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second half 2011 | officeGLOBAL officeHIGHLIGHTS                                                Global Office Demand Growt...
highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALlocal measure / currency cbd rents                                         ...
highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBAL local measure / currency cbd rents                                        ...
highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALlocal measure / currency cbd rents                                         ...
highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALlocal measure / currency cbd rents                                         ...
highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALGlossaryClass A Gross Rent – The average rent quoted per            Time Pe...
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Colliers Global Office Highlights second half 2011

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Colliers International Research has just released Global Office Highlights H2 2011 covering all global markets across Asia Pacific, EMEA (Europe Middle East and Africa), Latin America and North America. The biannual report from Colliers International consists of gross and net average rental rates (data as of December 31, 2011) of grade A office space as well as forecast for 2012 onwards. According to Colliers International’s research, global vacancy rates will continue to decrease due to the steady demand and low levels of construction particularly in North America and Europe. Another positive trend in many leading markets is the increased interest in occupiers towards higher quality office space or better locations when renewing their leases.

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Transcript of "Colliers Global Office Highlights second half 2011"

  1. 1. second half 2011 | officeGLOBAL officeHIGHLIGHTS Global Office Demand Growth Slow and Steady JAMES COOK Director of Research | USA Global Office Trend Forecast • Global office vacancies will continue their decline, due to steady demand and low levels of new construction in North America and Europe. GLOBAL CAPITALIZATION RATES / • The“flight to quality” trend will continue in many major markets, with occupiers trading up to higher-quality space or a PRIMe YIELDS: 10 Lowest cities better location as their leases expire. • TheEuropean sovereign debt crisis will likely push the Eurozone into a mild recession in early 2012. This contraction CBD CAP RATE (%) will be felt most profoundly in a handful of commercial property markets within the most troubled nations. MARKET (Ranked by dec June dec Economic prospects in the Eurozone have slightly reduced overall positive global expectations for market performance in Dec 2011) 2011 2011 2010 2012. We expect continuing modest demand for office space, with most cities seeing a drop in vacancy rates. But global Taipei 2.60 2.80 2.90 averages do not speak to the nuances of individual markets, and—while we expect positive absorption due to business growth and expansion in the United States, China and Australia—some Eurozone countries may see negative absorption Hong Kong 2.94 3.22 3.31 and increased vacancy as the region enters a mild recession. Vienna 3.50 3.50 3.50 Latin America Boasts the Tightest Office Markets each has shown apparent decline in rents between June London – West End 4.00 4.00 4.50 Some of the world’s lowest office vacancy rates are found and December of 2011, when quoted in U.S. dollars. Zurich 4.10 4.10 4.10 in Latin American cities. Santiago, Chile; Rio de Janeiro, Substantial declines, in fact: led by a $10.87 USD drop in Brazil; São Paulo, Brazil; and Lima, Peru all have vacancy Parisian Class A rents. Singapore 4.20 4.30 4.20 rates below three percent, resulting in a market that Geneva 4.25 4.00 4.00 strongly favors landlords, prompts new construction and But how significant are these figures? The change in might squeeze some tenants that desire to expand. For the London and Paris rents is due to the strengthening dollar Beijing 4.32 5.93 6.59 relative to the euro and pound sterling. In local currency, most part, we expect the strength of these markets to Paris 4.50 4.50 4.75 persist. While decreases in European demand for its prime rents in these markets are holding ground. Although Munich 4.50 4.50 4.50 commodities will likely hurt Latin America, this will be smaller, the decline in Hong Kong of $7.56 USD ($5.10 HKD) tempered by continued demand from China. In São Paolo, per square foot may be a more important indicator of things Tokyo 4.50 4.60 4.70 to come, as demand from the banking and financial sector heightened demand has spurred the highest rates of new development in the region, which will eventually put continue to weaken. downward