Management Futures - The World in 2018
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Management Futures - The World in 2018

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The world of business has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. The management and leadership skills needed to survive today, let alone prosper, are very different from those of a generation ago, ...

The world of business has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. The management and leadership skills needed to survive today, let alone prosper, are very different from those of a generation ago, and those skills are likely to change dramatically over the next generation.
Based on the perspectives of a broad range of business leaders, futurologists and academics and a close analysis of the trends affecting UK organisations, it investigates two fundamental issues:
- What will the world of work and management look like in 2018?
- What do we need to start doing to enable business leaders to deal with tomorrow?

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    Management Futures - The World in 2018 Management Futures - The World in 2018 Document Transcript

    • ManageMent Futures The World in 2018 Chartered Management Institute March 2008www.managers.org.uk
    • 2 1.0 Contents Foreword Page no. As the Chartered Management Institute set out to leadership. It has been challenging as we were investigate the future of work and management, confronted in the discussions and the 1.0 Foreword  there was one overriding objective. The study accompanying research with a very broad range should be a useful resource for busy leaders and of relevant issues. Out of these we have extracted managers who are contemplating the future of what we believe to be the most important issues their businesses. It should be a pointer to relevant for management and leadership. 2.0 Introduction 4 future issues. It should support the strategy I hope this study will help organisations plan process in a practical way. how to stay productive and competitive, retain No single study can be all-encompassing since high calibre and motivated staff and prepare for 3.0 executive summary / Key Findings 5 every organisation is unique. Leaders and the future. managers will know their businesses best, but if sir John sunderland this study can challenge perceptions, enhance Chairman 4.0 the Probable Future – ‘the World Continued’ 7 discussions and broaden future perspectives, then Cadbury Schweppes plc it will have reached its goal. 4.1 Recommendations for ‘The World Continued’ 10 This has been a fascinating and at the same time 4.2 Clusters of opportunities in ‘The World Continued’ 14 challenging project. Fascinating because of the opportunity to hold in-depth discussions with managers and leaders, experts in their fields, and 5.0 the unexpected Future – alternative World Futures 16 to listen to their views of the future and the impact it may have on management and 6.0 a Desired World Future 2 7.0 How Future Competent is Your Organisation? 25 “ veryintelligentthinghasalreadybeenthought. E Youjusthavetotrytothinkitagainattherighttime.“ (Johann Wolfgang von goethe) 
    • 2.0 3.0 Introduction executive summary The world of business has changed dramatically know methodically in order to understand what it The views and opinions of the panelists and • Personal responsibilities will increase and in the last 10 years. Markets, competitors and means. This is what this study is about. experts consulted for this study and the analysis so will people’s private needs. Attending to means of supply have become increasingly of trends provide a distinctive picture of what the these needs will inevitably lead to blurring Based on the perspectives of a broad range of complex and technologically driven and are world of work will look like in 2018. They also boundaries between work and life as people business leaders, futurologists and academics and becoming more so every day. The management highlight the challenges that managers and try to cope with numerous urgent demands. and leadership skills needed to survive today, let a close analysis of the trends affecting UK leaders may face in three different futures – the Work-life balance will be superseded by work- alone to prosper, are very different from those of organisations, it investigates two fundamental issues: probable, the unexpected and the desired. life integration a generation ago, and those skills are likely to • What will the world of work and • Talent markets will become more complex in change dramatically again over the next the probable future – ‘the World management look like in 2018? that they will be more diverse with regard to generation. More than ever before, business Continued’ age, generational issues and culture. leaders need to equip themselves with a clear • What do we need to start doing to enable Key findings: Organisations will have to address the growing idea of what the future might hold and take business leaders to deal with tomorrow? • Brazil, Russia, India and China will have a power of the employee and the need for action to ensure that they are as prepared as they greater influence on business markets and The study distinguishes between the probable personalised working patterns and benefits. can be for its challenges and opportunities. transform the business landscape future, based on assumptions, the unexpected • Business models and structures will change in the unexpected future – ‘alternative We can neither predict nor determine the future. future, based on surprises, and the desired future, nature. There will be a polarisation from global Future Worlds’ What we can do is see more of it and, with that based on vision, and demonstrates how strategies vision, get a better grip on it. This study sets out corporates to virtual-community-based enterprises Key findings: can be implemented to create a desired future. It to find out what the future of work and • In order to succeed, organisations will need • Other versions of tomorrow initiated by offers detailed, specific recommendations on how management looks like and examine how technology that is able to capture and analyse unforeseen events are also possible. The study businesses can take steps now to create their businesses can prepare for it. It aims to identify implicit and tacit knowledge and allow the sharing uncovered 16 such events and developments, place in the future. the forces that will change and influence the of knowledge with customers and partners such as the world coming under cyber attack, world of work in 2018 and make a significant The analysis undertaken in this study provides the the “brain-enhanced” world and the world run • The working population will be more diverse. contribution to management thinking that will basis for understanding the future of work and by robots Changing expectations of work and the impact influence and shape business and policy decisions management. It offers practical recommendations of new technologies will require managers and • Solutions to unforeseen events revolve around over the next decade. for how desired futures can be created. For leaders to develop a new range of skills that areas such as multiple back-ups for intellectual The future exists in our minds and information organisations and managers it offers a way to focus on emotional and spiritual intelligence, property, building a knowledge bank on the use that indicates future developments is readily begin a journey from where we are today to future judgement and the ability to stimulate creative and misuse of enhancement technologies and available. However, we need to examine what we states of higher competence and competitiveness. thinking to improve productivity the use of robots for basic management practices 4 5
