Hannemann maintains solid lead in congressional race
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Hannemann maintains solid lead in congressional race

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Mufi Hannemann released internal polling numbers showing he still holds a large lead over Tulsi Gabbard in the race for Congress.

Mufi Hannemann released internal polling numbers showing he still holds a large lead over Tulsi Gabbard in the race for Congress.

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  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
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  • This poll is slanted. Civil Beat's poll had a larger sampling size and they repeated the poll to make sure it was correct.
    Of course they are scrambling to try to show that Hannemann can still win. But even from their own polling it clearly shows that Tulsi Gabbard has the momentum in this race.
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Hannemann maintains solid lead in congressional race Hannemann maintains solid lead in congressional race Document Transcript

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  • 2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT STUDY
  • BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGYA total of 407 interviews were conducted among registered voters in the U.S. 2ndCongressional District beginning on June 14, 2012 and ending on June 16, 2012. 173interviews were conducted among Oahu 2nd Congressional District voters while 108were done on the Big Island. 88 surveys were conducted among voters in Maui Countywhile Kauai accounted for 38 surveys.The margin of error for a sample of this size (n=407) is +/- 4.90 percentage points with a95% confidence level.The survey respondents for this study were selected from a sample derived from alisting purchased from Labels & Lists (formerly Voter Contact) augmented by QMark’sRandom Digit Dialing software. 51% of the surveys were conducted among landlinephones while the remaining 49% were conducted among wireless phone users.QMark Research’s professional interviewers were used to conduct this survey. Allinterviews were conducted from QMark’s in-house calling center where up to threeattempts were made to reach a voter at each of the telephone numbers in the sample.The call attempts included a weeknight, and weekend day and evening to ensure wereached 2nd district voters that would represent a valid cross-section of the district’svoters.Each respondent was asked screening questions to ensure they were a currentregistered voter in the 2nd congressional district and that they intended to vote in theupcoming primary.The demographics of the voters whose opinions are shown in the data of this reportreplicate as much as possible the actual demographics of 2nd district voters forgeographic distribution, gender, age and ethnicity. A table showing this respondentprofile is within the report. A complete questionnaire is included in the Appendix to thisdocument.
  • DEMOCRATIC PRIMARYRegistered voters from the 2nd Congressional District were asked if the DemocraticPrimary were held today and the candidates were Mufi Hannemann, Tulsi Gabbard,Esther Kiaaina, Bob Marx, Miles Shiratori and Rafael del Castillo whom would theylikely support.The table below breaks down the results for voters who indicated they will likely selectthe democratic ballot in the upcoming primary election or are undecided which ballotthey will select. June 2012Hannemann 42%Gabbard 26%Marx 8%Kiaaina 2%del Castillo 0%Shiratori 0%Don’t know 17%Refused 3%BASE 312If the Primary Election for the 2nd Congressional district were held today MufiHannemann would lead the race with 42% of the vote. Tulsi Gabbard trails by 16-percentage points garnering 26% of the vote. None of the other competitors receivessupport from over 10% of this voting segment.The table below breaks down the results from above by geography, gender, andideology. SAMPLE GENDER IDEOLOGY Oahu N.I. Male Female Dem Indep RepHannemann 45% 40% 38% 46% 48% 37% 33%Gabbard 33% 20% 31% 22% 22% 33% 28%Marx 6% 11% 10% 6% 9% 5% 26%Kiaaina 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% -del Castillo - 0% 0% - 0% - -Shiratori 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -Don’t know 11% 22% 16% 18% 3% 5% -Refused 3% 4% 1% 6% 15% 18% 13%BASE 134 178 157 155 192 91 11
  • Degree of SupportIn this section of the study supporters of each candidate were asked to rate the degreeto which they backed their candidate. Hannemann Gabbard Other n=130 n=80 n=39Strongly support 44% 37% 32%Somewhat support 32% 32% 35%Could change 25% 29% 29%Don’t know - 3% 4%The support for Mufi Hannemann is slightly stronger at this point compared to TulsiGabbard though there is definite room for movement from now till the election.Core VotersIn this section of the study we examine the results from a slightly different perspective.The table below highlights the race filtering the results to show only those who said theywill select the Democratic ballot in the upcoming Primary Election and have voted in allor most of the elections since they’ve been eligible. June 2012Hannemann 45%Gabbard 27%Marx 9%Kiaaina 1%del Castillo -Shiratori -Don’t know 14%Refused 4%BASE 166When the results under this scenario are examined we find Hannemann leadingGabbard by 18-percentage points, 45% to 27%. Among those Democratic voters,Hannemann leads among males, 43% to 27%, among females 48% to 26%, amongOahu voters 48% to 34%, and among Neighbor Island voters 44% to 21%.
