Cincinnati OH Retail Trends Q3 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Cincinnati OH Retail Trends Q3 2011

on

  • 460 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
460
Views on SlideShare
460
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Cincinnati OH Retail Trends Q3 2011 Cincinnati OH Retail Trends Q3 2011 Document Transcript

  • Q3 2011 | RETAILCINCINNATI, OHTHE KNOWLEDGE REPORT Retail Market Continues to Move in the Right Direction EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Greater Cincinnati retail market continued to post positive gains in net absorption, a trend noted in all three quarters of 2011. The third quarter posted 32,432 square feet of positive absorption, bringing the year-to-date net absorption total to 586,696 square feet. The vacancy rate remained at 12.6% which is 180 basis points less than the same period MARKET INDICATORS last year. Q3 11 Q4 11* As occupancy numbers continued to improve, new retail developments came back to life in VACANCY many submarkets. Several new retail developments were announced, while existing NET ABSORPTION projects continued to move forward. These projects run from downtown Cincinnati to CONSTRUCTION midtown, with Northern Kentucky and Anderson Township getting their fair share of activity RENTAL RATE as well. *Projected Change to the following Quarter. The average overall asking rate for retail space remained unchanged from last quarter at $11.75 per square foot. Owners of retail space have found some comfort in the stability of the rental market over the past several months. The Cincinnati Retail Market OVERALL VACANCY RATE QUARTERLY ABSORPTION posted 32,432 SF of positive absorption in the 3rd quarter.15% 1,50014% 1,000 (In Thousands)13% Square Feet12% 50011%10% 0 3Q 08 1Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 -500 3Q 08 1Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 Net Absorptionwww.colliers.com/cincinnati
  • THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI DEVELOPMENT site that sat vacant for three years. Jeffrey R. Anderson Real Estate will kick off the first phase of From 2008 to 2010, construction of large retail the $125 million development, which will consist developments halted and retail developers were of a 123-room Courtyard by Marriott Hotel sidelined until the economy improved. This lull in and a 16-screen movie theater that includes a activity changed in 2011, as new developments 7,000 square foot restaurant and bar with VIP broke ground, and one project continues to move balcony seating. forward along Cincinnati’s central riverfront. AVG. ASKING RATES (PER SF-FULL SERVICE GROSS) Oakley Station in Oakley landed the first anchor Construction at The Banks, a mixed-use Strip Neighborhood All Property Types tenant at the $120 million mixed-use development $15 development, remained active for most of the year planned for the site of the former Milacron factory. $14 and will continue as another restaurant signed on Cinemark NexGen, a Plano, Texas company, said it $13 this quarter. Tin Roof signed a lease for 5,000 will open its first local theater at this site developed $12 square feet and will join Johnny Rockets, Holy by Vandercar Holdings. In addition to the 55,000 $11 Grail, Hueys 24/7 Diner, La Crepe Nanour, The square foot theater, the developer is planning $10 Wine Loft and Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar & Grill. 