Planning for Disruption:Governance, Strategy, and Management         in a Web 3.0 World            February 7, 2011    Jay...
“An act of delayingor interrupting the continuity”
“A ‘disruptive innovation’ is aninnovation that transforms an existingmarket or sector — or creates a newone — by introduc...
SURVEYMost disruptive of 20th century?                                       40                                           ...
SURVEYWho is most responsible?                           50                                 Agile incumbents 13%          ...
SURVEYWhich have been most disruptive?    Proprietary systems    !   Open software and standards         Text interfaces  ...
The way it was ...                     David DeHeter
The way it was ...                     Luis Argerich
The way it has been ...                          NASA Goddard Photo and Video
The way it will be ...                         GE Healthcare
Vizzzual.com
docsearls
Andrew de Poda
Martin Luff
Martin Luff
• Inventory local conditions• Survey underground pressures• Evolve agile practices                      Assoc. Bay Area Go...
Inventory local  conditions                  David de Hetre
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSBusiness context  Mission Statement  Ford Motor Company:              Values Statement  We are a...
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSGovernance framework                 Marc Smith, Colin   Project Perfect, Level Five Solutions
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSDefinitions for success                       30 Lines, David Carrington, Wesley Fryer
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSCurrent staff and budgeting structure                       Matthew Cua, D’Arcy Norman, Jay Coll...
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSDomain architecture                             Jay Collier
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSTactical priorities
Survey underground     pressures                Stephen Jones
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESEnvironmental scan
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESVirtual prediction markets
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESDelphi forecasting method  ADOPTION WITHIN        ONE YEAR    Mobile computing & open content  AD...
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESScenario development           Communications technology scenarios 2015   Digital       The Wide ...
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESSystems approach                            Jay Collier, Wikipedia
Prepare for unexpected     challenges                  San Jose Library
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION1. Monitor
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION2. Listen                         Pelle Sten, Tim Pierce, Kristen Wolff
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION3. Prioritize                         Eliatt, Jay Collier
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION4. Prototype                         Text
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION5. Formalize                     Rob Enslin, Babak Fakhamzadeh, Daniel Panev
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION6. Operationalize                  Robert Higgins, Perhapstoopink, UMass, EDUCAUSE
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION7. Iterate                                     1996                                     2001        ...
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION8. Evaluate                                                                      sBenefits (revenue,...
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION9. Repeat Awareness   Knowledge   Selection   Satisfaction   Loyalty    Advocacy                    ...
Planning for Disruption:Governance, Strategy, and Managementin a Web 3.0 Worldbit.ly/nercomp_disruptionJay Collier • jay.c...
NERCOMP: Web Governance - Planning for Disruption
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NERCOMP: Web Governance - Planning for Disruption

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Only some emerging technologies will become disruptive. Can we identify which ones? If so, how? We'll survey some current methods for: analyzing present conditions, examining trends on the horizon, spotting which might become disruptive, and preparing for the unexpected.

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NERCOMP: Web Governance - Planning for Disruption

  1. 1. Planning for Disruption:Governance, Strategy, and Management in a Web 3.0 World February 7, 2011 Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com bit.ly/nercomp_disruption B. S. Wise
  2. 2. “An act of delayingor interrupting the continuity”
  3. 3. “A ‘disruptive innovation’ is aninnovation that transforms an existingmarket or sector — or creates a newone — by introducing simplicity,convenience, accessibility, reliability,and affordability”
  4. 4. SURVEYMost disruptive of 20th century? 40 Air travel 8% 30 Electricity 39% The Internet 38% 20 Nuclear weapons 4% 10 The Pill 3% 0 Untitled 1
  5. 5. SURVEYWho is most responsible? 50 Agile incumbents 13% 37.5 Early adopters 34% 25 Investors 6% 12.5 Scrappy upstarts 47% 0
  6. 6. SURVEYWhich have been most disruptive? Proprietary systems ! Open software and standards Text interfaces ! Graphical Web browsers Landlines ! Cell phones and network access Wired modems ! Broadband and wireless networks Real-time video viewing ! Digital video recorders Centralized servers ! Peer-to-peer file sharing Expensive mainframes ! Cheap portable storage Content management ! Free blogging services Video studios ! YouTube and camcorders Local storage ! Cloud computing, accessed anywhere
  7. 7. The way it was ... David DeHeter
  8. 8. The way it was ... Luis Argerich
  9. 9. The way it has been ... NASA Goddard Photo and Video
  10. 10. The way it will be ... GE Healthcare
  11. 11. Vizzzual.com
  12. 12. docsearls
  13. 13. Andrew de Poda
  14. 14. Martin Luff
  15. 15. Martin Luff
  16. 16. • Inventory local conditions• Survey underground pressures• Evolve agile practices Assoc. Bay Area Governments
  17. 17. Inventory local conditions David de Hetre
  18. 18. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSBusiness context Mission Statement Ford Motor Company: Values Statement We are a global family with a proud Microsoft: heritage passionately committed to providing personal mobility for honesty, Competitors/constituents We value integrity, people around the world.Amnesty International: openness, personal excellence, constructive self-criticism, SWOT Statement • UN Human Rights Commission continual self-improvement, and mutual respect. Strengths Weaknesses • Médcins Sans Frontières Expertise Location Marketing Distribution Innovative svc. Quality • Human Rights Watch Opportunities Threats International Price war Mergers Regulations
  19. 19. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSGovernance framework Marc Smith, Colin Project Perfect, Level Five Solutions
  20. 20. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSDefinitions for success 30 Lines, David Carrington, Wesley Fryer
  21. 21. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSCurrent staff and budgeting structure Matthew Cua, D’Arcy Norman, Jay Collier
  22. 22. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSDomain architecture Jay Collier
  23. 23. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONSTactical priorities
  24. 24. Survey underground pressures Stephen Jones
  25. 25. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESEnvironmental scan
  26. 26. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESVirtual prediction markets
  27. 27. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESDelphi forecasting method ADOPTION WITHIN ONE YEAR Mobile computing & open content ADOPTION WITHIN THREE YEARS Electronic books & simple augmented reality ADOPTION WITHIN FIVE YEARS Gesture-based computing & visual data analysis
  28. 28. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESScenario development Communications technology scenarios 2015 Digital The Wide The Long Great World of ImbricationBalkanization Open World Recession Points Nation Course management Libraries E-books Collaboration tools Scholarly communication Administrative computing Computer hardware Professional development NITLE
  29. 29. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURESSystems approach Jay Collier, Wikipedia
  30. 30. Prepare for unexpected challenges San Jose Library
  31. 31. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION1. Monitor
  32. 32. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION2. Listen Pelle Sten, Tim Pierce, Kristen Wolff
  33. 33. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION3. Prioritize Eliatt, Jay Collier
  34. 34. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION4. Prototype Text
  35. 35. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION5. Formalize Rob Enslin, Babak Fakhamzadeh, Daniel Panev
  36. 36. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION6. Operationalize Robert Higgins, Perhapstoopink, UMass, EDUCAUSE
  37. 37. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION7. Iterate 1996 2001 2006 Wikipedia
  38. 38. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION8. Evaluate sBenefits (revenue, lead generation) - Costs (people, materials) = ROI Bill McChesney, TopRankBlog
  39. 39. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION9. Repeat Awareness Knowledge Selection Satisfaction Loyalty Advocacy Robin Corps
  40. 40. Planning for Disruption:Governance, Strategy, and Managementin a Web 3.0 Worldbit.ly/nercomp_disruptionJay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com B. S. Wise
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