Whats On Your Horizon

Slide 1: What’s On Your Horizon? Alan Levine The New Media Consortium (NMC) http://flickr.com/photos/mybigtrip/74665861/ Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 2: The future is here… It’s just not evenly distributed yet. Gibson’s Observation Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 3: creative commons licensed flickr photo by kk+ Perils of Predicting the Future Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 4:  Predicting is about certainty, and forecasting is about appreciating uncertainty. Forecasting gives a context for decision-makers to act in the face of uncertainty. In the business world, uncertainty is our friend, because uncertainty is opportunity. -- Paul Saffo Forecasting vs Predicting Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 5: QuickTimeﾪ and a mpeg4 decompressor are needed to see this picture. 1989 Centel Phone Ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptbJZ9HBw2k 1989 Centel Phone Ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptbJZ9HBw2k Seeing the Future Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 6: MyPhone 2000 Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 7: creative commons licensed flickr photos http://flickr.com/photos/monkeyc/114475509/ http://flickr.com/photos/swisscan/539596753/ http://flickr.com/photos/swisscan/1044416818 http://flickr.com/photos/dpwolf/263872077/ The Answer is Yes Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 8: creative commons licensed flickr photo by cogdogblog Visionary Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 9: Explained by Bryan Alexander A Strategy for Organizational Fitness 1991 Toward High-Performance Organizations, 1992 Engelbart’s Organizational Layers Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 10: What is in Common? Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 11: creative commons licensed flickr photo by inocuo R&D in Educational Technology? Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 12: \"Giving people room\" to innovate is a 3M tradition, exemplified by the \"15% rule\" which encourages people to spend 15 percent of their time on projects of their own choosing and initiative. 3M policy We offer our engineers \"20-percent time\" so that they're free to work on what they're really passionate about. Google News, Google Suggest, AdSense for Content and Orkut are among the many products of this perk. Google policy Time for R&D Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 13: Innovation in .edu Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 14: Not Just High Powered Research Institutions Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 15: 1993 @ Maricopa Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 16: UMW Bluehost Experiment Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 17: Small Experiments Can Go Far Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 18: 100,000 is not trivial Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 19: Now for something not so fun… …only my opinions from observations Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 20: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Igycorner.JPG http://flickr.com/photos/jcarter/406945744/ http://flickr.com/photos/cactusbones/63293685/ http://flickr.com/photos/ants_in_my_pants/146285632/ http://flickr.com/photos/gertrudk/93006250/ http://flickr.com/photos/xiangdian/795349151/ A Brief History of Walls Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 21: Technology “Walls” Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 22: Blocking Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 23: http://flickr.com/photos/shearwater/458607516/ Wall Strategies or Wall Repair Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 24: http://flickr.com/photos/modern_nomad/373225207/ lose track of what is behind the walls Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 25: Our most valuable resource is our people: energetic, innovative thinkers who care equally about doing great work and developing a culture that's great for all our employees. http://flickr.com/photos/gregpc/420039782/ Organizational Assets Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 26: “Open-ness” as Engelbart’s http://flickr.com/photos/qxz/941453813/ Doorway? Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 27: Scott Leslie on “permeable” organizations Permeable? http://flickr.com/photos/libraryman/28331173/ Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 28: http://flickr.com/photos/benmcleod/523653908/ Looking at Horizons Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 29: creative commons licensed flickr photo by wondrous22 The Horizon Project Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 30: creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy Not About Being “Right” Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 31: creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy Time to Adoption != Time To Viable Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 32: Advisory Board Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 33: the process research dialog Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 34: hz08 tag Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 35: What would you list among the established technologies that learning-focused institutions should all be using broadly today to support or enhance teaching, learning, or creative expression? http://flickr.com/photos/ozyman/173241297/ Horizon 1 Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 36: What technologies that have a solid user base in consumer, entertainment, or other industries should learning- focused institutions be actively looking for ways to apply? http://flickr.com/photos/burnblue/146598505 Horizon 2 Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 37: What are the key emerging technologies you see developing to the point that learning-focused institutions should begin to take notice during the next 3 to 5 years? http://flickr.com/photos/alikaragoz/141286189/ Horizon 3 Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 38:  What would you list among the established technologies that learning-focused Australian institutions should all be using broadly today to support or enhance teaching, learning, or creative expression?  What technologies that have a solid user base in Australian consumer, entertainment, or other industries should learning-focused institutions be actively looking for ways to apply?  