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Harry Lehmann a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (25.11.2013)

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La innovación energética en Alemania …

La innovación energética en Alemania
Coenercat, Congrés d'Energia de Catalunya

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  • 1. エ E N E R G Y ナ R I C H チ ジ ー ・リ ッ ・ジ ャ Dr. Harry Lehmann パ J A P A N ン
  • 2. „Great Transformation“
  • 3. Elements of a sustainable Development “New Green Deal” Nachhaltige Landwirtschaft Stabiles Finanzsystem Ressourcenproduktivität Faktor 10 - X Neues Wohlstandsmodell Erneuerbare Energien Aus- / Fortbildung Energieeffizienz Technologie Transfer Globale freie Kommunikation (Internet) “Grüne” Chemie Mobilität Wasser Management Equity Infrastruktur Source: Harry Lehmann, 2004
  • 4. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Goals of energy and climate policy Timeline 2050; All relevant sectors; Specific Goals, over 100 specific Measures, Funding 4
  • 5. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Goals of energy and climate policy Timeline 2050; All relevant sectors; Specific Goals, over 100 specific Measures, Funding 100% 5
  • 6. Phase out of the individual nuclear power plants 2011 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 total Power in net output cut-off in MW 8.422* 1.275 *2,1 GW nuclear power 1.284 1.329 out of service since 2008 4.018 4.039 20.367
  • 7. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Amendment to the Atomic Energy Act Gradual phasing out of nuclear power 7 oldest plants + Krümmel: Immediate decommissioning Gradual phasing out of nuclear power by 2022 Shutdown years: 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency Source: UBA 7
  • 8. Energiewende historical.... Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994
  • 9. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Energiewende 1973 Oilcrisis Club of Rome „Die Grenzen des Wachstums“ 1979 Harrisbourgh Energiewende Wachstum und Wohlstand ohne Erdöl und Uran Öko-Institut 1979 1985 Die Energiewende ist möglich Für eine neue Energiepolitik der Kommunen Öko-Institut 1985 1986 1989 Tschernobyl EUROSOLAR Unification Institutions „3S Pfad“ Anti-AKW-Bewegung; Gründung der GRÜNEN 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 9 9
  • 10. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Energiewende Energiewende 1990 • • • • • • 1992 1995 1997 2000 2010 2010 2011 ENERGIEWENDE AUF DEM WEG 1990 Stromeinspeisegesetz 1990 ff Local and regional Energykonzepts 1992 Rio-Conference UNFCCC - Goal 1997 Kyoto-Protokoll 2000 EEG – first Phase Out „Treaty“ – ETS EU 2006 40% Goal for Germany 2010: Integriertes Klima- und Energieprogramm (IKEP) 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 10
  • 11. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Energiewende Energiewende BERICHTERSTATTUNG: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Erneuerbare und Energieeffizienz für ALLE Anwendungen (Strom, Wärme, Kraftstoffe)! ENK Langfristziel bis 2050 Maßnahmen bis 2022: Atomausstieg Novell des EEG EE Ausbau der Energieeffizienz Netz Novelle EEG Bundesnetzpanung 2011: Gesetzespaket zur Energiewende 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 11
  • 12. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Measures to accelerate the transformation of our energy system Atomic Energy Act (AtG) Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG) Energy Industry Act (EnWG) Ordinance on the Award of Public Contracts (VgV) Energy and Climate Fund Building Code on "Climate-friendly development" Key points on energy efficiency Combined Heat and Power Act 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 12
  • 13. dir. 2009/28/EC for renewable energy promotion - main features o European and national targets for renewable energy deployment o National action plan for renewable deployment Main policy instruments Yearly targets till 2020 All relevant technologies o Biennial monitoring report to Commission Detailed documentation of RES sources and development Action taken to comply with Nation Action Plan o Common measures between member states Common power plant construction Exchange of electricity production Common use of instruments o Reduction of obstructions Access to power supply system Registration of power plant Information und training Administrative o Sustainability criteria for bio fuels o Guaranties of origin 13
  • 14. Renewable Energy Sources Act – EEG - basic and necessary features o priority connection of installations o priority purchase and distribution of electricity o guaranteed feed-in tariffs o independence of public budgets low transfer costs o low transfer costs o “Exclusive-use” principle o Experience and Impact Report to German Parliament 14
