Arthur Goldstuck 12 May 09 The Future Is Here New Media Revolution

The future is here Publishing and new media in the broadband revolution By Arthur Goldstuck 12 May 2009

About World Wide Worx

Research

Conducts primary research into IT and telecoms, Internet, mobile technologies, technology in business strategy, and SME success factors

Key projects

Internet Access in SA

Online media, retail and banking in SA

Mobility – consumers, corporates, SMEs

SME Survey: largest annual survey of its kind

Webagility - benchmarking web sites

A story of our time

Have you heard of Clive Calder?

The Bertelsmann group has

And Sony enjoys his legacy

Born in Johannesburg, 1946

Grew up in Louis Botha Avenue

Started a Joburg record company in 1971

Moved to London in 1975, renamed it Zomba

Sold to Bertelsmann in 2002 for $1.8bn

The story behind the story

The first global inter-network Shipping routes of the world, mid-19 th Century. Oxford history of the British Empire

The first instant inter-network Telegraph cable map of the world, ca 1898

The Internet in 2008 Internet connectivity map of the world, ca 2008. Courtesy Telegeography

Please sir, may we have some broadband?

Broadband culture taking hold Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

= the death of dial-up Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

The next picture? Courtesy Steve Song, Many Possibilities Africa ‘s undersea cables in 2011 – maybe

The cables ARE coming Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

Exponential bandwidth increase Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

Four drivers of growth

Undersea cables : revolution in access and capacity

New licenses : Names like Screamer and ECN emerge from under the radar

SME embrace of broadband : each SME connects from 1 to 20 additional office staff

Cellphone connectivity : but not as significant as the media hype suggests

SMEs move to broadband SME Survey2008, World Wide Worx

The Cellular base

One SIM card for every South African

Three phones for every 4 South Africans

A million accidental Internet users

Media hype:10-m cellular Internet users

(Don’t confuse data with Internet)

And 10-million South Africans on Mxit

The cellular Internet emerges Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

We can finally see the long-term trends emerge

Strong growth for next 5 yrs Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

A powerful Internet economy Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

Ain’t we great?

A connected world Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

An unconnected continent Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx

The blackboard blogger of Monrovia Alfred Sirleaf’s news hut Pic courtesy AfriGadget

Online media a bright spot

SA Online ad revenue grew 27% in 2007

After growing 24% in 2006

Online ad revenue grew 32% in 2008

Expectations: 32% growth in 2009

Online Media in SA 2009, World Wide Worx

How we compare Online Media in SA 2009, World Wide Worx

Social media lives up to promise Online Media in SA 2009, World Wide Worx

The Age of the App Store Images: Gizmodo.com

The future arrived on 11 July 2008

iPhone: App Store

Blackberry: App World

Palm: App Catalog

Nokia: Ovi Store

Android: App Market

Windows Mobile: Marketplace

Samsung: UIEvolution

Developers keep 70-80% of pricetag for card sales, but most stores require fee for listing

The future of books began in ... August 2008?

Stanza comes to iPhone App Store

Free download

1free book: HG Wells, The Time Machine

Image: Wired.com

The future of books began on ... 25 March 2009?

Research in Motion signs to Barnes & Noble

60 000 books for the Blackberry

Image: Fictionwise.com

Who is Connor Mulcahey?

13-year-old from Connecticutt

Went online on 23 April 2009

Paid a visit to the App Store

Downloaded a game called Bump

Made 1-billionth download from App Store

Inside the App Store

40 000 apps for iPhone

Average developer has 3.42 apps in store

Game developers: average 2.3 apps

eBook vendors: average 18 apps

Growth in productivity apps 3 months: 58%

Growth in eBooks 3 months: 285%

– ReadWriteWeb, 1 May 2009

$1-billion total sales after 9 months – O’Reilly.com

Source: ReadWriteWeb

The future began on ... 3 March 2009?

Amazon releases Kindle for iPhone

240 000 Kindle e-books available for iPhone

But iPhone users deeply disappointed

Search by location, not page

Touch features of phone not usable

Back to the drawing board!

(new version rolled out this week)

The future began ... last week?

6 May 2009: Mxit announces its first “instant mobile book”: Emily and the Battle of the Veil by Karen Brooks – R13,50 via your phone bill

“ As Mxit is so widely used by the youth as their preferred communication tool, we hope to encourage the youth to develop a love of reading. We will, therefore, look to provide our users with more titles in the future.” - Juan du Toit, international marketing manager

Or maybe not ...

6 May 2009: Amazon announced the Kindle DX – at $489!

For text books and periodicals

Half the cost of normal text book

But for 18-month license

The rental model is dead

Back to the drawing board!

Image: Amazon.com

The future has been here all along 24 000 free books for eReader, iPhone, PDA

Or maybe not ...

"This solves the problem of content, but not the problem of the small screens."

– Paul Moreton, mobile-software executive

And everyone forgets experience

Watch out for the curve

The implications, good and bad

Internet usage and activity boom of 2006-2008 will flatten in 2009, but easing of broadband limitations and international interest in 2010 will compensate

The Experience Curve means that new users will still take 5 years to be integrated, meaning that the have-nots are more than ten years away from Internet integration