Trading With Open Source Tools

Trading With Open Source Tools - Presentation Transcript

Trading with open source tools Chia-liang Kao clkao@clkao.org OSDC.TW 2009 Taipei

Caution

Caution There is ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY if you use any of the code or strategy mentioned in this talk.

Presenting.......

Presenting....... The OSDC Trading System

Presenting....... The OSDC Trading System using dice!

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade Long Signal

Take #1 (Random returns 0..5) SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade Long Signal

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade Long Signal

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade Short Signal

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade Enters at 08:50

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade % perl backtest.pl --start=2001-01-01 --end=2007-12-31 --timeframe 5min --money-management='FixedShares 1' OSDC1 TX

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade Taiwan Weighted Futures 1 point = nt$200 % perl backtest.pl --start=2001-01-01 --end=2007-12-31 --timeframe 5min --money-management='FixedShares 1' OSDC1 TX

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -199.1 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 201.6% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 3.3% Worst performance : -204.9 Net gain : -19910.00 Gross gain : -2590.00 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 698 Number of losses : 1034 Win. ratio : 40.3% Max consec. win : 7 Max consec. loss : 13 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.87% Average loss : -0.94% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 6.44% Biggest loss : -6.65% Profit fac : 0.92 Sum of gains : 36090.00 Sum of losses : -56000.00 Risk of ruin : 100.0

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -199.1 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 201.6% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 3.3% Worst performance : -204.9 -NT$3,982,000 Net gain : -19910.00 Gross gain : -2590.00 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 698 Number of losses : 1034 Win. ratio : 40.3% Max consec. win : 7 Max consec. loss : 13 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.87% Average loss : -0.94% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 6.44% Biggest loss : -6.65% Profit fac : 0.92 Sum of gains : 36090.00 Sum of losses : -56000.00 Risk of ruin : 100.0

Take #1 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -199.1 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 201.6% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 3.3% Worst performance : -204.9 -NT$3,982,000 Net gain : -19910.00 Gross gain : -2590.00 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 698 Number of losses : 1034 Win. ratio : 40.3% Max consec. win : 7 Max consec. loss : 13 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.87% Average loss : -0.94% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 6.44% Biggest loss : -6.65% Profit fac : 0.92 Sum of gains : 36090.00 Sum of losses : -56000.00 Risk of ruin : 100.0 DOOMED!!

Take #2 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 1.5

Take #2 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ Stop when losing 1.5% |CS:Stop:Fixed 1.5

Take #2 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 1.5 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -124.4 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 136.8% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 2.0% Worst performance : -137.5 Net gain : -12442.13 Gross gain : 4877.87 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 715 Number of losses : 1017 Win. ratio : 41.3% Max consec. win : 11 Max consec. loss : 16 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.88% Average loss : -0.83% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 5.67% Biggest loss : -1.79% Profit fac : 1.05 Sum of gains : 37037.00 Sum of losses : -49479.13 Risk of ruin : 100.0

Take #2 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 1.5 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -124.4 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 136.8% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 2.0% Worst performance : -137.5 -NT$2,488,426 Net gain : -12442.13 Gross gain : 4877.87 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 715 Number of losses : 1017 Win. ratio : 41.3% Max consec. win : 11 Max consec. loss : 16 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.88% Average loss : -0.83% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 5.67% Biggest loss : -1.79% Profit fac : 1.05 Sum of gains : 37037.00 Sum of losses : -49479.13 Risk of ruin : 100.0

Take #2 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 1.5 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -124.4 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 136.8% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 2.0% Worst performance : -137.5 -NT$2,488,426 Net gain : -12442.13 Gross gain : 4877.87 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 715 Number of losses : 1017 Win. ratio : 41.3% Max consec. win : 11 Max consec. loss : 16 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.88% Average loss : -0.83% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 5.67% Biggest loss : -1.79% Profit fac : 1.05 Sum of gains : 37037.00 Sum of losses : -49479.13 Risk of ruin : 100.0 Much better, but still negative

Take #3 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ Stop when losing 2.5% |CS:Stop:Fixed 2.5

Take #3 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 2.5 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -149.8 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 155.0% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 0.0% Worst performance : -155.0 Net gain : -14977.47 Gross gain : 2342.53 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 706 Number of losses : 1026 Win. ratio : 40.8% Max consec. win : 8 Max consec. loss : 14 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.91% Average loss : -0.87% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 6.29% Biggest loss : -2.78% Profit fac : 1.05 Sum of gains : 37749.00 Sum of losses : -52726.47 Risk of ruin : 100.0

