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David Smith Smart Cities - Birmingham

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David's presentation given to the Digital Birmingham Stakeholders Meeting on Thursday 26th January at Fazeley Studios

David's presentation given to the Digital Birmingham Stakeholders Meeting on Thursday 26th January at Fazeley Studios

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  • Youtube 2 billion views a day
    First browser – Mosaic – launched 1993 (17 years ago)
    Amazon and Ebay 15 years ago (1995)
    Google launched 12 years ago
    Cloud computing mainstream 2009
  • Not just doing things differently
    But doing different things
  • Now, just imagine faster mobile Internet access at a much lower cost (or even free, courtesy of Google and O3B); much cheaper, yet more powerful and smart, mobile devices, cost (or even free, courtesy of Google and O3B); much cheaper, yet more powerful and smart, mobile devices,
  • The Mobile Network in 2015
    Global mobile data traffic will increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015. Mobile data traffic will grow at a
    compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 92 percent from 2010 to 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015.
    There will be nearly one mobile device per capita by 2015. There will be over 7.1 billion mobile-connected
    devices, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, in 2015—approximately equal to the world’s population
    in 2015 (7.2 billion).
    Mobile network connection speeds will increase 10-fold by 2015. The average mobile network connection speed
    (215 kbps in 2010) will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent, and will exceed 2.2 megabits per
    second (Mbps) in 2015.
    Two-thirds of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2015. Mobile video will more than double every
    year between 2010 and 2015. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category measured within
    the Cisco VNI forecast at this time.
    Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010.
    The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2015 (248 petabytes per month) will be approximately
    equal to the total amount of global mobile data traffic in 2010 (242 petabytes per month). The same will be true of
    M2M traffic, which will reach 295 petabytes per month in 2015. White Paper
    © 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public Information. Page 3 of 27
    The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010
    average of 79 MB per month. Aggregate smartphone traffic in 2015 will be 47 times greater than it is today, with
    a CAGR of 116 percent.
    By 2015, over 800 million terabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to the fixed network by means
    of dual-mode devices and femtocells. Without dual-mode and femtocell offload of smartphone and tablet traffic,
    total mobile data traffic would reach 7.1 exabytes per month in 2015, growing at a CAGR of 95 percent.
    The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 129 percent
    CAGR, followed by Latin America at 111 percent and Central and Eastern Europe at 102 percent.
    There will be 788 million mobile-only Internet users by 2015. The mobile-only Internet population will grow 56-
    fold from 14 million at the end of 2010 to 788 million by the end of 2015
  • 2012+/- 2 years
  • When Cisco cancelled meeting travel budgets it saved $20 million in air travel
    334,000 hours saved in reduced travel time
    211 million air miles saved
    Savings in carbon emissions: 84,400 tonnes
  • George Siemens claims that ‘…the internet of things will likely have a greater impact on humanity than social media.’ His reasoning is that whilst social media is an ‘…overlay of socialization on top of our physical worlds,’ that
    It is important to stress that the internet of things is not just a synchronization of appliances and processes with the internet in a one way linear relationship. Indeed, as more and more objects are being embedded with communicative equipment and sensors, the conversation will be as much a two-way route between objects, using the internet as a medium.
    . In 2009 the Internet had around 575 million host computers. There will be 22 billion web-connected devices in the world by 2020, according to a 2010 study, with internet connectivity set to surge. At the moment, the number of web-enabled devices resides at around 5 billion. http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/010410-outlook-vision-predictions.html?page=1
    http://www.techradar.com/news/internet/22-billion-web-connected-devices-by-2020--710843
    Network effect theory:
    They get better as more people use them.
    The Moore's Law of mobile gadgets.
    We'll be overrun with social and location-aware apps.
    Have a smartphone, a car, and extra time? Now you can become a part-time cabdriver:
    Uber connects riders via GPS and ubiquitous networks.
    Park Circa lets you turn your private driveway into a shared parking space.
    Parker pays through their smartphone. 
    Apps like these will become not just useful, but normal
  • And auditory "lenses,"
  • Martin Luther King
    Nelson Mandela
    Ghandi
    Lech Walesa
    Emily Pankhurst
    Bob Geldof
    People won’t follow a plan - the will follow a dream!
    Ironically – people don’t really need certainty, they do need inspiration!
    The consultants don’t tell you this because they cant sell you inspiration!
  • All of these books, and all of these consultancies, advocate their own methodology which, so we are told, will guarantee success.
    The problem is that none of these methodologies deal with change, they only deal with the process of change.
    That raises the question as to what do we mean when we say “change”
  • Transcript

