Weather, Climate, & Stream Volumes

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Ray Nickless, of National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, presents weather, climate, and stream volumes for the Clark Fork River Basin Water Summary 2012 & Water Outlook 2013 on October 23, 2012.

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Weather, Climate, & Stream Volumes

  1. 1. Clark Fork River BasinWater Year Review 2012 & Outlook 2013 by Ray Nickless Service Hydrologist – Missoula, MT ray.nickless@noaa.gov Lolo Pass Visitor Center – “La Nina” Winter 2011 Forest Fires Summer 2012
  2. 2. Overview• Weather Pattern & Climate (Water Year 2012)• Streamflow volumes (Water Year 2012)• Weather Outlook (Water year 2013)
  3. 3. Weather Pattern Water Year 2012
  4. 4. La Nina - Measured 2011-201270 Ocean Buoys Weather Balloons
  5. 5. La Nina 2011 – 2012 (Wintertime Pattern)
  6. 6. Snowpack La Nina Years (Western Montana)
  7. 7. Precipitation & Temperature 2012 - Water year
  8. 8. Precipitation 2012 – Water YearOctober 2011 through September 2012
  9. 9. New Record Kalispell
  10. 10. Tied Record Missoula41 days without precipitation
  11. 11. Dry ButteEntire 2012 water year 68% of ave.
  12. 12. New Record Pierce, ID87 days without precipitation
  13. 13. New Record Elk City, ID32 days without precipitation
  14. 14. Temperatures (Warm)Departure from Average Temperature October 2011 through September 2012
  15. 15. DroughtLack of precipitation and warmer temperatures
  16. 16. Water Supply for Water Year 2012 (A look back)
  17. 17. Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012 er Blackfoot Riv 117% of ave. f av ver % o t Ri e. 107 erroo Cl ar 11 k F t 2% ork Bit of Ri av ver e.
  18. 18. Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012 N or th Fo 8 rk % 12 Fl of at av he e. ad R iv er M id dl e F 12 ork 4 F Flathead River % la of the 127 % of ave. av ad e. R Hungry Horse Inflow iv er 126 % of ave.
  19. 19. Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012 Ko o 14 tena 4% i R Libby Dam Inflow of iver ave 143% of ave. .
  20. 20. Precipitation - Temperature Water Supply Forecasts 2013 -Water year
  21. 21. Weather Forecast Yesterday
  22. 22. Weather Forecast This Week Missoula Snowbowl (Ski Area)
  23. 23. Weather Outlook End of October through November 1stTemperature Precipitation
  24. 24. El Nino - Watch
  25. 25. November-December-January Weather OutlookTemperature Precipitation
  26. 26. January-February-March Weather OutlookTemperature Precipitation
  27. 27. El Nino & Water Supply Forecasts
  28. 28. USGS Streamflow & Annual Departure from mean No rth For kF lath ead Riv er M id dl e Fo rk Fl at he ad Ri ve r
  29. 29. Middle Fork Flathead River 19 El Nino years since 1950 & 12 of 19 produced low flows or 63% of time low flows El Nino years El Nino Years El Nino Years
  30. 30. USGS Streamflow & Annual Departure from mean er Blackfoot Riv er Riv oot terr Cl ar Bit k Fo rk Ri ve r
  31. 31. Blackfoot River 19 El Nino years since 1950 & 13 of 19 produced low flows or 68% of time low flows El Nino years El Nino Years El Nino Years
  32. 32. Conclusions– Water Year 2012 • La Nina produced average to above average snowpack in most western MT & north central ID. • Average to above average water supply. • Dry summer.– Water Year 2013 • If El Nino develops (drier winter possible). • If El Nino does not develop (drier, wetter, or average).

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