  • 15. Renewable Energy Sources Act - § 1 Goals General purpose facilitate a sustainable energy system, for climate and environmental protection, reduce (also external) cost of energy supply, conserve fossil fuels and promote development of REN technology share of RES-E on electricity use EEG 2000 substantial increase of RES-E foster Germany’s RES deployment goals EEG 2004 until 2010/20: increase to at least 12.5/20% of electricity consumption EEG 2009 until 2020 increase to at least 30% and continuous further increase EEG 2012 no later than at least 2020 35% 2030 50% 2040 65% 2050 80% 15
  • 16. RES-share of total final energy consumption Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013
  • 17. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 17
  • 18. Ic.) Aktuelle EE-Statistik: Zubau installierter Leistung Onshore-Wind 18
  • 19. Ic.) Aktuelle EE-Statistik: Zubau installierter Leistung Photovoltaik 19
  • 20. Share of RES of German energy consumption Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013
  • 21. GHG Reduction using Renewable Energies Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013
  • 22. Investment in RES-installations Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013
  • 23. Revenues from operation of RES-installations Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013
  • 24. Employment in Germany’s renewable energy sector 2004 – 2012 Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013
  • 25. Ownership of RES-installations in Germany Project Managers Private Citizen The four largest Electricity Suppliers other Electricity Suppliers Funds, Banks Trade Farmers other
  • 26. Accumulated public funding of energy sources (billion Euro) Hard coal Lignite Nuclear Natural Gas Renewables 26
  • 27. Effectiveness versus expected profit wind energy - 2004 20% Effectiveness indicator ESFixed Price ESMarket Option 15% DE 10% AT IE 5% SE BEWallonia FR BEFlanders UK IT FI 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Annual expected profit [€ Cent/kWh] Source: Feed-in tariffs Quota/TGC Tender Tax incentives/rebates 27
  • 28. Policies for RES-E support – EU27 Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – July 2011 28
  • 29. Development electricity cost for households 29
  • 30. Development electricity cost for households 30
  • 31. Composition of electricity price for households 31
  • 32. Composition of “costs” of EEG 32
  • 33. Development electricity cost for industry Industriestrompreise in D (cent per kWh) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 33
  • 34. Renewable energies Cost shares for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity for household customers in Germany Additional costs for customers are only about 1 Eurocent per kWh or about 3 Euros per month per household. Source: BMU publication „Renewable energy sources in figures“
  • 35. Renewable energies External costs of electricity generation for various options in Germany
  • 36. PV plant: system price and EEG feed-in tariffs Source: BSW-Solar 36
  • 37. PV-electricity generation costs and market price €/kWh 1,0 900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh 0,8 1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh 0,6 0,4 Photovoltaics 0,2 Utility peak power Bulk power Source: RWE Energie AG, RSS GmbH 0,0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 37
  • 38. Development electricity production cost 38
  • 39. Development of differential costs of renewable electricity generation in Germany, 2010 to 2050 Water Photovoltaics Biomass/Renewable methane Total Wind Imports of energy Geothermal energy
  • 40. Source – H. Ossenbrink JRC 2013 Slide 3-cents / kwh
  • 41. Source – H. Ossenbrink JRC 2013 Slide 3-cents / kwh
  • 42. lead scenario - differential costs - electricity production Source: DLR et al: Lead study 2010 42
  • 43. lead scenario - differential costs - all sectors Source: DLR et al: Lead study 2010 43
  • 44. lead scenario - cumulated differential costs - electricity, heating and fuels Source: DLR et al: Lead study 2010 44
  • 45. „Energiewende“ TODAY A triple approach - 100 measures in the three areas 1. Renewable energy sources: • Rapid, continuous expansion • Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly 2. Future grids: 3. Efficiency: • Flexible and powerful • Reduce energy consumption • Integration of electricity • Ensure efficiency from renewable sources
  • 46. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Expanding the grids Grid development plan for a functioning single European electricity market Objective: □ An interlinked EU electricity grid □ Basis for an electricity supply almost entirely from renewables by 2050 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency Source: BMU 46
  • 47. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Amendment to the Energy Industry Act (EnWG) and Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG) Fundamental principles for smart meters and smart grids Coordinated grid planning for transmission grids Transparency and public participation Specialist planning at Federal Government level specifies route corridors for long-distance and crossborder electricity lines Use of underground cables in the 110 kV range Cluster connection of offshore wind farms Source: BMU 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 47