    • 3.0 4.0 the Probable Future – ‘the World Continued’ • Organisations should prepare for the unexpected recommendations to leaders and managers What will the future of work and environmental factors and regulations become future by introducing more flexibility and To create their desired future, businesses should: management look like? increasingly relevant. Faster and shorter lifecycles will openness to change as these will serve as a basic The scenario ‘The World Continued’ describes be common in products and market prices will • Build knowledge about key future issues in safeguard against potential surprises. what is believed to be the most probable picture become increasingly transparent. business markets of the world of work and management in 2018. Business models will change their nature, be more the desired future – ‘Vision of • Be more flexible with regard to business models and It serves to paint a picture of the future world and diverse, more customer-centric and change more the Future’ understand the ways different businesses operate gives an indication of the key issues for organisations quickly. We will see a polarisation of business models Key findings: • Understand business drivers and culture and managers to consider. Although these have from global corporations to virtual-community-based Taking all the possible scenarios and surprises into • Manage the complexity of people’s tasks by been broken down into ten areas there are enterprises. Large corporations will grow even bigger account the study created a picture of what the reducing noise and information overload interconnections and relationships between them and there will be more small niche-oriented future organisation would be like, how it would • Bring together specialist functions and manage which must be taken into account. It is these specialised associate businesses around. There will be operate, how it would feel to work there and workflow in an integrated way interconnections that are critical to ensuring a holistic a more diverse and expansive range of business how it would manage its people. The conclusions long-term approach in preparing for the future. models and ownership structures. The growth of • Focus on individual employees and their needs include a world in 2018 where: social enterprise and open source technology will when developing work technologies Business markets will be noticeably influenced • More organisations will be wholly virtual. challenge traditional business models. New business • Make organisations more human by new players from Brazil, Russia, India, China, There will be a greater polarisation between models involving integrated customer and supply • Motivate people creatively Eastern Europe and other developing countries as the number of organisations that are virtual chains, global product development and servicing will well as global businesses. As new business models and large global corporations • Obtain access and understand the dynamic create new ways of working. are introduced to respond to these changes there mechanisms of the talent markets • Those organisations that maintain physical will need to be a greater emphasis on new skills Business structures will change in character, premises will be run by managers who • Provide flexible, tailored support for work-life such as understanding diversity and foreign cultures. being more diverse, open to the outside world and create a sense of control and calm. The integration. Organisations will have to be increasingly community-based. They will also be more employee- energy that is currently expended addressing Furthermore, strengthening an organisation will knowledgeable about world markets as financial centric, especially those that are built on the immediate issues will be channelled into more require enhancing agility, clarity, flexibility, affairs and interconnections between seemingly productivity of talented employees. Customer productive activities genuineness, innovativeness and openness. independent events may have a dramatic effect on participation in business will increase, e.g. customers • There will be a greater fluidity of skills and Finally, taking the notion of unforeseen events their business. Trade blocs within and across markets will be producing content, innovating and supporting movement across different environments, seriously, thinking these through diligently and will experience more competition and conflict, while businesses. More non-traditional employment with collaboration and political skills investing in contingencies may prove to be governments within trade blocs will have increased arrangements (e.g. self-employment, temporary work, becoming critical. business life-saving in the long run. their collaboration. New industries will be created as shared work, free agents, e-lancing) will be the norm. 6 7
    • 4.0 The tasks of people within organisations more multi generational, multi cultural and remote. As the demography of the world changes balance will become work-life integration as will have a new focus. On all levels there will be As social changes from the past 0 years take society will increasingly have an impact on boundaries between work and life merge. a move toward up-skilling and multi-skilling. effect women will have moved into higher behaviour and leadership styles at work. Private needs of people will increase in Innovation and creativity will have become key to management positions. Dealing with these changes Emotional intelligence and the ability to interact intensity as private responsibilities relating to ageing most tasks and having soft and social skills will be will require talented and prudent managers who and communicate with others in accordance with relatives and child care grow. Attending to these critical. On the other hand, hard and technical excel in analysis, evaluation and above all good their values, as opposed to technical competencies needs will inevitably lead to blurring boundaries skills will also be increasingly valued within the judgement. Access to external talent and and knowledge, will become more important in between work and life as people try to cope with workplace as their rarity increases. Nevertheless, management of talent will become essential. the management recruitment process. numerous urgent demands. Job choice too will be