350,000 square feet of retail space, 250,000 $9 The developer of the long-anticipated Rookwood square feet of office space and 300 apartments. 3Q 08 1Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 Exchange decided to break ground on the NorwoodUPDATE Recent TransactionsTHIRD QUARTER ACTIVITYPROPERTY TRADE AREA PROPERTY SIZEMenards Miamisburg Lyons Crossing 200,000Joann Fabrics Florence Home Depot Center 49,645Ross Dress for Less Kenton 1950 N. Dixie Highway 30,000Joseph-Beth Booksellers Kenton Crestview Hills Center 20,000A Touch of Class Crescent Springs Edgewood Plaza 20,000Staples Liberty Twp Bridgewater Falls 17,000David Falk/Boca CBD Former Maisonette 15,000Planet Fitness Eastgate Eastgate Square 15,000Treehouse Kids Tri-County Former Arhaus Furniture 14,500Anytime Fitness Liberty Twp The Commons at Liberty Falls 14,000Furnish 123 Tri-County Tri-County Commons 12,000The Gymnastics Center West Cincinnati Marketplace 10,000Indian Grocery Store Sharonville 11955 Lebanon Road 9,000Ace Hardware Milford Mariemont Promenade 8,952Japanese Bistro Central 7800 Montgomery 7,600Chico’s Mason Deerfield Towne Center 7,500Rockler Woodworking Tri-County Cassinelli Square 7,200Rue 21 Colerain Stonecreek Towne Center 6,000Tire Discounters Newport Newport Pavilion 5,900Mike Summons Karate Studio Beechmont 7900 Beechmont Avenue 5,439Tin Roof CBD The Banks 5,000Flipdaddy’s Northeast 12071 Mason-Montgomery Road 4,928Woodridge Veterinary Hospital Northeast 3775-3791 Woodridge Blvd. 4,800Massage Envy West Chester Voice of America 4,379Five Guys Burgers Western Hills 6211 Glenway Avenue 4,300Classy & Sassy Ft. Mitchell Expressway Plaza 4,000Buffalo Wings and Rings Northwest Brentwood Plaza 4,000Transactions are believed to be accurate but not guaranteed. P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI TOTAL DIRECT SUBLEASE TOTAL VACANCY PRIOR QUARTER NET YTD NET AVERAGE INVENTORY VACANT SF VACANT SF VACANT SF RATE VACANCY RATE ABSORPTION ABSORPTION ASKING RATEBOONE COUNTYCommunity 208,255 5,590 0 5,590 2.7% 2.0% -1,393 -1,393 $21.00Convenience / Strip 586,633 121,274 0 121,274 20.7% 20.6% -360 16,288 $12.44Freestanding 1,088,897 98,515 0 98,515 9.0% 9.0% 0 17,083 $7.44Neighborhood 1,318,302 80,275 0 80,275 6.1% 6.4% 4,205 25,743 $11.53Power 514,612 49,645 0 49,645 9.6% 9.6% 0 0 $11.00Regional 726,575 209,027 0 209,027 28.8% 28.8% 0 7,997 $14.50TOTAL 4,443,274 564,326 0 564,326 12.7% 12.8% 2,452 65,718 $11.56CAMPBELL COUNTYCommunity 297,095 118,378 0 118,378 39.8% 39.8% 0 0 $14.27Convenience / Strip 138,525 5,340 0 5,340 3.9% 3.9% 0 0 $23.63Freestanding 612,202 99,288 0 99,288 16.2% 16.2% 0 22,712 $5.50Neighborhood 491,000 27,072 0 27,072 5.5% 5.2% -1,430 23,610 $15.37Power 288,000 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 3,550Regional 696,952 11,210 0 11,210 1.6% 1.6% 0 90,691 $12.00Street Front 75,000 20,463 0 20,463 27.3% 27.3% 0 7,948 $16.00TOTAL 2,598,774 281,751 0 281,751 10.8% 10.8% -1,430 148,511 $11.68CBD/MIDTOWNCommunity 1,192,233 27,718 0 27,718 2.3% 1.6% -8,976 141,026 $14.38Convenience / Strip 313,428 52,833 0 52,833 16.9% 17.0% 448 2,686 $16.72Freestanding 633,389 135,698 0 135,698 21.4% 21.4% 0 -9,198 $6.70Neighborhood 516,680 