  • 48. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Necessary extensions of the extra high voltage transmission network required by further development of wind power (Source: dena Grid Study) Source: ISET, IWET, dena Grid Study 2005, own illustration = 1 GW offshore 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency (MW) 48
  • 49. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 49
  • 50. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy The Energy and Climate Fund (ECF) Growing to more than €3bn per annum by 2013 Funded from the auction proceeds for emissions trading certificates Allocation: □ Renewable energies □ Energy efficiency □ Building modernisation □ National and international climate protection □ Environmental projects and research □ Electro-mobility □ Compensation of electricity prices for energy-intensive companies 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency Source: BMU 50
  • 51. „Energiewende“ today Source: Agora
  • 52. „Energiewende“ today Source: Agora
  • 53. Scenarios with 100% REN Supply Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994
  • 54. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Goals of energy and climate policy Timeline 2050; All relevant sectors; Specific Goals, over 100 specific Measures, Funding 54
  • 55. energy system based on renewable sources eMethan Source: Harry Lehmann, 1996 Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 56. Energy System based on renewables Benefits of using renewable energies Climate protection Independence of fossil fuel imports Reduction of (international) conflicts Low risks for humans and environment Local economic and social development especially for poor countries Fostering industrial development and export opportunities RES promotion should harvest all benefits
  • 57. Archetypes of 100% REN Centralized / big Decentralized / small Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 58. Archetypes of 100% REN International / far away Centralized / big Decentralized / small National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 59. Archetypen einer EE Versorgung Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 60. Archetypes of 100% REN International / far away ? ? Centralized / big Decentralized / small ? ? ? ? ? ? National / Local / nearby ? Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 61. Three “archetypical” UBA scenarios • “Local Energy Autarky” (2013, now published): • Small-scale decentralized energy systems use locally available RE • No grid connection to outside • “Regions Network” (2010): • German Regions use their RE potentials extensively • Electricity exchange throughout Germany • Only small share of power imports from neighbouring countries • “International Large Scale” (2013, under progress): • Germany‘s and Europe‘s electricity supply is based on all RE potentials in Germany, Europe (large-scale technology projects) • High import share via a well-developed intercontinental transmission grid
  • 62. Archetypes of 100% REN Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away Local Autarky National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 63. Archetypes of 100% REN „Plusenergybuildings“ Rolf Disch
  • 64. IBA Hamburg – Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg Project area of the IBA Hamburg INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH
  • 65. IBA Hamburg – Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH
  • 66. IBA Hamburg – Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH
  • 67. IBA Hamburg – Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg 100% 85% INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH
  • 68. Archetypes of 100% REN Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away Local Autarky National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 69. Archetypes of 100% REN Intern. Coop Local Autarky National / Local / nearby Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 70. Trans Med Renewable Energy Collaboration - TREC ISuSI Solar Wind Hydro Geothermal Biomass EURO-MED possible further interconnections Gas pipelines used for Hydrogen Source: TREC Collaboration und Harry Lehmann, 2004
  • 71. Archetypes of 100% REN Intern. Coop Local Autarky National / Local / nearby Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 72. Archetypes of 100% REN Intern. Coop Local Autarky Regions Coop National / Local / nearby Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 73. Energy Demand in diff. sectors Germany 2008 and 2050 974 1000 900 1000 898 900 800 800 700 700 557 600 TWh TWh 600 667 500 500 400 400 300 427 300 200 135 200 100 100 35% 22% 38% 6% 5% 106 76 33% 0 0 2008 2050 52% 8%
  • 74. Quelle: Schulze-Darup
  • 75. Scenario „Regionen Verbund D – 2050“ Installed Capacity GW 23,3 6,4 5,2 Photovoltaic Wind energy onshore 45 120 Wind energy offshore Hydropower Geothermal energy Waste biomass (biogas) 60
