Pres 04 gustav brand aurecon
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Pres 04 gustav brand aurecon

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Driving EV Policy & Charging Infrastructure 6 & 7 November 2012 South Africa

Driving EV Policy & Charging Infrastructure 6 & 7 November 2012 South Africa

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Pres 04 gustav brand aurecon Pres 04 gustav brand aurecon Presentation Transcript

  • DRIVING EV POLICY & CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURE INSOUTH AFRICA NETWORK READINESS: IMPACT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON LONG RANGE DEMAND FORECASTS OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS Gustav Brand Nov 2012
  • IntroductionPlug-in Electric VehiclesDeveloping a PEV distribution load forecastSome results from an eThekwini case study
  • PEV MarketMarket adoption of PEVsMarket Drivers • Operating & maintenance cost • Source to consumption delivery cost • Imported oil dependency • Government incentives • Improvements in power electronics • Air pollution and perceived greenhouse gas reduction View slide
  • Electricity Supply MarketPotential Constraining factors • Constrained generation & transmission capacity • Escalating energy cost • Constrained distribution capacity • Aging distribution infrastructure View slide
  • Long range load forecasts – why?Master plans • Network built today must serve customers 30-50 years into the future. • Matching equipment to supply saturation load allows for optimum use of capital.Penalty for getting it wrong • Underestimates result in reliability problems & additional capital required to replace undersized infrastructure. • Overestimates result in poor IRR and lead to unnecessary tariff increase to fund build programme.
  • TimingInfrastructure Planning Horizon
  • Case Study Objective• Develop a PEV forecast model• Utilise existing long range forecast• Superimpose PEV load contribution on existing forecast• Assess impact on existing + planned network
  • PEV Forecast Model – Residential charging• PEV market penetration - % of population• Vehicle efficiency – kWh/km• Current and future battery charge capacity• Distance travelled – km/day• Charging • Consumer charging behaviour • Charger & battery efficiencies • Charger PF • Charging tempo
  • PEV Market Penetration Source: EPRI
  • Energy densities for various battery chemistries Smaller 900 800 Li-P,Li-ion 700 New Systems Zn/Air 600 Li-ion Wh/l 500 400 Li-Polymer Ni-MH 300 Li-Metal LFP 200 Ni-Cd Li-Titanate Emerging Technologies 100 Established Technologies Lead-Acid Lighter 100 200 300 400 500 600 Wh/kg Source: ICCNexergy
  • g k / r h W 0 100 200 300 400 500102 6001021023102410251026102710281029102 Battery Energy Density0210202302402502602702802902302
  • PEV Utilisation Behaviour Influenced by battery capacityTravel distance distribution density 2010 Travel distance distribution density 2030
  • Home Arrival Times
  • Uncontrolled Charging
  • Forecast Results: Uncontrolled Charging 20 Year Load Forecast 2029 Load Profile (total network load) (total network load)
  • Forecast Results: Time of Use Charging 20 Year Load Forecast 2029 Load Profile (total network load) (total network load)
  • Impact on Distribution Substations Firm capacity exceededVoltage Number of substations EPRI EPRI High Medium275kV 8 1 1132kV 100 7 2233kV 45 0 0Total 153 8 23
  • Impact on MV Network: Uncontrolled Charging Feeder capacity 20 Year Load Forecast 2029 Load Profile (total network load) (total network load)
  • Impact on MV Network: ToU Charging • ToU charging has insignificant effect on Feeder capacity total network load • ToU charging at MV level can be devastating 20 Year Load Forecast (total network load)
  • Controlled Charging
  • Other things to worry about• Clustering• Market penetration saturation• Filling stations -> charging stations• Workplace charging• Regeneration
  • Conclusion (based on this case study)Total distribution network level • No cause for concern over the next 10 years • ToU charging appears to restrain capacity requirements at total distribution load levelSubstations • PEV impact over 20 years seems negotiable at substation level • Provided that the utility has a master plan in place (and executes it)Point of supply • Load control, smart meters, smart tariffs
  • Conclusion (based on this case study)Importance of having a long range master plan (and executing it)Long range load forecasts •must model PEV scenario(s) •new stakeholders in automotive industry • Electricity distributors • Eskom EV Care •new stakeholders in electricity distribution • PEV industry • PEV consumers
  • Thanks toeThekwini Electricityfor sharing their long range forecastand data in support of this case study.Eskom EV CareDr Clinton Carter-Brown Amal KhatriCorporate Specialist Chief Advisor: Research &Power Delivery OperationsEskom Technology EskomTel : +27 11 655 2472 Tel +27 11 629 5170cartercg@eskom.co.za KhatriA@eskom.co.za