there will be a great diversity in the skills of the Employee protest against having to become influenced by private preferences, e.g. with regard Organisations will require new and enhanced workers. Employees will be required to be more more productive without seeing increases in to location. Health improvement will become a key technologies for their work flexible with regard to organisational needs, wages will lead to increased mobility. Cost, motivation. People will insist on health, medical and environments. Permanent, fast and mobile e.g. project staffing for efficiency may require regulations and the value of the green movement other facilities that support well-being to be internet connections will be omni-present, which service on call and time slot assignments as will force companies to address societal issues integrated in their work environment. will in itself introduce challenges for managers opposed to work shifts and work days’ such as environmental sustainability. and employees as they struggle to analyse and Talent markets will become more complex and allocations. The use of IT will become easier and filter the constant stream of information. Learning Work needs of people will change as they more diverse with regard to age, generational the majority of routine tasks will be automated. to manage technology and understanding how to work in distributed geographies. Managers will issues, culture etc, and will require more Social networking and online communities will disengage from it will have an increased have to deploy skills in leading and managing such sophisticated recruitment processes. The proportion become common work tools. importance. Technologies that can handle virtual teams. The output of work will be the of employees coming from abroad will increase. The increased monitoring and surveillance of work increasingly virtual contact and implicit and tacit measure of productivity as opposed to input of Complexity in working life will lead to workers on all levels will require organisations to ensure that knowledge will be required for running time and resources. Sense-making and value- having greater anxiety and stress levels that they have many of the management skills such distributed workplaces and offering personalised orientation will have become essential for work managers will have to address regularly. Talented as interpersonal skills, building alliances, strategic support. Some aspects of the tasks and motivation. Dissatisfied employees will vote with people will be demanding a great deal of personal planning and political skills that are needed in responsibilities currently performed by managers their feet and change jobs more often, as control, leading to a power shift from employers business today. As business models demand an will be run by highly sophisticated collaboration traditional careers become increasingly rare. to employees. The best talents will mix work increasingly flexible and transient workforce, software. Gaming technologies will significantly Many talented people will be multi-employed, with lifestyle. securing intellectual property and information will influence work and management. Technologies some of them working more than one day a week become an important challenge and will have to be for capturing wisdom and wisdom management in so called “third place locations” outside their managed. Furthermore, work teams will become will emerge. organisations and their home offices. Work-life 8 
    • 4.1 recommendations for ‘the World Continued’ Assuming that the scenario ‘The World Key action points for organisations organisation will improve products and services. leadership and change management skills to Continued‘ is the most probable version of the and managers Customers will also provide the organisation with implement it. Negotiation will become a key skill to future of work and management in the next Business markets: knowledge is key feedback on their perception in the marketplace be mastered. Teaching these skills in a creative and decade, the question is ”What can we do and test their ethical and environmental credentials. playful way will aid learning. Market and competitor intelligence is an important about it now to prepare ourselves and our ingredient in the success of any organisation and this The organisation of 2018 will have to be expert at tasks of people within organisations: organisations?”. will be increasingly so in the future. Organisations running more than one business model at a time. It managing complexity is key From the whole range of findings of this study, will need to gather and build knowledge about will need to be able to change models rapidly in The changing demographics as well as the we have picked out the most relevant action external developments like environmental issues, accordance with changing needs, for instance by diverse nature of employment will require points and opportunities for the management social changes and competitive intelligence by using building a specialised unit for creating and incubating organisations to reintroduce the role of the and leadership agenda. Not all action points can specialised systems and services. Systems that scan new business ideas and models and migrating to or apprentice through mentoring systems and be applied to all organisations in the same way as databases and the internet for early warning signs spinning off the most promising ones. With the alternative training programmes. they differ in many aspects, like type of industry, with regard to different issues, such as employee increasing importance of globalisation, business size, geography, output, design, diversity, models will need to be analysed and evaluated in the Technology will play an even greater role as human de-motivation, industrial espionage and future ownership, degree of integration, business cycle, context of different cultures. resources are managed by systems that take into developments, will need to be installed. relations to customers or management functions, account the individuality and skill set of each Organisations should use distribution power to build With immediate access to so many data sources employee. Likewise systems that manage and track roles and responsibilities. business models that make use of the “long tail” managers will need to ensure that they have the results on different work levels and help automate Similarly, many of the management skills selling a greater number of otherwise hard-to-find skills to analyse complex data from multiple sources some of the more mundane managerial tasks in highlighted are already practised and will not items in small volumes, rather than selling a small and use their judgement to make decisions. complex projects will have become the norm. change. Every individual will need to decide which number of popular items in large volumes. Business models: flexibility is key Successful managers will be those who are more adept is best for them based on their role, their function Business models that are based on local and at managing distributed