Topic 07 money and prices


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Topic 07 money and prices

  1. 1. Topic 07 Money, Prices,and the Financial System 16-1
  2. 2. Learning Objectives1. Describe the role of financial intermediaries2. Differentiate between bonds and stocks and show why their prices are inversely related to interest rates3. Explain how the financial system improves the allocation of saving to productive uses4. Discuss the three functions of money and how the money supply is measured5. Analyze how the lending behavior of commercial banks affects the money supply6. Explain how the central bank controls the money supply and its relation to inflation in the long run 16-2
  3. 3. Money in Economics• The term "money" in economics has a specific meaning different from every day use• To an economist: – Your paycheck is income – The income you dont spend is saving – The increase in the value of your stock is a capital gain – When your house appreciates, your wealth increases 16-3
  4. 4. The Allocation of Saving• A successful economy allocates its saving to the most productive investments• The interest on deposits is one important reason people put their saving in banks• The financial system improves the allocation of saving: – Provides information to savers about the possible uses of their funds – Help savers share the risks of individual investment projects • Risk sharing makes funding possible for projects that are risky but potentially very productive 16-4
  5. 5. Banking System• Financial intermediaries are firms that extend credit to borrowers using funds raised from savers – Thousands of commercial banks accept deposits from individuals and businesses and make loans – Banks and other intermediaries specialize in evaluating the quality of borrowers • Principle of Comparative Advantage • Banks have a lower cost of evaluating opportunities than an individual would • Banks pool the saving of many individuals to make large loans 16-5
  6. 6. Banking System• Banks gather information about potential investments – Evaluate the options – Direct saving – Service provided to depositors• Banks provide access to credit for small businesses and homeowners – May be the only source of credit for some investments• When banks make loans, they earn interest which, in turn, is paid to the banks depositors 16-6
  7. 7. The Banking System• Having bank deposits makes payments easier – Checks – ATMs – Debit card• Checks and debit cards are safer than cash• Banks provide a record of your transactions 16-7
  8. 8. Japanese Banking Crisis, 1990s• Japanese banks fell into severe trouble – Property values decreased and some loans on real estate went into default – Banks held stocks and the stock values decreased• Japan had relied on banks to allocate its saving – Thin financial markets – Borrowers had difficulty obtaining credit – Small- and medium-sized businesses suffered – Credit shortages prolonged the recession as businesses struggled to fund new projects 16-8
  9. 9. Bonds• A bond is a legal promise to repay a debt• Each bond specifies – Principal amount, the amount originally lent – Maturation date, the date when the principal amount will be repaid • The term of a bond is the length of time from issue to maturation – Coupon payments, the periodic interest payments to the bondholder – Coupon rate, the interest rate that is applied to the principal to determine the coupon payments 16-9
  10. 10. Bonds• Corporations and governments issue bonds• The coupon rate depends on – The bonds term • 30 days to 30 years; longer term, higher coupon rate – The issuers credit risk • Probability the issuer will default on repayment • Higher risk, higher coupon rate – Tax treatment for the coupon payments • Municipal bonds are free from federal taxes • Lower taxes, lower coupon rates 16-10
  11. 11. Bond Market• Bonds can be sold before their maturation date – Market value at any time is the price of the bond – Price depends on the relationship between the coupon rate and the interest rate in financial markets• A two-year government bond with principal $1,000 is sold for $1,000, 1/1/12 – Coupon rate is 5% – $50 will be paid 1/1/13 – $1,050 will be paid 1/1/14• Bonds price on 1/1/10 depends on the prevailing interest rate 16-11
  12. 12. Selling a Bond• Offer for sale: one government bond with payment of $1,050 due in one year• The competition: a new one-year bond with principal of $1,000 and coupon rate of 6% – Pays $1,060 in one year• Year-old bond with 5% coupon rate is less valuable than the new bond – Price of the used bond will be less than $1,000 (Bond price) (1.06) = $1,050 Bond price = $991• Bond prices and interest rates are inversely related 16-12
  13. 13. Stocks• A share of stock is a claim to partial ownership of a firm – Receive dividends, a periodic payment determined by management – Receive capital gains if the price of the stock increases• Prices are determined in the stock market – Reflect supply and demand 16-13
  14. 14.• New company with estimated dividend of $1 in 1 year – Estimated selling price of stock will be $80 in 1 year – Interest rate is 6%• Value of the new stock is $81 in 1 year (Stock price) (1.06) = $81 Stock price = $76.42 – Value would be higher if: • Dividend were higher • Price of stock in one year were higher • Interest rate were lower 16-14
