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Henrik Lund a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (25.11.2013)

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Denmark, 100% renewable Energy …

Denmark, 100% renewable Energy
Dinamarca, 100% energia renovable
Coenercat, Congrés d'Energia de Catalunya

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  • 1. CoEnerCat Congrés d‘Energia de Catalunya Barcelona 25 November 2013 Denmark 100% renewable Energy Henrik Lund Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University, Denmark
  • 2. Aalborg University, Denmark Jutland/Denmark: • • • • 25% wind power (120,000 owners) High share of the world’s offshore power 30% Distributed Generation 50% of electricity supplied by CHP
  • 3. 100% renewable energy solutions ! • What we already have done in Denmark • What we aim to do in the future… (100% Renewable Energy) • How this can be done (…illustrated by the IDA Energy Plan 2030) • Recent developments in smart energy systems marked based integration of wind power
  • 4. The first oil crisis in 1973 The Danish energy consumption in 1972 Primary Energy Supply 1972 Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy
  • 5. 30 Years of active Energy Planning 30 years of active Government and Parliament Energy Policies. Including NGO alternative strategies and public debate
  • 6. Difficult Economical situation In Denmark in the early 80ies Net Foreign Depth in Denmark Unemployment in Denmark 10.0 8 7 Percent of population Percent of GDP 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 1945 6 5 4 3 2 1 1950 1955 1960 1965 Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 Year 1970 1975 1980
  • 7. Energy Policies: The 80ies Objective in focus: Socio Economy (Jobs and balance of payment)
  • 8. Feasibility Studies methodologies Mid 80´ies: • Heat planning procedure in all municipalities • feasibility studies including jobs and balance of payment issues in the priority • made possible for authorities to run job creation and innovative energy policies and planning
  • 9. Foreign Depth Net Foreign Depth in Denmark 10.0 Percent of GDP 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 1945 1955 1965 1975 Year 1985 1995 2005
  • 10. Job creation Unemployment in Denmark 8 Percent of population 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1945 1955 1965 1975 Year 1985 1995 2005
  • 11. 40 years with a stable energy consumption World Primary Energy Consumption 400 RES 1000 PJ 300 Nuclear 200 Ngas Oil 100 0 1900 Coal 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
  • 12. Heated Space and Heat Demand 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Index 1972=100 Domestic heating Fuel for House Heating PJ 1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 300 Space Heat demand 250 RES 200 District Coal PJ Heating 150 Ngas 140 100 Oil 120 Distributed CHP 100 50 80 60 0 1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 Large CHP Boilers 40 2009 20 0 1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 2009
  • 13. Danish electricity production Big power stations Small CHP plants Wind turbines
  • 14. At present Denmark is still self-sufficient Danish Primary Energy Supply PJ Danish Energy Production PJ 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1972 Oil 1980 Coal 1988 1996 Natural Gas 2004 2012 Renewable Energy 1972 1980 Oil 1988 Natural gas 1996 2004 Renewable Energy 2012
  • 15. Danish oil production and prognosis The Danish Energy Authority, 2002
  • 16. Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts 40 30 Total 20 1.000 MDK K Export of energy technology and fuels O il 10 Natural G as C oal 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 E lec tric ity 2005 -10 -20 -30 Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y 60 50 45 1.000 MDK K 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 The Danish Energy Authority, 2006 1.000 MDK K C rude oil 30 14% 30 12% 25 10% 20 8% 6% 10 40 16% 35 Natural gas 18% 40 15 50 20% 4% 5 2% 2005 0 0% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 E x port S hare of Total E x ports
  • 17. Export of Danish Energy Technology
  • 18. 3 Challenges Danish CO2 emissons 70 65 Mio.ton • Climate Change 60 Actual 55 Corrected 50 45 World Primary Energy Consumption 40 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 400 Year RES 1000 PJ 300 • Security of supply (Fossil fuels) Ngas Oil 100 Coal 0 1900 Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y 50 20% 45 18% 40 16% 35 1.000 MDK K • Industry, economy and jobs Nuclear 200 14% 30 12% 25 10% 20 8% 15 6% 10 4% 5 2% 0 0% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 E xport S hare of Total E xports 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
  • 19. The long-term Objective of Danish Energy Policy Expressed by former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen in his opening speech to the Parliament in 2006 and in several political agreements since then: Prime minister 16 November 2008: ”We will free Denmark totally from fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas” To convert to 100% Renewable Energy Prime minister 16 November 2008: ”… position Denmark in the heart of green growth”
  • 20. New Government September 2011 • 100% RES by 2050 • 100% RES for electricity and heating by 2035 • No coal on power plants and no oil for heating households by 2030 • 50% wind in electricity supply by 2020 • 40% CO2 reduction by 2020 compared to 1990
