4 August 2004
D
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PUBLIC VERSION
P
A
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Iraq Status
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for
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NSC
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UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Highlights
National Conference Postponed
• The IIG, at the request of the United Nations, postponed for two weeks the
D
National Conference in an effort to secure broader representation from varying
E
Iraqi political groups.
P
A NATO Participation Agreement Reached
R
• NATO announced an agreement on establishing a Training Implementation
T
Mission in Iraq. NATO will begin to coordinate training for Iraqi security forces
M
including selected Iraqi headquarters personnel inside Iraq and help identify
E
personnel for training outside Iraq.
N
Powell Visit to Baghdad
T
• Secretary of State Powell traveled to Baghdad this past week visiting with IIG
O leaders and US Mission personnel.
F
Iraqi National Guard and Police Service
• The Iraqi National Guard (ING) and Iraqi Police Service conducted a number of
S
successful operations last week including the discovery of large insurgent
T
weapons caches and a sophisticated terrorist safe house.
A
T
E
N/P 2 UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Governance - Developments
National Conference:
D
• The IIG, at the request of the United Nations, postponed for two weeks the
E
National Conference in an effort to secure broader representation from varying
P
Iraqi political groups.
A
R
T
International Cooperation:
M
E • NATO announced an agreement on establishing a Training Implementation
N Mission in Iraq. The mission will be working closely with the Iraqi authorities to
T help them develop their security structures, in particular in the Ministry of Defense
and military headquarters. NATO will also begin training selected Iraqi
O headquarters personnel inside Iraq and help identify personnel for training outside
F Iraq.
• Secretary of State Colin Powell and Saudi leaders discussed the Saudi proposal
S
for a contribution of Islamic troops to Iraq stabilization efforts.
T
• Prime Minister Allawi concluded his visit with leaders of several Arab countries this
A
week. Areas of discussions included security cooperation and assistance.
T
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 3

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Governance - Developments (Cont)
Capacity Building:
• The State Department is promoting capacity building and democracy through a
D
US-based program for Iraqis.
E
− Civil Society and Civic Education (July 24-August 14): Exploring how civic
P
education provides the the underpinnings for successful participation in a
A
democratic form of government by developing an informed, effective and
R
responsible citizenry. Participants include mayors, governors and civil
T
society leaders.
M
E
• USAID continues capacity building activities for local government:
N
− Management training seminars for local government officials are improving
T
the delivery of essential services.
O • USAID continues Democracy Dialogue Activities (DDA) across Iraq
F
– Promotes civic participation and increases Iraqis’ understanding of
democratic principles and the political process.
S
Polling Data:
T
A
• Latest USG poll (mid July) indicates that the IIG is still popular with the Iraqi
T
people, that security is the number one priority, and that the IIG’s actions get
E
more positive than negative remarks.
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 4

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Water and Sanitation
D
E
• Rehabilitation of a water treatment plant in a poor area of Baghdad governorate is
P
complete.
A
– Nearly 1 million residents are now benefiting from the potable water.
R
T – Before rehabilitation, the plant was operating at 55-60% of capacity of its 3000
M m3/day, but now operates at full capacity.
E
N
• Japan is funding an $11 million UN project to help restore the marshlands of
T
southern Iraq, which were deliberately drained by Saddam Hussein.
O
– Will support sustainable development through environmentally sound
F
technologies, providing drinking water, sanitation and pilot wetland restoration
for the Marsh Arabs.
S
– $3.68 million of the Japanese aid package will be used to buy 26 water trucks
T
and 304 water tanks for the al-Muthanna province’s water department.
A
T
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 5

