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Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 mayor and rail results

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  • 1. 1 • 1,257 Likely General Election Voters on Oahu • Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.8% • September 26-28, 2012Who would you vote for in the race for Honolulu mayor—former Governor Ben Cayetano, orformer Honolulu acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell? [name order randomized] Mayor Cayetano 51% Caldwell 42% Unsure 7% Total 100%How do you feel about the Honolulu Rail project – do you generally support or oppose it? Rail Support 38% Oppose 53% Unsure 10% Total 100%How recently did you make up your mind about the Rail project? Was it just within the past fewmonths? Within the past year? Or have you felt the same way about Rail for more than a year? Rail_Decide Few months 9% Past year 19% More than a year 71% Unsure 1% Total 100%
  • 2. 2Rail Supporters Only:How upset would you be if the Rail project is not completed—very upset, somewhat upset, ornot upset? Supporters Very upset 65% Somewhat upset 27% Not upset 8% Unsure 1% Total 100%The Hawaii Supreme Court recently ruled the city should have done all of its burial surveysalong the entire route before starting rail construction. Because of this, the city has haltedconstruction. Did this Supreme Court ruling reduce your support of the Rail project? Ruling Yes 5% No 84% Unsure 11% Total 100%
  • 3. 3Rail Opponents Only:How upset would you be if the Rail project is completed—very upset, somewhat upset, or notupset? Opponents Very upset 71% Somewhat upset 19% Not upset 7% Unsure 3% Total 100%What concerns you most about the Rail project? Is it that it will not help fix Honolulu’s trafficcongestion problems? That it’s too expensive? That it will damage Oahu’s natural beauty andlandscape? That not enough people will use it? Or that it will disturb Native Hawaiian burials? Concerns Traffic 35% Cost 37% Landscape 9% Use 13% Burials 0% Unsure 6% Total 100%
  • 4. 4Demographics: Gender Male 46% Female 54% Total 100% Age 18-29 5% 30-39 8% 40-49 10% 50-64 31% 65+ 46% Total 100% Race_Ethnicity Caucasian 36% Japanese 38% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 3% Chinese 12% Hispanic/Latino 0% Other/Mixed 3% Total 100%
  • 5. 5 PoliticsLiberal/Progressive 26%Moderate 38%Conservative 21%Unsure 15%Total 100% Party_IDDemocrat 52%Republican 18%Independent 26%Unsure 4%Total 100% EducationNo degree 2%High School Degree 27%College Degree 43%Graduate Degree 28%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 11%No 89%Total 100% IncomeLess than $50,000 33%$50,000-$100,000 40%$100,000 or more 27%Total 100%
  • 6. 6Crosstabs: Mayor * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureMayor Cayetano 11% 84% 19% Caldwell 87% 11% 43% Unsure 3% 5% 38%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureRail Support 8% 77% 14% Oppose 89% 14% 36% Unsure 3% 9% 51%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Rail_Decide Crosstabulation% within Rail_Decide Rail_Decide More Few Past than a months year year UnsureMayor Cayetano 69% 55% 52% 36% Caldwell 29% 41% 44% 55% Unsure 2% 4% 4% 9%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Rail_Decide * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureRail_Decide Few months 11% 6% 5% Past year 20% 18% 20% More than a year 68% 74% 73% Unsure 1% 1% 3%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 Mayor * Supporters Crosstabulation% within Supporters Supporters Very Somewhat Not upset upset upset UnsureMayor Cayetano 7% 14% 29% Caldwell 90% 84% 71% 100% Unsure 3% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Ruling Crosstabulation% within Ruling Ruling Yes No UnsureMayor Cayetano 16% 9% 18% Caldwell 84% 88% 80% Unsure 3% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Opponents Crosstabulation% within Opponents Opponents Very Somewhat Not upset upset upset UnsureMayor Cayetano 94% 60% 68% 58% Caldwell 3% 30% 30% 37% Unsure 3% 10% 2% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Concerns Crosstabulation% within Concerns Concerns Landscap Traffic Cost e Use Burials UnsureMayor Cayetano 90% 85% 83% 76% 50% 74% Caldwell 7% 12% 9% 15% 50% 12% Unsure 3% 3% 9% 9% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 Mayor * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleMayor Cayetano 55% 47% Caldwell 40% 44% Unsure 6% 8%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Mayor Cayetano 34% 50% 58% 51% 51% Caldwell 53% 31% 37% 43% 44% Unsure 14% 19% 5% 7% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedMayor Cayetano 58% 44% 47% 58% 47% 40% 54% Caldwell 35% 51% 44% 36% 41% 60% 31% Unsure 7% 5% 9% 6% 11% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 Mayor * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureMayor Cayetano 46% 47% 65% 45% Caldwell 48% 49% 29% 37% Unsure 5% 5% 5% 19%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureMayor Cayetano 43% 59% 59% 39% Caldwell 52% 36% 34% 12% Unsure 5% 5% 7% 49%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeMayor Cayetano 25% 52% 51% 48% Caldwell 55% 39% 44% 44% Unsure 20% 9% 5% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 10. 10 Mayor * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoMayor Cayetano 49% 50% Caldwell 42% 43% Unsure 9% 7%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreMayor Cayetano 48% 52% 49% Caldwell 44% 41% 47% Unsure 8% 8% 3%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 11. 11 Rail_Decide * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support OpposeRail_Decide Few months 8% 10% Past year 17% 20% More than a year 75% 68% Unsure 0% 1%Total 100% 100% Rail * Rail_Decide Crosstabulation% within Rail_Decide Rail_Decide More Few Past than a months year year UnsureRail Support 35% 38% 44% 18% Oppose 65% 62% 56% 82%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 12. 12 Rail * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleRail Support 39% 36% Oppose 54% 52% Unsure 7% 12%Total 100% 100% Rail * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Rail Support 63% 37% 33% 36% 37% Oppose 37% 49% 61% 53% 52% Unsure 14% 6% 11% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Rail * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedRail Support 31% 46% 40% 31% 32% 60% 26% Oppose 64% 43% 48% 63% 47% 40% 66% Unsure 5% 11% 12% 6% 20% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Rail * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureRail Support 42% 42% 24% 38% Oppose 47% 52% 70% 36% Unsure 10% 6% 6% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 13. 13 Rail * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureRail Support 46% 28% 29% 29% Oppose 44% 65% 64% 22% Unsure 9% 8% 7% 49%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Rail * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeRail Support 50% 34% 38% 40% Oppose 23% 54% 55% 49% Unsure 27% 12% 7% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Rail * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoRail Support 38% 38% Oppose 52% 52% Unsure 11% 10%Total 100% 100% Rail * Income Crosstabulation% within Income Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or moreRail Support 42% 36% 41% Oppose 48% 54% 51% Unsure 10% 10% 8%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 14. 14 Mayor * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureMayor Cayetano 42% 65% 25% Caldwell 53% 31% 24% Unsure 5% 4% 51%Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureSenate Hirono 44% 66% 35% Lingle 53% 30% 20% Unsure 3% 4% 44%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * CD Crosstabulation% within CD CD 1 2 TotalMayor Cayetano 49% 54% 51% Caldwell 44% 37% 42% Unsure 7% 9% 7%Total 100% 100% 100%

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