32,878 0 32,878 6.4% 3.7% -13,543 15,126 $15.88Regional 917,155 22,434 0 22,434 2.4% 0.0% -22,434 12,566 $29.50Street Front 246,382 47,283 0 47,283 19.2% 19.2% 0 23,379 $9.75TOTAL 3,819,267 318,844 0 318,844 8.3% 7.2% -44,505 185,585 $11.19EASTCommunity 455,182 3,500 0 3,500 0.8% 0.8% 0 0 $13.00Convenience / Strip 1,239,582 279,312 5,178 284,490 23.0% 22.7% -2,603 33,861 $11.60Freestanding 2,433,661 53,620 0 53,620 2.2% 2.2% 0 33,400 $6.96Neighborhood 1,570,426 232,172 0 232,172 14.8% 14.9% 1,105 23,050 $9.44Regional 833,195 234,550 0 234,550 28.2% 28.4% 1,890 58,266 $12.11TOTAL 6,532,046 803,154 5,178 808,332 12.4% 12.4% 392 148,577 $10.53KENTON COUNTYCommunity 314,930 5,900 0 5,900 1.9% 1.9% 0 0 $18.00Convenience / Strip 285,549 25,395 0 25,395 8.9% 12.2% 9,330 24,930 $14.38Freestanding 407,547 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0Neighborhood 1,189,199 193,660 0 193,660 16.3% 16.9% 7,200 -43,303 $12.78Regional 500,000 1,000 0 1,000 0.2% 0.2% 0 3,367 $26.50TOTAL 2,697,225 225,955 0 225,955 8.4% 9.0% 16,530 -15,006 $13.16NORTH CENTRALCommunity 861,299 105,597 0 105,597 12.3% 19.4% 61,675 67,726 $15.09Convenience / Strip 1,814,827 324,547 0 324,547 17.9% 18.2% 6,355 -7,100 $11.66Freestanding 2,747,970 134,907 0 134,907 4.9% 4.7% -4,593 26,130 $9.77Neighborhood 2,318,323 386,710 68,744 455,454 19.6% 21.3% 38,445 -5,759 $11.04Power 1,227,298 192,560 0 192,560 15.7% 15.7% 0 -10,000 $5.92Regional 1,833,449 230,658 25,000 255,658 13.9% 14.7% 13,806 24,159 $19.81TOTAL 10,803,166 1,374,979 93,744 1,468,723 13.6% 14.7% 115,688 95,156 $12.57NORTHEASTCommunity 644,894 145,007 0 145,007 22.5% 23.6% 7,326 9,579 $14.00Convenience / Strip 1,953,728 311,357 0 311,357 15.9% 15.8% -3,441 -86,551 $14.34Freestanding 1,926,922 75,138 0 75,138 3.9% 1.8% -41,400 -75,138 $13.51Neighborhood 2,474,653 406,729 0 406,729 16.4% 15.8% -16,351 -87,323 $11.09Power 674,550 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0Regional 1,088,356 65,202 0 65,202 6.0% 5.3% -7,132 34,551 $28.53Street Front 67,327 11,317 0 11,317 16.8% 14.1% -1,847 1,086 $13.00TOTAL 8,830,430 1,014,750 0 1,014,750 11.5% 10.8% -62,845 -203,796 $13.78NORTHWESTCommunity 641,537 152,387 0 152,387 23.8% 23.8% 0 42,771 $6.86Convenience / Strip 673,196 172,398 0 172,398 25.6% 26.6% 6,694 -17,460 $13.10Freestanding 2,452,237 395,114 0 395,114 16.1% 16.1% 0 -3,445 $7.04Neighborhood 2,088,316 373,405 0 373,405 17.9% 17.9% 1,000 941 $7.80Regional 918,901 8,071 0 8,071 0.9% 2.3% 13,424 29,424 $27.50TOTAL 6,774,187 1,101,375 0 1,101,375 16.3% 16.6% 21,118 52,231 $8.74WESTCommunity 970,270 133,809 0 133,809 13.8% 13.8% 0 -1,233 $12.00Convenience / Strip 571,351 129,885 0 129,885 22.7% 21.2% -8,848 -14,144 $13.05Freestanding 966,046 88,898 0 88,898 9.2% 4.6% -44,898 -2,365 $12.35Neighborhood 1,413,419 279,777 0 279,777 19.8% 22.5% 38,778 124,023 $11.74Regional 776,510 11,515 0 11,515 1.5% 1.5% 0 3,439 $20.00TOTAL 4,697,596 643,884 0 643,884 13.7% 13.4% -14,968 109,720 $12.22MARKET TOTALSCommunity 5,585,695 697,886 0 697,886 12.5% 13.5% 58,632 258,476 $11.98Convenience / Strip 7,576,819 1,422,341 5,178 1,427,519 18.8% 18.9% 7,575 -47,490 $12.87Free Standing 13,268,871 1,081,178 0 1,081,178 8.1% 7.5% -90,891 9,179 $8.30Neighborhood 13,380,318 2,012,678 68,744 2,081,422 15.6% 16.0% 59,409 76,108 $10.68Power 2,704,460 