  • 76. Feed-in of the renewable energies (2006-2009) Mittlere, monatliche EE-Einspeisung im Vergleich (2006-2009) 90 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Aug Okt 80 70 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Leistung (GW) 60 Jan Feb März April Mai Juni Juli Sept Nov Monat Average, monthly feed-in of renewable electricity from generation capacities in 2050 based on the meteorological years 2006-2009 Dez © FhG IWES
  • 77. Feed-in of renewable energy and load – per month (winter) EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, Januar) 160 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement 140 Leistung (GW) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Tag © FhG IWES Feed-in [GW] of all RE and the load curve Example „Winter month“ (December) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007
  • 78. Feed-in of renewable energies and load – per month (summer) EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, August) 160 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement 140 Leistung (GW) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Tag © FhG IWES Feed-in [GW] of all RE and load Example „Summer month“ (August) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007
  • 79. Storage needed Gravitational Storage Chemical Storage H2 or eMethan (SolarMethan) Electric Storage
  • 80. Speicher im Größenvergleich Residual load (GW) Total residual load (with load management and pump storage) in the year 2050, based on data from the meteorological year 2007 pumped Storage (today) 42 Mio. electric vehicles (theory) pumped Storage Norway (theory) Capacity gas grid (today) 82
  • 81. Security of Supply 83
  • 82. energy storage by linking the power grid with natural gas grid 4 H2 + CO2 ↔ CH4 + H2O [Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009]
  • 83. Role in a Future Energy System Liquid
  • 84. Der erste Schritt im Rahmen von Audi balanced mobility ist das e-gas Projekt Entscheidung zum Kauf von vier OffshoreWindkrafträdern Heutige Technologie Vorstandsfreigabe im Dezember 2010 Vier 3,6 MW OWKA mit 53 GWh Strom Gesamtleistung p.a. Entscheidung des e-gas-Projekts Bau einer 6,3 MW e-gas Anlage mit Als geeigneter Standort für unser e-gas Projekt haben wir den Nordwesten e-gas p.a. 1.000t Deutschlands ausgewählt Layout Anlage Werlte Kooperationspartner: Windpark 6 Entscheidung für Werlte wegen: Räumlicher Nähe zu OffshoreWindpark Nähe zur CO2-Quelle (Biogasanlage der Fa. EWE) Infrastruktur Werlte 13
  • 85. Japan エ ナ ジ ー ・リ ッ チ ・ジ ャ パ ン Shikoku Chubu Source: Harry Lehmann et.al. (2002)
  • 86. Archetypen einer EE Versorgung Intern. Coop Local Autarky Region Coop National / Local / nearby Centralized / big Decentralized / small International / far away Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 87. Archetypen einer EE Versorgung International / far away Centralized / big Decentralized / small D-I Intern. Coop Local Autarky Region Coop N-C National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)
  • 88. Steps... for 100% Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994
  • 89. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply
  • 90. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC)
  • 91. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy
  • 92. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind)
  • 93. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv)
  • 94. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems)
  • 95. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains – Landarea and Ressources
  • 96. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains – Landarea and Ressources Research & Development & Demonstration
  • 97. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains – Landarea and Ressources Research & Development & Demonstration Information & Training and Capacity Building
  • 98. 100% REN – Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains – Landarea and Ressources Research & Development & Demonstration Information & Training and Capacity Building Obtaining social support for the energy transition
  • 99. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Measures to accelerate the transformation of our energy system Atomic Energy Act (AtG) Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG) Energy Industry Act (EnWG) Ordinance on the Award of Public Contracts (VgV) Energy and Climate Fund Building Code on "Climate-friendly development" Key points on energy efficiency Combined Heat and Power Act 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 101
  • 100. „Energiewende“: A triple approach 100 measures in the three areas 1. Renewable energy sources: • Rapid, continuous expansion • Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly 2. Future grids: 3. Efficiency: • Flexible and powerful • Reduce energy consumption • Integration of electricity • Ensure efficiency from renewable sources
  • 101. 100 % regions Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994
