project, to give Colombo a major facelift that aims to minimisefloods and beautify the capital. There are three components to the project. •Flood and drainage management. Beira Lake restoration and creation of linear and nodal parks, construction of Baddegana biodiversity park, restoration & creation of six lakes in the upper catchment areas of parliament etc. IV.Urban development, infrastructure rehabilitation and capacity building for Metro Colombo local authorities. Rehabilitation of R. A. De Mel Mw and Galle Road within city limits, Town Hall Square project, Water front recreation park in Crow Island, Marine drive promenade with leisure park, Pedestrian overhead bridges at Kollupitiya and Bambalapitiya, Walk-ability improvement in 10 main roads in Colombo City, Construction of 15 toilet complexes, Rehabilitation of roads in Dehiwela,, Mount Lavinia, Sri Jayawardenapura Kotte& Kollonawa areas. VI.Implementation support.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Malaysian Company in USD 600mn Metro Rail Project LinkingBIA with Fort Airport Express Air and Rail Company (AEARC) of Malaysia, announced its decision to invest USD 600 mn, on what will become Sri Lanka’s first Metropolitan Railway System, running from Bandaranaike International Airport - Katunayake to Fort, which would see the distance between the two points being covered in 25 minutes.  Construction work is likely to start in 2013 once the feasibility study is completed by KPMG India and end in 2016.  The project would be a BOI venture and finances will be raised by selling stakes of the company’s equity to overseas companies.  According to AEARC chairman, the company would also develop a 32 floor multipurpose complex comprised of a city hotel, shopping malls, casinos, beauty parlours, massage centres, auditoriums and restaurants to facilitate the fast moving business communities. The company also plans to operat a shuttle bus service linking all major attractions and hotels in Colombo to provide a better service to tourists and local travellers.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • SLINTEC & Laugfs to set up First-ever Plant to Produce Titanium Oxide Titanium dioxide, is the naturally occurring Laugfs Holdings Limited together with the Sri oxide of titanium. It has a wide range of Lanka Institute of Nanotechnology (SLINTEC) applications, from paint to sunscreen to food colouring. When used as a food signed an agreement, sealing a joint venture to colouring, it has E number E171. set up the country’s first plant to produce titanium dioxide from mineral sand.  If Sri Lanka exports a MT of ilmenite the country can earn USD 99.2 per MT. (Sri Lanka exporting ilmenite The new venture would allow value to be added to in the raw form) mineral sands, which have so far been exported from  Using value addition via nano technology, If SL the country as a raw bulk commodity. could export Titanium Dioxide, the country could earn as much as USD 4,000 per MT(~40 times) The setting up of the plant will allow production of  Furthermore, if SL exports Nano-Titanium Dioxide, titanium dioxide from ilmenite obtained from mineral SL could earn as much as USD 50,000 per MT (~500 sands extracted from Pulmoddai. times)  Additionally SL could export Nano Iron oxide as well Sri Lanka is estimated to have 18 mn metric tons of from ilmenite, which will earn USD 200 per MT. ilmenite reserves, which amounts to the ninth largest (Source: Mr. Vaeranja Karunaratne - SLINTEC) reserve in the world.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • SLINTEC Enters Strategic Technology Development Agreement withNFCL, India Sri Lanka Institute of Nanotechnology (SLINTEC) has entered into a strategic collaboration with Nagarjuna Fertilisers and Chemicals Limited (NFCL) of Hyderabad, India, to develop the next generation of Nanotechnology based plant nutrition solutions. These are next generation green products aimed at increasing productivity and income for farmers and creating a sustainable business for all the stakeholders engaged in agri-business. As part of this strategic partnership Nagarjuna will be purchasing the first generation of nano plant nutrition products, taking it from proof of concept to proof of value for commercialisation, and entering into a long- term strategic technology development program with SLINTEC for the second and third generation nano plant nutrition products. SLINTEC will carry out research and Nagarjuna will develop the product. The investment of the project is estimated at Rs. 800 mn.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • First-ever Petrochemical Venture in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka is to soon have its first-ever petrochemical venture, which given the planned mega scale, will position the country on the global map of this high tech industry. The Government has approved a project to build what would be PET, which stands for polyethylene terephthalate, is a one of the world’s largest single location Polyester Bottle Resins clear, strong and lightweight plastic belonging to the polyester family. (PET resin) manufacturing plants, in Hambantota, by a consortium of investors promoted by the Singapore-based Peak It is typically called “polyester” when used for fibers or fabrics, and “PET” or “PET Resin” when used for Energy Ltd. bottles, jars, containers and packaging applications. The envisaged investment is USD 150 mn. The project, when PET is the world’s packaging choice for many foods completed by late 2013, would handle business worth USD 1 and beverages because it is hygienic, strong, lightweight, shatterproof, and retains freshness. It is bn. most commonly used to package carbonated soft drinks and water. In the second phase, Hambana Petrochemicals Ltd. (HPL) will set up a one million ton PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) plant as part of its backward integration plant and further expand petrochemical downstream activities in country. The second phase is expected to generate revenues of over USD 2 bn.