Q1 2012 - Columbus Retail
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Q1 2012 - Columbus Retail

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Q1 2012 - Columbus Retail Q1 2012 - Columbus Retail Document Transcript

  • Q1 2012 | RETAILGREATER COLUMBUS REGIONRETAIL TRENDS REPORT First Dip in Seven Quarters COLUMBUS REGION OVERVIEW The Columbus retail market opened the year with 123,632 of negative absorption. After seven quarters of slow positive absorption, the market took a dip - specifically in the Southeast. The Southeast submarket lost 93,1000 square feet, Northwest lost 26,900 square feet and Southeast lost 23,3000 square feet. The largest of absorption of retail space occurred at 1111 Hill Road with Big Lots and Planet Fitness combining for 57,000 square feet of absorption, and at 459 Agler Road in theMARKET INDICATORS Northeast, where 22,500 square feet of absorption occurred from Four Seasons Furniture. Q1 Q2 FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS 2012 2012* • The retail vacancy rate increased by 10 basis 80,000-square-foot store will employ 175 full points from the fourth quarter 2011 to 11.1 and part-time employees. Construction begins VACANCY percent in the first quarter 2012. this year. NET ABSORPTION • Sears will shudder many of their locations, • Inconstruction news, Menards is building their including K-Mart. The Great Indoors in Polaris second location in Columbus at 6810 East CONSTRUCTION — has announced it will close. Another big box Broad Street in the Northeast submarket. The RENTAL RATES — — retailer, Best Buy, has announced the closing big box retail will be 180,000 square feet of 50 stores across the country - two in Ohio. when completed. Menard’s recently purchased *Projected change to following quarter • Cabela’s, a large outdoor retailer, will open its 40 acres along U.S. 23 in Lewis Center for first store in Ohio in Polaris. The planned future development. RENTAL RATESSTEADILY UPWARD VACANCY RATE OVER COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTIONSAsking Rates The average asking  1,200,000 14% rental rates increased for $16.00  1,000,000 neighborhood. In big box, 12% Completions and Absorptions $14.00  800,000 community, and  600,000 10% anchored strip asking $12.00 rates fell. Vacancy Rate  400,000 8% $10.00  200,000  ‐ 6%  $8.00  (200,000) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 4%  $6.00 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 09  (400,000) 2%  $4.00  (600,000) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12  (800,000) 0% Anchored Strip Neighborhood Community Big Box Completions Absorption Vacancy Ratewww.colliers.com/columbus
  • RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2012 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION CONSTRUCTION Construction is set to begin by year’s end and Delaware County 40,000 square feet are still underway at New may be completed in the second half of 2013. Union County Market Mall (7588-7674 New Market Center North / Way). MARKET ACTIVITY Northeast Licking Northwest County Market Activity Volume is the sum of the A 30,000-square-foot community center at absolute value of each absorption change in the 4020-4060 Powell Road is under construction market and it tells us a little more about whatMadison CBD in the Northwest. exactly happened to the market behind theCounty Southeast absorption number. The Market Activity Volume Southwest Worthington Place renovation continues. was slightly more than 550,000 square feet. Fairfield County FrontRunner Shoes, Kenneth’s Hair Salons and This is marginally above average for first Pickaway County Day Spas, Swan Cleaners and Worthington quarter compared to the previous 5 years Dental have signed on as tenants at the Shops at Worthington Place. The typical tenant in the market currently areThe Columbus retail market includes 11suburban submarkets and the Central service oriented businesses, as well asBusiness District. A total inventory of 55 Waggenbrenner Development Inc.’s Commons at discount-oriented tenants.million square feet of space with only 1 Clark Hall has broken ground on their 24,000million of that space in the CBD. square foot mixed-use, retail space. Chipotle Tenants are facing a lack of space in Class A Mexican Grill, Panera Bread, Rusty Bucket shopping centers as well as a slightly Restaurant, and AT&T Mobile have all signed to competitive atmosphere. lease space when it opens in October 2012. Landlords are dealing with many tenants who Giant Eagle announced it will locate a still have larger TI (tenant improvement dollar) supermarket into the Grandview Yard under a requirements. In order to stay competitive, 20-year lease. 