Arthur Goldstuck 12 May 09 The Future Is Here New Media Revolution


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The future is here, A new media overview and a look at international publishers

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Arthur Goldstuck 12 May 09 The Future Is Here New Media Revolution

  1. 1. The future is here Publishing and new media in the broadband revolution By Arthur Goldstuck 12 May 2009
  2. 2. About World Wide Worx <ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Conducts primary research into IT and telecoms, Internet, mobile technologies, technology in business strategy, and SME success factors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet Access in SA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Online media, retail and banking in SA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobility – consumers, corporates, SMEs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SME Survey: largest annual survey of its kind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Webagility - benchmarking web sites </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. A story of our time <ul><ul><li>Have you heard of Clive Calder? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Bertelsmann group has </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And Sony enjoys his legacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Born in Johannesburg, 1946 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grew up in Louis Botha Avenue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Started a Joburg record company in 1971 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Moved to London in 1975, renamed it Zomba </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sold to Bertelsmann in 2002 for $1.8bn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The story behind the story </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. The first global inter-network Shipping routes of the world, mid-19 th Century. Oxford history of the British Empire
  5. 5. The first instant inter-network Telegraph cable map of the world, ca 1898
  6. 6. The Internet in 2008 Internet connectivity map of the world, ca 2008. Courtesy Telegeography
  7. 7. Please sir, may we have some broadband?
  8. 8. Broadband culture taking hold Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  9. 9. = the death of dial-up Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  10. 10. The next picture? Courtesy Steve Song, Many Possibilities Africa ‘s undersea cables in 2011 – maybe
  11. 11. The cables ARE coming Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  12. 12. Exponential bandwidth increase Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  13. 13. Four drivers of growth <ul><li>Undersea cables : revolution in access and capacity </li></ul><ul><li>New licenses : Names like Screamer and ECN emerge from under the radar </li></ul><ul><li>SME embrace of broadband : each SME connects from 1 to 20 additional office staff </li></ul><ul><li>Cellphone connectivity : but not as significant as the media hype suggests </li></ul>
  14. 14. SMEs move to broadband SME Survey2008, World Wide Worx
  15. 15. The Cellular base <ul><li>One SIM card for every South African </li></ul><ul><li>Three phones for every 4 South Africans </li></ul><ul><li>A million accidental Internet users </li></ul><ul><li>Media hype:10-m cellular Internet users </li></ul><ul><li>(Don’t confuse data with Internet) </li></ul><ul><li>And 10-million South Africans on Mxit </li></ul>
  16. 16. The cellular Internet emerges Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  17. 17. We can finally see the long-term trends emerge
  18. 18. Strong growth for next 5 yrs Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  19. 19. A powerful Internet economy Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  20. 20. Ain’t we great?
  21. 21. A connected world Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  22. 22. An unconnected continent Internet Access in SA 2008, World Wide Worx
  23. 23. The blackboard blogger of Monrovia Alfred Sirleaf’s news hut Pic courtesy AfriGadget
  24. 24. Online media a bright spot <ul><li>SA Online ad revenue grew 27% in 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>After growing 24% in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Online ad revenue grew 32% in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Expectations: 32% growth in 2009 </li></ul>
  25. 25. Online Media in SA 2009, World Wide Worx
  26. 26. How we compare Online Media in SA 2009, World Wide Worx
  27. 27. Social media lives up to promise Online Media in SA 2009, World Wide Worx
  28. 28. The Age of the App Store Images:
  29. 29. The future arrived on 11 July 2008 <ul><li>iPhone: App Store </li></ul><ul><li>Blackberry: App World </li></ul><ul><li>Palm: App Catalog </li></ul><ul><li>Nokia: Ovi Store </li></ul><ul><li>Android: App Market </li></ul><ul><li>Windows Mobile: Marketplace </li></ul><ul><li>Samsung: UIEvolution </li></ul><ul><li>Developers keep 70-80% of pricetag for card sales, but most stores require fee for listing </li></ul>
  30. 30. The future of books began in ... August 2008? <ul><li>Stanza comes to iPhone App Store </li></ul><ul><li>Free download </li></ul><ul><li>1free book: HG Wells, The Time Machine </li></ul>Image:
  31. 31. The future of books began on ... 25 March 2009? <ul><li>Research in Motion signs to Barnes & Noble </li></ul><ul><li>60 000 books for the Blackberry </li></ul>Image:
  32. 32. Who is Connor Mulcahey? <ul><li>13-year-old from Connecticutt </li></ul><ul><li>Went online on 23 April 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Paid a visit to the App Store </li></ul><ul><li>Downloaded a game called Bump </li></ul><ul><li>Made 1-billionth download from App Store </li></ul>
  33. 33. Inside the App Store <ul><li>40 000 apps for iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>Average developer has 3.42 apps in store </li></ul><ul><li>Game developers: average 2.3 apps </li></ul><ul><li>eBook vendors: average 18 apps </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in productivity apps 3 months: 58% </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in eBooks 3 months: 285% </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>– ReadWriteWeb, 1 May 2009 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>$1-billion total sales after 9 months – O’ </li></ul>
  34. 34. Source: ReadWriteWeb
  35. 35. The future began on ... 3 March 2009? <ul><li>Amazon releases Kindle for iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>240 000 Kindle e-books available for iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>But iPhone users deeply disappointed </li></ul><ul><li>Search by location, not page </li></ul><ul><li>Touch features of phone not usable </li></ul><ul><li>Back to the drawing board! </li></ul><ul><li>(new version rolled out this week) </li></ul>
  36. 36. The future began ... last week? <ul><li>6 May 2009: Mxit announces its first “instant mobile book”: Emily and the Battle of the Veil by Karen Brooks – R13,50 via your phone bill </li></ul><ul><li>“ As Mxit is so widely used by the youth as their preferred communication tool, we hope to encourage the youth to develop a love of reading. We will, therefore, look to provide our users with more titles in the future.” - Juan du Toit, international marketing manager </li></ul>
  37. 37. Or maybe not ... <ul><li>6 May 2009: Amazon announced the Kindle DX – at $489! </li></ul><ul><li>For text books and periodicals </li></ul><ul><li>Half the cost of normal text book </li></ul><ul><li>But for 18-month license </li></ul><ul><li>The rental model is dead </li></ul><ul><li>Back to the drawing board! </li></ul>Image:
  38. 38. The future has been here all along 24 000 free books for eReader, iPhone, PDA
  39. 39. Or maybe not ... <ul><li>&quot;This solves the problem of content, but not the problem of the small screens.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>– Paul Moreton, mobile-software executive </li></ul>
  40. 40. And everyone forgets experience
  41. 42. Watch out for the curve
  42. 43. The implications, good and bad <ul><li>Internet usage and activity boom of 2006-2008 will flatten in 2009, but easing of broadband limitations and international interest in 2010 will compensate </li></ul><ul><li>The Experience Curve means that new users will still take 5 years to be integrated, meaning that the have-nots are more than ten years away from Internet integration </li></ul><ul><li>User engagement of those already connected will intensify ... and intensify </li></ul>
  43. 44. Speed, speed, and ... don’t speed <ul><li>Fibre to the home – a residential reality </li></ul><ul><li>True video-conferencing – home and work </li></ul><ul><li>Real-time speed monitoring – in your car </li></ul><ul><li>Cash will cost – towards a smartcard society </li></ul><ul><li>Content will be free – free from platform, that is </li></ul>
  44. 45. Thank you <ul><li>Arthur Goldstuck (011) 7827003 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: art2gee </li></ul><ul><li>Business strategy blog </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>