El comercio electrónico y su impacto en la economía y las telecomunicaciones
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El comercio electrónico y su impacto en la economía y las telecomunicaciones

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El comercio electrónico y su impacto en la economía y las telecomunicaciones...

El comercio electrónico y su impacto en la economía y las telecomunicaciones
Jason Whalley - Miembro de la International Telecommunications Society, Senior Lecturer.
University of Strathclyde, Escocia

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  • 1. 6/23/2009 Outline • E-commerce: definitions & scope • E-commerce: drivers and impacts • E-commerce & telecoms: an uneasy relationship • Telecoms: fixed • Telecoms: mobile • Summary 2 1
  • 2. 6/23/2009 What is electronic commerce? • Steinauer, Wakid&Rasberry A typology of definitions (1997): Commerce conducted through the electronic exchange of Business to consumer with digitally encoded transaction information. Business-to-consumer Business-to-business • Chaffey (2009): all electronically mediated Electronic commerce infrastructure information exchanges EFT + credit cards transactions between an organisation Source: OECD (1997) Measuring electronic and its external commerce. OCDE/GD(97)185. Paris, France stakeholders. 3 There are many different forms of e-commerce A matrix of e-commerce activity Firms Consumers Non-profit Firms B2B B2C B2G Consumers C2B C2C C2G Non-profit G2B G2C G2G Source: Priessl, B. (2000) Employment effects of electronic commerce: concepts and measurement problems,paper presented to the Euro CPR. March Venice. 4 2
  • 3. 6/23/2009 Through electronic commerce, organisations can… …Enter new markets …Redefine their business processes …Improve customer service …Exploit resources located elsewhere …Develop new business models …etc 5 Potential efficiency gains for electronic transactions Completion Digital ++ Physical + Routines ++ ++/++ ++/+ Preparation Negotiations + +/++ +/+ Source: Verhoest, P., Leyten, J. & J. Whalley (1999) Costs and control in electronic commerce: a reconnaissance flight, Communications & Strategies, 2nd Quarter 6 3
  • 4. 6/23/2009 ICT contribution to labour productivity (1995-2004) Source: OECD (2008: 27) The future of the internet economy: a statistical profile, Paris, France. 7 Businesses selling/purchasing over the Internet, 2007 Source: OECD (2008: 25) The future of the internet economy: a 8 statistical profile, Paris, France. 4
  • 5. 6/23/2009 Changing value chains Intermediaries link buyers with sellers. Some have been side-stepped (dis- intermediation), whilst others have appeared (re-intermediation). LOCATE TRANSACT SUPPLY S B - manufacturers E U - advertisers - financial & - wholesalers - retailers credit services - maintenance L Y - assemblers & - clearing & - insurance cataloguers settlement - shippers & L E - testers & - POS forwarders evaluators - legal - warrantee & E R services guarantee providers R Source: Hawkins, R. (1998) Creating a Positive Environment for Electronic Commerce in Europe. SPRU: Brighton, UK 9 A more diverse and complex industrial landscape is emerging 10 5
  • 6. 6/23/2009 Value chains are being reconfigured • IP is altering the cost structure, and creating opportunities • Reconfiguration requires focus: customer relationship, innovation or infrastructure management (Hagel& Singer, 1999) Source: Li & Whalley (2002: 462) Deconstruction of the telecommunications industry: from value chain to value networks, Telecommunications Policy, Vol.26 11 Complex relationships within the new ICT ecosystem are emerging 6 symbiotic relationships in the simplified model of the new ICT • Fransman (2007) ecosystem – Divides the ICT ecosystem into: final consumers, content & applications, network operators & network element providers – Identifies six sets of relationships between these four layers – Highlights that the relationships are multi-dimensional (information, financial, product & innovation) – Places ICT within its broader context – Demonstrates the inherent instability of the ecosystem Source: Fransman (2007) Innovation in the new ICT 12 ecosystem, Communications & Strategies, 4th quarter 6
  • 7. 6/23/2009 An uneasy relationship Telecommunications infrastructure Enables Encourages development of Economic activity E-commerce requires Encourages infrastructure, but Electronic challenges how it is commerce funded 13 From a fixed to mobile telecommunications industry Source: ITU (2008: 2) Trends in telecom regulation, Geneva, Switzerland 14 7