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Telecommunications
• Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over 1,345,863 (including
523,966 cell phone subscribers) - 61.6% above pre-war levels.
D
E
P
Telephone Subscribers (Fixed and Cell)
A
R
1,600,000
T 1,400,000
1,200,000
M 1,000,000 Cell Phones
800,000
E 600,000 Fixed Phones
400,000
N 200,000
T 0
(As of
18 Jul)
04
04
03
04
04
04
4
4
O
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r_0
n_
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c_
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b_
ar)
Ap
Ma
Ma
De
Ja
Ju
Fe
Ju
W
F
re-
(P
3
r_0
S
Ma
T
• As of 18 Jul, there were 75,000 internet subscribers in Baghdad.
A
T – Pre-war, there was limited service, with 3,000 internet and 8,000 e-mail only
E accounts in 2002.
N/P 6 UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Food Security
• Chart below shows percentage of estimated requirements for Public Distribution
System (PDS) goods from transition on 28 Jun 04 forward.
D
E
Public Distribution System Status
P
A
120%
• The goal of the
R
Ministry of Trade
T 100%
is to provide
M 80%
E sufficient ration 60%
N stocks for the
40%
current month
T
plus a three- 20%
O month buffer. 0%
F
lt
a
k
ap
e
tal
r
Mil
Sa
Te
s
ga
Ric
lse
So
nt
To
il
/O
Su
ge
Pu
t
S
ee
ula
ea
at
ter
ls
he
Gh
rea
Wh
orm
De
al W
Ce
tF
gn
T
tion
an
rei
ing
Inf
Fo
Na
an
We
A
Opening Stocks Scheduled Arrivals Under Existing Contracts (OFF)
T New Procurements MOT New Procurements WFP
E OFF Unconfirmed Contracts
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 7

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Food Security (Cont)
D
E
• The WFP pipeline indicates possible shortfalls in the following commodities over
P
the course of the next three months.
A
R – National wheat (national harvest figures are not yet available), pulses, ghee,
T milk, infant formula, soap and detergent.
M
• MOT has issued tenders for commodities such as infant formula, cheese, and
E
tomato paste into the food ration basket; cheese and tomato paste have been
N
introduced to reduce and offset the individual ration of pulses.
T
• WFP will stop all food shipments to Iraq in August. The pipeline will be reliant on
Ministry of Trade procurement thereafter.
O
F
• For the period of Jul through Sep, WFP projects 35,632 metric tons (mt) of Oil for
Food commodity arrivals, which could be augmented by 35,000 mt of Indian
S
wheat.
T
A
T
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 8

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Health Care
D
• USAID provided $1 million worth of equipment and supplies for Iraqis to better
E
detect, treat, and control disease nationwide.
P
A
– 408,000 people will benefit annually.
R
– Equipment and supplies, which replaced those looted after the recent conflict,
T
include microscopes, freezers and refrigerators, centrifuges, lab sinks, tissue
M
processors, slides, petri dishes, specialized testing agents, and an Amino Acid
E
Analyzer – the first of its kind in Iraq.
N
T • Over 5 million children between the ages of six and 12 have been immunized for
Measles, Mumps, and Rubella.
O
• Over 3 million children under five years of age have been vaccinated since Jun
F
03.
S
T
A
T
E
N/P UNCLASSIFIED
9

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Education
• More than 67,000 Iraqi school children at 90 schools in Ninawa’ Governorate will
D
now have clean drinking water and functioning toilets when they return to school in
E
September 04.
P
– In cooperation with the Ninawa’ Directorate of Education, the project supplied
A
water tanks, installed water coolers, repainted bathrooms and toilets, installed
R
new sanitary fittings and wash basins, replaced damaged and broken doors,
T
M fixed broken windows and tiled floors.
E
• Over 32,000 secondary school teachers and 3,000 supervisors have been trained
N
as part of effort to upgrade the quality of education.
T
• Nearly 2,500 schools have been rehabilitated to date and an additional 1,200 are
expected to be complete by the end of the year.
O
F – In Basrah governorate, USAID is working with the MOE to inventory the
number of schools and assess immediate rehabilitation needs.
S
T
A
T
E
N/P UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Project and Contracting Office (PCO) Developments
D
• To date, the PCO has issued 201 task orders, out of a total of 250 (83%)
E
P – These task orders cover 2,083 projects nationwide, out of a total 2,300
A (90%)
R
– Nearly 37% of the $18.4 billion supplemental is contractually obligated
T
M – Over 61% of apportioned funds is contractually obligated
E
• The AIRP is meeting urgent local needs across Iraq:
N
T
– Projects cover: water and sanitation, health, education, building, roads,
power, telecommunications, and various other
O
F – 196 projects are underway out of 369
– Over 16,300 Iraqis have been directly employed on AIRP projects
S
T – Sadr City projects continue to employ over 3,000 Iraqi workers
A
T
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 11

