NERCOMP: Web Governance - Planning for Disruption

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Only some emerging technologies will become disruptive. Can we identify which ones? If so, how? We'll survey some current methods for: analyzing present conditions, examining trends on the horizon, …

Only some emerging technologies will become disruptive. Can we identify which ones? If so, how? We'll survey some current methods for: analyzing present conditions, examining trends on the horizon, spotting which might become disruptive, and preparing for the unexpected.

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  • 1. Planning for Disruption:Governance, Strategy, and Management in a Web 3.0 World February 7, 2011 Jay Collier • B. S. Wise
  • 2. “An act of delayingor interrupting the continuity”
  • 3. “A ‘disruptive innovation’ is aninnovation that transforms an existingmarket or sector — or creates a newone — by introducing simplicity,convenience, accessibility, reliability,and affordability”
  • 4. SURVEYMost disruptive of 20th century? 40 Air travel 8% 30 Electricity 39% The Internet 38% 20 Nuclear weapons 4% 10 The Pill 3% 0 Untitled 1
  • 5. SURVEYWho is most responsible? 50 Agile incumbents 13% 37.5 Early adopters 34% 25 Investors 6% 12.5 Scrappy upstarts 47% 0
  • 6. SURVEYWhich have been most disruptive? Proprietary systems ! Open software and standards Text interfaces ! Graphical Web browsers Landlines ! Cell phones and network access Wired modems ! Broadband and wireless networks Real-time video viewing ! Digital video recorders Centralized servers ! Peer-to-peer file sharing Expensive mainframes ! Cheap portable storage Content management ! Free blogging services Video studios ! YouTube and camcorders Local storage ! Cloud computing, accessed anywhere
  • 7. The way it was ... David DeHeter
  • 8. The way it was ... Luis Argerich
  • 9. The way it has been ... NASA Goddard Photo and Video
  • 10. The way it will be ... GE Healthcare
  • 11.
  • 12. docsearls
  • 13. Andrew de Poda
  • 14. Martin Luff
  • 15. Martin Luff
  • 16. • Inventory local conditions• Survey underground pressures• Evolve agile practices Assoc. Bay Area Governments
  • 17. Inventory local conditions David de Hetre
  • 18. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSBusiness context Mission Statement Ford Motor Company: Values Statement We are a global family with a proud Microsoft: heritage passionately committed to providing personal mobility for honesty, Competitors/constituents We value integrity, people around the world.Amnesty International: openness, personal excellence, constructive self-criticism, SWOT Statement • UN Human Rights Commission continual self-improvement, and mutual respect. Strengths Weaknesses • Médcins Sans Frontières Expertise Location Marketing Distribution Innovative svc. Quality • Human Rights Watch Opportunities Threats International Price war Mergers Regulations
  • 19. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSGovernance framework Marc Smith, Colin Project Perfect, Level Five Solutions
  • 20. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSDefinitions for success 30 Lines, David Carrington, Wesley Fryer
  • 21. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSCurrent staff and budgeting structure Matthew Cua, D’Arcy Norman, Jay Collier
  • 22. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSDomain architecture Jay Collier
  • 23. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSTactical priorities
  • 24. Survey underground pressures Stephen Jones
  • 25. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESEnvironmental scan
  • 26. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESVirtual prediction markets
  • 27. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESDelphi forecasting method ADOPTION WITHIN ONE YEAR Mobile computing & open content ADOPTION WITHIN THREE YEARS Electronic books & simple augmented reality ADOPTION WITHIN FIVE YEARS Gesture-based computing & visual data analysis
  • 28. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESScenario development Communications technology scenarios 2015 Digital The Wide The Long Great World of ImbricationBalkanization Open World Recession Points Nation Course management Libraries E-books Collaboration tools Scholarly communication Administrative computing Computer hardware Professional development NITLE
  • 29. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESSystems approach Jay Collier, Wikipedia
  • 30. Prepare for unexpected challenges San Jose Library
  • 32. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION2. Listen Pelle Sten, Tim Pierce, Kristen Wolff
  • 33. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION3. Prioritize Eliatt, Jay Collier
  • 34. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION4. Prototype Text
  • 35. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION5. Formalize Rob Enslin, Babak Fakhamzadeh, Daniel Panev
  • 36. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION6. Operationalize Robert Higgins, Perhapstoopink, UMass, EDUCAUSE
  • 37. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION7. Iterate 1996 2001 2006 Wikipedia
  • 38. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION8. Evaluate sBenefits (revenue, lead generation) - Costs (people, materials) = ROI Bill McChesney, TopRankBlog
  • 39. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION9. Repeat Awareness Knowledge Selection Satisfaction Loyalty Advocacy Robin Corps
  • 40. Planning for Disruption:Governance, Strategy, and Managementin a Web 3.0 Collier • B. S. Wise