  • 8. 6/23/2009 Broadband Labour productivity and broadband in Broadband selected EU countries (2001-2004) • Is linked to competitiveness • Gives rise to a range of socio-economic benefits (e- health, e-education etc) • With its adoption being driven by a range of factors (such as age, income, education etc) Source: OECD (2008: 27) The future of the internet economy: a statistical profile, Paris, France. 15 Broadband More a developed than developing country phenomena: A broadband gap exists Source: ITU (2008: 4) Trends in telecom regulation, Geneva, Switzerland 16 8
  • 9. 6/23/2009 What drives the numbers of broadband adopters? Source: Derived fromWhalley &Howick (2008) Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote Scotland, Journal of the Operational Research Society, available at www.palgrave-journals.com/jors 17 Next generation networks NGN • IP-based, core networks • Deliver capacity at reduced costs cf. previous technologies/network layouts • Enable bundling and service innovation • But currently there is no ‘killer application’ 18 Source: http://www.btplc.com/21CN 9
  • 10. 6/23/2009 Does speed + services = profits Source: Carter, C. (2007) Future broadband: Policy approach to Next Generation Access, OFCOM, 19 London It’s a mobile world Source: ITU (2008: 3) Trends in telecom regulation, Geneva, Switzerland 20 10
  • 11. 6/23/2009 Mobiles facilitate the exchange of information Information is at the heart of markets • Absence, uncertainty & asymmetry shape how markets develop and whether trade takes place • Mobiles can connect buyers with sellers • Mobiles save on some activities, encouraging others Source: Jagun, Heeks& Whalley (2008) The impact of mobile telephony on developing country micro-enterprises: a Nigerian case study, Information technologies and international development, Vol.4 (4) Fall/Winter 21 3 Group • A 3G ‘pure play’ new entrant – Initial ‘value added’ based strategy swiftly abandoned – Replaced by a volume and price sensitive strategy – Some data services have proved to be popular – Launched mobile Skype in 2009 22 11
  • 12. 6/23/2009 The 3 Group has experienced declining APRU… 12-month trailing average revenue per active user to 31 Dec 2008 Total Non-voice Prepaid Postpaid Blended % ARPU % of total total variance APRU cf. 31 Dec 2007 UK & £15.77 £38.91 £33.37 -14% £11.25 33.5% Ireland Italy €13.42 €43.50 €25.34 -14% €8.03 31.7% Australia A$37.04 A$69.67 A$66.54 -3% A$20.76 31.2% Sweden & SEK122.01 SEK396.77 SEK379.18 -12% SEK137.74 36.3% Denmark Austria €15.11 €34.34 €33.04 -22% €12.00 36.3% 3 Group €14.92 €43.88 €33.50 -16% €11.00 32.8% average Source: Hutchison Whampoa (2009) Annual Report 2008, available at www.hutchison-whampoa.com 23 …but it is not alone. Source: Global Mobile (2009) Despite maturing markets, certain operators succeed in increasing ARPU in 3Q08, Vol.16 (2) 24 12
  • 13. 6/23/2009 iPhone 25 …but who benefits? Operators introducing the iPhone have witnessed: Elsewhere • Increased APRU Apple • Reduced churn • Has created a lucrative but evolving business model • Increases in market share • Has created a reference product, which whilst not perfect is hard But to beat • Separating out the iPhone Application developers effects from other factors is • Some have benefited from the low cost/high volume market hard to do in practice • Lock-in through linking mobile & fixed versions of products/software 26 13
  • 14. 6/23/2009 Global average monthly residential mobile broadband price, 4Q08 Source: Global Mobile (2009) Operators adjust strategy to increase popularity of mobile broadband, Vol.16 (8) 27 Monthly fee for 1GB mobile broadband contract, 3Q08 Source: Global Mobile (2009) Operators in Western Europe differentiate on price and download limits in mobile broadband push, Vol.16 (2) 28 14
  • 15. 6/23/2009 Mobile banking Source: Coyle, D. (2007) Introduction, The transformational potential of m-transactions, Vodafone Public Policy No 6 29 Pioneers are to be found in emerging markets Well known examples include: Issues: • Which business model? • Ensuring inter-operability between systems • Shaping the regulatory and liability framework • Building and maintaining trust in and acceptance of the service/technology • Encouraging the use of micro- payments 30 15
  • 16. 6/23/2009 Summary Electronic commerce • Is associated with many socio-economic benefits • Exacerbates the existing challenges faced by telecom companies • Questions ‘traditional’ funding mechanisms used in the telecoms industry • Encourages the search for ‘killer applications’ • Highlights the uneasy (fraught) relationship between infrastructure and content 31 Contact details Dr Jason Whalley E: jason.whalley@strath.ac.uk T: +44 (0) 141 548 4546 F: +44 (0) 141 552 6686 W: www.strath.ac.uk/mansci 32 16