tasks and bringing together and their organisation. What will change is the Organisations will need to create business models that regional goods and operations should be employed, the achieved results effortlessly to a coherent whole. greater emphasis on key skills which are not not only exceed customer expectations but anticipate, thus keeping contact with local suppliers. Smaller Strong project management skills will be essential. necessarily functionally specific and the greater provoke and stretch them. These customer-centric businesses should differentiate themselves by need for skills and competencies to be interlinked. models will need to adapt as customer needs change excelling in customer service and responsiveness. Management needs: awareness is key and be driven by the values of customers. With this in mind, the way recommendations Managers and leaders will benefit by having the As the role of employees changes, recruitment can be used and applied in organisations will be Involving customers in the value chain, proactively expertise to identify which business model is practices will be required to evolve. It will be necessary very different. seeking their input and treating them as part of the appropriate to use at any time and have the strong for organisations to develop recruitment processes 10 11
    • 4.1 such as psychometric testing that will place more and guidelines. Work knowledge should be A greater degree of emotional intelligence will be Managers will need to engage genuinely with emphasis on selecting managers not only for their integrated with personal systems, with users having required by managers so that they can understand employees in all aspects of their life and offer them management competencies but also their 24-hour access. Specialised systems should be used how people work and their likely reactions to the support services that are relevant to them. emotional and spiritual intelligence. for running networks and communities so that they change. They will also benefit from having the Individuals’ strengths should be nurtured and serve the business purpose in different ways, such as humility to accept that they are not always the developed rather than focusing on their weaknesses. Training and coaching skills will have more customer involvement in the value chain and market ones with the best or most appropriate ideas. significance. Managers should look at deploying talent markets: access is key segmentation observation. training and coaching activities to raise people’s Work needs of people: motivation is key The changing nature of talent markets will awareness and self-awareness. Their main role will society: humanness is key As business models become more customer-centric require organisations to use distributed work move from having a predominately functional Partnerships and collaborative working are important and increased competition leads to a greater need to programmes to attract and retain talented focus to one in which their main aim will be to constituents of the successful organisation of the differentiate, organisations will need to organise individuals who want extensive control over coach others to get their job done better. future. Positions and titles may prevent collaboration themselves from the bottom, taking much more into where and when they work. Managers will have Knowledge and wisdom management will be key so consideration should be given to abolishing them. account the needs of employees at the frontline, to understand networks and communities and the to organisational success. The manager of 2018 will Instead each employee should be seen as a valuable serving the customer. The work environment should be behaviour of participants and work with them in need to be adept at capturing people’s tacit knowledge resource to be employed according to specific built so as to encourage creative thinking and analytical order to achieve their business goals. in a variety of ways without discouraging them by organisational needs. skills. A successful organisation will design structures As more work becomes project-based individuals pressing their thoughts into a pre-set structure. and processes according to individual employee needs. Wisdom will become a valuable resource so will need to use specialised services to market More creative and varied methods of increasing organisations will want to access the societal, cultural Private needs of people: support is key themselves and their skill sets for ad-hoc projects. productivity such as task automations, short cuts, and organisational memory via practices such as Changing demographics and an increasingly Products and services which find the right human energy and attention focus will need to be used. organisational rituals, gatherings and accounts of demanding workforce will mean successful resource at the right time, e.g. by using specialised long-term employees. This tacit knowledge can be organisations will offer more tailored lifestyle resource databases and matching them to client technologies for work environments: accessed via storytelling, anecdotes and case studies. benefits to their employees. The increasing age projects, will become essential. Understanding of individuality is key Organisations must increasingly use products and profile will require organisations to focus on the the differences between diverse members of the Systems will be required to have intuitive interfaces solutions that facilitate wisdom. The plethora of ageing workforce and offer specialised products workforce and awareness of their different and be designed specifically for the individual user. information that will be available will require and services. These could include wellness learning and leadership styles will be vital. Skills Organisations will benefit from discovering alternative organisations to apply judgement, find interconnections treatments, health guidelines, functional furniture sets will have to be managed in line with the tasks ways to access knowledge and technology, such as and produce meaning as a counter-measure against etc. Organisational cultures will need to move at hand through the help of personal coaches, semantic networks which help pursue goals, values the growing loss of intellectual property. from work-life balance to work-life integration. specialised software and e-learning. 12 1
