The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Honolulu Mayor Primary

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 1 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5%--In the August election, you will have the chance to vote for Honolulu Mayor. Thethree major candidates are Current Mayor Peter Carlisle, Former Acting Mayor KirkCaldwell, and Former Hawaii Governor Ben Cayetano…. If the Honolulu Mayorʼselection were held today, which candidate would you vote for?[Candidate names were rotated] Mayor Cayetano 44% Carlisle 21% Caldwell 23% Unsure 12% Total 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 2 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * US Crosstabulation% within US US Right Wrong UnsureMayor Cayetano 34% 57% 33% Carlisle 24% 19% 17% Caldwell 32% 13% 29% Unsure 10% 11% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% US * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell UnsureUS Right 35% 51% 63% 41% Wrong 58% 41% 25% 42% Unsure 7% 8% 13% 17%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 3 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Hawaii Crosstabulation% within Hawaii Hawaii Right Wrong UnsureMayor Cayetano 24% 64% 26% Carlisle 31% 12% 23% Caldwell 35% 13% 25% Unsure 10% 11% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% Hawaii * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell UnsureHawaii Right 22% 63% 64% 35% Wrong 73% 30% 28% 49% Unsure 4% 8% 8% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 4 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5%--The Honolulu Rail project is widely viewed as the major issue thatʼs driving the debatein the Honolulu Mayorʼs contest. How do you feel about all of the attention the railproject is getting? Do you think the campaign is too focused on rail, and isnʼt payingenough attention to other issues? Or do you think the rail project should be what thecampaign is most focused on? RailFocus Too much 47% Right amount 39% Unsure 14% Total 100% Mayor * RailFocus Crosstabulation % within RailFocus RailFocus Right Too much amount Unsure Mayor Cayetano 32% 64% 30% Carlisle 27% 12% 27% Caldwell 30% 16% 19% Unsure 12% 8% 25% Total 100% 100% 100% RailFocus * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Unsure RailFocus Too much 34% 59% 61% 45% Right amount 57% 23% 28% 25% Unsure 10% 18% 11% 29% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%--And do you generally support or oppose the Honolulu Rail project?" Rail Support 40% Oppose 53% Unsure 7% Total 100% Mayor * Rail Crosstabulation

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 5 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5%% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureMayor Cayetano 8% 74% 30% Carlisle 41% 6% 15% Caldwell 41% 10% 15% Unsure 9% 10% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell UnsureRail Support 8% 79% 71% 32% Oppose 87% 16% 24% 43% Unsure 5% 5% 5% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 6 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Marriage Crosstabulation% within Marriage Marriage Yes No UnsureMayor Cayetano 38% 52% 33% Carlisle 22% 19% 25% Caldwell 28% 19% 19% Unsure 12% 9% 23%Total 100% 100% 100% Marriage * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell UnsureMarriage Yes 37% 45% 51% 43% No 55% 42% 39% 36% Unsure 8% 13% 9% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 7 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Economy Crosstabulation% within Economy Economy Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi UnsureMayor Cayetano 43% 47% 39% Carlisle 21% 21% 20% Caldwell 27% 22% 16% Unsure 10% 10% 25%Total 100% 100% 100% Economy * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell UnsureEconomy Jobs/Economy 39% 40% 46% 33% Debt/SS/Medi 51% 49% 45% 43% Unsure 10% 11% 8% 24%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 8 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly UnsureMayor Cayetano 36% 34% 53% 66% 22% Carlisle 24% 21% 16% 18% 6% Caldwell 32% 23% 22% 7% 17% Unsure 8% 22% 9% 9% 56%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell UnsureObama Approve strongly 38% 54% 66% 30% Approve somewhat 14% 18% 18% 33% Disapprove somewhat 10% 6% 8% 6% Disapprove strongly 37% 22% 7% 19% Unsure 1% 1% 2% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 9 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed Obama_Condensed Approve Disapprove UnsureMayor Cayetano 36% 63% 22% Carlisle 23% 17% 6% Caldwell 30% 10% 17% Unsure 11% 9% 56%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureMayor Cayetano 31% 52% 32% Carlisle 27% 17% 26% Caldwell 35% 22% 15% Unsure 7% 9% 26%Total 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 10 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Congressional_District Crosstabulation% within Congressional_District Congressional_District 1 2Mayor Cayetano 43% 49% Carlisle 22% 19% Caldwell 24% 19% Unsure 11% 13%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleMayor Cayetano 46% 42% Carlisle 22% 21% Caldwell 24% 22% Unsure 8% 15%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Mayor Cayetano 64% 37% 43% 39% 47% Carlisle 10% 15% 20% 24% 22% Caldwell 21% 29% 17% 25% 22% Unsure 5% 19% 19% 12% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 11 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative UnsureMayor Cayetano 38% 38% 58% 46% Carlisle 18% 25% 17% 22% Caldwell 29% 26% 16% 19% Unsure 14% 11% 9% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * PartyID Crosstabulation% within PartyID PartyID Democrat Republican Independent UnsureMayor Cayetano 33% 52% 59% 37% Carlisle 24% 22% 16% 17% Caldwell 33% 15% 12% 22% Unsure 10% 12% 13% 24%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 12 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Other/ Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic MixedMayor Cayetano 45% 35% 56% 47% 51% 30% 44% Carlisle 22% 24% 17% 16% 23% 50% 16% Caldwell 21% 30% 13% 28% 17% 20% 28% Unsure 12% 12% 14% 10% 9% 12%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High School College Graduate No Degree Degree Degree DegreeMayor Cayetano 30% 46% 48% 38% Carlisle 13% 15% 22% 27% Caldwell 37% 25% 20% 24% Unsure 20% 14% 10% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 13 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion Religion Other Evangelic Christia Buddhis Catholic al Mormon n t Shinto Jewish Other NoneMayor Cayetano 42% 49% 50% 49% 37% 17% 40% 50% 43% Carlisle 18% 21% 21% 23% 24% 17% 40% 13% 23% Caldwell 27% 13% 8% 23% 32% 67% 20% 16% 22% Unsure 12% 17% 21% 6% 8% 21% 12%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoMayor Cayetano 48% 44% Carlisle 17% 22% Caldwell 25% 23% Unsure 10% 11%Total 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 14 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * Annual Household Income Crosstabulation% within Annual Household Income Annual Household Income $50,000 or $50,000- $100,000 less $100,000 or MoreMayor Cayetano 45% 48% 41% Carlisle 18% 20% 25% Caldwell 20% 24% 26% Unsure 17% 7% 8%Total 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 15 799 Likely Honolulu (Oahu) Mayoral Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.5% Mayor * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureMayor Cayetano 31% 52% 32% Carlisle 27% 17% 26% Caldwell 35% 22% 15% Unsure 7% 9% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureMayor Cayetano 58% 52% 33% 62% 53% Carlisle 8% 20% 23% 8% 21% Caldwell 17% 17% 38% 15% 5% Unsure 17% 11% 6% 15% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Honolulu Mayor Primary

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