Take #3 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 2.5 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -149.8 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 155.0% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 0.0% Worst performance : -155.0 -NT$2,995,494 Net gain : -14977.47 Gross gain : 2342.53 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 706 Number of losses : 1026 Win. ratio : 40.8% Max consec. win : 8 Max consec. loss : 14 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.91% Average loss : -0.87% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 6.29% Biggest loss : -2.78% Profit fac : 1.05 Sum of gains : 37749.00 Sum of losses : -52726.47 Risk of ruin : 100.0

Take #3 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:DayTrade \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 2.5 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : -149.8 ( nan%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 155.0% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 0.0% Worst performance : -155.0 -NT$2,995,494 Net gain : -14977.47 Gross gain : 2342.53 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 1732 Trades/Year : 247.97 Number of gains : 706 Number of losses : 1026 Win. ratio : 40.8% Max consec. win : 8 Max consec. loss : 14 Expectancy : -0.00 Average gain : 0.91% Average loss : -0.87% Avg. perf : nan% Biggest gain : 6.29% Biggest loss : -2.78% Profit fac : 1.05 Sum of gains : 37749.00 Sum of losses : -52726.47 Risk of ruin : 100.0 Not better after increase the stop threshold

Take #4 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10

Take #4 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ Stop when winning 10% |CS:CloseGain 10

Take #4 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10

Take #4 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : 29.2% ( 6.1%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 24.9% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 49.7% Worst performance : -1.2% Net gain : 2920.65 Gross gain : 3730.65 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 81 Trades/Year : 11.60 Number of gains : 32 Number of losses : 49 Win. ratio : 39.5% Max consec. win : 4 Max consec. loss : 8 Expectancy : 0.01 Average gain : 9.92% Average loss : -5.43% Avg. perf : 0.32% Biggest gain : 11.50% Biggest loss : -9.73% Profit fac : 1.83 Sum of gains : 18313.10 Sum of losses : -15392.45 Risk of ruin : 21.3%

Take #4 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : 29.2% ( 6.1%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 24.9% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 49.7% Worst performance : -1.2% NT$584,130 Net gain : 2920.65 Gross gain : 3730.65 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 81 Trades/Year : 11.60 Number of gains : 32 Number of losses : 49 Win. ratio : 39.5% Max consec. win : 4 Max consec. loss : 8 Expectancy : 0.01 Average gain : 9.92% Average loss : -5.43% Avg. perf : 0.32% Biggest gain : 11.50% Biggest loss : -9.73% Profit fac : 1.83 Sum of gains : 18313.10 Sum of losses : -15392.45 Risk of ruin : 21.3%

Take #4 SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : 29.2% ( 6.1%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 24.9% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 49.7% Worst performance : -1.2% NT$584,130 Net gain : 2920.65 Gross gain : 3730.65 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 81 Trades/Year : 11.60 PROFIT!! Number of gains : 32 Number of losses : 49 Win. ratio : 39.5% Max consec. win : 4 Max consec. loss : 8 Expectancy : 0.01 Average gain : 9.92% Average loss : -5.43% Avg. perf : 0.32% Biggest gain : 11.50% Biggest loss : -9.73% Profit fac : 1.83 Sum of gains : 18313.10 Sum of losses : -15392.45 Risk of ruin : 21.3%

Take #5 SY:Generic \\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==1 : {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2})}\\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==-1 : {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3})}\\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10

Take #5 SY:Generic \\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==1 : {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2})}\\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==-1 : {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3})}\\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ Following results from last trade |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10

Take #5 SY:Generic \\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==1 : {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2})}\\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==-1 : {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3})}\\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10

Take #5 SY:Generic \\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==1 : {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2})}\\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==-1 : {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3})}\\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : 48.4% ( 9.5%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 19.8% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 49.5% Worst performance : 0.0% Net gain : 4839.75 Gross gain : 5699.75 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 86 Trades/Year : 12.31 Number of gains : 36 Number of losses : 50 Win. ratio : 41.9% Max consec. win : 4 Max consec. loss : 8 Expectancy : 0.01 Average gain : 9.72% Average loss : -5.48% Avg. perf : 0.46% Biggest gain : 10.71% Biggest loss : -11.33% Profit fac : 1.77 Sum of gains : 20674.70 Sum of losses : -15834.95 Risk of ruin : 9.9%

Take #5 SY:Generic \\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==1 : {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2})}\\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==-1 : {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3})}\\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : 48.4% ( 9.5%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 19.8% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 49.5% Worst performance : 0.0% NT$967,950 Net gain : 4839.75 Gross gain : 5699.75 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 86 Trades/Year : 12.31 Number of gains : 36 Number of losses : 50 Win. ratio : 41.9% Max consec. win : 4 Max consec. loss : 8 Expectancy : 0.01 Average gain : 9.72% Average loss : -5.48% Avg. perf : 0.46% Biggest gain : 10.71% Biggest loss : -11.33% Profit fac : 1.77 Sum of gains : 20674.70 Sum of losses : -15834.95 Risk of ruin : 9.9%

The OSDC Trading System Got your dice?