    • 1. Global Futures & Foresight David Smith Chief executive Global Futures and Foresight © Global Futures and Foresight 2012 Integrated city – Integrated lives
    • 2. Global Futures & Foresight Smart city development • Integrated view of city governance. • Rationalise complex IT environments. • City-wide systems integration. • Engage cloud and outsourced services. • Outsource and cloud service management. • Network of solutions.
    • 3. Global Futures & Foresight Agenda • Pace of change • The journey • Integrated approach
    • 4. Global Futures & Foresight UK urban population • 70m population by 2028, up 9m in 19 years. (ONS) • Urban population rising: – 50.3m in 1990 – 53.5m in 2005 – 59.6 million by 2030 (1). • Single occupancy households to increase by 20% to 26 million by 2026. (from 2006). Source (1): UN http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005WUP_DataTables3.pdf http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1567066/We-must-act-now-to-cut-immigrant-numbers.html http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/11937%20FFF%20Retail%20Futures%20WEB%20new%20version.pdf : Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/oct/21/uk-population-growth-70-million
    • 5. Global Futures & ForesightTECHNOLOGY
    • 6. Global Futures & Foresight The Last 5-6 Years What would you have done differently if you’d seen any of this Coming? • Youtube started • Telephone becomes a PC • Touch screens • Tablets • Internet boom • Social networks • The Cloud • Google Maps • Virtual worlds • Freemium business model • PayPal turns mainstream • Ebay turns us all to e-traders • Home video conferencing • Blogs, Wikis, Tweets, Peerindex & Klout • Robotic limbs Just as much change coming in the next five years
    • 7. Global Futures & Foresight First we do things differentlyThen we do different things
    • 8. Global Futures & Foresight The Era of the Supercomputer • By 2018 supercomputers 500 times faster than the most powerful today. Source: PC World, June 2011 http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/230708/sgi_intel_plan_to_speed_up_supercomputers_500_times_by_2018.html http://www.cse.tum.de/overview/cse.html
    • 9. Global Futures & Foresight New era of mass communication • Today's Internet has 1.9 bn users. • World population is 7 bn people. • By 2020 Internet will have 5 bn users. National Science Foundation in the U.S for one predicts • Connecting 3 billion people • Mostly in emerging markets – 26% of global economic activity – Half of businesses can’t get online. – Africa – 1 internet connection/1,000 pc’s http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642 http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times the Other 3 Billion
    • 10. Global Futures & Foresight Changing engagement • 2020 - 35 zettabytes 44 times more than 2009. • 75% of data already user generated: – Forwarding a link, rating a site, commenting on a blog, twittering, sharing bookmarks, sharing your location, logging into websites, liking something on Facebook. • Everywhere we go, everything we do, every move we make: – creates click-trails, – leaves digital breadcrumbs, – produces data exhaust, and creates meta-content. Wired.com post and a related IDC study
    • 11. Global Futures & Foresight The Mobile Network - 2015 • Data traffic to increase 26-fold. • 7bn mobile-connected devices. • Speeds increase 10-fold. – Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010. – The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010. Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010–2015 – Feb 2011 http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf
    • 12. Global Futures & Foresight Engaging with technology • Speech recognition and artificial intelligence (AI) enable natural user interface: – Gesture – Speech – Look • Virtual assistants to serve as secretaries, tutors, salespeople. • Almost all routine work (TechCast) The keyboard and mouse are dead
    • 13. Global Futures & Foresight $35 Aakash Tablet Disruption
    • 14. Global Futures & Foresight 80% of executives worldwide believe that enterprise-wide collaboration is the key to success.
