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Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results WITH DEMOGRAPHICS
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Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results WITH DEMOGRAPHICS

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  • 1. 1 • 1,648 Likely General Election Voters • Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.4% • September 26-28, 2012Who would you vote for in the race for U.S. Senate—Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or FormerGovernor Linda Lingle? [name order randomized] Senate Hirono 55% Lingle 39% Unsure 6% Total 100%Do you have children who are in Hawaii public schools now, or who attended public schoolswithin the last 10 years? Kids_in_School Yes 32% No 67% Unsure 1% Total 100%In your mind, how good an education do Hawaiis public school students receive—excellent,good, fair, or poor? Educ_Quality Excellent 5% Good 34% Fair 44% Poor 14% Unsure 3% Total 100%
  • 2. 2How much of a negative impact did Furlough Fridays, which closed public schools twice eachmonth from 2009 to 2011, have on the quality of education in Hawaii? Furloughs Major Negative 40% Minor Negative 32% Not Negative 15% Unsure 13% Total 100%How much of a negative impact does the unresolved contract dispute—still ongoing afterteachers rejected an offer from the state earlier this year—have on the quality of education inHawaii? Teacher_Contract Major Negative 29% Minor Negative 34% Not Negative 13% Unsure 24% Total 100%How do you currently feel about the country’s economy? Economy Positive 57% Negative 40% Unsure 3% Total 100%
  • 3. 3Demographics: Gender Male 44% Female 56% Total 100% Age 18-29 5% 30-39 7% 40-49 10% 50-64 34% 65+ 43% Total 100% Race_Ethnicity Caucasian 40% Japanese 36% Filipino 7% Hawaiian 3% Chinese 10% Hispanic/Latino 1% Other/Mixed 3% Total 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive 27% Moderate 37% Conservative 22% Unsure 14% Total 100% Party_ID Democrat 54% Republican 17% Independent 24% Unsure 4% Total 100%
  • 4. 4 EducationNo degree 2%High School Degree 28%College Degree 43%Graduate Degree 27%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 12%No 88%Total 100% IncomeLess than $50,000 37%$50,000-$100,000 39%$100,000 or more 24%Total 100% CD1 54%2 46%Total 100% IslandOahu 76%Neighbor 24%Total 100%
  • 5. 5Crosstabs: Senate * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation% within Kids_in_School Kids_in_School Yes No UnsureSenate Hirono 48% 59% 58% Lingle 45% 36% 11% Unsure 7% 5% 32%Total 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureKids_in_Schoo Yes 27% 37% 36%l No 71% 62% 57% Unsure 1% 0% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation% within Educ_Quality Educ_Quality Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureSenate Hirono 63% 66% 56% 33% 35% Lingle 31% 27% 40% 63% 40% Unsure 6% 7% 4% 4% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 4% Good 41% 24% 42% Fair 44% 46% 31% Poor 9% 24% 11% Unsure 2% 3% 12%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 6. 6 Senate * Furloughs Crosstabulation% within Furloughs Furloughs Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureSenate Hirono 75% 51% 14% 55% Lingle 18% 47% 82% 31% Unsure 7% 2% 4% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 54% 19% 47% Minor Negative 29% 39% 12% Not Negative 4% 32% 10% Unsure 13% 10% 31%Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation% within Teacher_Contract Teacher_Contract Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureSenate Hirono 57% 62% 42% 53% Lingle 39% 34% 55% 36% Unsure 4% 5% 3% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 30% 30% 19%t Minor Negative 38% 30% 28% Not Negative 9% 18% 7% Unsure 23% 23% 46%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 Senate * Economy Crosstabulation% within Economy_Condensed Economy_Condensed Positive Negative UnsureSenate Hirono 78% 25% 35% Lingle 17% 72% 9% Unsure 6% 4% 56%Total 100% 100% 100% Economy * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureEconomy Positive 81% 25% 53% Negative 18% 74% 23% Unsure 2% 1% 24%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 Senate * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleSenate Hirono 52% 59% Lingle 42% 35% Unsure 6% 6%Total 100% 100% Senate * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Senate Hirono 49% 51% 54% 56% 57% Lingle 40% 25% 42% 40% 39% Unsure 11% 24% 3% 4% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedSenate Hirono 51% 67% 46% 54% 43% 58% 52% Lingle 46% 29% 38% 42% 44% 42% 38% Unsure 4% 4% 17% 4% 13% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureSenate Hirono 88% 59% 16% 47% Lingle 7% 37% 81% 36% Unsure 5% 4% 3% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 Senate * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureSenate Hirono 85% 5% 34% 16% Lingle 11% 92% 60% 40% Unsure 5% 2% 6% 44%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeSenate Hirono 58% 55% 54% 61% Lingle 33% 40% 40% 34% Unsure 9% 5% 6% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoSenate Hirono 58% 56% Lingle 36% 38% Unsure 6% 6%Total 100% 100% Senate * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreSenate Hirono 61% 54% 55% Lingle 33% 42% 40% Unsure 7% 5% 5%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 10. 