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Sri Lanka Tea Trade Warns of Lower Orders & Prices Sri Lankas tea trade has warned that tea export orders and prices could fall in the months ahead as crops rise and consumption falls off in key markets. The Colombo Tea Traders’ Association has stated that money raised from an export tax for tea promotion should be spent on promoting the product in new markets such as India and China as demand from traditional markets in the West and Middle East wanes. A general trend of declining prices/demand has been experienced at the auctions over the past many months which is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. This is mainly the outcome of the prolonged political turmoil in the West Asian and North African regions, the international trade sanctions imposed on certain countries and the economic dilemma faced by many countries world-wide.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • GLOBAL UPDATE
    • Views Expressed by Ms. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director atthe China Development Forum 2012 The global economy is not yet out of the danger zone: financial systems are still fragile; public and private debt is still too high; and unemployment is still a major problem. Added to that, the rising price of oil is a new threat that could derail the recovery. The advanced economies—the European advanced economies in particular remain the epicenter of many of these pressures. While they are clearly on the right policy path, they must push ahead without delay or diffidence. However, the emerging economies, particularly global growth leaders like China - also have a special responsibility. They are far from immune to the weaknesses among the advanced economies. Besides, the possibility of slower growth over the medium term in some emerging economies is another source of risk to the global recovery. If the emerging markets are to continue to prosper and help keep the global economy afloat, as they did through the depths of the crisis, they too must act not just in their own interests, but in the global interest. “I dare not think how bad the global situation might have been if China was not the powerhouse that it is. Yet, it also makes me wonder what more China can achieve - both for the Chinese people and as a global economic leader. “I feel that the best is yet to come”. Cont…< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Views Expressed by Ms. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director at the ChinaDevelopment Forum 2012 (cont…)The China Yet to Come…The weak global environment hasintensified the focus—both inside andoutside China—on the need toaccelerate efforts to transform China’seconomic model.China’s external balance has comedown considerably—reflecting weakerglobal demand, a worsening in China’s Source: The Economistterms of trade, and very strong  Attention is now shifting towards the growing internal imbalancesdomestic investment. and, notably, the persistent and very high levels of investment.The current account surplus has fallen  Domestic consumption needs now to assume an even larger role insharply from a record 10 % of GDP in driving growth. And that needs to happen sooner rather than later or2007 to less than 3 % in 2011. tensions in the current growth path will become increasingly evident. Cont…< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Views Expressed by Ms. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director at the ChinaDevelopment Forum 2012 (cont…)  Export and investment-oriented growth may have catapulted China to where it is today, but it is not sufficiently people-centered. Prosperity can only endure when it is shared more broadly among the Chinese people. And the same is true for social stability. So, what are the policy priorities needed to propel China forward on this journey? There are three key dimensions.  The first is to boost household incomes and promote inclusiveness.  The second priority is to prepare for the coming demographic challenge.  The third, and final, priority is financial reform.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • The Iran Impact  The list of 11 countries that buy Iranian oil and could be subject to U.S. sanctions unless they significantly cut purchases.  China leads the bunch with 543,000 barrels imported per day. Greece’s imports from Iran represent 53.1% of their total oil imports.The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC Source: Thomson Reuters
    • Source: Thomson ReutersHong Kong Best Place for Business - Bloomberg Degree of economic Cost of setting up Cost of labor & Cost of Less Readiness of localRank Country Score integration a business material moving goods tangible costs consumer base 1 Hong Kong 49.0% 81.9% 34.2% 54.3% 48.0% 47.4% 40.7% 2 Netherlands 48.3% 85.4% 37.0% 48.7% 48.0% 47.1% 36.0% 3 United States 46.9% 80.6% 30.0% 56.4% 48.3% 43.8% 31.1% 4 United Kingdom 45.7% 90.2% 29.3% 44.6% 45.2% 46.8% 34.6% 5 Australia 45.6% 82.0% 30.5% 48.3% 46.1% 42.8% 38.5%Bloomberg Rankings measures160 markets on a scale of zero to 100 percent based on six factors. These are the costs of setting up business,hiring and moving goods; the degree of economic integration; less tangible costs such as inflation and corruption; and the readiness of the local consumerbase, a category that includes the size of the middle class, household consumption and gross domestic product per person. Source: Bloomberg The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • ANALYSIS & FORECAST
