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Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate
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Civil Beat Poll October 2012 U.S. Senate

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  • 1. 1 • 1,218 Likely General Election Voters • Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.8% • October 24-26, 2012How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election? QScreen Percent Already voted 32% Definitely voting 67% 50/50 1% Total 100%Who are you supporting in the contest for U.S. Senate—Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, orformer Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle? [Name order randomized] Senate Hirono 55% Lingle 40% Unsure 5% Total 100%Are you definitely supporting her, or would you say you’re still just leaning that way? SenStrength Definitely 94% Leaning 5% Unsure 0% Total 100%Do you consider Linda Lingle a Conservative, a Moderate, or a Liberal? Lingle Conservative 36% Moderate 42% Liberal 6% Unsure 15% Total 100%
  • 2. 2Thinking back to Hawaii’s Senate primaries that took place this past August. Do youremember, did you vote in the Democratic Senate primary between Mazie Hirono and EdCase? The Republican Senate primary between Linda Lingle and John Carroll? Or neitherSenate primary? RetroSenScreen Democratic 75% Republican 15% Unsure 10% Total 100%Did you vote for Ed Case, or for Mazie Hirono? [Democratic Primary Voters Only] RetroDemSen Case 46% Hirono 52% Unsure 2% Total 100%Did you vote for John Carroll, or for Linda Lingle? [Republican Primary Voters Only] RetroGOPSen Carrol 6% Lingle 92% Unsure 1% Total 100%
  • 3. 3Demographics County Percent a. Oahu 74 b. Hawaii 12 c. Maui 9 d. Kauai 5 Total 100 CD Percent 1 54 2 46 Total 100 County_CD Percent a. Oahu_1 54 b. Oahu_2 20 c. Hawaii 12 d. Maui 9 e. Kauai 5 Total 100 Gender Percent a. Male 46 b. Female 54 Total 100 Age Percent a. 18-29 5 b. 30-39 7 c. 40-49 13 d. 50-64 35 e. 65+ 40 Total 100
  • 4. 4 Race_Ethnicity Percenta. Caucasian 41b. Japanese 34c. Filipino 4d. Hawaiian 5e. Chinese 7f. Hispanic/Latino 0g. Other/Mixed 9Total 100 Politics Percenta. Liberal/Progressive 30b. Moderate 39c. Conservative 21z. Unsure 10Total 100 Party_ID Percenta. Democrat 56b. Republican 18c. Independent 23z. Unsure 3Total 100 Education Percenta. No degree 2b. High School Degree 22c. College Degree 46d. Graduate Degree 30Total 100
  • 5. 5 Military_Family Percenta. Yes 13b. No 87Total 100 Household_Income Percenta. $50,000 or less 31b. $50,000-$100,000 40c. $100,000 or more 29Total 100
  • 6. 6Crosstabs Senate * Screen Crosstabulation% within Screen Screen Already Definitely voted voting 50/50Senate Hirono 61% 52% 33% Lingle 37% 42% 25% Unsure 2% 6% 42%Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * SenStrength Crosstabulation% within SenStrength SenStrength Definitely Leaning UnsureSenate Hirono 57% 63% 100% Lingle 43% 37%Total 100% 100% 100% SenStrength * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono LingleSenStrength Definitely 94% 96% Leaning 6% 4% Unsure 1%Total 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 Senate * Lingle Crosstabulation% within Lingle Lingle Conservativ e Moderate Liberal UnsureSenate Hirono 77% 27% 66% 70% Lingle 21% 69% 22% 14% Unsure 1% 4% 12% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Lingle * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureLingle Conservative 52% 19% 10% Moderate 21% 72% 30% Liberal 7% 3% 14% Unsure 20% 5% 46%Total 100% 100% 100% Lingle * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureLingle Conservative 60% 35% 23% 12%Politics Moderate 28% 49% 62% 13% Liberal 3% 7% 8% 9% Unsure 10% 9% 7% 66%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Politics * Lingle Crosstabulation% within AQLingle Lingle Politics Conservativ e Moderate Liberal UnsurePolitics Liberal/Progressive 48% 20% 13% 20% Moderate 36% 46% 44% 25% Conservative 13% 31% 29% 10% Unsure 3% 3% 15% 45%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 Senate * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureSenate Hirono 72% 39% 60% Lingle 24% 57% 25% Unsure 5% 4% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureRail Support 55% 24% 36% Oppose 37% 71% 43% Unsure 8% 4% 20%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 Senate * RetroSenScreen Crosstabulation% within RetroSenScreen RetroSenScreen Republica Democratic n UnsureSenate Hirono 68% 6% 42% Lingle 28% 91% 44% Unsure 4% 2% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% RetroSenScreen * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureRetroSenScreen Democratic 91% 54% 62% Republican 2% 35% 8% Unsure 7% 11% 30%Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * RetroDemSen Crosstabulation% within RetroDemSen RetroDemSen Case Hirono UnsureSenate Hirono 42% 92% 44% Lingle 53% 6% 38% Unsure 5% 2% 19%Total 100% 100% 100% RetroDemSen * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureRetroDemSen Case 29% 87% 61% Hirono 70% 10% 29% Unsure 1% 3% 10%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 10. 10 Senate * RetroGOPSen Crosstabulation% within RetroGOPSen RetroGOPSen Carrol Lingle UnsureSenate Hirono 50% 3% Lingle 20% 97% 100% Unsure 30% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% RetroGOPSen * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate Senate Hirono Lingle UnsureRetroGOPSen Carrol 56% 1% 75% Lingle 44% 97% 25% Unsure 1%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 11. 11 Senate * County Crosstabulation% within County County Oahu Hawaii Maui KauaiSenate Hirono 53% 63% 52% 55% Lingle 41% 33% 41% 41% Unsure 5% 4% 6% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * CD Crosstabulation% within CD CD 1 2Senate Hirono 54% 55% Lingle 41% 39% Unsure 5% 6%Total 100% 100% Senate * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiSenate Hirono 54% 51% 63% 52% 55% Lingle 41% 42% 33% 41% 41% Unsure 5% 7% 4% 6% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 12. 12 Senate * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleSenate Hirono 49% 62% Lingle 46% 34% Unsure 4% 5%Total 100% 100% Senate * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Senate Hirono 43% 52% 44% 60% 58% Lingle 45% 42% 50% 37% 38% Unsure 12% 5% 7% 3% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedSenate Hirono 55% 62% 45% 66% 39% 40% 48% Lingle 41% 35% 39% 30% 53% 60% 47% Unsure 4% 3% 16% 4% 9% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 13. 13 Senate * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureSenate Hirono 87% 50% 16% 66% Lingle 11% 46% 81% 18% Unsure 2% 4% 3% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureSenate Hirono 82% 9% 30% 42% Lingle 15% 90% 65% 19% Unsure 3% 2% 5% 39%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 14. 14 Senate * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeSenate Hirono 48% 58% 51% 61% Lingle 33% 37% 45% 36% Unsure 19% 6% 4% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoSenate Hirono 46% 57% Lingle 50% 39% Unsure 4% 4%Total 100% 100% Senate * Household_Income Crosstabulation% within Household_Income Household_Income $50,000 $50,000- $100,000 or less $100,000 or moreSenate Hirono 59% 58% 49% Lingle 35% 39% 48% Unsure 6% 3% 3%Total 100% 100% 100%

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