    • 4.2 Clusters of opportunities in ‘the World Continued’ Reflecting on the findings, we discovered six types of actions or clusters of opportunities (figure 1), values tend to lead to higher levels of satisfaction of stakeholders (customers, employees, owners, each potentially leading to the enhancement of an organisational capability. Lasting organisational governments, partners etc.), to value creation and clear brands. These are: STAKEHOLDER OPPORTUNITIES, I.E. FAVOURABLE OPTIONS FOR ACTION OPPORTUNITIES, I.E. FAVOURABLE OPTIONS FOR ACTION SATISFACTION Organisational Agility or Organisational Organisational Organisational Organisational Or nova ss l Liveliness Organisational Agility or Liveliness Organisational Clarity ne na In Flexibility genuineness Innovativeness Openness ga ti en tio ni ven Op nisa sa tio ess Organisational Agility or Liveliness will ensure that Organisational Clarity is recognising what Organisational Flexibility is Organisational Genuineness Organisational Innovativeness Organisational Openness ga na organisations have and utilise the inherent potential is and what is not important in relation to the ability to adapt and is about operating in line encompasses the ability to allows for fluid interactions Or OPPORTUNITIES, l and energy of their employees. the business context. This is about good change at the rate of change with values and the innate nurture and use natural within and between the inner I.E. FAVOURABLE decision-making, sound judgement and required. wisdom and common sense creativity, develop new ideas world of the organisation OPTIONS FOR Or Flex es al clarity about core organisational issues. of mankind. and bring them to life. and its outer world. in ion ACTION ga ib s ni ilit nu at en sa ge anis tio y Influence organisational culture in a positive way by Deal with diversity (e.g. gender, disability, Establish cultures that can Allow conditions for Reward people regularly on Collaborate with local, g promoting a feeling of belonging and purpose as age) in a proactive and anticipative way na accommodate different types of intuitiveness and all levels (financially) for regional and national Or l Organisational opposed to motivating via financial rewards. (e.g. succession planning, recruitment, employees with regard to age, acknowledge playfulness innovative ideas e.g. for new businesses in the same and Clarity Include non-financial motives and values, e.g. special programs). ethnicity, health, schooling etc. in work. products and solutions or for in other industries as a community-building, in the assessment of the bottom Use specialised systems that sift through, Work within hierarchies that Allow for periods of process optimisation. counter measure to growing line. extract and organise data in order to are not rigidly defined and reflection and rest, where Focus more on how the dependence on globalised cope with the “flood of information”. that adapt according to the employees do not need to be organisation can differentiate business. Let empowered employees make their own decisions at the front line while dealing with the customer and Raise the level of surveillance of projects undertaken. directly productive. itself from competitors, e.g. Involve end-users in the value ORgANISATIONS ORgANISATIONS move responsibility down the hierarchy. workflows e.g. formal systems of Monitor key parameters of Engage people as opposed by working closely with key chain and use their design certification relating to sustainability, the business, recognise trends to simply employing them. customers and focusing on and differentiation ideas for Use business models that are driven by the benefits Figure 1: Clusters of Opportunities the products and solutions bring to the customers. carbon footprints etc. to achieve and know how to move and key competencies. products and solutions. greater transparency. adapt quickly. Build environments that Use social networks to Embrace and leverage generational differences, e.g. encourage creative thinking identify experts, share by using the knowledge and work experience of older Be aware of the speed of change within knowledge and with that acknowledge knowledge and to employees for the induction phase of new employees. the value of having time to collaborate. systems technology and be Embrace and leverage cultural differences, e.g. by prepared to upgrade and reflect and think. Design workflow systems using the empathetic skills of employees from adapt swiftly. openly and cross- feminine cultures to make customer contact more organisationally, so that they customer-friendly. Design non-linguistic systems that are open to can be adapted to the different languages and process in question in a cultural contexts. flexible way. Share talent pools and Blur internal borders collaborate with different between functions actively to companies. promote flexibility. Engage yourself more strategically in the development Help develop the knowledge and skills Understand business Use real life experiences View the world and work Develop networking skills. of your people and live values that are meaningful to the organisation requires in close modelling and identify the (from private life) to teach creatively with a beginner’s Understand how to identify them and can be easily articulated. cooperation with human resource best business model for each management and leadership mind. the right partnerships and Allow teams to elect their team leaders on a project-by- management strategically. business case. skills, aligning skills for work Introduce strategies and alliances and how to nurture and for life. MANAgERS MANAgERS project basis, rather than based on formal structures. Use self-awareness skills, knowledge Learn from successful global systems which allow and develop them. Coach people to discover their personal strengths and services and information management organisations how to cope Speak in “natural language” innovative ideas to be Look outside of your own weaknesses. systems to handle noise, information with cultural differences. instead of ”acronyms and assessed and implemented. sector or industry to learn overload and complexity. Maintain the view of a shorthand”. good practice from others. “Be a storyteller” who gives meaning to people’s work. generalist who brings Analyse people’s behaviour Understand the motivation of the “next generation” together specialist functions effectively and react swiftly and adapt to their needs accordingly. effectively. to situations that may be Know that knowledge can also be drawn from Use intuition more in order getting out of hand. engaging with each other, not just from structured to cope with the speed of systems, and use this insight on a daily basis. change and masses of data. STAKEHOLDER SATISFACTION STAKEHOLDER SATISFACTION 14 15
