Civil Beat Poll October 2012 president

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  • 1. 1 • 1,218 Likely General Election Voters • Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.8% • October 24-26, 2012In this election, voters will elect a President, a new U.S. Senator, a U.S. Representative,[and a new Honolulu mayor]. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election? Screen Already voted 32% Definitely voting 67% 50/50 1% Total 100%Who are you supporting in the Presidential election—Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?[Name order randomized] President Obama 61% Romney 34% Unsure 5% Total 100%Are you definitely supporting him, or would you say you’re still just leaning that way? PresStrength Definitely 94% Leaning 5% Unsure 1% Total 100%
  • 2. 2How important have the Presidential debates been in your choice for President—veryimportant, somewhat important, or not important? PresDebates Very important 28% Somewhat important 36% Not important 34% Unsure 2% Total 100%Who did you vote for four years ago in the 2008 Presidential election—John McCain,Barack Obama, or neither candidate? RetroPres McCain 24% Obama 69% Neither/Unsure 7% Total 100%Now a quick question about the Honolulu Rail project—do you generally support or opposeit? [Oahu only] Rail Support 42% Oppose 51% Unsure 7% Total 100%
  • 3. 3Demographics County Oahu 74% Hawaii 12% Maui 9% Kauai 5% Total 100% CD 1 54% 2 46% Total 100% County_CD Oahu_1 54% Oahu_2 20% Hawaii 12% Maui 9% Kauai 5% Total 100% Gender Male 46% Female 54% Total 100% Age 18-29 5% 30-39 7% 40-49 13% 50-64 35% 65+ 40% Total 100%
  • 4. 4 Race_EthnicityCaucasian 41%Japanese 34%Filipino 4%Hawaiian 5%Chinese 7%Hispanic/Latino 0%Other/Mixed 9%Total 100% PoliticsLiberal/Progressive 30%Moderate 39%Conservative 21%Unsure 10%Total 100% Party_IDDemocrat 56%Republican 18%Independent 23%Unsure 3%Total 100%
  • 5. 5 Education No degree 2% High School Degree 22% College Degree 46% Graduate Degree 30% Total 100%Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or childserved active military duty in Iraq or Afghanistan at any time in the past ten years? Military_Family Yes 13% No 87% Total 100% Household_Income $50,000 or less 31% $50,000-$100,000 40% $100,000 or more 29% Total 100%
  • 6. 6Crosstabs President * Screen Crosstabulation% within Screen Screen Already Definitely voted voting 50/50President Obama 66% 59% 8% Romney 31% 36% 25% Unsure 3% 6% 67%Total 100% 100% 100% PresStrength * President Crosstabulation% within President President Obama RomneyPresStrength Definitely 96% 91% Leaning 3% 9% Unsure 1% 0%Total 100% 100% President * PresStrength Crosstabulation% within PresStrength PresStrength Definitely Leaning UnsurePresident Obama 65% 41% 88% Romney 35% 59% 13%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 President * PresDebates Crosstabulation% within PresDebates PresDebates Very Not importan Somewhat importan t important t UnsurePresident Obama 56% 62% 66% 19% Romney 41% 35% 29% 10% Unsure 3% 3% 5% 71%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% PresDebates * President Crosstabulation% within President President Obama Romney UnsurePresDebates Very important 26% 34% 19% Somewhat important 37% 37% 23% Not important 37% 29% 34% Unsure 1% 0% 24%Total 100% 100% 100% President * RetroPres Crosstabulation% within RetroPres RetroPres McCain Obama UnsurePresident Obama 8% 84% 29% Romney 88% 13% 44% Unsure 4% 3% 26%Total 100% 100% 100% RetroPres * President Crosstabulation% within President President Obama Romney UnsureRetroPres McCain 3% 65% 21% Obama 94% 26% 46% Unsure 3% 9% 33%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 President * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsurePresident Obama 78% 47% 62% Romney 20% 47% 23% Unsure 3% 6% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Rail * President Crosstabulation% within President President Obama Romney UnsureRail Support 53% 24% 21% Oppose 39% 71% 58% Unsure 7% 5% 21%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 President * County Crosstabulation% within County County Oahu Hawaii Maui KauaiPresident Obama 60% 67% 60% 54% Romney 35% 28% 33% 42% Unsure 5% 5% 7% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% President * CD Crosstabulation% within CD CD 1 2President Obama 61% 61% Romney 35% 32% Unsure 4% 6%Total 100% 100% President * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiPresident Obama 61% 60% 67% 60% 54% Romney 35% 33% 28% 33% 42% Unsure 4% 7% 5% 7% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 10. 10 President * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemalePresident Obama 56% 67% Romney 39% 29% Unsure 5% 4%Total 100% 100% President * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+President Obama 59% 48% 46% 68% 64% Romney 27% 48% 43% 30% 32% Unsure 14% 4% 12% 2% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% President * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedPresident Obama 61% 66% 50% 76% 59% 40% 54% Romney 36% 31% 34% 24% 34% 60% 34% Unsure 4% 3% 16% 7% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 11. 11 President * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsurePresident Obama 89% 61% 18% 72% Romney 9% 36% 76% 10% Unsure 2% 2% 7% 19%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% President * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsurePresident Obama 88% 12% 37% 48% Romney 10% 86% 53% 16% Unsure 2% 2% 10% 35%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 12. 12 President * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreePresident Obama 48% 62% 56% 70% Romney 38% 32% 40% 26% Unsure 14% 6% 4% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% President * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoPresident Obama 53% 63% Romney 42% 33% Unsure 5% 4%Total 100% 100% President * Household_Income Crosstabulation% within Household_Income Household_Income $50,000- $50,000 $100,00 $100,000 or less 0 or morePresident Obama 62% 65% 55% Romney 30% 33% 41% Unsure 8% 3% 4%Total 100% 100% 100%