Internet 2020: The Future Connection

INTERNET 2020: The Future Connection
Tom Leighton
Chief Scientist & Co-Founder

… and in 2020
State of the Internet Today
2020 (est.)
2010
Internet Users:
# of Unique IP addresses:
Average Connection Speed:
% connections > 5 Mbps:
E-Commerce Spend:
Online Advertising Spend:
4 billion4
5 billion2
10 Mbps2
50%2
$2.1 trillion3
$146 billion3
1.7 billion1
465 million2
1.7 Mbps2
21%2
$509 billion3
$62 billion3
1 Internet World Stats 2 Akamai 3eMarketer4 Pew Internet

POWERING A BETTER INTERNET
… and in 2020
Premium HD
Video
Delivery
Ads
Applications
Devices
Long Tail SD
Akamai Confidential
© 2010 Akamai

Olympic Games SYNDICATED through EU
Live webcast STEALSbroadcast share
24 Hours of music BROADCAST globally
Webcast EQUALScable-size audience
Flash crowd DoS ofonline fashion show
TV TRANSFERS audienceto Internet
Video on the Internet
1.1 Tbps
2002
2004
2007
2008
1999
2009
444 Gbps
125 Gbps
21.0 Gbps
15.9 Gbps
<1 Gbps

Video on the Internet
1.1 Tbps
Premium HD Video
over IP into the home
2008
2002
2004
2009
1999
2007
2020
2010

The Explosion of Media over IP
Today
700 million video users
10 mins of video daily
500 Kbps
2.4 Tbps
Future
2.1 billion video users
2 hrs of video daily
7.5 Mbps for hi-def content
1,296 Tbps
x3=
HD is the key
x12=
x15=
x540=

Catalyst for Video over IP
Today, the Akamai HD Network provides a state-of-the-art TV experience.
HD Quality
Multiple angles
Instant Replay
Adaptive Bitrate

Improving Last Mile Connectivity
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
4.4 Mbps
4 Mbps
3.6 Mbps
MB/Sec.
548 Kbps
249 Kbps
181 Kbps
2004
2004
2004
2009
2009
2009
EUROPE
APAC
US
(2004: ITU Internet Reports, "The Portable Internet")
(2009: Akamai Technologies)

6X
6X
Internet Infrastructure
Bottleneck
Economics
Growth
Web Content
$
$
$
$
$
$
First Mile
20X
20X
Tier 1 ISPs
MiddleMile
Local ISPs
$
$
$
$
$
$
50X
50X
Last Mile
Web Users

… and in 2020
Premium HD
Video
Delivery
Ads
Applications
Devices
Long Tail SD
Centralized
Distributed
Akamai Confidential
© 2010 Akamai

Problem 1 Centralizeddata centers are on the wrong side of the bottleneck
Data Centers
(10s)
Local ISPs
(1,000s)
Bottleneck
Users
The Internet Wasn’t Built for Video
Tier 1IPS’s
Tier 1IPS’s
Tier 1IPS’s
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge IPSs
August 18-20, 2008
Akamai 2008 Global Customer Conferece

Problem 2 Centralized data centers are far from end users
Local ISPs
(1,000s)
Data Centers
(10s)
Users
Tier 1IPS’s
Tier 1IPS’s
Tier 1IPS’s
CDN
CDN
CDN
500-5,000 miles
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge IPSs
August 18-20, 2008

Problem 2 Centralized data centers are far from end users
Solution Akamai servers are close to end users
Local ISPs
(1,000s)
Data Centers
(10s)
Akamai Servers
10-100 miles
Users
Akamai’s Distributed Approach to Content Delivery
Tier 1IPS’s
Tier 1IPS’s
Tier 1IPS’s
CDN
CDN
CDN
500-5,000 miles
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge ISPs
Edge IPSs
August 18-20, 2008

Download Time
Packet Loss
Network Latency
Distance from Server to User
Throughput
Local 10-100 mi.
0.6%
1.6 ms
12.2 min.
44 Mbps
Akamai
Regional 500-1000 mi.
0.7%
16 ms
2.2 hrs
4 Mbps
Centralized Data Center Approach
Cross Continent <3,000 mi.
1.0%
48 ms
8.16 hrs
1 Mbps
Different Continent <6,000 mi.
1.4%
96 ms
20 hrs
0.4 Mbps
Performance Matters!
Latency governs throughput, and thus the time to download large files (e.g., 4 GB DVDs)
Source: Internal Akamai testing, empirical network analysis

… and in 2020
Premium HD
Video
Delivery
Ads
Applications
Devices
Long Tail SD
Centralized
Distributed
Behavioral
Contextual
Akamai Confidential
© 2010 Akamai

advertisement
Ads Today: Contextual

advertisement
Home Buyers
Ads Future: Behavioral

advertisement
Motorcycle Enthusiasts
Ads Future: Behavioral

advertisement
Family Oriented
Ads Future: Behavioral: Re-marketing

Personalizing Video
Home Buyers
Motorcycle Enthusiasts

… and in 2020
Premium HD
Video
Delivery
Ads
Applications
Devices
Long Tail SD
Centralized
Distributed
Behavioral
Contextual
Client
Cloud
Akamai Confidential
© 2010 Akamai