12 to 15 acres of the land that landlords are having to pay to make these deals Nationwide Realty has put together will go to with credit tenants. support the 92,000-square-foot store. UPDATE New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET 5043 Tuttle Crossing 12-Mar 138,800,000.00 376,681 Simon Property Group Farallon Capital Partners $368.00 Super Re- Northwest Boulevard gional Center 7155 Corazon Drive 12-Jan $1,425,000.00 58,000 Peoples Corazon Ppr Corazon Llc $24.57 Freestanding Northwest Property LLC 8909 South Old State Road 12-Feb $4,370,000.00 50011 Nickleplate Realty Trust Cedar Realty Trust $87.38 Conv/Strip Northwest 845 Hill Road North 12-Feb $4,072,000.00 47,540 Nickleplate Realty Trust Cedar Realty Trust $85.65 Conv/Strip Southeast 5378-5414 Roberts Road 12-Feb $1,433,700.00 40,994 Cedar-Hilliard LLC DDM-Hilliard LLC $34.97 Conv/Strip Southwest 2885 Gender Road 12-Mar $1,200,000.00 33,016 2885 Gender Road 2885 Gender Road LLC $36.35 Freestanding Southeast Holdings LLC 545 N Nelson Road 12-Feb $540,000.00 21,300 Sutherland Lumber Lahaina Enterprises LLC $25.35 Freestanding Southeast Company, L.P. LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF TOTAL SIZE LESSEE ASKING PRICE TYPE SUBMARKET 1111 Hill Road 21,000 90,780 Planet Fitness $15.00 Anchored Strip Center Fairfield 300 Hamilton Road 15,922 176,610 South Beach Fitness - Anchored Strip Center North-Northeast 1650 Church Street 10,325 25,000 Arensburg $8.00 Conv/Strip Ctr LickingP. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2012 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGIONUPDATE Market ComparisonsRETAIL MARKET Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental RatesSUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood PowerCBD 1,105,385 51,399 4.6 1,200 1,200 - - $12.00 -FAIRFIELD 4,144,963 441,283 10.6 66,820 66,820 - - $8.87 -LICKING 4,110,073 390,272 9.5 (4,295) (4,295) - - $13.00 -MADISON 214,406 26,470 12.3 (17,185) (17,185) - - - -NORTH DELAWARE 2,302,906 165,686 7.2 (6,927) (6,927) 30,000 - - $22.50NORTHEAST 16,320,781 1,113,086 6.8 (10,777) (10,777) 180,000 - $12.75 $10.00NORTHWEST 13,197,478 1,154,434 8.7 (26,992) (26,992) 70,000 - $15.77 $20.00PICKAWAY 741,829 17,582 2.4 - - - - $8.50 -SOUTHEAST 10,054,743 1,712,066 17.0 (93,100) (93,100) - - $11.95 $19.50SOUTHWEST 7,050,411 1,568,730 22.3 (23,376) (23,376) - - $7.11 $7.91UNION 1,161,503 54,939 4.7 (9,000) (9,000) - - - $18.00TOTALS 60,404,478 6,695,947 11.1 (123,632) (123,632) 280,000 - $12.32 $12.93 Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental RatesPROPERTY TYPE Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current CompletionsANCHORED STRIP 11,881,558 1,651,377 13.9 22,804 22,804 - - $11.18BIG BOX 7,755,635 905,054 11.7 (15,241) (15,241) 180,000 - $5.00CONV/STRIP CENTER 3,534,319 329,353 9.3 14,105 14,105 - - $11.46FREESTANDING 4,106,470 368,305 9.0 883 883 - - $9.71REGIONAL CENTER 663,236 136,200 20.5 - - - - -STRIP 133,012 33,320 25.1 (33,320) (33,320) - - $9.00SUPER REGIONAL CENTER 6,489,090 590,750 9.1 - - - - -URBAN RETAIL 520,249 - 0.0 1,200 1,200 - - -COMMUNITY 4,152,717 624,146 15.0 (64,951) (64,951) 30,000 - $10.66NEIGHBORHOOD 5,480,508 751,028 13.7 (34,307) (34,307) 70,000 - $12.32POWER 15,687,684 1,306,414 8.3 (14,805) (14,805) - - $13.87GRAND TOTAL 60,404,478 6,695,947 11.1 (123,632) (123,632) 280,000 - $11.69QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental RatesQUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood PowerQ4, 2011 60,377,478 6,576,047 10.9% 116,181 405,935 97,000 - $11.66 $12.93Q3, 2011 60,377,478 6,638,840 11.0% 79,911 212,889 27,000 158,302 $11.80 $12.45Q2, 2011 60,219,176 6,738,751 11.2% 16,797 196,092 185,302 495,647 $12.88 $13.58Q1, 2011 59,723,529 6,760,348 11.3 193,046 193,046 437,302 110,000 $12.32 $13.87 MINIMUM WAGE The minimum wage increased across Ohio by $.30 to $7.70, effective January 1, 2012. The minimum wage for tipped employees will climb 15 cents to $3.85 an hour. The rise is a part of a scheduled increase, tied to consumer prices. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2012 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGIONCBD produced by the Federal Reserve Bank semi-The Central Business District (CBD) had scant quarterly.positive absorption of 1,200 square feet. 522 offices inNORTH The consumer confidence index is produced by The Conference Board and is a survey of how 62 countries onThe north submarkets include Northwest, confident consumers are in the current economic 6 continentsNortheast, and North Delaware. conditions by their spending and saving habits. In April, the index was 69.5, increasing by United States: 125 roughly 84 basis points from 61.1 in January Canada: 38In the Northwest, 27,000 square feet was Latin America: 18vacated at 6436 Riverside Drive. 2012, the end of fourth quarter. In March, the Asia Pacific: 214 index was at 69.5. As a guide, the index was EMEA: 117In North Delaware, Dollar General left 9,300 112.5 in July 2007, six months before beginning • $1.8 billion in annual revenuesquare feet at 1131 Columbus Pike. of the recession. • 1.25 billion square feet under managementIn the Northeast, Lifestyle Fitness left two Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the average dollar amount Americans report • Over 12,300 professionalslocations: 18,300 square feet at 1270 HamiltonRoad and 15,700 square feet at 1025 Polaris spending or charging on a daily basis, notParkway. counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle, GREATER COLUMBUS REGION or normal household bills. Over the three month Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIMSOUTH period between January and March, the 14-day CEO | Principal | Columbus 8800 Lyra Drive rolling average rose slightly from $74 to $76The southern submarkets are Southeast and Suite #150 with a high of $79 on April 7th. The high mark of Columbus, Ohio, 43240Southwest. In the Southeast, Media Play moved the 3-day rolling average was on March 19th TEL +1 614 410 5612out of 36,000 square feet at 2261 Hamilton coinciding with March Madness. There was veryRoad. little variation over the three month period as reported retail sales did not grow substantially. Leslie HobbsEAST Marketing and Research Manager 8800 Lyra DriveThe eastern submarkets are Licking and Fairfield The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on Suite #150Counties. Fairfield was the best performing consumer spending twice a quarter in the Beige Columbus, Ohio, 43240submarket this quarter with 66,000 square feet Book. The data for these reports comes from TEL +1 614 410 5640of absorption. Planet Fitness and Big Lots leased qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth1111 Hill Road for a combined 57,000 square feet district, which includes Columbus. In February,of positive absorption. Planet Fitness also leased the reserve bank reported that retailers indicated Jonathan Badgley8,400 square feet of 3020 Columbus-Lancaster Research Analyst sales were mixed due to unseasonably warmRoad. Licking submarket lost a marginal 5,000 175 South Third Street weather. Retailers expected first quarter 2012 Suite # 285square feet of space. sales to be higher than year-ago levels. Columbus, Ohio 43201 Inventories were categorized as good except for TEL +1 614 437 4495WEST winter items, which are higher than desired.The western submarkets include Union and Outlays planned for 2012 will be slightly higherMadison counties. The Madison submarket lost than 2011, and they will be focused on technology17,000 square feet of space. The Union enhancements and remodeling.submarket lost 9,000 square feet of space fromMattress Mart and Mango’s Mexican Restaurant In April, retailers reported that sales were ahead This document/email has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising purposes. Colliersvacating 338 Coleman’s Crossing. of plan, increasing by single digits relative to International statistics and data are audited annually and year-ago levels. The warm weather was a factor may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures. Sources include ColumbusFUNDAMENTALS for the pickup in sales. Most retailers are Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, Wall Street Journal,Three sources are instructive for retail consumer expecting similar performance in second quarter, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gallup and the Cleveland Federal Reserve.activity: the consumer confidence index; a with increases in the single digits over year-agoweekly poll conducted by Gallup; the Beige Book levels. Accelerating success.www.colliers.com/columbus