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Project and Contracting Office (PCO)
Obligate
Apportioned Committed Expenditure
2207 d
Report $M $M $M
$M
Sector
D
3,235 2,976 2,636 1,701 272
Security and Law Enforcement
E
5,465 2,538 2,446 1,896 184
Electricity Sector
P
1,701 1,701 1,598 975 25
Oil Infrastructure
A
Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society (less
R
1,033 825 714 386 23
Democracy)
T
451 451 420 309 13
Democracy
M
259 259 238 118 14
Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance
E
368 270 255 124 1
Roads, Bridges, and Construction
N
786 577 560 376 0
Health Care
T
500 467 418 180 4
Transportation and Telecommunications
O 4,247 892 842 632 5
Water Resources and Sanitation
F 183 135 100 47 16
Private Sector Development
213 29 63* 60* 39*
Admin Expense (USAID, CPA Successor)
S 18,439 11,120 10,290 6,804 596
TOTAL
T 12,406 5,815 5,815 4,334
CONSTRUCTION
A 5,582 4,854 4,055 2,161
NON-CONSTRUCTION
T
451 451 420 309
DEMOCRACY
E
18,439 11,120 10,290 6,804 596
Total
N/P 12
Data as of 27 Jul UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Economy
D
• On 21 Jul, estimated crude oil export revenue was approximately $9.2 billion for
E
2004.
P
A
• At the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) auction on July 29, the settlement price was 1,460
R
dinars per dollar, the same as the previous day and unchanged since June 16.
T
• The Ministry of Finance offered ID 50 billion (about USD 34 million) in government
M
securities in their second bond auction on Sunday, August 1.
E
N • The ISX retreated during the past two sessions by roughly 16%, however, the
T overall market’s value has increased by 51% since trading commenced a month
ago.
O
• Nearly 3,000 micro-credit loans totaling over $6 million have been made to Iraqi
F
businesses.
– Provides credit to financially viable micro and small businesses.
S
T
A
T
E
N/P UNCLASSIFIED
13

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Economy (Cont)
D
• Since the Iraq Stock Exchange opened on 24 Jun, trading volume has grown
E
significantly.
P
A
– The exchange is open two days a week for two hours per day.
R
– There are now 27 listed companies traded and officials are hoping this
T
number will grow to 120 in the next 45 days.
M
E • USAID is assisting the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MOLSA) to
N develop a vocational training program that will help the Iraqi government address
T Iraq’s high unemployment rate.
• USAID is currently supporting the development of business skills among Iraq’s
O
small and medium sized businesses.
F
– By Fall 04, USAID will expand outreach and the number of existing Iraqi
Business Centers, which provide training, consulting, and business
S
entrepreneurship services.
T
A
T
E
N/P UNCLASSIFIED
14

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Electricity Overview
Mega Watt Hour Production
140000
D
E 120000
P 100000
A 80000
R
60000 June Goal MWH
T
MW Hrs Actual
40000
M
MW Hrs 7 Day Av.
20000
E
N 0
T
ul
29 n
ul
un
un
30 y
20 y
ay
11 r
31 r
21 r
10 r
20 r
10 r
pr
a
a
a
a
u
a
a
p
p
-J
-J
-M
-M
-M
-M
-J
-M
-J
-M
-M
-J
-A
-A
-A
19
09
19
09
01
30
O
F
• Summer maintenance program continues resulting in about 465 MW of
generation capacity currently offline for scheduled and 603 MW for unscheduled
S
maintenance
T
A
T
E
N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04 UNCLASSIFIED
15

