Civil Beat Poll October 2012 2nd Congressional

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  • 1. 1 • 562 Likely General Election Voters in the 2nd Congressional District • Sampling Margin of Error +/-4.1% • October 24-26, 2012Who are you supporting in the contest for Congress—former Honolulu City CouncilwomanTulsi Gabbard, or Tea Party activist Kawika Crowley? [Name order randomized] CD2 Gabbard 73% Crowley 15% Unsure 12% Total 100%Demographics for CD 2 County_CD Oahu_2 44% Hawaii 26% Maui 19% Kauai 10% Total 100% Gender Male 45% Female 55% Total 100% Age 18-29 6% 30-39 8% 40-49 11% 50-64 38% 65+ 37% Total 100%
  • 2. 2 Race_EthnicityCaucasian 53%Japanese 27%Filipino 3%Hawaiian 5%Chinese 2%Hispanic/Latino 1%Other/Mixed 9%Total 100% PoliticsLiberal/Progressive 30%Moderate 38%Conservative 21%Unsure 11%Total 100% Party_IDDemocrat 58%Republican 17%Independent 22%Unsure 4%Total 100%
  • 3. 3 EducationNo degree 3%High School Degree 25%College Degree 42%Graduate Degree 30%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 16%No 84%Total 100% Household_Income$50,000 or less 33%$50,000-$100,000 43%$100,000 or more 24%Total 100%
  • 4. 4Crosstabs CD2 * Screen Crosstabulation% within Screen Screen Already Definitely voted voting 50/50CD2 Gabbard 81% 69% 33% Crowley 14% 17% Unsure 6% 14% 67%Total 100% 100% 100% CD2 * CongStrength Crosstabulation% within CongStrength CongStrength Definitely Leaning UnsureCD2 Gabbard 84% 71% 100% Crowley 16% 29%Total 100% 100% 100% CongStrength * CD2 Crosstabulation% within CD2 CD2 Gabbard CrowleyCongStrength Definitely 89% 81% Leaning 10% 19% Unsure 1%Total 100% 100%
  • 5. 5 CD2 * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureCD2 Gabbard 84% 66% 80% Crowley 8% 16% 13% Unsure 8% 18% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * CD2 Crosstabulation% within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley UnsureRail Support 43% 24% 23% Oppose 49% 69% 74% Unsure 7% 7% 3%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 6. 6 CD2 * County Crosstabulation% within County County Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiCD2 Gabbard 72% 76% 72% 71% Crowley 15% 14% 17% 19% Unsure 14% 10% 10% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleCD2 Gabbard 76% 73% Crowley 15% 13% Unsure 9% 14%Total 100% 100% CD2 * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+CD2 Gabbard 58% 77% 70% 79% 74% Crowley 23% 5% 14% 12% 17% Unsure 19% 18% 16% 9% 9%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedCD2 Gabbard 73% 83% 85% 73% 88% 67% 53% Crowley 17% 7% 8% 12% 13% 33% 24% Unsure 10% 10% 8% 15% 22%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 CD2 * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureCD2 Gabbard 91% 78% 53% 59% Crowley 5% 12% 36% 5% Unsure 4% 10% 11% 36%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureCD2 Gabbard 87% 42% 68% 61% Crowley 5% 42% 19% 0% Unsure 7% 17% 13% 39%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeCD2 Gabbard 87% 73% 76% 72% Crowley 13% 13% 14% 15% Unsure 0% 14% 10% 12%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoCD2 Gabbard 65% 77% Crowley 23% 13% Unsure 12% 11%Total 100% 100% CD2 * Household_Income Crosstabulation% within Household_Income Household_Income $50,000- $50,000 $100,00 $100,000 or less 0 or moreCD2 Gabbard 74% 78% 68% Crowley 15% 13% 16% Unsure 10% 8% 15%Total 100% 100% 100%