    • 5.0 the unexpected Future – alternative Future Worlds Despite the high probability of ‘The World the World under Cyber attack: the World in environmental Catastrophe the geriatric World: Continued’, it may not be the only face of the Terrorists may attack the internet and the and the World in economic recession: Life-enhancement technologies proliferate and future world. Unforeseen events could impact Windows™ environment, bringing work to a halt A major environmental issue hits the world and prolong life – people routinely live to 120. ‘The World Continued’ leading to other versions globally. A virus placed by terrorists blocks the alters everything, e.g. a gigantic earthquake in Managing people also means dealing with of tomorrow the ‘Unexpected Future’. internet and operating systems worldwide or Japan that destroys large parts of Tokyo and complex health issues and new daily work Organisations will also need to prepare and have diffuses through firewalls and systematically Osaka, leading the Japanese Government to challenges as the world becomes geriatric. contingency plans for such eventualities. This deletes huge quantities of business and private withdraw large amounts of funds out of the study has uncovered 16 possible surprise data, gaining access through online communities. international financial markets, which in turn scenarios, which are outlined below and sorted by Common safety measures turn out to be leads to the collapse of major stock markets possible impact. Some of these, such as the world insufficient. Hundreds of businesses lose their globally. Similarly, severe global economic Implication: This scenario will not coming under cyber attack and the world in organisational memories, intangible assets and recessions lead to the collapse of the Western happen abruptly. It will presumably environmental catastrophe, are not new and are intellectual property. economy and a halt in global business proceed at such a barely detectable rate already being addressed on a national and interactions. Companies have to cope with that organisations end up being taken by international scale. However, at any organisational severe losses in sales. surprise as they are confronted with its level there is still potential for improvement. Implication: Securing systems will need full-blown version and suddenly realise its In terms of preparation, principally introducing to reach a new dimension. Expecting the very real impact on their businesses. worst, systems will require early detectors Implication: In both scenarios, the more flexibility, openness to change and new Early preparation, however, will lessen the that send off red alerts which in turn impact on business economies will be routines into the organisational system will serve impact of this development and open up automatically initiate emergency routines. massive. Again, expecting the worst will as a basic safeguard against potential surprises, new and real possibilities for enhancing Virtual dams rise to protect data against mean making provisions for dysfunctional since there will be no way of preparing for each the talent and resource base, e.g. outside attacks. Multiple backups in or not functioning stock markets and an of them individually and in detail. In addition, a by gaining the support of the older “intellectual property banks” could be unstable global economy. Building up series of specific contingencies will be required. generations in up-skilling younger ones. business life-saving. Getting the balance tangible asset reserves outside the Organisations will require an intelligent, right between a business’s essential influence of stock markets and day-to-day thoughtful and differentiated approach openness of systems and protection in the business that will temporarily bridge and to human resource management. worst case will require some thought. stem such irregularities will be a good safety measure. 16 17
    • 5.0 the World of Knowledge as a the Brain-enhanced World: Commodity: Implication: This too is a future that Businesses routinely use microchips in order to Implication: This “Big Brother” or “The Intellectual property rights are abolished, making may subtley creep up as the world enhance the abilities of their employees, Matrix” scenario may be nearer than we knowledge and knowledge production lose their congratulates itself on being able to turn e.g. mental chips, memory enhancement chips, think. Keeping abreast of such value and become a commodity. This produces a knowledge into a sellable business knowledge chips. Some also use them to monitor developments and building up a major shift in the knowledge economy paradigm product. Building up a portfolio of and control behaviour. Neurobiologists have knowledge-base about the use and misuse as businesses struggle to define new outputs that products and services that can be made to found a way of influencing neural timing and of brain-enhancement technologies may be replace the concept of knowledge as an asset. spin off the receding knowledge economy employing time in our brains more efficiently an appropriate precaution to help foresee in a short period of time is a solution (speed the mind, slow the time) in order to and prepare for its impact on current organisations may want to think about. increase productivity. concepts of work and personal capability. the shrinking World economy: the World Digitally united: The economy of China or India collapses due to Implication: War and social unrest are Conversational user interfaces allow natural Implication: This is a positive surprise social unrest among minorities and in parallel very real threats to the stability of global communication with computers and enable that needs preparation to harvest its through pockets of war, e.g. in Iran, Pakistan, business. Even if it may be tempting to everybody to use and control technology with potential. Being on the look out for such India, China, Taiwan. The business market shrinks focus on successfully emerging markets, it language, gestures and facial expressions. Nobody new technologies, adapting to them and suddenly and dramatically as business in these will make sense to spread the risk among needs to “learn” how to use certain software any implementing them within a differentiated countries become unstable. several new markets. Serving homeland more. It is the end of the so-called digital divide human resource management programme and surrounding markets with the same between the technology literate and illiterate. will prove beneficial in the long run. The intensity will alleviate the shock should amount of up-skilling and re-skilling may such a scenario become sudden reality. be reduced markedly. the shrinking Workforce: As developing and emerging nations grow Implication: Although this is a positive economically strong in the global business arena, outcome for the migrants’ economies, it immigrants choose to stay in or go back to their will impact heavily on city infrastructures own countries. The Western world loses in the Western World. One possible and significant parts of the workforce that have been sensible safety measure is to use native employed in badly paid jobs serving the running resources and to train and re-skill the of cities. Younger people in particular are missing. unemployed locally, regionally and nationally. Additionally, reframing and re-valuing infrastructure management positively will attract the most motivated local resources, leading to other beneficial side effects in the management of city backbones. 18 1