pressure on asking rents. EMEA and Asia Pacific Lead Global Construction GLOBAL OFFICE OCCUPANCY COSTS: A significant percentage of the office space under TOP 10 CITIES Select Asia Pacific Markets See Big Vacancy Drops The global trend in dropping vacancy rates should be evi- construction is in Europe, the Middle East and Africa dent in Asia and continue through 2012. Markets that saw (EMEA), and much of that is occurring in Moscow and CLASS A / NET RENT (USD/SQ FT) Dubai. While both of these markets should expect strong a drop in vacancy in the second half of 2011 outnumbered MARKET by a two-to-one margin those where vacancy increased. economic growth in 2012, the fact that Dubai—with a (Ranked by dec June dec vacancy rate of 50 percent—is constructing at such a pace Dec 2011) 2011 2011 2010 Of the world’s most populous markets, those with the most leads us to expect that supply will continue to outpace significant declines in six-month vacancy rates were nearly demand in that market. Hong Kong 178.34 185.91 166.62 all in the Asia Pacific region. Chengdu, propelled by its London – West End 120.31 124.50 108.28 strong manufacturing sector, saw its vacancy rate drop by The other two top markets for office construction are in the Paris 90.26 101.13 92.31 7.8 percent in the period, and Shanghai saw a 3.2 percent Asia Pacific region. Guangzhou—China’s leading drop in vacancy. commercial port city—and Tokyo have 19.6 and 15.6 million Rio de Janeiro 78.98 85.70 79.89 square feet under construction respectively. Asian economic Two other large Asian markets saw vacancy rates drop by growth rates will remain strong in the coming months, with Moscow 75.78 64.86 77.54 1.5 percent or more: Jakarta, which has also seen China and India leading the pack. Rents are on the rise in London – City 75.29 77.91 75.02 sustained growth in CBD rental rates and renewed global most cities in the region. However, dropping rents in Seoul Perth 68.73 69.76 55.29 investor interest; and Singapore, where occupancies are and Hong Kong are a potential indicator of global economic expected to stabilize. uncertainty. In Tokyo, where new supply has been increasing Singapore 65.81 69.21 57.80 for the past three years, we expect construction to peak and Geneva 65.31 72.83 64.20 Marquee Markets See Rent Decline begin to decline in the coming year. While Hong Kong, London’s West End and Paris command São Paulo 63.43 71.42 60.71 the top three highest asking rents for Class A office space,www.colliers.com
  2. 2. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALlocal measure / currency cbd rents cbd rent cbd rent us MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr Average cbd cap exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE Average class a rate quoted TIME rate (USD) class a class a class a Gross / primeMARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD Dec 31, 2011 net rent gross rent net rent rent yield (%)asia pacificAdelaide Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 350.00 460.00 33.18 43.61 7.63Brisbane Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 615.00 745.00 58.30 70.62 7.50Canberra Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 367.00 445.00 34.79 42.19 9.98Melbourne Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 498.00 613.00 47.21 58.11 7.00Perth Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 725.00 880.00 68.73 83.42 8.00Sydney Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 631.00 762.00 59.82 72.24 6.95Beijing China SM CNY Month 6.29 313.69 343.69 55.54 60.85 4.32Chengdu China SM CNY Month 6.29 143.76 162.51 25.45 28.77 7.20Guangzhou China SM CNY Month 6.29 158.82 215.80 28.12 38.21 6.25Hong Kong China SF HKD Month 7.77 115.45 133.39 178.34 206.06 2.94Shanghai China SM CNY Month 6.29 249.89 249.89 44.27 44.27 6.10Bangalore India SF INR Month 53.06 55.00 65.00 12.44 14.70 9.90Chennai India SF INR Month 53.06 60.00 70.00 13.57 15.83 10.00Delhi India SF INR Month 53.06 222.00 261.00 50.21 59.03 9.00Mumbai India SF INR Month 53.06 191.00 225.00 43.20 50.89 10.56Jakarta Indonesia SM IDR Month 9,070.00 132,753.00 188,164.00 16.31 23.12 8.10Tokyo Japan SM JPY Year 77.12 91,476.00 110.17 4.50Auckland New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.29 307.00 434.00 22.17 31.34 8.66Wellington New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.29 343.00 439.00 24.77 31.70 8.30Makati Philippines SM PHP Month 43.80 850.00 21.63 9.40Singapore Singapore SF SGD Month 1.30 7.11 8.93 65.81 82.65 4.20Seoul South Korea SM KRW Month 1,158.10 22,883.00 26,867.00 22.02 25.85 5.80Taipei Taiwan PING TWD Month 30.27 2,450.00 2,940.00 26.98 32.38 2.60Bangkok Thailand SM THB Month 31.55 665.00 712.00 23.49 25.15EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA)Vienna Austria SM EUR Month 0.77 18.00 26.00 3.50Antwerp Belgium SM EUR Month 0.77 