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Measuring Offline Impact of Online Marketing
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Presented at both Ad-Tech NYC 2011 and the Internet Summit 2011, Resolution Media's Jeff Campbell took the audience through the importance of measuring the impact of your online marketing through ...

Presented at both Ad-Tech NYC 2011 and the Internet Summit 2011, Resolution Media's Jeff Campbell took the audience through the importance of measuring the impact of your online marketing through offline/brick & mortar locations. Presentation covers media attribution, media mix modeling, and clicks to brick online to offline measurement.

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  • Media consumption and research have shifted online, but majority of all sales still occur offlineForrester Research projected online retail revenues to be $173 billion in 2010, growing over 40% to reach nearly $250 billion by 2014. Yet for all the projected growth, the online channel will account for just 8% of total retail sales revenue. Undervalues online.
  • New attribution models are necessary to measure total business impact (online + offline) of digital advertising.Current model rewards Search, punishes Email, Display, SocialCentralize online tracking with WA to reduce duplication
  • Forrester: 48% of all retail sales are either online purchases or Web-influenced purchases. This trend will continue, and by 2014, this number is forecasted to increase to 53%, or $1.4 trillionSeparate .com groups with e-comm goals in favor of total company…including online marketing budgets/goalsMobile & Social media forcing a lot of integration – PR, Print (tablets)
  • Surveys (Eg. Foresee, POS, panel-based) (ask buyers if they’ve visited FB page), Unique Coupons/Offers, Loyalty Programs/Email, turning on and off campaigns
  • Rewarding individual consumer touchpoints that lead to a sale vs. defining the influence of adv. mediums to drive the most salesDefining Attribution:Assign a value/credit to every marketing touchpoint before a consumer purchase -too many variables today, non-linear process, push vs. pullQuantify the true ROI and incremental sales lift of a single mediumGiven a fixed $ input, model provides an ideal mix to achieve highest outcome
  • Relationship of various marketing activities to sales through regression models.Consideration of macroeconomic factors as well (what happens to mortgage apps if the Fed drops int. rates by x%)Explain what APT Software does
  • Explain test methodology – treated/test vs. controlHeavy variance of paid search by market, by season, by product group – unlike what is seen with traditional media
  • No longer will it be ‘what are the costs of the GRPs I’m buying’ but ‘how many 1-800 # leads will that drive and what will be resulting sales’.Holding company media shops have an advantageFinal Point: media will be held more accountable to sales, will your business be ready…have you started to connect the online & offline silos?

Measuring Offline Impact of Online Marketing Presentation Transcript

  • 1. MEASURING THE OFFLINE IMPACT OF PAID SEARCH Jeff Campbell – Co-Founder & Head of Retail Resolution Media November, 2011 CJeffCampbell 1 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 2. TODAY’S SHOPPING EXPERIENCE IS ONLINE & OFFLINE Media Purchase Purchase Consumption Process Location 41% is online Non-linear 93% of sales occur offline Google Friends TV Magazines Websites Price comparison Source: Google Touchpoints Consumer Survey, *U.S. Retail Consumers, January 2009. Clicks to Bricks: The Impact of Online Pre-Shopping on Consumer Shopping Behavior, Yahoo! and comScore, 2007; Emarketer citing, data is from January 2009 2 Sterling Commerce research for which 1,017 US consumers ages 18+ were surveyed via telephone by OpinionPROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL ResearchAn Omnicom Media Group Company Corporation from January 2-4, 2009, HHI +$75k;
  • 3. ATTRIBUTION CURRENTLY STOPS AT E-COMMERCE Source: February 2009 “US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013,” Forrester Research Internet Retail Offline Influence Model, Dec 2009. 3 Conversion rates are for illustrative purposes, based on a set of Google internal aggregated results. Data are estimates and PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company should be used directionally.
  • 4. SILOS ARE COMING DOWN 4 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 5. DIRECTIONAL O2S MEASUREMENT 5 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 6. ATTRIBUTION VS. MEDIA MIX MODELS 6 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 7. MEDIA MIX MODELING METHODOLOGIES • Models built on post-effort analysis/correlation TC Rev = $7.2B TC Rev = $10B • Market Holdout Testing • Traditional A/B approach • Software chooses test markets based on store sales history 7 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 8. RETAILERS ACTIVELY TESTING O2S Test Search + content Control None v “ The 2% sales lift was impressive and successful in proving that our online advertising drives in-store sales. Online is quick, flexible and targeted advertising that must be within your advertising mix. ” -Ronnie Hodges, Director of Marketing, Pier 1 Imports 8 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 9. CASE STUDY: PIER 1 IMPORTS Paid Search Ads (Locally Targeted) 1 Overall sales lift of 2% in test markets when compared to the control markets Positive 300% return on advertising 2 investment (Pier 1 Imports received three dollars in sales for every dollar spent Online) Contextually Targeted Ads (Locally Targeted) Pier 1 Imports® 3 Additional lift of up to 5.3% in a select group of underperforming stores Amazing Deals on Fresh Fall Looks 1.4% lift in furniture category during at Pier 1‟s Fall „N Groovy Event! a five week test period noteworthy because www.Pier1.com 4 the average consideration for furniture purchases is greater than the five week test period 9 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 10. HOLDOUT TESTING IS NOT PERFECT, BUT A START • Isolates test factors/report card • Doesn’t rely on last-click • Accounts for non-test media lift/assists equally • Can drill down to message or campaign level Paid Search • Results don’t predict future; emerging media = rapid change 2.4% lift, 15:1 ROI, 38% Margin • Gain accurate multipliers for all media • Media must have geo targeting abilities Newspaper • Time to run test, limited test markets – must gain statistically 3%, 2:1, 15% significant results Radio • No B.S. awareness/recall metrics…SALES! 0.8%, 5:1, 25% • Doesn’t account for LTV/Branding though • Accounts for test market abnormalities • Software costs 10 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 11. RUNNING A TEST Determine Report &Hypothesis/KPIs active & latency Market selection Media Set-up Launch Analysis period lengths Daily budget Test market Consider seasonality Medium vs. Product Mirror normal monitoring: Start abnormalities & macroeconomic Category vs. Message campaign strong vs. playing (weather, natural activity catch-up disasters) Exposure level: Dark Pre-period, Budget Forecasting Weekly reporting vs. normal vs. high treatment, & latency End goal: Sales volume, Sales Lift %, Statistical Significance Category lifts, ROI/margin Rinse & Repeat: Build curves by medium by season by category 11 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL An Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 12. OUTLOOK/FUTURE OF ATTRIBUTION • Today • Who in your org understands statistics & econometrics? • Tomorrow • Less silo’d media shops & marketing departments • Machine-based ROI Simulators • 3-5 years • Built in to media buying portals • Measure outcomes, not inputs 12 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company
  • 13. THANKS! Jeff Campbell Co-Founder & Head of Retail JCampbell@ResolutionMedia.com CJeffCampbell 13 PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIALAn Omnicom Media Group Company