10 Kids_in_School * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleKids_in_Schoo Yes 33% 31%l No 66% 68% Unsure 1% 1%Total 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Kids_in_Schoo Yes 48% 26% 43% 41% 21%l No 52% 68% 57% 58% 77% Unsure 6% 1% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedKids_in_Schoo Yes 31% 29% 50% 45% 24% 42% 43%l No 68% 70% 46% 53% 75% 58% 55% Unsure 1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureKids_in_Schoo Yes 28% 34% 32% 34%l No 70% 66% 68% 62% Unsure 2% 1% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 11. 11 Kids_in_School * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureKids_in_Schoo Yes 30% 30% 36% 38%l No 69% 70% 63% 50% Unsure 1% 1% 12%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeKids_in_Schoo Yes 31% 33% 32% 31%l No 64% 65% 67% 68% Unsure 6% 1% 1% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoKids_in_Schoo Yes 46% 30%l No 53% 69% Unsure 1% 1%Total 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreKids_in_Schoo Yes 30% 38% 28%l No 70% 61% 71% Unsure 1% 1% 1%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 12. 12 Educ_Quality * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 5% Good 31% 36% Fair 44% 43% Poor 18% 12% Unsure 2% 4%Total 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Educ_Quality Excellent 7% 5% 4% 6% Good 21% 28% 28% 30% 42% Fair 49% 50% 49% 47% 37% Poor 29% 11% 17% 17% 10% Unsure 3% 1% 2% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedEduc_Quality Excellent 3% 6% 13% 4% 4% 6% Good 26% 42% 34% 33% 43% 38% 25% Fair 47% 40% 39% 38% 44% 54% 45% Poor 22% 8% 9% 22% 5% 8% 20% Unsure 1% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 6% 3% 6% 6% Good 33% 36% 27% 41% Fair 45% 46% 43% 37% Poor 14% 14% 21% 6% Unsure 1% 1% 3% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 13. 13 Educ_Quality * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 4% 9% Good 40% 26% 27% 24% Fair 43% 45% 43% 50% Poor 9% 21% 23% 3% Unsure 2% 4% 3% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeEduc_Quality Excellent 6% 7% 5% 3% Good 51% 34% 32% 34% Fair 23% 44% 45% 44% Poor 11% 10% 16% 17% Unsure 9% 4% 2% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoEduc_Quality Excellent 12% 4% Good 33% 34% Fair 28% 46% Poor 25% 13% Unsure 2% 3% Educ_Quality * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreEduc_Quality Excellent 6% 5% 3% Good 34% 33% 31% Fair 44% 46% 45% Poor 13% 15% 18% Unsure 3% 1% 4%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 14. 14 Furloughs * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleFurloughs Major Negative 37% 42% Minor Negative 34% 31% Not Negative 20% 12% Unsure 9% 16%Total 100% 100% Furloughs * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Furloughs Major Negative 32% 56% 50% 40% 36% Minor Negative 28% 19% 29% 35% 33% Not Negative 19% 18% 17% 15% 15% Unsure 21% 8% 4% 10% 17%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedFurloughs Major 40% 42% 40% 46% 31% 54% 39% Negative Minor 34% 31% 23% 28% 36% 23% 29% Negative Not 16% 13% 17% 15% 19% 8% 18% Negative Unsure 10% 15% 19% 11% 14% 15% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureFurloughs Major 55% 41% 23% 35% Negative Minor 29% 33% 39% 25% Negative Not 6% 16% 29% 11% Negative Unsure 10% 11% 9% 30%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 15. 15 Furloughs * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureFurloughs Major 51% 22% 29% 31% Negative Minor 29% 32% 38% 22% Negative Not Negative 8% 31% 21% 17% Unsure 12% 15% 12% 29%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeFurloughs Major Negative 37% 37% 41% 41% Minor Negative 17% 32% 32% 33% Not Negative 26% 16% 15% 14% Unsure 20% 15% 12% 12%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoFurloughs Major Negative 49% 39% Minor Negative 25% 33% Not Negative 20% 15% Unsure 6% 14%Total 100% 100% Furloughs * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreFurloughs Major Negative 40% 40% 42% Minor Negative 32% 30% 36% Not Negative 14% 18% 14% Unsure 15% 12% 8%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 16. 