DRIVING EV POLICY & CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURE INSOUTH AFRICA NETWORK READINESS: IMPACT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON LONG R...
IntroductionPlug-in Electric VehiclesDeveloping a PEV distribution load forecastSome results from an eThekwini case study
PEV MarketMarket adoption of PEVsMarket Drivers  •   Operating & maintenance cost  •   Source to consumption delivery cost...
Electricity Supply MarketPotential Constraining factors  •   Constrained generation & transmission capacity  •   Escalatin...
Long range load forecasts – why?Master plans  • Network built today must serve customers    30-50 years into the future.  ...
TimingInfrastructure Planning Horizon
Case Study Objective• Develop a PEV forecast  model• Utilise existing long range  forecast• Superimpose PEV load  contribu...
PEV Forecast Model – Residential charging•   PEV market penetration - % of population•   Vehicle efficiency – kWh/km•   Cu...
PEV Market Penetration                         Source: EPRI
Energy densities for various battery chemistries           Smaller          900          800                              ...
g                    k                    /                    r                    h                    W    0        100...
PEV Utilisation Behaviour Influenced by battery capacityTravel distance distribution density 2010                         ...
Home Arrival Times
Uncontrolled Charging
Forecast Results: Uncontrolled Charging  20 Year Load Forecast   2029 Load Profile  (total network load)    (total network...
Forecast Results: Time of Use Charging  20 Year Load Forecast   2029 Load Profile  (total network load)    (total network ...
Impact on Distribution Substations                        Firm capacity exceededVoltage    Number of          substations ...
Impact on MV Network: Uncontrolled Charging         Feeder capacity  20 Year Load Forecast    2029 Load Profile  (total ne...
Impact on MV Network: ToU Charging                         •   ToU charging has                             insignificant ...
Controlled Charging
Other things to worry about•    Clustering•    Market penetration saturation•    Filling stations -> charging stations•   ...
Conclusion (based on this case study)Total distribution network level  • No cause for concern over the next 10 years  • To...
Conclusion (based on this case study)Importance of having a long range master plan  (and executing it)Long range load fore...
Thanks toeThekwini Electricityfor sharing their long range forecastand data in support of this case study.Eskom EV CareDr ...
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Driving EV Policy & Charging Infrastructure 6 & 7 November 2012 South Africa

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Pres 04 gustav brand aurecon

  1. 1. DRIVING EV POLICY & CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURE INSOUTH AFRICA NETWORK READINESS: IMPACT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON LONG RANGE DEMAND FORECASTS OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS Gustav Brand Nov 2012
  2. 2. IntroductionPlug-in Electric VehiclesDeveloping a PEV distribution load forecastSome results from an eThekwini case study
  3. 3. PEV MarketMarket adoption of PEVsMarket Drivers • Operating & maintenance cost • Source to consumption delivery cost • Imported oil dependency • Government incentives • Improvements in power electronics • Air pollution and perceived greenhouse gas reduction
  4. 4. Electricity Supply MarketPotential Constraining factors • Constrained generation & transmission capacity • Escalating energy cost • Constrained distribution capacity • Aging distribution infrastructure
  5. 5. Long range load forecasts – why?Master plans • Network built today must serve customers 30-50 years into the future. • Matching equipment to supply saturation load allows for optimum use of capital.Penalty for getting it wrong • Underestimates result in reliability problems & additional capital required to replace undersized infrastructure. • Overestimates result in poor IRR and lead to unnecessary tariff increase to fund build programme.
  6. 6. TimingInfrastructure Planning Horizon
  7. 7. Case Study Objective• Develop a PEV forecast model• Utilise existing long range forecast• Superimpose PEV load contribution on existing forecast• Assess impact on existing + planned network
  8. 8. PEV Forecast Model – Residential charging• PEV market penetration - % of population• Vehicle efficiency – kWh/km• Current and future battery charge capacity• Distance travelled – km/day• Charging • Consumer charging behaviour • Charger & battery efficiencies • Charger PF • Charging tempo
  9. 9. PEV Market Penetration Source: EPRI
  10. 10. Energy densities for various battery chemistries Smaller 900 800 Li-P,Li-ion 700 New Systems Zn/Air 600 Li-ion Wh/l 500 400 Li-Polymer Ni-MH 300 Li-Metal LFP 200 Ni-Cd Li-Titanate Emerging Technologies 100 Established Technologies Lead-Acid Lighter 100 200 300 400 500 600 Wh/kg Source: ICCNexergy
  11. 11. g k / r h W 0 100 200 300 400 500102 6001021023102410251026102710281029102 Battery Energy Density0210202302402502602702802902302
  12. 12. PEV Utilisation Behaviour Influenced by battery capacityTravel distance distribution density 2010 Travel distance distribution density 2030
  13. 13. Home Arrival Times
  14. 14. Uncontrolled Charging
  15. 15. Forecast Results: Uncontrolled Charging 20 Year Load Forecast 2029 Load Profile (total network load) (total network load)
  16. 16. Forecast Results: Time of Use Charging 20 Year Load Forecast 2029 Load Profile (total network load) (total network load)
  17. 17. Impact on Distribution Substations Firm capacity exceededVoltage Number of substations EPRI EPRI High Medium275kV 8 1 1132kV 100 7 2233kV 45 0 0Total 153 8 23
  18. 18. Impact on MV Network: Uncontrolled Charging Feeder capacity 20 Year Load Forecast 2029 Load Profile (total network load) (total network load)
  19. 19. Impact on MV Network: ToU Charging • ToU charging has insignificant effect on Feeder capacity total network load • ToU charging at MV level can be devastating 20 Year Load Forecast (total network load)
  20. 20. Controlled Charging
  21. 21. Other things to worry about• Clustering• Market penetration saturation• Filling stations -> charging stations• Workplace charging• Regeneration
  22. 22. Conclusion (based on this case study)Total distribution network level • No cause for concern over the next 10 years • ToU charging appears to restrain capacity requirements at total distribution load levelSubstations • PEV impact over 20 years seems negotiable at substation level • Provided that the utility has a master plan in place (and executes it)Point of supply • Load control, smart meters, smart tariffs
  23. 23. Conclusion (based on this case study)Importance of having a long range master plan (and executing it)Long range load forecasts •must model PEV scenario(s) •new stakeholders in automotive industry • Electricity distributors • Eskom EV Care •new stakeholders in electricity distribution • PEV industry • PEV consumers
  24. 24. Thanks toeThekwini Electricityfor sharing their long range forecastand data in support of this case study.Eskom EV CareDr Clinton Carter-Brown Amal KhatriCorporate Specialist Chief Advisor: Research &Power Delivery OperationsEskom Technology EskomTel : +27 11 655 2472 Tel +27 11 629 5170cartercg@eskom.co.za KhatriA@eskom.co.za

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