SY:Generic \\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==1 : {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2})}\\ {I:G:Eval ( {I:LastTrade} ? {I:LastTrade}==-1 : {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3})}\\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 ----------------------------------------------------- Performance : 48.4% ( 9.5%) Buy & Hold : 77.5% ( 14.2%) () => by year MaxDrawDown : 19.8% B&H MaxDrawDown : 44.8% Best performance : 49.5% Worst performance : 0.0% Net gain : 4839.75 Gross gain : 5699.75 Trades statistics : Number of trades : 86 Trades/Year : 12.31 Number of gains : 36 Number of losses : 50 Win. ratio : 41.9% Max consec. win : 4 Max consec. loss : 8 Expectancy : 0.01 Average gain : 9.72% Average loss : -5.48% Avg. perf : 0.46% Biggest gain : 10.71% Biggest loss : -11.33% Profit fac : 1.77 Sum of gains : 20674.70 Sum of losses : -15834.95 Risk of ruin : 9.9%

Outline • trading system • analysis • backtesting • live trading

Trading System Trading system, also known as algorithmic trading, is the use of computer programs for entering trading orders with the computer algorithm deciding on certain aspects of the order such as the timing, price, quantity of order

Trading System Trading system, also known as algorithmic trading, is the use of computer programs for entering trading orders with the computer algorithm deciding on certain aspects of the order such as the timing, price, quantity of order Even with dice

Analysis • Where are all the loss coming from? • Any interesting correlation with technical indicators? • (Be curious and ask yourself questions about your results)

R is a programming language and software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It is an implementation of the S programming language with lexical scoping semantics inspired by Scheme.

R is a programming language and software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It is an implementation of the S programming language with lexical scoping semantics inspired by Scheme. to work with numbers, vectors efﬁciently

winamount <- xtabs(paste(\"profit~\", rhs, sep=\"\"), data=data[data$profit>0,]) loseamount <- xtabs(paste(\"profit~\", rhs, sep=\"\"), data=data[data$profit<=0,]); x$netgain <- winamount+loseamount; x$avgnet <- x$netgain/trade

Now if we don’t short when we are above the open price....

Now if we don’t short when we are above the open price.... Was 5699

R also supports nice plotting

Backtesting

Backtesting • If you want to write a strategy (which might not be using dice), you want to test it for historical data

Backtesting • If you want to write a strategy (which might not be using dice), you want to test it for historical data • “past performance does not guarantee future results”

Backtesting • If you want to write a strategy (which might not be using dice), you want to test it for historical data • “past performance does not guarantee future results” • But if your past performance is bad, do you dare to use the system?

Genius Trader

SY:Generic {S:G:Above {I:Random 6} 2} {S:G:Below {I:Random 6} 3} \\ |TF:Generic {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ {S:G:CrossOverUp {I:Hour} 850} \\ |TF:MaxOpenTrades 1 \\ |CS:Stop:Fixed 5 \\ |CS:CloseGain 10 • Modular • Flexible • Open source • does backtesting, charting

live trading

live trading • Data feed

live trading • Data feed • Strategy / System runner

live trading • Data feed • Strategy / System runner • Broker API

live trading • Data feed • Strategy / System runner • Broker API • Infrastructure • Monitor • Scale and redundancy!

Data feed • free: DDE from broker’s software • Win32::DDE (polling) • publish to memcached (or more appropriate message queues) • 10 lines of code • 20 lines for reconnect and robustness

Strategy runner

Strategy runner • genius trader, available for back test

Strategy runner • genius trader, available for back test • GT::Stream, accept streaming data and applies trading system to generate real time signals

Strategy runner • genius trader, available for back test • GT::Stream, accept streaming data and applies trading system to generate real time signals • available at: ????

Infrastructure • VirtualBox headless & MicroXP • memcached • gearman • nagios

Trading platforms • http://geniustrade.org/ • Trade Station (proprietary) • http://ojts.sourceforge.net/ • http://www.marketcetera.org/

Library • quantlib • ta-lib

R tutorials • Econometrics in R (Grant V. Farnsworth) • Practical Regression and Anova using R (Julian J. Faraway)

Conclusion

2009

Yesterday... I went to hotsprings in the morning..

At 11:45:20

At 11:45:20 PROFIT!!

PROFIT!!

Questions? clkao@clkao.org