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Power Production
Generation By Region
North South Central Off Grid Gen Syria Turkey
D
E 6000
P 5000
A 4000
R
MW Peak
3000
T
M 2000
E 1000
N
0
T
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
01
01
02
02
03
03
03
04
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
/01
/29
/12
/10
/04
/17
/14
/12
/09
/07
/07
/03
/31
/15
/26
/24
/21
/18
/28
/26
/23
/21
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
03
03
03
03
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
03
03
03
04
04
04
04
04
04
O
F
• Record Production: 13 Jul reached Peak Generation of 5,063 MW or 109,177
MWH
S
T
A
T
E
N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04 UNCLASSIFIED
16

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Hours of Power
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04 UNCLASSIFIED
17

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Crude Oil Production
3.00
MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
D 2.50
E
P
2.00
A
Millions of Barrels Per Day
R
T 1.50
M
E
N 1.00
T
0.50
O
F
0.00
4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24 June 25 June - 1 July 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July
S
Production Target
T
• Weekly Average of 2.303 MBPD Is Below Target of 2.5 MBPD
A
• Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 - 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity)
T
• Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
E
• Post-War Peak: 2.595 MBPD on 16 Apr 04
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 18

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue
Revenue ($B) Iraqi Export (MBPD)
D
E
P 2.000 $2.00
1.825 1.804
A 1.800 $1.80
R 1.541 1.537
1.524
1.600 $1.60
T 1.403
1.380
M 1.400 $1.40
Millions of Barrels Per Day
1.382
Revenue ($Billions)
E 1.149
1.200 $1.20
N 0.983 1.148
1.000 $1.00
T
0.800 $0.80
$1.61
$1.50
0.646
$1.36
O $1.28
$1.26 $1.26
0.600 $0.60
$1.21
$1.13
$1.10
F $0.89
0.322
0.400 $0.40
$0.73
0.200
$0.44
0.200 $0.20
S $0.36
$0.20
T 0.000 $0.00
Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04
A
• Current Monthly Average: 1.403 MBPD
T
E • Current Monthly Revenue: $1.13B
N/P UNCLASSIFIED
19

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Diesel Production & Imports
Production Import Target Stocks
25.0 20
D
18
E
P 20.0 16
A 14
Days of Stocks (National)
Millions of Liters Per Day
R
15.0
T 12
Ministry of Oil (MOO)
M Goal: 18.0 M Liters 10
E
10.0 8
N
T 6
5.0 4
O
2
F
0.0 0
S 4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24 June 25 June - 1 July 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July
T
• This week’s average production and imports are 110% of goal
A
T • National diesel stock is 18 days
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 20

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Kerosene Production & Imports
Production Import Target Stocks
9.0 40
D
E 8.0 35
P
7.0
A 30
R 6.0
Millions of Liters Per Day
Days of Stock (National)
25
T
5.0
M
20
E 4.0
N 15
3.0
T
Ministry of Oil (MOO) 10
2.0 Goal: 5.0 M Liters
O
5
F 1.0
0.0 0
S 4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24 June 25 June - 1 July 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July
T
A • This week’s average production and imports are 168% of goal
T
• National kerosene stock is 33 days
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 21

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Gasoline / Benzene Production & Imports
Production Import Target Stocks
30.0 25
D
E Ministry of Oil (MOO) Goal:
P 25.0 22.0 M Liters 20
A
R
Millions of Liters Per Day
20.0
Days of Stock (National)
T 15
M
15.0
E
N 10
T 10.0
O 5
5.0
F
S 0.0 0
4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24 June 25 June - 1 July 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July
T
A • This week’s average production and imports are 111% of goal
T
• National benzene stock is 15 days
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 22