10.40 15.02 7.25Sofia* Bulgaria SM EUR Month 0.77 9.00 13.00 9.00Zagreb* Croatia SM EUR Month 0.77 12.50 18.05 9.25Prague* Czech Republic SM EUR Month 0.77 17.00 24.55 6.20Copenhagen Denmark SM DKK Month 5.73 108.30 21.06 5.00Cairo Egypt SM USD Month 1.00 21.80 24.30 9.00Tallinn Estonia SM EUR Month 0.77 13.30 19.21 7.50Helsinki Finland SM EUR Month 0.77 22.00 31.77 5.75Bordeaux France SM EUR Month 0.77 13.50 19.50 6.50Lyon France SM EUR Month 0.77 18.80 27.15 6.00Montepelier France SM EUR Month 0.77 12.50 18.05 7.00Paris France SM EUR Month 0.77 62.50 90.26 4.50Berlin Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 19.00 27.44 5.00Düsseldorf Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 20.00 28.88 5.25Frankfurt Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 30.00 43.33 5.20Hamburg Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 22.00 31.77 4.70Munich Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 27.00 38.99 4.50Stuttgart Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 14.20 20.51 5.40Athens* Greece SM EUR Month 0.77 14.00 20.22 7.50Budapest* Hungary SM EUR Month 0.77 12.50 18.05 7.75Dublin Ireland SM EUR Month 0.77 20.00 28.88 7.50Milan Italy SM EUR Month 0.77 40.00 57.77 5.50Rome Italy SM EUR Month 0.77 29.00 41.88 6.00* Rents reflect combined A and B Class. Colliers International | p. 2
  3. 3. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBAL local measure / currency cbd rents cbd rent cbd rent us MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr Average cbd cap exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE Average class a rate quoted TIME rate (USD) class a class a class a Gross / prime MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD Dec 31, 2011 net rent gross rent net rent rent yield (%) EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) continued Riga Latvia SM EUR Month 0.77 12.00 17.33 8.00 Vilnius Lithuania SM EUR Month 0.77 13.10 18.92 8.50 Amsterdam Netherlands SM EUR Month 0.77 17.10 24.70 6.50 Oslo Norway SM NOK Year 5.98 3,250.00 50.49 5.50 Warsaw* Poland SM EUR Month 0.77 22.60 32.64 6.25 Lisbon Portugal SM EUR Month 0.77 15.00 21.66 7.50 Bucharest* Romania SM EUR Month 0.77 15.00 21.66 8.25 Moscow Russia SM USD Month 1.00 68.00 75.78 9.50 Saint Petersburg Russia SM USD Month 1.00 30.70 34.21 11.00 Riyadh Saudi Arabia SM SAR Year 3.75 1,200.00 29.72 10.00 Belgrade* Serbia SM EUR Month 0.77 13.00 18.77 9.00 Bratislava* Slovakia SM EUR Month 0.77 11.45 16.54 7.50 Madrid Spain SM EUR Month 0.77 24.00 34.66 5.75 Stockholm Sweden SM SEK Year 6.91 4,500.00 60.52 5.00 Geneva Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.94 55.00 65.31 4.25 Zurich Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.94 40.00 47.50 4.10 Istanbul Turkey SM USD Month 1.00 31.05 34.60 7.00 Kyiv* Ukraine SM USD Month 1.00 33.00 36.78 11.00 Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 33.10 36.89 10.00 Dubai United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 35.79 39.89 10.00 Belfast United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 12.50 19.40 6.25 Birmingham United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.60 6.00 Bristol United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 24.00 37.26 6.25 Edinburgh United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.60 6.00 Glasgow United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 23.00 35.70 6.00 London – City United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 48.50 75.29 5.25 London – West End United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 77.50 120.31 4.00 Manchester United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 22.00 34.15 6.00 LATIN AMERICA Buenos Aires Argentina SM USD Month 1.00 28.60 32.00 31.87 35.66 9.50 Rio de Janeiro Brazil SM BRL Month 1.86 132.00 152.50 78.98 91.25 10.50 São Paulo Brazil SM BRL Month 1.86 106.00 131.00 63.43 78.39 Santiago Chile SM USD Month 1.00 23.51 27.97 26.20 31.17 8.31 Bogotá Colombia SM USD Month 1.00 27.40 30.30 30.54 33.77 8.30 San José Costa Rica SM USD Month 1.00 17.30 19.21 19.28 21.41 9.54 Mexico City Mexico SM USD Month 1.00 27.00 30.00 30.09 33.43 9.00 Panama Panama SM USD Year 1.00 20.00 24.00 1.86 2.23 Lima Peru SM USD Month 1.00 18.83 24.58 20.99 27.39 12.50* Rents reflect combined A and B Class. Colliers International | p. 3