    • Exchange Rate 21.11.11 09.02.12 22.03.12 Change Change Rate (1) (2) (3) % (2)/(1) % (3)/(2) Buying Rate 109.60 113.44 128.32 3.5 13.20  During 1st Jan. 2012 – 22nd Mar. 2012 the LKR had depreciated by 14 % against the USD. Selling Rate 111.24 115.31 132.23 3.6 14.67 Middle Rate 110.42 114.37 130.28 3.6 13.90  The LKR was under pressure during the last few days due to heavy seasonal import demand and speculation in the market.  The rupee is expected to fall until imports becomes too expensive in rupee terms, or else until foreign inflows increase substantially.  At that point exporters who are holding onto their dollars would start converting them to rupees.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Market Liquidity Liquidity Position in the CBSL’s Holdings of Govt. Date Banking Sector (Rs bn) Securities (Rs bn)  The gross official reserves of the 30.08.2011 55.011 0.069 country had fallen from USD 8.2 bn in 30.12.2011 - 5.375 167.302 August 2011 to USD 5.8 bn in January 16.03.2012 3.710 248.428 2012 due to the CBSL selling dollars to 22.03.2012 27.781 224.361 keep the exchange rate stable.  With the CBSL selling dollars, rupee liquidity in the market began to erode.  This prompted the CBSL to inject LKR to the market to fill the deficit and thereby prevent further increase of rupee interest rates. These injections of LKR by the CBSL are reflected in the increase in Central Bank’s Holdings of government securities< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Credit Growth  The policy interest rates maybe increased further, thereby curbing credit growth, which in turn will check the rise in imports.< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Treasury Secretary’s Comments on the Current Economic Situation: Dr. Jayasundara, expects the exchange rate to settle down below Rs. 125 per USD. dollar He also expects demand for forex to ease off from April onwards whilst and reserves are likely to inflows remain resilient with lower expenditure on imports and higher export earnings. The governor of the CBSL expects that the LKR will recover substantially due to dollar inflows into stocks, government securities, banks, and a hotel project. According to CBSL, foreign currency inflows to the country increased substantially in recent weeks. Net inflows to the CSE so far this year (up to 20.03.2012 ) amounting to USD 164 mn. Recent inflows in respect of investments in several commercial banks, amounting to about USD 127 mn. Investments in Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) were made to the value of USD 87 mn, comfortably exceeding the USD 45 mn, that was maturing and was on offer for re-investment. Net investments of USD 385 mn in Treasury Bills and Bonds have been made by foreign investors so far in 2012. Further foreign currency inflows are expected in the next few weeks, which would include inflows as a result of several commercial banks raising funds abroad for their Tier 2 capital. Subject to oil prices remaining intact, Dr. Jayasundera forecasts the value of imports in 2012 to be reduced by at least USD 1 bn whilst exports are forecast to grow by USD 1 bn. Cont…< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Treasury Secretary’s Comments on the Current Economic Situation: (cont…) Justifying the correction in the rupee’s value, the Treasury Secretary has cited that in January the Central Bank is estimated to have sold USD 600 mn followed by USD 300 mn in February, whilst so far in March it stands at USD 120 mn. FDIs will be over USD 1 bn or maximum USD 2 bn with several solid projects in the pipeline. It was pointed out that more importantly several key mega projects such as Shangri La and Colombo South Terminal are at the construction stage. The government was planning to rollover the country’s first sovereign bond amounting to USD 500 mn, when it matures later this year. "We will first increase the tenure from five years to ten. Then we would explore the possibilities of issuing USD 500 mn, USD 750 mn or USD 1 bn. The balance we get from the rollover would be used to retire existing government debt, and the benefits would cascade down to the real economy“. With the adjusted fuel prices the losses of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation has been brought down to around Rs. 60 bn from Rs. 200 bn. Economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the US have meant that Sri Lanka would have to look to other sources. "We have already had discussions with Oman and Saudi Arabia and we have been told their crude oil is compatible with our refinery". Source: Daily FT, Island< Research & Development Unit > The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
    • Here is the best test to find whether your mission on earth is finished. If you’re alive, it isn’t. Richard BachThe views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLCThe information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of theinformation, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise,suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.Research & Development Unit