  15. 15. Risk Premium• Risk premium is the rate of return investors require to hold risky assets minus the rate of return on safe assets• Suppose interest on a safe investment is 6% – is risky, so 10% return is required – Stock will sell for $80 in 1 year; dividend will be $1 (Stock price) (1.10) = $81 Stock price = $73.64• Risk aversion increases the return required of a risky stock and lowers the selling price 16-15
  16. 16. Bond Markets and Stock Markets• Channel funds from savers to borrowers with productive investment opportunities – Sale of new bonds or new stock can finance capital investment• Like banks, bond and stock markets allocate saving – Provision of information on investment projects and their risks – Provide risk sharing and diversification across projects • Diversification is spreading ones wealth over a variety of investments to reduce risk 16-16
  17. 17. Benefits of Diversification• Vikram has $200 to invest in stocks, each $100 Increase in Stock Price per Share Actual Weather Smith Umbrella Jones Suntan Lotion Rainy (50%) +$10 $0 Sunny (50%) $0 +$10• Buy 2 shares of either stock – 50% chance of $20 gain and 50% chance of $0• Diversify and buy 1 share of each – One stock will be worth $100 and the other will be worth $110 • Return is $10 with no risk 16-17
  18. 18. Stock and Bond Markets• Savers can put saving into a variety of financial assets – Diversification makes risky but potentially valuable projects possible • No individual saver bears the whole risk • Society is better off• A mutual fund is a financial intermediary that sells shares in itself to the public, then uses the funds raised to buy a wide variety of financial assets. – Diversified asset for the saver – Less costly than buying many stocks and bonds directly 16-18
  19. 19. Rise and Fall of the US Stock Market• Standard & Poors 500 index rose 60% between 1990 and 1995 – More than doubled 1995 – 2000 – Lost 40% of its value Jan 2001 – Jan 2003 – Returned to Jan 2000 level by Jan 2008• Increase in stock prices can be due to – Increased optimism about future value – A fall in required return 16-19
  20. 20. Rise and Fall of the US Stock Market• In the 1990s, optimism was high – Strong dividends – Promise of new technologies• Risk premium declined – Increased diversification through mutual funds – Investors may have underestimated risk• Optimism and risk premium trends reversed in 2000 – Many high-tech firms less profitable than expected – Corporate accounting scandals of 2002 – Terrorist attack in US 16-20
  21. 21. Money• Money is any asset that can be used in making purchases – Examples include coins and currency, checking account balances, and travelers checks – Shares of stock are not money• Money has three principal uses 1.Medium of exchange 2.Unit of account 3.Store of value• Money makes barter unnecessary – Barter is trading goods directly 16-21
  22. 22. Private Money• Money is usually issued and controlled by the government• Private money can develop in certain circumstances• An Ithaca Hour is worth $10, the average hourly wage of workers – 1,600 individuals have earned and spent this currency • Encourages local shopping• LETS (Local Electronic Trading System) is electronic money from buying and selling goods and services – Used in UK, Australia, and New Zealand 16-22
  23. 23. Measuring Money March 2010• Definitions of money range from narrow to broad M1 ($B) $1,712.3 Currency $871.7 Demand deposits 445.5 Other checkable deposits 390.0 Travelers checks 5.1 M2 ($B) $8,512.5 M1 $1,712.3 Savings deposits 4,935.4 Small-denomination time notes 1,105.0 Money market mutual funds 759.8 16-23
  24. 24. Commercial Banks Create Money• Republic of Gorgonzola begins with no banking system – Government issues 1 million guilders – Banks are created to store cash • Payments are made by withdrawing cash or writing checks – Checks tell bankers of change in ownership of the specified number of guilders – Without interest, banks earn profits by charging depositors fees 16-24
  25. 25. Consolidated Bank Balance Sheet – Part 1• All guilders (g) are deposited Assets Liabilities Currency 1,000,000 g Deposits 1,000,000 g• Bank reserves are cash or similar assets held by banks – Used to meet depositors withdrawals and payments – Gorgonzolas banks have 100% reserves • 100% reserve banking is when banks reserves equal 100% of their deposits 16-25
  26. 26. Bank Reserves• Cash in a banks vault is not part of the money supply – Unavailable for payments – Bank deposits available for use in transactions are part of the money supply • Depositing a $100 bill in your checking account does not change the money supply• Bankers realize that inflows and outflows from vaults leave some guilders unused – Only 10% of deposits are needed for transactions – 90% can be lent to borrowers for a fee -- interest 16-26
  27. 27. Consolidated Bank Balance Sheet – Part 2• Currency held in the vault is the bank reserves Assets Liabilities Currency 100,000 g Deposits 1,000,000 g Loans 900,000 g• The reserve – deposit ratio is bank reserves divided by total deposits• Fractional reserve banking system holds less bank reserves than deposits – The reserve – deposit ratio is less than 100% 16-27