  • Favorability ScoreIn this section of the research registered voters were asked to rate their generalperceptions of the five candidates for the 2nd Congressional District. They were asked ifthey had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. The table below provides a recapof the candidates tested. The column at the far right highlights each individual’sfavorability ratio or the number of favorable responses for every one unfavorableresponse. Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never Heard Ratio of Fav:UnfavHannemann 51% 29% 18% 1% 1.75:1Gabbard 42% 10% 32% 16% 4.20:1Marx 17% 12% 37% 33% 1.41:1Kiaaina 9% 7% 23% 61% 1.28:1del Castillo 4% 7% 14% 74% .57:1Shiratori 3% 7% 12% 76% .42:1Crowley 6% 6% 17% 71% 1.00:1DiGeronimo 3% 7% 11% 79% .42:1Half (51%) the voters in the 2nd Congressional District has a favorable opinion of MufiHannemann. Twenty-nine percent has an unfavorable opinion of Mufi Hannemann. Ofthe remainder, 18% have no opinion of him while just 1% has never heard of him.Hannemann’s favorability ratio stands at 1.75 favorable responses for every oneunfavorable response.Forty-two percent have a favorable opinion of Gabbard while just 10% have anunfavorable opinion of her. A third (32%) has no opinion of Gabbard while 16% havenever heard of the candidate. Her favorability ratio stands at 4.20 favorable responsesfor every one unfavorable response.
  • PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS OVERALLAREAOahu 45%B.I. 25%Maui 21%Kauai 9%VOTING HISTORYAll/ Most 80%Some/ Few 18% st1 Time Voter 1%AGE18-34 13%35-49 21%50-64 39%65+ 24%MEAN 53.79PRIMARY BALLOTDemocrat 68%Republican 18%Other 4%Don’t know 10%IDEOLOGYDemocrat 58%Republican 16%Independent 31%UNION HOUSEHOLD 25%ETHNICITYCaucasian 28%Japanese 28%Hawaiian 18%Filipino 13%Other 10%GENDERMale 49%Female 51%
  • APPENDIX
  • !2012 Primary PollJune 2012Hello I’m___________ from QMark Research. We’re doing a survey this evening/today aboutan issue important to residents of your area and I’d like to ask you just a few short questions.A. Are you registered to vote at this address? 1 Yes 2 No (IF NO, ASK IF ANYONE ELSE IN HOUSEHOLD IS REGISTERED TO VOTE, IF NO – THANK AND TERMINATE INTERVIEW)As you may know, Hawaii will hold an election in 2012 to elect a US Representativefrom the 2nd Congressional District. I’d like you to think ahead to that election andanswer just a few questions…B. In the primary election to be held in August of 2012, would you say _____ (xx) you say you are certain to vote, that you will probably vote, or that something could happen to keep you from voting? (IF ANSWER “SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN TO KEEP ME FROM VOTING”, THANK AND TERMINATE INTERVIEW) 1 Certain to vote 2 Will probably vote 3 Something could happen to keep you from voting
  • 1. I am going to read you a list of some prominent individuals in our state. As I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each person. If you have heard of the person but don’t know enough about him or her to have an opinion, or if you have never heard of the person, just tell me. (ROTATE ORDER OF NAMES) 1= Favorable 2= Unfavorable 3= No opinion 4= Never heard of 1 Tulsi Gabbard _____ (xx) 2 Mufi Hannemann _____ (xx) 3 Rafael del Castillo _____ (xx) 4 Esther Kiaaina _____ (xx) 5 Bob Marx _____ (xx) 6 Kawika Crowley _____ (xx) 7 Matthew DiGeronimo _____ (xx) 8 Miles Shiratori _____ (xx)2. If the primary election to select a Democratic candidate to run _____ (xx) for US Representative from the 2nd Congressional District, your district, was held tomorrow and the candidates were Rafael del Castillo, Tulsi Gabbard, Mufi Hannemann, Esther Kiaaina, Bob Marx and Miles Shiratori, for whom would you vote? (IF NOT SURE, ASK:) Toward whom do you lean at this time? 1 Rafael del Castillo 2 Tulsi Gabbard 3. Mufi Hannemann 4. Esther Kiaaina 4. Bob Marx 5. Miles Shiratori 6 [DON’T KNOW/NOT SURE] 7 [REFUSED]2a. And do you strongly support ___________, somewhat support him/her or could something happen between now and the election to cause you to change your mind? 1 Strongly support him/her 2 Somewhat support him/her 3 Something could happen between now and the election "
  • And now, I have a few last questions for classification purposes.D1. In the elections held since you’ve been old enough to vote, _____ (xx) would you say you have voted in all of them, most of them, some of them or just a few of them? 1 All of them 2 Most of them 3 Some of them 4 Just a few 5 (FIRST TIME VOTER) 9 (DON’T KNOW)D2. Would you probably select to vote on the Democratic or Republican _____ (xx) ballot in this 2012 primary election? 1 Democratic ballot 2 Republican ballot 3 Some other ballot 4 (DON’T KNOW WHICH BALLOT I WILL SELECT)D3. Which of the following best describes you… _____ (xx) 1 Strong Democrat 2 Leaning Democrat 3 Independent 4 Leaning Republican 5 Strong Republican 6 (DON’T KNOW/REFUSED)D4 Are you or is anyone living in your household a member _____ (xx) of a labor union? 1 Yes 2 NoD5. What was your age on your last birthday? (RECORD ACTUAL AGE) _____ (xx) #
  • D6. What is your ethnic identification? (IF MORE THAN ONE ASK:) _____ (xx) With which do you identify the most? (IF NO CHOICE, MARK “MIXED”) 1 Caucasian 2 Japanese 3 Chinese 4 Filipino 5 Hawaiian/part Hawaiian 6 African-American 7 Other (SPECIFY) _____________ 8 Mixed 9 (REFUSED)D7. What is your residential zip code? _____________ (xx) [IF REFUSED ZIPCODE 99999 & ISLAND = OAHU, ASK]D7A. Which of the following areas of the island would you say you reside in? 1 Central Oahu 2 Leeward Oahu 3 Windward Oahu 4 North Shore [IF REFUSED ZIPCODE 99999 & ISLAND = BIG ISLAND, ASK]D7B. Would you say you live in the Hilo or Kona district? 1 Hilo 2 KonaD8. (RECORD DO NOT ASK) Gender 1 = Male 2 = Female _____(xx)May I have your first name, in case my office needs to verify that I completed this interview?Those are all the questions I have, thank you for your help with our study. $