Catalan Independence

Perception survey Catalonia / Spain MAIN RESULTS November 2009 Research by Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. Director: Miquel Strubell (Identi.Cat research group) Field work and data analysis: Instituto DYM With the support of the Centre of Contemporary Studies of Catalonia (CETC) NOTE: this document has been translated by volunteers. If in doubt refer to the Catalan original file. Ref.: 09472183 Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 1

TECHNICAL FILE TECHNICAL FILE DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION REFERENDUM REACTIONS INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 2

Technical File Data collection Interviews with Computer Aided Technology Inc (C.A.T.I.). Fieldwork dates From September 14 to October 2, 2009. Questionnaire Designed by the working team, and thereafter revised and adpated by Instituto DYM to C.A.T.I. methodology Language preference Questions have been formulated in Catalan or Spanish according to preference of interviewed person. Universe Population between15 and 74 (both included). Span Catalonia Sample selection Random sampling stratified by vegueries (regions) and habitat size. The person to be interviewed within the household was chosen randomly among household members, according to established quotas. Quotas Quotas crossed by region (vegueries), habitat, gender and age, proportional to actual population. Final Sample 2614 interviews Sample error margin +2,0% calculated for a reliability level of 95,5%, under the assumption of maximum statistical indetermination (p=q=50%) according to the sample error formula for infinite universes. Data weighting The weighting of interviews have been equated to the established distribution, so as to correct little deviations. Extra weighting has been introduced according to place of birth, equating it to actual proportion in present demographic data. Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 3

TECHNICAL FILE DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION REFERENDUM REACTIONS INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 4

DEMOCRACY, LAW AND DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION SELF-DETERMINATION In case a democratic decision clashed against the current laws, which do you think should prevail? Base: Total interviews (2.614) NC = No Choice NA= No Answer Current laws; 22% NA; 1% NC; 10% Democratic Principles 67% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 5

SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL Do you think the peoples of the world have the right of self-determination, ie to choose freely and democratically their own political future? Base: Total interviews (2.614) NC = No Choice NA= No Answer In general terms no NC 6,5% 1,1% It depends 3,5% In general terms yes 88,9% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 6

SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL Do the peoples of the world have the right And in the case of Catalonia, does it have of self-determination, ie. deciding their the right of deciding freely and own political future freely and democratically its own political future? democratically? Base: Total interviews (2.614) Base: Total interviews (2.614) NC = No Choice NA= No Answer NC = No Choice NA= No Answer NC 2,6% NA 0,4% No 14,4% In general terms no 6,5% NC 1,1% It depends 3,5% In general term s yes 88,9% Yes 82,6% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 7

REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do? Base: Total interviews (2.614) NA NC 1,4% Vote for 5,8% 50,3% Abstention /refrain from voting 24,6% Vote against 17,8% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 9

REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do? Base: Total interviews (2.614) 19,4 18,8 64,2 9,1 64,5 8,8 25,3 56,3 11,3 26,6 46,3 19,8 20,9 47,2 25,9 Percentages voting for independence 19,3 63,4 11,9 Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 10

REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do? BY PLACE OF BIRTH Base: Total interviews (2.614) No answer 5,5 4,8 3,3 8,4 No choice 21,1 24,3 30,7 31,1 14,9 Abstention / 25,4 11,8 refrain from voting 26,2 Vote against 57,1 53,3 44,8 Vote for 32,6 Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain in the rest of Europe In the rest of the World Over average Under average Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 12

MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence? MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR Base: Vote for (1.376) Peaceful/democratic 65,7 reasons Economic motives 62,3 Feelings or beliefs 58,6 Language and 56,4 cultural reasons Weariness of Spain 29,6 None of the above 0,9 No choice 0,5 No answer 0,1 Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 13

MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence? MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438) Peaceful/democratic Feelings or 65,7 60,8 reasons beliefs Economically Economic motives 62,3 29,3 unfeasible Laws do not Feelings or beliefs 58,6 25,9 allow it Language and Scared of 56,4 25,7 cultural reasons conflict None of the Weariness of Spain 29,6 5,8 above None of the above 0,9 No choice 0,9 No choice 0,5 No answer 0,1 Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 14

MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence? MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST MOTIVES TO ABSTAIN Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438) Base: Abstention (607) Peaceful/democratic Feelings or Not my 65,7 60,8 38,4 reasons beliefs business Economically Feelings or 29,2 Economic motives 62,3 29,3 beliefs unfeasible Scared of Laws do not 25,7 Feelings or beliefs 58,6 25,9 conflict allow it Laws do not Scared of 20,6 Language and allow it 56,4 25,7 cultural reasons conflict Economically 18,5 None of the unfeasible Weariness of Spain 29,6 5,8 above None of the 13,9 above None of the above 0,9 No choice 0,9 No choice 3,2 No choice 0,5 No answer 0,4 No answer 0,1 Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 15

INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO In the case Catalonia became independent... Base: Total interviews (2.614) Do you think the situation of 2,4% 64,6% 29,0% 3,8% Catalan language and culture... 0,2% 7,8% Do you think social w elfare of 54,7% 27,6% 9,7% 0,3% Catalans... Do you think im m igration 30,4% 40,6% 13,1% 15,2% 0,6% policies... Would improve Would stay the same Would worsen NC NA Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 17

INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO Do you agree with the expression: “An independent Catalonia could keep good relations with Spain?” 1,8 2,4 3,8 100 16,9 90 80 37,8 70 59,8 60 NS/NC 50 81,3 En desacord 40 D’acord 58,4 30 20 37,8 10 0 A f avor En contra Abstenció Referendum behaviour Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 18

INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO EUROPEAN UNION Would you be for or against Catalonia being No choice; 1,2% No answer; 0,4% part of the European Union as any other Indifferent; 17,1% member state? Base: Total interviews (2.614) Against; 17,6% For; 63,6% Pensa que una Catalunya independent que formés part de la Unió Europea defensaria millor els interessos dels catalans que en la NS situació actual? 8,1% Base: Total entrevistes (2.614) Si No 71,1% 20,8% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 19

INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO EUROPEAN UNION Would you be for or against Catalonia being No choice; 1,2% No answer; 0,4% part of the European Union as any other Indifferent; 17,1% member state? Base: Total interviews (2.614) Against; 17,6% For; 63,6% Do you think that an independent Catalonia which were part of the European Union would sustain Catalan interests better? NC 8,1% Base: Total interviews (2.614) Yes No 71,1% 20,8% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 20

PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence? Base: Total interviews (2.614) NA 0,5% Rather in favour NC 43,4% 8,3% Rather against 34,4% Half and half 13,4% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 22

PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence? DISTRIBUTION ACCORDING TO REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR Base: Total interviews (2.614) NA 6,9 8,2 9,4 15,0 22,2 NC 38,7 33,9 13,4 63,5 Rather in favour 13,0 20,5 57,2 Half and half 10,7 38,2 29,9 16,9 Rather against Perception of those voting Perception of those voting Perception of those Perception of NC/NA for against abstaining Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 23

FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day? Base: Total interviews (2.614) Yes NA 31,1% 0,1% NC 10,7% No 58,1% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 25

FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day? Base: Total interviews (2.614) DISTRIBUTION BY VEGUERIES OR REGIONS 5.4 9.7 30.4 37.4 59.9 7.7 56.4 40.2 52.1 11.4 29.5 59,0 14.7 38.1 11.4 26.7 47.2 61.8 Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 26

FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day? Base: Total interviews (2.614) BIRTHPLACE DISTRIBUTION 0,1 0 0 0 8,7 14,6 7,7 19,9 42,1 63 55,6 51,4 50,2 28,1 29,8 28,7 Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain In the rest of Europe In the rest of the World Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 27

TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE When do you think Catalonia could become independent? Base: will be independent some day (768) In the next 5 years NC NA 12,1% 4,1% 0,1% In the next 20 years 41,8% In the longer run 41,9% Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 28

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Catalan Independence

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Catalan Independence — Presentation Transcript