16 Teacher_Contract * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 29% 29%t Minor Negative 37% 31% Not Negative 15% 12% Unsure 20% 28%Total 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 34% 36% 30% 31% 25%t Minor Negative 18% 30% 38% 35% 35% Not Negative 7% 11% 15% 12% 14% Unsure 41% 23% 17% 22% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedTeacher_Contrac Major 26% 31% 33% 38% 26% 25% 32%t Negative Minor 37% 30% 27% 31% 43% 33% 26% Negative Not 16% 11% 7% 13% 12% 8% 12% Negative Unsure 21% 28% 33% 18% 18% 33% 30%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureTeacher_Contrac Major 32% 31% 30% 19%t Negative Minor 40% 35% 29% 25% Negative Not 10% 14% 18% 8% Negative Unsure 19% 20% 24% 49%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 17. 17 Teacher_Contract * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureTeacher_Contrac Major 32% 26% 28% 12%t Negative Minor 36% 31% 33% 17% Negative Not 11% 16% 16% 7% Negative Unsure 22% 26% 23% 64%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 14% 30% 33% 24%t Minor Negative 25% 26% 33% 43% Not Negative 22% 9% 13% 16% Unsure 39% 36% 21% 17%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 37% 28%t Minor Negative 28% 34% Not Negative 19% 12% Unsure 16% 26%Total 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreTeacher_Contrac Major 30% 26% 31%t Negative Minor 31% 36% 37% Negative Not 9% 14% 17% Negative Unsure 29% 23% 15%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 18. 18 Educ_Quality * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation% within Kids_in_School Kids_in_School Yes No UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 6% 4% 26% Good 35% 34% 21% Fair 43% 44% 5% Poor 15% 14% 5% Unsure 1% 3% 42%Total 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation% within Educ_Quality Educ_Quality Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureKids_in_Schoo Yes 39% 33% 32% 34% 7%l No 54% 67% 68% 65% 75% Unsure 6% 1% 0% 0% 18%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation% within Kids_in_School Kids_in_School Yes No UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 39% 40% 21% Minor Negative 32% 32% 21% Not Negative 20% 13% 0% Unsure 9% 14% 58%Total 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Furloughs Crosstabulation% within Furloughs Furloughs Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureKids_in_Schoo Yes 32% 32% 42% 21%l No 68% 67% 58% 74% Unsure 1% 1% 0% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 19. 19 Teacher_Contract * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation% within Kids_in_School Kids_in_School Yes No UnsureTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 32% 28% 10%t Minor Negative 31% 35% 30% Not Negative 15% 12% Unsure 22% 25% 60%Total 100% 100% 100% Kids_in_School * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation% within Teacher_Contract Teacher_Contract Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureKids_in_Schoo Yes 35% 29% 38% 29%l No 65% 70% 62% 68% Unsure 0% 1% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * Furloughs Crosstabulation% within Furloughs Furloughs Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 7% 4% Good 35% 36% 24% 41% Fair 45% 46% 42% 35% Poor 13% 13% 26% 9% Unsure 2% 2% 2% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation% within Educ_Quality Educ_Quality Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 42% 41% 42% 35% 23% Minor Negative 25% 33% 34% 29% 20% Not Negative 22% 10% 14% 28% 9% Unsure 11% 15% 10% 8% 48%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 20. 20 Educ_Quality * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation% within Teacher_Contract Teacher_Contract Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 2% 5% 9% 6% Good 29% 43% 31% 30% Fair 49% 40% 37% 45% Poor 19% 9% 23% 12% Unsure 1% 2% 1% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%% within Educ_Quality Educ_Quality Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 14% 24% 33% 38% 11%t Minor Negative 35% 43% 31% 22% 22% Not Negative 23% 11% 11% 20% 4% Unsure 28% 22% 25% 20% 62%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Furloughs * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation% within Teacher_Contract Teacher_Contract Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 63% 40% 18% 24% Minor Negative 25% 44% 30% 24% Not Negative 8% 11% 47% 13% Unsure 4% 5% 6% 39%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Teacher_Contract * Furloughs Crosstabulation% within Furloughs Furloughs Major Minor Not Negative Negative Negative UnsureTeacher_Contrac Major Negative 46% 23% 16% 9%t Minor Negative 34% 47% 24% 12% Not Negative 6% 12% 39% 6% Unsure 15% 19% 21% 73%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * CD Crosstabulation
  • 21. 21% within CD CD 1 2 TotalSenate Hirono 55% 55% 55% Lingle 39% 38% 39% Unsure 6% 7% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Island Crosstabulation% within Island Island Oahu Neighbor TotalSenate Hirono 53% 64% 55% Lingle 41% 31% 39% Unsure 6% 6% 6%Total 100% 100% 100%