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production & Imports
Production Import Target Stocks
5000 50
D Ministry of Oil (MOO)
E 4500 45
Goal: 4,000 Tons
P 4000 40
A
3500 35
R
Days of Stock (National)
T 3000 30
Tons Per Day
M
2500 25
E
N 2000 20
T
1500 15
O 1000 10
F
500 5
S 0 0
4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24 June 25 June - 1 July 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July
T
A • This week’s average production and imports are 117% of goal
T
• National LPG stock is 35 days
E
N/P UNCLASSIFIED
23

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Security - Developments
• The Iraqi National Guard (ING) and Iraqi Police Service conducted a number of
successful operations last week including the discovery of large insurgent
D weapons caches and a sophisticated terrorist safe house.
E
– One haul included MIG-21 engines, 120mm BM-21 rockets, 60mm mortar
P
rounds, land mines, 120mm artillery shells, mortar charges, a truck and
A
5,000 boxes of 14.55mm rounds.
R
T
– Another other haul yielded 10 type-63 107mm rockets, two 120mm mortar
M
rounds, a rocket propelled grenade launcher, two rocket propelled grenades,
E
various fuses and 26 improvised explosive devise switches.
N
• The Iraqi Intervention Forces’ 4th Battalion deployed to a southern Baghdad
T
base this week for stability and support operations as part of the Iraqi
government’s continued effort to provide security to the nation.
O
F
– This is one of three Iraqi battalions being employed in the Baghdad area of
operations.
S
• Lead elements of the Iraqi army’s 5th Battalion deployed to a base in Western
T
Baghdad this week for force protection operations at the base as part of the
A
Iraqi government’s continued effort to provide security to the nation.
T
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 24

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Security - Developments (Cont.)
• Chart below shows significant insurgent activities in Iraq to 24 July 2004.
D
• Includes attacks using improvised explosive devices (IED), vehicle-borne IED,
E
mortars, rocket propelled grenades (RPG), and improvised rockets.
P
A
R
Significant Acts
T 70
M Fallujah
60 Operation Iron Transition to
and al-Sadr
E Hammer Interim
Sedition
Announced Government
N 50
Total SIGACTS
T 40
Anniversary
of Invasion
30
O
F 20
Interim
Government
10 Announced
S
T 0
A
04
04
04
2/2 04
03
1/2 4
4
4
4
5/2 4
6/1 4
6/2 4
7/1 4
7/2 4
4
03
03
03
1/1 3
4
11 3
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
00
0
20
20
20
/20
20
/20
/20
/20
/20
/20
T
0/2
4/2
0/2
7/2
5/2
9/2
2/2
6/2
0/2
4/2
1/2
6/
3/
1/
/1/
2/7
/15
/29
/13
/27
/18
3/
4/
5/
3/2
4/1
5/1
11
11
12
12
10
Date
E
UNCLASSIFIED
N/P 25

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Stability Contributors - OIF
Countries with forces in Iraq Countries committed to
provide forces for Iraq
D
TOTAL ~23K
30
E
P 1
Lithuania
Albania
A Macedonia
Australia
R
Mongolia
Azerbaijan
T
Netherlands
Bulgaria
M
New Zealand
Czech Rep
E
Norway
Denmark
31 Countries
N
Poland
El Salvador
T
Potentially Supporting
Portugal
Estonia
Iraqi Stability and
Romania
Georgia
O Humanitarian Relief
Singapore
Hungary
F
Slovakia
Italy
S Thailand
Japan
T Tonga
Kazakhstan
A Ukraine
Korea
T UK
Latvia
E
Data as of 30 Jul 04
P UNCLASSIFIED
26

UNCLASSIFIED 4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
• Development, coordination and distribution responsibilities for the Iraq Weekly
Status Report have been transferred from the Department of Defense to the
D
Department of State.
E
P • This brief draws from multiple sources. References are often cited in the
A “Notes Page” section (View  Notes Page) of this brief.
R
• Please forward all inquiries to NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
27