Weather, Climate, & Stream Volumes

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Ray Nickless, of National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, presents weather, climate, and stream volumes for the Clark Fork River Basin Water Summary 2012 & Water Outlook 2013 on October 23, …

Ray Nickless, of National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, presents weather, climate, and stream volumes for the Clark Fork River Basin Water Summary 2012 & Water Outlook 2013 on October 23, 2012.

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  • 1. Clark Fork River BasinWater Year Review 2012 & Outlook 2013 by Ray Nickless Service Hydrologist – Missoula, MT ray.nickless@noaa.gov Lolo Pass Visitor Center – “La Nina” Winter 2011 Forest Fires Summer 2012
  • 2. Overview• Weather Pattern & Climate (Water Year 2012)• Streamflow volumes (Water Year 2012)• Weather Outlook (Water year 2013)
  • 3. Weather Pattern Water Year 2012
  • 4. La Nina - Measured 2011-201270 Ocean Buoys Weather Balloons
  • 5. La Nina 2011 – 2012 (Wintertime Pattern)
  • 6. Snowpack La Nina Years (Western Montana)
  • 7. Precipitation & Temperature 2012 - Water year
  • 8. Precipitation 2012 – Water YearOctober 2011 through September 2012
  • 9. New Record Kalispell
  • 10. Tied Record Missoula41 days without precipitation
  • 11. Dry ButteEntire 2012 water year 68% of ave.
  • 12. New Record Pierce, ID87 days without precipitation
  • 13. New Record Elk City, ID32 days without precipitation
  • 14. Temperatures (Warm)Departure from Average Temperature October 2011 through September 2012
  • 15. DroughtLack of precipitation and warmer temperatures
  • 16. Water Supply for Water Year 2012 (A look back)
  • 17. Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012 er Blackfoot Riv 117% of ave. f av ver % o t Ri e. 107 erroo Cl ar 11 k F t 2% ork Bit of Ri av ver e.
  • 18. Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012 N or th Fo 8 rk % 12 Fl of at av he e. ad R iv er M id dl e F 12 ork 4 F Flathead River % la of the 127 % of ave. av ad e. R Hungry Horse Inflow iv er 126 % of ave.
  • 19. Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012 Ko o 14 tena 4% i R Libby Dam Inflow of iver ave 143% of ave. .
  • 20. Precipitation - Temperature Water Supply Forecasts 2013 -Water year
  • 21. Weather Forecast Yesterday
  • 22. Weather Forecast This Week Missoula Snowbowl (Ski Area)
  • 23. Weather Outlook End of October through November 1stTemperature Precipitation
  • 24. El Nino - Watch
  • 25. November-December-January Weather OutlookTemperature Precipitation
  • 26. January-February-March Weather OutlookTemperature Precipitation
  • 27. El Nino & Water Supply Forecasts
  • 28. USGS Streamflow & Annual Departure from mean No rth For kF lath ead Riv er M id dl e Fo rk Fl at he ad Ri ve r
  • 29. Middle Fork Flathead River 19 El Nino years since 1950 & 12 of 19 produced low flows or 63% of time low flows El Nino years El Nino Years El Nino Years
  • 30. USGS Streamflow & Annual Departure from mean er Blackfoot Riv er Riv oot terr Cl ar Bit k Fo rk Ri ve r
  • 31. Blackfoot River 19 El Nino years since 1950 & 13 of 19 produced low flows or 68% of time low flows El Nino years El Nino Years El Nino Years
  • 32. Conclusions– Water Year 2012 • La Nina produced average to above average snowpack in most western MT & north central ID. • Average to above average water supply. • Dry summer.– Water Year 2013 • If El Nino develops (drier winter possible). • If El Nino does not develop (drier, wetter, or average).