  4. 4. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALlocal measure / currency cbd rents cbd rent cbd rent us MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr cbd cap average rate exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE average class a / prime quoted TIME rate (usd) class a class a class a gross yieldMARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD dec 31, 2011 net rent gross rent net rent rent (%)north AMERICACalgary Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 36.00 55.38 35.24 54.21 6.00Edmonton Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 22.33 39.90 21.86 39.06 6.44Guelph Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 16.00 27.36 15.66 26.78 7.25Halifax Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 17.05 31.82 16.69 31.15Montréal Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.24 42.00 22.75 41.11 6.75Ottawa Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 27.07 48.36 26.50 47.34 7.25Regina Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 22.00 37.00 21.53 36.22 7.00Saskatoon Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 25.00 37.00 24.47 36.22 7.00Toronto Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 53.31 52.18 5.90Vancouver Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 34.60 54.50 33.87 53.35 5.50Victoria Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.78 37.78 23.28 36.98 6.25Waterloo Region, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 13.99 25.36 13.69 24.82 7.25Atlanta United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.23 22.73 11.23 22.73 8.60Bakersfield United States USD SF Year 1.00 9.31 17.40 9.31 17.40Baltimore United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.41 22.41 11.41 22.41Boise United States USD SF Year 1.00 12.62 18.62 12.62 18.62Boston United States USD SF Year 1.00 27.75 47.75 27.75 47.75 5.30Charleston United States USD SF Year 1.00 19.14 29.14 19.14 29.14 8.00Charlotte United States USD SF Year 1.00 24.27 24.27Chicago United States USD SF Year 1.00 14.50 35.00 14.50 35.00 6.50Cincinnati United States USD SF Year 1.00 13.87 23.37 13.87 23.37 9.75Cleveland United States USD SF Year 1.00 20.68 20.68Columbia United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.75 19.15 11.75 19.15Columbus United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.07 18.80 11.07 18.80Dallas/Fort Worth United States USD SF Year 1.00 15.00 25.00 15.00 25.00 7.80Denver United States USD SF Year 1.00 12.19 28.04 12.19 28.04 6.00Detroit United States USD SF Year 1.00 22.46 22.46Fresno United States USD SF Year 1.00 17.90 26.00 17.90 26.00 9.00Ft. Lauderdale- United States USD SF Year 1.00 17.76 31.26 17.76 31.26 6.30BrowardGrand Rapids United States USD SF Year 1.00 13.02 20.97 13.02 20.97 9.00Greenville United States USD SF Year 1.00 10.48 20.63 10.48 20.63Hartford United States USD SF Year 1.00 10.26 22.76 10.26 22.76 9.00Honolulu United States USD SF Year 1.00 18.60 34.80 18.60 34.80Houston United States USD SF Year 1.00 24.92 35.29 24.92 35.29 6.60Indianapolis United States USD SF Year 1.00 12.27 19.27 12.27 19.27 8.50Jacksonville United States USD SF Year 1.00 9.22 19.12 9.22 19.12Kansas City United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.57 19.57 11.57 19.57Las Vegas United States USD SF Year 1.00 20.08 31.08 20.08 31.08 Colliers International | p. 4
  5. 5. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALlocal measure / currency cbd rents cbd rent cbd rent us MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr cbd cap average rate exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE average class a / prime quoted time rate (usd) class a net class a class a gross yieldMARKET COUNTRY unit currency period dec 31, 2011 rent gross rent net rent rent (%)NORTH AMERICA continuedLittle Rock United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.35 15.60 8.35 15.60 9.50Los Angeles United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.52 38.52 22.52 38.52 7.00Louisville United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.34 20.34Memphis United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.40 16.65 8.40 16.65Miami-Dade United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.75 41.25 25.75 41.25Minneapolis United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.33 14.33Nashville United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.57 22.57New York – Downtown United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.17 48.17 25.17 48.17 6.00ManhattanNew York – Midtown United States SF USD Year 1.00 35.72 67.72 35.72 67.72 5.50ManhattanNew York – Midtown S. United States SF USD Year 1.00 28.83 48.83 28.83 48.83 5.25ManhattanOakland United States SF USD Year 1.00 18.18 31.68 18.18 31.68 8.00Oklahoma City United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.18 17.18 10.18 17.18Omaha United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.29 19.29 10.29 19.29Orlando United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.06 24.06 13.06 24.06 8.80Philadelphia United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.89 26.41 14.89 26.41 8.00Phoenix United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.87 27.87 14.87 27.87Pittsburgh United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.00 27.50 17.00 27.50 8.25Pleasanton/Walnut Creek