    • 15. Global Futures & Foresight Social networks • Change the way we live • Already changing social and political processes. • Change the way we work • New Management processes • Raise problems and allow those with a contribution to collaborate. • Faster and more creative solutions.
    • 16. Global Futures & Foresight Artificial Intelligence • Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with them just like humans. • e-technology will have advanced to the point where there are fewer human interactions with a more strategic focus and broader capabilities • Face recognition that identifies emotional changes. Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394 24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available
    • 17. Global Futures & Foresight Engaging through technology • Telepresence market to be worth $4.7 billion in 2014. • As organisations cut: – Travel costs – Carbon footprint – Increase productivity (Winter Green Research, Techcast). Source: TMC News http://www.tmcnet.com/channels/telepresence/articles/62985-telepresence-market-reach-47-billion-2014-report.htm Source: Venture Beat http://venturebeat.com/2010/03/04/virtual-events-keep-growing-and-even-comdex-makes-a-comeback-online/ Video Conferencing / Telepresence
    • 18. Global Futures & Foresight Surrounded by technology • 15bn connected devices by 2015. • Integrates physical & virtual world. • Objects sense their environment and communicate its status. • Tools to understanding complexity. • Ubiquity creates new models. Source(1): Forbes 2010 http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/20/internet-connectivity-personalization-technology-cio-network-sensors.html?boxes=Homepagechannels Source(2): eLearnSpace, 2010 http://www.elearnspace.org/blog/2010/03/19/the-internet-of-things-2/ 22 billion devices by 2020 ‘Internet of ‘things’
    • 19. Global Futures & Foresight Engaged in technology By 2019 • 3D virtual reality displays, • Embedded in glasses and contact lenses. • Primary interfaces for communication with other persons, computers, the Web, and virtual reality. (Kurzweil) • Linking our senses directly with other people’s senses or with machines.
    • 20. Global Futures & Foresight Convergence of Online & Offline
    • 21. Global Futures & Foresight SMART CITY LIVING
    • 22. Global Futures & Foresight City living – use, don’t own The default mindset of the digital generation
    • 23. Global Futures & Foresight A life in context • Where am I? • What am I doing? • Who’s around me? • What would help me? – Where – What – Who – How
    • 24. Global Futures & Foresight Smart (integrated) living • Diary • Household systems • Weather • Transportation services • Smart grids • Office (if you go to one at all) • Environmental services • Retail • Entertainment Identity Payments
    • 25. Global Futures & Foresight Integration • Vision • Strategy • Implementation • Systems • Infrastructure • Data
    • 26. Global Futures & ForesightCITY WIDE INTEGRATION
    • 27. Global Futures & Foresight OrganisationIndividualCommercial Strategy Operational Purpose VisionResources Foresight CultureBehaviourCycles ValuesCommsCapability Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012 Next
    • 28. Global Futures & Foresight Individual Strategy Vision Operational ResourcesPurpose Foresight CultureBehaviourCycles ValuesCommsCapability Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012 Next Commercial Organisation
    • 29. Global Futures & Foresight “Organize” for … performance & customer satisfaction. “Disorganize” for … renewal & innovation.
    • 30. Global Futures & Foresight Successful leaders of change
    • 31. Global Futures & Foresight
    • 32. Global Futures & Foresight If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead  +44 7932 408901 david.smith@thegff.com Imagine it Thank you www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith www.thegff.com davidsmithgff New report Full copy available from www.thegff.com gfftv Indicator at: elm.nextvisioningip.com

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