  • 21. Plans how to make the transformation to 100% Renewable Energy Systems
  • 22. Energi System Analyse Model www.EnergyPLAN.eu
  • 23. Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW) 500 Wind energy MWh/h 400 300 200 100 0 0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784 7686 8784 7686 8784 Hours Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW) 2000 MWh/h 1500 1000 500 0 0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 Hours Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW) 2000 1500 MWh/h Input: • Data from total productions of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark). 1000 500 0 0 1098 2196 3294 4392 Hours 5490 6588
  • 24. At present 99% of Danish Wind Power is used in Denmark to meet Domestic demands By Henrik Lund, Frede Hvelplund, Poul A. Østergaard, Bernd Möller, Brian Vad Mathiesen Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Aalborg Anders N. Andersen EMD International, NOVI Research Park, Aalborg, Denmark Poul Erik Morthorst, Kenneth Karlsson, Peter Meibom and Marie Münster Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde, Denmark Jesper Munksgaard Pöyry, Copenhagen, Denmark Peter Karnøe Department of Organization, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen,Denmark Henrik Wenzel, Institute of Chemical Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark Hans Henrik Lindboe Ea Energy Analyses, Copenhagen, Denmark
  • 25. A palette of solutions • • • • • • • • • • • Flexible consumption Electricity storage CAES systems Regulation of CHP plants Electric heating Heat pumps Electric cars Stopping of wind turbines Production of hydrogen Transmission abroad V2G
  • 26. Conclusions: • Regulation of CHP and heat storage (implemented in DK in 2004): Makes possible to integrate 20% Wind Power (and 50% CHP) • Adding large heat pumps and heat storage capacity to existing CHP plants: Makes possible to integrate 40% Wind Power (and 50% CHP) • Electricity for transportation (integrate approx. 60% wind power) • Important to involve the new flexible technologies in the grid stabilisation task
  • 27. Three targets in the IDA Energy Year 2006 • To maintain security of energy supply • To cut CO2 emissions by 50 % by year 2030 compared to the 1990 level • To create employment and to quadruple the export in the energy industry
  • 28. During the IDA Energy Year 2006 • 40 meetings and seminars by the IDA groups and societies • More than 1600 participants • Coordination by the IDA Committee for the environment • Overall energy system analysis at Alborg University
  • 29. Energi System Analyse Model www.EnergyPLAN.eu
  • 30. IDA Energiplan 2030
  • 31. 100% Renewable Energy in 2050 Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ 1,000 900 800 Eksport 700 VE-el 600 Solvarme 500 Biomasse Naturgas 400 Olie 300 Kul 200 100 0 Ref 2030 IDA 2030 IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind IDA 2050 Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ 400 Waste 350 300 Energy crops Slurry fibre fraction 250 200 Slurry biogas Wood Straw 150 100 50 0 DEA potential IDA 2030 Max potential
  • 32. Conclusions • 100 Percent Renewable is physically possible and the first toward 2030 is feasible to the Danish Society. • The methodology of design is a very complex process. The combination of a creative phase involving many single experts and detailed system analyses seems efficient and can be recommended.
  • 33. CEESA Project 2011/2012 Transport: Electric vehicles is best from an energy efficient point of view. But gas and/or liquid fuels is needed to transform to 100%. Biomass: .. is a limited resource and can not satisfy all the transportation needs. Consequence … Electricity from Wind (and similar resources) needs to be converted to gas and liquied fuels in the long-term perspective…
  • 34. Case: Skagen CHP plant
  • 35. Skagen CHP plant • CHP capacity: 13 MWe and 16 MWth (Three 4.3 MWe Wärtsilä Natural Gas engines • 250 MWh heat storage • 37 MW peak load boilers • 10 MW electric boiler • Heat Pumps Investment under consideration Operated together with a Waste Incineration plant (heat only).
  • 36. The main electricity markets Primary reserves (frequency controlled production) Secondary reserves (controlled by status of primary reserves) Manuel regulating power (Tertiary reserves) Intra day market Day ahead spot market 15 min 1 hour 30 sec The M.Sc. Programmes in Environm. Managem. & Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 8. Semester, http://people.plan.aau.dk/~ana > 12 hours
  • 37. Skagen • Day ahead spot market in Jan. 2005 • Regulating power market in approx. 2006 • Automatic primary reserve market in Nov. 2009
  • 38. Cost of entering primary automatic reserves market • Cost of making +- 1.4 MW available on the engines: Only approx. 27.000 EUR. • Investing in 10 MW electric boiler: Approx 0.7 MEUR.
  • 39. Conclusions • Denmark can operate a system with 20% Wind and 50% CHP • By adding heat pumps to the CHP units the integration of wind power can be raised to approx. 40% with-out loosing efficiency (nor wind power) • Including the CHP plants in the various electricity markets is essential. • Once the markets are open for CHP plants the cost of entering them seams small.
  • 40. More information http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php www.energyplanning.aau.dk www.EnergyPLAN.eu • http://www.emd.dk/desire/skagen • http://www.emd.dk/el