United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.08 27.48 27.48 8.00Portland United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.20 25.20 15.20 25.20Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.56 22.56 15.56 22.56 8.00Reno United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.04 23.04Sacramento United States SF USD Year 1.00 32.34 32.34San Diego United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.46 28.32 13.46 28.32San Francisco United States SF USD Year 1.00 41.12 41.12 5.50San Jose/Silicon Valley United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.54 32.04 17.54 32.04Savannah United States SF USD Year 1.00 12.20 19.20 12.20 19.20 9.50Seattle/Puget Sound United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.64 30.11 19.64 30.11 7.63St. Louis United States SF USD Year 1.00 7.28 17.78 7.28 17.78 9.25St. Paul, MN United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.33 11.33Stamford United States SF USD Year 1.00 28.16 41.16 28.16 41.16 8.00Stockton/San Joaquin County United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.52 21.12 17.52 21.12 8.30Tampa United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.61 22.61 13.61 22.61 8.00Washington, DC United States SF USD Year 1.00 30.85 52.85 30.85 52.85 5.75West Palm Beach/Palm Beach United States SF USD Year 1.00 21.81 36.81 21.81 36.81 9.12CountyWhite Plains United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.28 32.28 19.28 32.28 8.00 Colliers International | p. 5
  6. 6. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBALGlossaryClass A Gross Rent – The average rent quoted per Time Period – The standard way in which leases aresquare foot per annum for Class A office building within quoted. Usually on a per month or per year basis. 512 offices inthe CBD plus additional costs such as property taxes,service charges or operating expenses. Existing Inventory – Existing office floor space (Classes A, B and C) within each city’s CBD (central business 61 countries onClass A Net Rent – The average rent quoted per squarefoot per annum for a Class A office building within the district). Under Construction – The total office floor space 6 continentsCBD. (Classes A, B and C) within each city’s CBD (central United States: 125Class A (Prime) Buildings – Most prestigious building business district) which is under construction, but not Canada: 38competing for premier office users with rents above yet completed, giving an indication of the development Latin America: 18average for the area. Buildings have high quality pipeline for each market. This includes both available Asia Pacific: 214standard for finishes, state-of-the-art systems, and pre-let floor space. EMEA: 117exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence. Unit – The normal convention locally in which area is measured. Usually on a per square foot or per square • $1.5 billion in annual revenueCharacterized by: Prime central locations; first-classtenant improvements; on-site parking; state of the art meter basis. million square feet under • 979elevators and HVAC systems; concrete and steel Vacancy Rate (%) – The percentage of the inventory managementconstruction; contemporary design and architecture; (total completed office floor space, Classes A, B and C, • Over 12,500 professionalshigh quality of upkeep and maintenance; ability to within the CBD) which is unoccupied.command a premium rent within the relevant market.The Class A building designation implies that the size of Yield (%) – The average prime yield (or capitalization rate), expressed as a percentage, for a Class A office COLLIERS INTERNATIONALthe building is “significant” in accordance with themarket. building within the CBD. 601 Union Street, Suite 4800 SF Note: = square feet Seattle, WA 98101 USAQuoted Currency – The currency quoted locally in alllease transactions. Not necessarily national currency. SM = square meter tel +1 206 695 4200(Note: Chile utilizes Unidad de Fomento, which equals PSF = per square footUSD 24.30) PSM = per square meter CBD = central business district Copyright © 2012 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for anyGLOBAL RESEARCH CONTACTS inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.Americas ASIA PACIFICJames Cook Simon LoUSA Asiajames.cook@colliers.com simon.lo@colliers.comJeff Simonson Amit OberoiUSA Indiajeff.simonson@colliers.com amit.oberoi@colliers.com Nerida ConisbeeEurope, Middle East Australia/New Zealandand Africa nerida.conisbee@colliers.comThomas Grounds Yumiko YasudaEMEA Japanthomas.grounds@colliers.com yumiko.yasuda@colliers.comMark CharltonUnited Kingdommark.charlton@colliers.comDamian HarringtonCentral and Eastern Europedamian.harrington@colliers.comRenaud RogerFrancerroger@colliers-ufgpm.fr Accelerating success.www.colliers.com

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