    • 5.0 the World re-Defined: the World run by robots: The new generation refuses to engage in what Implication: This event may tiptoe into The first fully functioning robots possessing Implication: This is a scenario that may they perceive to be “meaningless jobs” on a mass the world of work or it may come as a artificial intelligence are created and put into slowly and steadily move into management scale. Work is perceived to be an expression of sudden event as longstanding hidden management positions. Robots are not necessarily reality. It will gradually increase character and not to be harnessed into employer- conflicts explode into an angry protest physical robots but software robots developed organisational dependence on systems. determined business processes. Instead, they movement against the “Establishment” from sophisticated decision support systems and Regular updates on such developments choose ethical careers and leave the “rat race” of leading to behavioural changes on a large rule-based decision-making-tools already used in and building up a knowledge base about previous generations. scale, a repetition of the student areas like fund management. the use and misuse of them in movement of the 160s. Openness to management may be an appropriate ideas and, most of all, to disagreements precaution to help prepare for their impact and sharing of power with the younger on current concepts of management. generation may prove to be essential. It is a question of harnessing future potential and talent. the World Ignored by the us: After economic hard times a totalitarian regime Implication: This is a scenario that arises in the US and dictates business rules very supports the idea of promoting business in the World ruled by employees: restrictively. Boundaries are closed in order to hold the homeland and surrounding regions. Shareholders are not automatically entitled to all Implication: This may mean a massive off everything ‘foreign’. The political agenda Building a strong customer base outside profits an organisation produces and lose power change in power structures and the way changes from ‘America first’ to ‘America only‘. the US will help counterbalance some of significantly. Instead, organisations hand over businesses are run. As in the previous the impact of such an event. power to their employees. Many organisations are scenario, this development may spread designed as “guilds”. Their mission is to support slowly or suddenly through angry protest their employees. movements. Re-thinking business through the eyes of employees and managing the religious World: power structures prudently may prove to World religions sponsor global business Implication: In this case current be helpful. corporations, thus accessing the power to drive information and in-depth knowledge of business markets and change the rules of the the issues behind such developments will game. There is a clear distinction between insiders be key. An early warning system that and outsiders and clear religious hierarchies in the scans the media for repetitive incidents the World stopped: business landscape. Religious fundamentalism in and patterns signaling the possible A major terrorist attack wipes out infrastructures Implication: There is no direct business creates a clash of civilisations on beginning of such an event will be and hubs of business travel like Heathrow and JFK precaution against such events. The more company levels. Religiously motivated “business essential. The capacity to understand, in several Western countries simultaneously. organisations conduct their businesses wars” and “business crusades” are fought. negotiate and deal with religiously Global business slows down considerably as globally and the less they use virtual motivated business partners could help business travel jams. communication possibilities, the more fend off the worst. affected they will be. Besides using communication technologies, a further safety measure will be reducing travel and conducting business locally. 20 21
    • 5.0 6.0 A Desired Future World – ‘Vision of the Future’ The World of Shrinking Work:  Having examined all the findings of the expert panel and the environmental analysis, the final stage of Organisations parcel out small pieces of jobs Implication: This is a manageable, less this study is to create a vision of the future organisation. This desired future can serve as the yardstick online, such as transcribing podcasts and labelling threatening scenario. However, by which organisations can measure the steps they are taking to prepare for the future world. photos, to people around the world (Mechanical compounded with job loss due to other Turk, amazon.com). Company jobs lose their job-killers like automation and breadth and are eradicated over time. computerisation, the loss could become noticeable. Keeping an eye on such In 2018 more organisations will be virtual. There will be a greater polarisation between the developments and not letting the number number of organisations that are virtual and large global corporations. Organisations that of jobs sink underneath a chosen threshold maintain physical premises will be run by managers who demonstrate genuine competence may be a sufficient safety measure. and create a sense of calm. The energy that is currently expended fighting fires will be channelled into more productive activities. People will feel motivated and valued. Information systems will be servants rather than masters. They will run seamlessly and The World Divided:  effortlessly in the background. They will house accurate and relevant information. Each area A group of important emerging countries that I mplication: Being locked out of the of work will have the system it needs. The systems and flexible data structures will be more have grown and strengthened through global emerging countries will definitely hurt evolutionary and will allow users to adapt, extract and integrate data in new ways. Systems business are led by, for instance, China to join to global businesses. Thinking local and will be available to all, even those outside of organisational boundaries. create their own version of the internet. They doing local business is again a good counterbalance. Securing intranets and There will be a greater fluidity of skills and movement across different environments, with keep full access to the ‘common internet’ but extranets is another sensible safety collaboration and political skills becoming critical. Managers will have the vision to create gain the power to cut off countries, organisations measure. On a governmental level, such synergy across different activities. and individuals at their own discretion. Network access becomes a competitive factor for scenarios may be worth contemplating Leaders and managers will have the foresight to identify changes in the market and use their organisations in the knowledge economy. and evaluating. Defining clear rules about exceptional wisdom and judgement to make important business decisions. They will be superb the use and misuse of the internet in role models for their teams, harnessing creativity through greater diversity and flexibility and business may help prevent or counteract gaining commitment from employees through loyalty to the organisation’s values, brand and such scenarios. reputation. Their teams will have the assurance to make decisions and the confidence to make critical adjustments to respond to external environmental changes. 22 23