  • 102. Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy Active regions for REN Über 50% sind aktiv, um die Weichen in Richtung 100% EE zu stellen. 03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 104
  • 103. RES dynamic in Germany More than 50% have set off! Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 105
  • 104. How can regions meet the target? 100% RES scenarios for the district of Osnabrück 3.900 GWh/a electricity from RES (150%) 2.300 GWh/a heat from RES (100%) Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 106
  • 105. EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal 1. The A.L.T − − Consists of 8 (joint)communities 75.000 inhabitants, 765 qkm − − Target: get a 100%-RES+Region 107 Good-Practice example for participation of inhabitants 107 Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie
  • 106. EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal 1. Development in the A.L.T. − − − − − − − 2009/10: climate protection concept for 114 municipal buildings implementation of RES in touristical aspects: „EnergieRoute“ for cyclists with 44 stations 2010/11: energy study for the hole A.L.T. 2010/11: initiation of an energy cooperative; not successful 2011: study of geothermal energy in the A.L.T. Mayor is part of the „Echo-Gruppe“ (consulting group) of the project 100ee-Regions 2012: Einstellung eines Klimaschutzmanagers 108
  • 107. EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal 2. Datas for RES in the A.L.T. plants install. capacity biogas 18 10,13 MW wind 54 87,62 MW water 5 5,39 MW photovoltaic 710 10,21 MW solarthermal 10.350 qm sum of the last 15 years: around investigations netto ca. € 42,0 Mio. € 127,5 Mio. € 0,1 Mio € 26,5 Mio. € 13,3 Mio. € 209 Mio. (estimation) 2.800 € for each inhabitant in the A.L.T. 109
  • 108. EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal 4. Energy balance for the A.L.T. Demand in Electricity Exess (in 2010) GWH 267,1* supply by RES in GWH Water 28,5 (10,7 %) Wind 169,7 (63,5 %) Biogas 80,1 (30 %) Photovoltaic 8,4 (3,1 %) Sum 286,7 (107,3%) 19,6 GWH * Electricity demand in 2009: 251 GWH / in 2008: 261 GWH / 2007: 276 GWH 110
  • 109. EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal 5. Energy study for the A.L.T. Tagets of the study: Answer the question if 100% RES are possible Show the potentials for RES and energy savings in the A.L.T. Contents of the study: Actual status of energy demand in electricity and heat sector Status of RES production Regional value creation from RES and energy savings Potential analysis of RES, geothermal energy and wood Development of model projects 111 Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 111
  • 110. EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal 5. The study: first results Energy demand in 2008: Electricity: 261 GWH Heat: 828 GWH Mobility: 851 GWH Sum: 1.940 GWH 112 Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 112
  • 111. Success Factors Key participants Strong partners in politics and economy On-site energy supplier Networking with other participants Mix of renewable energy sources Sustainable use of resources Sufficient financial resources Competent process management Regional energy sectors Convince the centre of RES Sources: Author‘s research, NOVA Institut, BAUM, u.a. Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 113
  • 112. 1 ton per cap and year Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994
  • 113. greenhouse gas neutral Germany in 2050 - GHG emissions in million tonnes of CO2-eq Source category 1. Energy 1990 2009 Scenario 2050 1.048 820 1.1 Energy sector 428 342 1.2 Manufacturing industries and construction 177 102 1.3 Transport 185 188 12 25 8 9 1.4 Other combustion systems 208 143 1.5 Fugitive emissions 30 11 2. Industrial processes 95 75 13 3. Solvents and other product uses 4 2 1 83 69 31-35 5. LULUCF - 28 17 13 6. Waste 43 12 3 1,245 995 61-65 1.3.1 International air transport 1.3.2 International maritime transport 4. Agriculture Total 0
  • 114. greenhouse gas neutral Germany in 2050 1400 GHG emissions in million tonnes of CO2-eq 1200 1000 Waste LULUCF 800 Agriculture 600 Industrial processes, Solvents and ot her product uses Transport 400 - 95% 200 0 1990 -200 2010 Scenario 2050 Energy (wit hout Transport)
  • 115. Need for a Systemic Policy Approach Climate Change Mitigation and Resource Productivity Liquid
  • 116. Save the Date: International Conference „Elements of a greenhouse gas neutral society“ 10th and 11th of October in Berlin, Germany •How can an industrialized society sharply cuts is greenhouse gas emissions? We will discuss diverse approaches and measures. •The conference will include sessions on: – – – – – Energy supply based on 100% renewable energy sources Approaches in sectors such as traffic, agriculture and food, waste & resources Industrial process related emissions Concepts and challenges in civil aviation and maritime transport Concepts and challenges: regional to local scale •More information on www.ghgns.eu
  • 117. 100% and more ... is possible Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994