242,205 0 242,205 9.0% 9.0% 0 -6,450 $7.52Regional 8,291,093 793,667 25,000 818,667 9.9% 9.9% -446 264,460 $18.99Street Front 388,709 79,063 0 79,063 20.3% 19.9% -1,847 32,413 $13.29TOTAL 51,195,965 6,329,018 98,922 6,427,940 12.6% 12.6% 32,432 586,696 $11.75 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATISmaller projects are on the horizon too, as expansion of the “fast casual” restaurant. A fastBrandicorp announced plans for a $2.5 million casual restaurant is a restaurant that does not 512 offices inretail strip center next to the Fort Wright Wal-Mart. offer full table service, but promises a higherThe developer also has plans for a site in Anderson quality food and atmosphere than a fast food 61 countries onTownship, which could possibly include a First restaurant. All over Cincinnati, fast casual restaurants are popping up and expanding across 6 continentsFinancial Bank and a Buffalo Wild Wings at thecorner of Beechmont Avenue and Asbury Road. the market. Notable names in the Cincinnati United States: 125 market are Five Guys Burgers, Firehouse Subs, Canada: 38 Latin America: 18HOTTEST SUBMARKET Chipotle, Hot Head Burritos and SmashBurger. Asia Pacific: 214 These restaurants have been highly active in EMEA: 117One of the hottest submarkets for the third quarter Cincinnati and also throughout the Midwest. • $1.5 billion in annual revenueof 2011 was the North Central Submarket. Thissubmarket posted 115,688 square feet of positive • 979 billion square feet under FORECAST managementabsorption for the quarter. In addition, rental ratesin the North Central Submarket rose to $12.57 per The Greater Cincinnati Retail Market continues to • Over 12,000 professionalssquare foot, as owners took advantage of the show positive signs of growth and we expect topositive activity they are witnessing. Tri-County see the same trend for the balance of 2011. RETAIL TEAM:led the way as Tri-County Commons, Tri-County Vacancy rates will continue to fall slightly, possibly Ken ArbinoMarketplace and Tri-County Towne Center were 25 to 50 basis points in the fourth quarter. Rental +1 513 562 2238major contributors to positive absorption. The rates should remain unchanged, but may uptick Justin T. Rex, MCREoverall vacancy rate for this submarket stands slightly as owners try to take advantage of the +1 513 562 2218at 16.3%. positive activity we have seen. Construction will Morton A. Schwartz move forward and some smaller projects are +1 513 562 2277 expected to be announced by the end ofEXPANSION OF FAST CASUAL Mike Ziegler, CLS the year. +1 513 562 2224RESTAURANTSOne of the biggest trends this quarter was the Jeff Johnston, CPA +1 513 562 2231 RETAIL SUBMARKETS Chris Prosser, CCIM +1 513 562 2232 Steve Timmel, CCIM +1 513 562 2221 CEO/PRESIDENT: NORTH NORTHEAST Shenan P. Murphy, CCIM +1 513 721 4200 CENTRAL DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH: Brian T. Graham, CCIM NORTHWEST +1 513 562 2214 GRAPHIC DESIGNER: Ricky Dennis +1 513 562 2213 EAST CBD WEST MIDTOWN Colliers International | Greater Cincinnati 425 Walnut Street, Suite 1200 Cincinnati, OH 45202 Colliers International statistics are audited annually and may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and BOONE KENTON CAMPBELL final year-end figures Accelerating success.www.colliers.com/cincinnati