The probability of a hazardeventcausingharmfulconsequences ( expectedlosses in terms of death, injuries, propertydamage,economy and environment). Definition of risk
THE DISASTER RISK EQUATION Hazard [H] X Vulnerability [V] Risk [R] = Capacity to cope [C] The risk of a disaster increases as the frequency or severity of hazards increases, people’s vulnerability increases and people’s capacity to cope (ability to cope with the consequences) is decreased.
Whatfactors tend to increaserisk perception?
Factorsincreasingrisk perception Involuntaryhazard (Chernobyl) Immediate impact ( Cyclone Nargis) Direct impact ( Sichuan earthquake) Dreaded impact ( cancer) Manyfatalities per disaster ( Katrina) Identifiable victims (Bhopal) Unfamiliarhazard ( tsunami 04) Lackbelief in authority ( young pop) Media attention Deathsgrouped in space & time (Bhuj)
Whatfactors tend to reducerisk perception?
Factors which reduce risk perception Voluntary hazard ( mountaineers) Delayed impact ( Ethiopia 03,08) Common accident ( car crash) Few fatalities per disaster ( floods UK 07) Deaths random in space & time ( stomach cancer) Statistical victims ( cigarette smokers) Controllabel hazard ( ice on motorway) Familiar hazard ( river flooding) Belief in authority ( university scientist) Little media attention. Indirect impact ( drought in Spain & impact on tourism)
Factorswhich influence an Individual’sresponses Experience Materialwellbeing– thosewho are better off have more choices. Personality – is the person a leader or a follower, a risktaker or minimiser?
Psychologicaldenial of the risk Many people living in hazardprone areas, the riskmanybeknown and understood, but ispsychologicallysuppressedsothat the benefits of living in an area are not challenged.
5 Most Dangerous U.S. Earthquake Hot Spots BeyondCalifornia Cascadia Subduction Zone, thiscolliding land mass 50 miles offshore is capable of magnitude 9 earthquakes 30 times more powerful The 2ndlargestearthquakeeverrecordedstruckAlaska’s Prince William Sound in 64. The mag 9.2 quakekilled 128 people, most by the resulting tsunami. Geologicalenigma in Missouri, that has producedsome of the largestquakes on record for the US but has yet to befullyexplained by scientists. Running along the base of the Rocky Mountains, the 240-mile Wasatch Fault lies underneath Salt Lake City and the state’surban corridor, home to 1.6 million people. Hawaii - the islands are also susceptible to major earthquakessuch as a mag 7.9 quake in 1868 thatkilled 77 people.
Reasons people may place themselvesatrisk Hazards are unpredictable. Changingrisks – sealevelsrising, deforestationleading to more frequent flash floods. Lack of alternatives. People mayweigh up the costs and benefits. Perceptions of hazardrisks tend to beoptimistic.
Riskassessment Likelihood of harm and damage.
Map of death
Physicalexposure to hazards i.e. risk Humanvulnerability to disaster ( insecurity)
There are a number of factors why disasters are increasing:
Sources Geography for IB diploma by Nagle & Cooke Natural Hazards & Disasters by Holmes & Warn Deathmap - http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-12/map-death Five mostdangerous hot spots - http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/10/five-us-earthqu