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The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism
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The Economics of Innovation: The Road to Optimism

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Michael Mandel's presentation at MassTLC's 2010 Annual Meeting: Flipping the Switch from Survival to Growth

Michael Mandel's presentation at MassTLC's 2010 Annual Meeting: Flipping the Switch from Survival to Growth

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  • 1. The Road to Optimism Mass Technology Leadership Council March 31, 2010 Dr. Michael Mandel Editor-in-Chief Visible Economy LLC
  • 2. Brief Recap <ul><li>When I last spoke here on February 25, 2009, the global economy was going through a near-death economic experience </li></ul><ul><li>The S&P 500 hit its low on March 9, 2009, down almost 50% from a year earlier </li></ul><ul><li>Jobs were melting away like snow in the springtime </li></ul>
  • 3. <ul><li>And I was still chief economist at BusinessWeek </li></ul>
  • 4. <ul><li>Today, the global economy seems to be growing again </li></ul><ul><li>The U.S. stock market is nearing 1200, almost back to its pre-Bear-Stearns collapse level of 1288 (March 14, 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>The job market seems to be bottoming out </li></ul>
  • 5. <ul><li>And I am editor-in-chief and founder of a new venture, Visible Economy LLC , that combines news and education </li></ul><ul><li>(Plus an appt as a Senior Fellow at Wharton’s Mack Center for Technological Innovation. Plus my blog on growth and innovation. Plus…. </li></ul>
  • 6. <ul><li>But for all that has changed, the conclusion of my speech last year still holds </li></ul><ul><li>At that time, I linked the crisis to an innovation shortfall —the failure of many promising innovations to pay off since 1998 </li></ul>
  • 7. <ul><li>In a July 2009 BusinessWeek cover story, “Innovation, Interrupted,” I examined almost every breakthrough technology that seemed ripe for commercialization in 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>Cutting-edge cancer treatments; Gene therapy; Cloning; Fuel-cell-powered cars; Biotech-driven discovery of new drugs; Internet service from low-earth-orbit satellites; Miniaturized silicon-based machines (MEMS); Tissue engineering; Speech technology </li></ul>
  • 8. <ul><li>The same refrain came up over and over again. Successful commercialization was </li></ul><ul><li>“ harder/more complicated/more expensive than we thought” </li></ul>
  • 9. <ul><li>The one exception: Communications </li></ul><ul><li>Successful innovation in communications, broadly defined , has continued at a rapid pace. </li></ul>
  • 10. <ul><li>Communications did not escape the crisis…. </li></ul><ul><li>….but there are signs that communications may drive the next boom </li></ul>
  • 11. The Bust was Bad….
  • 12. …But Signs of Leveling Off
  • 13. Engineering Still Not Stabilized
  • 14. Mandel’s Second Law of Booms and Busts <ul><li>Industries which recover first in a bust tend to drive the next boom . </li></ul>
  • 15. <ul><li>After the 2001 bust, residential construction and real estate businesses started adding workers well before the rest of the economy recovered. </li></ul><ul><li>These was a clue to the coming housing boom </li></ul>
  • 16.  
  • 17. <ul><li>The industries that seem to be recovering first : </li></ul><ul><li>--Internet publishing, broadcasting and web search portals </li></ul><ul><li>--Computer systems design and programming </li></ul><ul><li>--Wireless telecom </li></ul>
  • 18.  
  • 19. <ul><li>The situation for biotech and pharma is more ambiguous </li></ul>
  • 20.  
  • 21. <ul><li>We are starting to see the harbingers of a communications-driven economic boom </li></ul><ul><li>I’ve put my money where my mouth is </li></ul>
  • 22. <ul><li>Will a communications boom be enough to overcome the drag from the rest of the economy? </li></ul><ul><li>Hard to tell. </li></ul><ul><li>(It sure would be nice to have a boost from the life sciences as well). </li></ul>
  • 23. <ul><li>But innovation is the wild card. </li></ul><ul><li>It can surprise on the upside, as well as the downside. </li></ul><ul><li>New products and services boost both demand and supply. </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation creates jobs, spurs growth </li></ul><ul><li>The essential missing ingredient. </li></ul>From last year’s presentation
  • 24. At Visible Economy our goal is to create lively news stories and videos that cover today's events, with clear and correct explanations. Unlike most journal-ism, these stories and videos are designed to fit easily with courses and other educational programs. We are non-partisan and non-promotional. Our motto: C redibility, consistency, clarity Michael Mandel Editor-in-chief [email_address]

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