Cloud Computing
Software as a Service
Virtualization
Optimization
Edge Applications
Application Platform as a Service
EdgeComputing
Infrastructure as a Service
Content Storage

Verizon
NAP
PaaS
SaaS
IaaS
L3
NAP
Cogent
Barriers to Cloud Adoption
Cloud servers reside in centralized data centers, farther away from the user
Consequences: Performance degradation and increased vulnerability
End User

Culprit in the Cloud: The Middle Mile
Typical number of round trips = 31
Globally Distributed
Users (Sydney)
Data Center (Atlanta)
The Cloud
Transfer Time7.75 Seconds
First Mile
Middle Mile
Last Mile

Optimize the Cloud: Fixing the Middle Mile with a Distributed Architecture
Globally Distributed
Users (Sydney)
Data Center (Atlanta)
The Cloud
Total response time reducedfrom 8.20 sec to1.45 sec
Round trips reduced from 31 to 5
First Mile
Middle Mile
Last Mile

Putting Cloud Optimization to Work
Virtual desktop performance (between New York and Colorado)
With Akamai IPA
Without Akamai
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
180
Seconds
82
69
46
34
30
Presentation Browsing
File Transfer
Viewing Pictures

Putting Cloud Optimization to Work
Global SaaS Application running on Amazon EC2 Infrastructure
59
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
30
Seconds
16
15
12
8
6
8
Australia
Asia
Europe
North America
With Akamai WAA
EC2

Centralized Infrastructure is at RiskMideast Cable Cut
Loss for pair, India, All
100
80
60
40
20
0
Loss (percent)
Jan 25
Jan 27
Jan 29
Jan 31
Feb 02
Feb 04
Feb 06
Feb 08
Feb 10
Feb 12
Feb 14
Feb 16
Feb 18
Generic Internet Akamai

State of Internet Security Today
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
3,462
2,750
2,029
1,875
Volume of Vulnerabilities
2008
2007
2008
2007
(Web Application Vulnerabilities)
(Non-Web Application Vulnerabilities)
Source: Symantec Internet Security Threat Report, April 2009

Peak Attack Traffic per year
49
50 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
250 225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
40
>200
24
Attack Size - Gbps
17
10
2.5
1.2
2008
2009
2007
2006
2002
2003
2004
2005
(Akamai Technologies)
(Arbor Networks)

July 4, 2009 Attack
Times Above Normal Traffic
598x
369x
39x
19x
9x
6x
SITE DOWN before Akamai
Customer – PROTECTED
U.S. Government Customer 1
New U.S. Government Customer
Peak Traffic
124 Gbps
32 Gbps
9 Gbps
9 Gbps
2 Gbps
1.9 Gbps
0.7 Gbps

Web Site with Centralized Delivery
Cloud Datacenter
End User
Traffic
10000
1000
100
10
1

Web Site with Centralized Delivery
X
Cloud Datacenter
End User
Traffic
10000
1000
100
10
1

Web Site with Distributed Architecture
Cloud Datacenter
End User
Traffic
10000
1000
100
10
1

VISA
VISA
VISA
VISA
VISA
Problems
Fast-growing PCI Audit Expense & Credit Card Risk
Transactions:Tokenization & Payment Services
Akamai Edge Servers
CloudDatacenter
Merchant
Data Vault

VISA
VISA
Future Solution
Problems
Akamai Tokenization & Payment Services
Fast-growing PCI Audit Expense & Credit Card Risk
TOKEN
Transactions:Tokenization & Payment Services
MerchantBank
Akamai Edge Servers
CloudDatacenter
Merchant
Data Vault

… and in 2020
Premium HD
Video
Delivery
Ads
Applications
Devices
Long Tail SD
Centralized
Distributed
Behavioral
Contextual
Client
Cloud
Desktop
Mobile
Akamai Confidential
© 2010 Akamai

Desktop moves to even more devices

Problem
Content needs modification based on device type
Mobile Delivery Today
Origin Web Server
Wireless
User

Solution
Problem
Automatic Akamai transcoding at the Edge
Content needs modification based on device type
Future Mobile Delivery
Akamai Edge Servers
Origin Web Server
Wireless
User

Future Mobile Apps
Click to call nearest store
Automatic GPS-based map to nearest store
Nearest store with desired product

Mobile Payments 2020

Mobile Healthcare Diagnostics 2020
Courtesy Gentag

The IP-connected Automobile

… and in 2020
Premium HD
Video
Delivery
Ads
Applications
Devices
Long Tail SD
Centralized
Distributed
Behavioral
Contextual
Client
Cloud
Desktop
Mobile
Akamai Confidential
© 2010 Akamai

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Internet 2020: The Future Connection

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Internet 2020: The Future Connection — Presentation Transcript