  28. 28. Consolidated Bank Balance Sheet – Part 3• Farmers borrow 900,000 guilders to buy supplies – Farmers spend the 900,000 guilders which are then deposited in the banks Assets Liabilities Currency 1,000,000 g Deposits 1,900,000 g Loans 900,000 g• Bank deposits are the entire money supply – Loan of 900,000 guilders increased the money supply by 900,000 guilders• Banks are again holding excess reserves on deposits of 1,900,000 guilders 16-28
  29. 29. Consolidated Bank Balance Sheet – Part 4• With deposits of 1,900,000 guilders and a reserve – deposit ratio of 10%, banks want only 190,000 guilders in reserves – Currently holding 1,000,000 guilders – Loan 810,000 guilders Assets Liabilities Currency 1,000,000 g Deposits 2,710,000 g Loans 1,710,000 g – Loan are spent and re-deposited • Excess reserves are created and re-loaned 16-29
  30. 30. Consolidated Bank Balance Sheet – The End• Expansion of loans and deposits stops when reserves are 10% of deposits – 1,000,000 guilders available as reserves – Deposits stabilize at 10,000,000 guilders Assets Liabilities Currency 1,000,000 g Deposits 10,000,000 g Loans 9,000,000 g• Beginning with 1,000,000 guilders in cash, the money supply is now 10,000,000 guilders 16-30
  31. 31. Money Creation• With 10% reserves, each guilder supports 10 guilders in deposits• Deposits in the banking system satisfy this relationship Bank reserves = Desired reserve – deposit ratio Bank deposits• Solving for bank deposits we get Bank reserves Bank deposits = Desired reserve – deposit ratio 16-31
  32. 32. Money Supply with Currency and Deposits• Gorgonzola residents hold 500,000 guilders as currency – Deposit 500,000 guilders in the banks – Reserve-deposit ratio = 10% – Bank deposits = 500,000 / 0.10 = 5,000,000 guilders – Money supply = 500,000 cash + 5,000,000 deposits = 5,500,000 guilders Money supply = Currency held by public + Bank reserves Desired reserve – deposit ratio 16-32
  33. 33. Money Supply at Christmas• Suppose banks hold $500 billion in reserves and the public holds $500 billion in cash – Reserve-deposit ratio = 0.20 – Money supply = $500 + (500 / 0.20) = $3,000• As Christmas approaches, consumers reduce bank deposits by $100 billion – Banks have $400 billion in reserves; public holds $600 billion cash – Money supply = $600 + ($400 / 0.20) = $2,600• Reducing bank deposits reduces the money supply 16-33
  34. 34. The Federal Reserve System• The Fed is the central bank of the US – Responsible for monetary policy and the oversight and regulation of financial markets• Monetary policy is deciding and managing the size of the nations money supply – Money supply is controlled indirectly • Open-market purchase of government bonds from the pubic by the Fed increases bank reserves and the money supply • Open market sale of government bonds by the Fed to the public decreases reserves and money supply 16-34
  35. 35. Open Market Operations• When the Fed purchases a bond from the public – Fed pays bond holder with new money • Receipts are deposited and this leads to a multiple expansion of the money supply• When the Fed sells a bond to the public – Bondholder pays with checking funds • Bank reserves decrease and this leads to a multiple contraction of the money supply 16-35
  36. 36. Increasing the Money Supply• An economy has 1,000 shekels in currency and bank reserves of 200 shekels – Reserve-deposit ratio = 0.2 – Money supply = 1,000 + (200 / 0.2) = 2,000 shekels• Central bank pays 100 shekels for a bond held by the public – Assume that all 100 shekels are deposited – Money supply = 1,000 + (300/ 0.2) = 2,500 shekels – 100 shekel increase in reserves leads to a 500 shekel increase in the money supply 16-36
  37. 37. Money and Prices• In the long run, the amount of money circulating and the level of prices are closely linked – Sustained high inflation rates occur with a comparably high growth rate of the money supply 16-37
  38. 38. Velocity of Money (V)• Velocity is a measure of the speed money changes hands in transactions for final goods and services Nominal GDP Velocity = Money stock• Nominal GDP is the price level (P) times real GDP (Y) Px Y• M is the money stock V= M 16-38
  39. 39. Velocity in the US, 2009• M1 = $1,693.3 billion• M2 = $8,524.3 billion• Nominal GDP = $14,258.7 billion• Using M1, velocity is 8.42 $14,258.7 V= = 8.42 1,693.3• Using M2, velocity is 1.67 $14,258.7 V= = 1.67 8,524.3• Velocity is determined by a number of factors including technology such as ATMs and debit cards 16-39
  40. 40. Money and Inflation in the Long Run• The quantity equation states that money times velocity equals nominal GDP, M x V = P x Y – Restatement of the velocity definition• Shows a relationship between money and price level – Suppose velocity and real GDP are constant V and Y, respectively• The quantity equation becomes MxV=PxY – An increase in the money supply by a given percentage would increase the price level by the same percentage 16-40
  41. 41. Money, Prices, and the Financial System Financial Quantity Equation System Open Market Money Stocks OperationsDiversification Bonds Reserves Federal Banks Reserve System 16-41