What are the key emerging technologies you see developing to the point that Australian learning-focused institutions should begin to take notice during the next 3 to 5 years? Play The Horizon Game Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 39: Horizon Reports 2004-2007 Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 40: Horizon Trends Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 41: Gaming / Social Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 42: Sandbox: Less Than One Year Horizon Web 2.0 & Social Software Audience response Portable Apps Lecture capture Flash Video Format Wikis CollaborationProject Management Tools Online Tools Online CommunicationDIGITAL \"AIR\" Tools Shibboleth Multimedia Production Tools Classroom communication systems Presentation technology Content Mapping Tools PODCASTING HTML Templates & Portfolios Learning Management Systems Social Networking Tools Automated Lecture Capture Data Visualization Tools Image-rich communications Show Me the Content Comparative Image Easily Accessible Projection Systems displays Mechanical Turk Moore's Law of Mobile Computers Grid Computing Geographic Games Mobile/ Education Relationship Visualization Targeted Marketing RSS and Syndication Tools Universal Design for Learning Audio Capture/Distribution Tools Group Collaboration Software Portal Technologies creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Pervasive Campus Wireless Personal Authoring Systems Mashups 2007 Funnel Process E-Portfolios More Training & Release Time Textbooks 2.0 Digital Space Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 43: Sandbox: Two to Three Year Horizon Gaming Teleconferencing, video conferencing, video chat Video via broadband Tablet PCs Social networking Audio Books Miniaturization Mainstream gaming platforms Use of public datasets Personal broadcasting Academic Publishing 2.0 Better interface design Going to the Source Personalized computing Portable Devices Cognitive tools Trusted Reference Sources Peer-to-peer filesharing Video & audio sharing IPTV Gaming to learn High Definition Video Google AdWords Personal Broadcasting Social bookmarking Specialized media tools multiplayer environments Video Blogs Audience Created Content Skype, IM, synchronized communication tools Non-Linear Narrative Recommendation Systems Specialized Media Tools YouTube for College Web-based Productivity Apps creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Digital Asset Management Social Network Service Video Precise Physical Tracking / Remote instrumentation 2007 Funnel Process Message Boards Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 44: Sandbox: Four to Five Year Horizon eBooks Mobile devices on steroids Ubiquitous computing and telephony Information searching technologiesimmersion experiences 3d shared VR simulations Personal Learning Environments Remote Labs Social Community sites User preference engines Synthetic/Virtual Worlds Ubiquitous broadband Semantic Web Tagging/folksonomy Bio security systems Geo-aware computing Google Books Text comprehension and abstracting system Geo-aware social Media Rich Social Network Tools Wi-Max for cell phones Social Bookmarking Digital Notetaking applications Wearable computing Virtual Meeting Software Narrative Presentation Technologies Collaborative Next generation search tools Nokia Lifeblog Writing / Editing Ad Hoc Networks Browser-based applications Context and location aware technologies Smartboard technologies Web 2.0 technologies 3G (and beyond) Mobile phones 2-D and Person-Computer Interfacing Video & audio sharing 3-D Videogames as learning platforms visualization tools Pervasive Broadband and Wireless creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Internet-wide User- Implanted technologies centric Identity Systems Real-Time Language 2007 Funnel Process Robust Transcribing and Captioning tools Translation Intelligent Tutoring Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 45:  Less Than One Year  Online Collaboration: Easy, Accessible, and Virtually Free  User Content: It’s All about the Audience  The Reason They Log On  Can You Hear Me Now? The Resurgence of Audio  Two to Three Years  Your Phone: The Gateway to Your Digital Life  The New Video is Smaller than You Think  Virtual Worlds, Real Opportunity  Mapping Goes Mainstream: It’s Not What You Know, It’s Where You Know  Four to Five Years  The New Scholarship and Emerging Forms of Publication  Massively Multiplayer Educational Gaming  Personal Learning Environments  Internet-Wide User-Centric Identity Systems 2007 Short List Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 46:  Less Than One Year  User Created Content  Social Networking  Two to Three Years  Mobile Phones  Virtual Worlds  Four to Five Years  New Scholarship and Emerging Forms of P  Massively Multiplayer Educational Gaming How do these “fit” in Australia? 2007 Horizons Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 47: Creative commons licensed flickr photo by Gavin Mackintosh Differing Horizons- Edgy Enough? Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 48: I was a bit nonplussed by its choice of technologies… that the technologies and modes identified in this years’ list have already achieved significant impact. There is one self-evident conclusion to draw from this. This year’s Horizon Report is not futurology: it is history.  The Perils of Stargazing (Catherine Howell)  Technorati links Heard Around the Blogs Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 49: What was fascinating (and maybe a bit frustrating, but in a good way) about the process was how we went from these sprawling lists down to a list of 6 that actually seem to bear some resemblance to conceivable futures, not ‘wished for’ futures, not ‘if only everyone would listen to me’ futures, but ones that bear some resemblance to where these slow moving beasts called post-secondary institutions will get to.  On the Perils of Stargazing (Scott Leslie) • Technorati links Heard Around the Blogs Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 50: horizonproject.wikispaces.com K-12 Horizon Project Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 51: horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Agenda Research Agenda Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 52: Call to Scholarship Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 53: This Year… http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Question_One Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 54: Interesting Signposts… Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 59: George Siemens on benefit of local social networking Interesting Signposts… Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 60: A Proposition Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 61: Discussion Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

Slide 62: What’s On Your Horizon? http://flickr.com/photos/clickykbd/297924492/ www.nmc.org/horizon Australian Flexible Learning Framework Tour October 2007

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