    • 6.0 7.0 How Future Competent is Your Organisation? Throughout the consultations and analysis By answering these questions, you will have a Leaders and managers will be accountable, well informed and anticipating. They will act with undertaken for this study, one consistent insight clearer idea of how well positioned your humility and at the same time have drive. With highly tuned inter-personal skills, they will has emerged: although we cannot determine the organisation is to begin preparing for the avoid distractions, cope with different work principles and manage conflicts and emotion. future, we can prepare for it. Successful future challenges and opportunities the future will bring. They will know how to manage complex relationships and use their political and partnership organisations will be those that do more than Coupled with the analysis of possible futures and skills while operating across organisational boundaries. They will be risk-takers constantly embrace change. They will anticipate, identify the recommendations detailed in this study, it will challenging current practices. There will be more people spending time “thinking” as well and drive change. help you begin the process of putting your as doing. Playfulness and creativity will be encouraged to unlock new ideas and will be business on course for the kind of future you No single strategy will prepare an organisation for rewarded accordingly. want to see. the future. But, by understanding what might With the increase in remote and virtual working, managers will be able to lead from afar, happen, leaders and managers will have a better balancing out a sense of social isolation and a lack of internal relationships. There will be more chance of making sure their organisations and flexibility in working structures. People will come together in teams for specific projects, teams are effective, capable and competitive. complete them, disband and then reform as new projects arise. To prompt your thinking and to stimulate debate Knowledge management and the growth of the knowledge economy will create new business we have created a framework to allow you to models. The exploitation of knowledge and the management of intellectual property and ask the right questions, debate the topic and start content ownership will be critical. the process to ensure that your organisation is Organisations will focus on customer intimacy models to develop and market their products future proofed. and services. A more personal relationship with their employees will allow them to deliver individual benefits to meet individual needs. People’s attachment to their organisation and Questions Yes no brand will inspire and motivate them to excel. 1 Have you articulated the key questions about the future of your business? Have you uncovered the assumptions of your team and of experts about 2 the future of your business? Are you aware of the possible surprises that may shake the foundations of 3 your business? 4 Have you identified key opportunities for the future of your business? Do you have a clear vision of where you want to be with your business in 5 the short, medium and long term? Is the short, medium and long term strategy articulated 6 and implementable? 24 25
    • acknowledgements The Chartered Management Institute wishes to acknowledge the following people who shared their views and insights in the creation of this report: You can obtain a free copy of the Executive Summary of the Environmental Scanning report at www.managers.org.uk/future Kion Ahadi Head of Management Standards Centre Management Standards Centre or by emailing research@managers.org.uk. John Blythe Managing Director Coilcraft Europe Ltd The full Environmental Scanning report will be available from 1st Dame Lynne Brindley Chief Executive British Library May 2008 at a price of £200. It can be ordered by emailing Gavan Conlon Divisional Director London School of Economics research@managers.org.uk or calling 020 7421 2721. Patrick Dunne Group Communications Director i Andy Gould Managing Director AEG Project Solutions Ltd Linda Harlow Regional Operations Director Ranstad UK Ken Hills Chief Executive Telecoms Service Centres Ltd Danny Kalman HR Director Panasonic Europe Ltd Peter Kyle Chief Executive Shakespeare Globe Trust Max Landsberg Partner Heidrick & Struggles Copyright Chartered Management Institute © Richard Lapthorne Chairman Cable and Wireless First published 2008 Peter Lederer Managing Director Gleneagles Hotel Ltd Ade McCormack Founder Auridian Gillian McGrattan Director of Training Grant Thornton UK LLP Chartered Management Institute Tim Melville-Ross Chairman DTZ Holdings 2 Savoy Court, Strand, Terry Morgan Chief Executive Tube Lines London WC2R 0EZ Iain Orrock Chief Executive Vianet Group plc Professor Kai Peters CEO Ashridge Business School All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism and review, Drew Pryde Group Chairman Scottish Institute of Business Leaders no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form Tracey Reddings Executive Director Charities Aid Foundation or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior Marcus Sangster Head of Social and Land Use Research Forestry Commission permission of the publisher. Sir John Sunderland Chairman Cadbury Schweppes plc Rohit Talwar CEO FastFuture British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Jan Thomson Deputy Managing Director Carnegie Conference Centre Tricia Williamson Director CMI Enterprises A CIP catalogue record for this report is available from the British Library The Institute would also like to thank Dr Zarmina Penner, Dr Pero Mi´ c and Enno Däneke from the ci´ FutureManagementGroup AG, an internationally active group of experts on future management in business whose methodology, facilitation and analysis skills formed the cornerstone of this study. ISBN 0-8546-46-26
    • Chartered Management Institutethe leading organisation for professional managementAs the champion of management, the Chartered Management Institute shapes andsupports the managers of tomorrow. By sharing the latest insights and setting standards inmanagement development, we help to deliver results in a dynamic world.encouraging management development, improving business performanceThe Institute offers a wide range of development programmes, qualifications, informationresources, networking events and career guidance services to help managers andorganisations meet new challenges in a fast-changing environment.shaping future management practiceWith in-depth research and regular policy surveys of its 7,000 individual members and480 corporate members, the Chartered Management Institute uses its deep understandingof the key issues to improve management performance.For more information please contact:The Public Affairs DepartmentChartered Management Institute2 Savoy Court, Strand,London, WC2R 0EZTel: 020 7421 2721Fax: 020 7497 0463Email: research@managers.org.ukWebsite: www.managers.org.uk Chartered Management Institute 2 savoy Court, strand, London, WC2r 0eZ Registered charity number 1091035 Incorporated by Royal Charter ISBN 0-85946-436-9 ©Chartered Management Institute, March 2008 Reach 16060 03/08