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Civil Beat Poll October 2012 1st Congressional
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Civil Beat Poll October 2012 1st Congressional

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  • 1. 1 • 657 Likely General Election Voters in the 1st Congressional District • Sampling Margin of Error +/-3.8% • October 24-26, 2012Who are you supporting in the contest for Congress—Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa,or former Congressman Charles Djou? [Name order randomized] CD1 Hanabusa 54% Djou 43% Unsure 4% Total 100%Has Colleen Hanabusa’s work in Congress these past two years made you more or lesslikely to vote for her? CD1Hanabusa More likely 44% Less likely 35% No difference 17% Unsure 4% Total 100%Two years ago, in November 2010, Charles Djou and Colleen Hanabusa ran against eachother for Congress. What did you do in that contest? CD1QRetro Percent Djou 40% Hanabusa 54% Unsure 6% Total 100%
  • 2. 2Demographics for CD 1 Gender Male 46% Female 54% Total 100% Age 18-29 4% 30-39 6% 40-49 14% 50-64 33% 65+ 43% Total 100% Race_Ethnicity Caucasian 30% Japanese 41% Filipino 6% Hawaiian 4% Chinese 11% Hispanic/Latino 0% Other/Mixed 8% Total 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive 30% Moderate 40% Conservative 21% Unsure 9% Total 100% Party_ID Democrat 55% Republican 19% Independent 24% Unsure 2% Total 100%
  • 3. 3 EducationNo degree 1%High School Degree 20%College Degree 49%Graduate Degree 31%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 10%No 90%Total 100% Household_Income$50,000 or less 30%$50,000-$100,000 38%$100,000 or more 32%Total 100%
  • 4. 4Crosstabs CD1 * Screen Crosstabulation% within Screen Screen Already Definitely voted voting 50/50CD1 Hanabusa 55% 53% 20% Djou 45% 42% 40% Unsure 5% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% CD1 * CongStrength Crosstabulation% within CongStrength CongStrength Definitely Leaning UnsureCD1 Hanabusa 56% 55% 33% Djou 44% 45% 67%Total 100% 100% 100% CongStrength * CD1 Crosstabulation% within CD1 CD1 Hanabus a DjouCongStrength Definitely 93% 92% Leaning 7% 7% Unsure 0% 1%Total 100% 100%
  • 5. 5 CD1 * CD1Hanabusa Crosstabulation% within CD1Hanabusa CD1Hanabusa More Less No likely likely difference UnsureCD1 Hanabusa 94% 10% 48% 22% Djou 5% 89% 49% 33% Unsure 1% 1% 4% 44%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD1Hanabusa * CD1 Crosstabulation% within CD1 CD1 Hanabus a Djou UnsureCD1Hanabusa More likely 77% 5% 17% Less likely 6% 73% 13% No difference 15% 19% 17% Unsure 2% 3% 52%Total 100% 100% 100% CD1 * CD1Retro Crosstabulation% within CD1Retro CD1Retro Hanabus Djou a UnsureCD1 Hanabusa 6% 92% 39% Djou 94% 6% 39% Unsure 0% 2% 22%Total 100% 100% 100% CD1Retro * CD1 Crosstabulation% within CD1 CD1 Hanabus a Djou UnsureCD1Retro Djou 4% 87% 7% Hanabusa 91% 8% 40% Unsure 4% 6% 53%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 6. 6 CD1 * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureCD1 Hanabusa 73% 36% 59% Djou 24% 62% 24% Unsure 3% 2% 17%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * CD1 Crosstabulation% within CD1 CD1 Hanabus a Djou UnsureRail Support 58% 24% 38% Oppose 34% 72% 24% Unsure 8% 4% 38%Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 CD1 * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleCD1 Hanabusa 50% 58% Djou 47% 39% Unsure 2% 3%Total 100% 100% CD1 * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+CD1 Hanabusa 65% 56% 45% 55% 55% Djou 35% 38% 50% 42% 43% Unsure 6% 5% 2% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CD1 * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedCD1 Hanabusa 50% 64% 34% 70% 35% 100% 53% Djou 47% 35% 59% 26% 59% 44% Unsure 3% 1% 6% 4% 6% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 CD1 * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureCD1 Hanabusa 91% 47% 9% 67% Djou 6% 49% 91% 29% Unsure 2% 4% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD1 * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureCD1 Hanabusa 84% 5% 27% 38% Djou 13% 93% 70% 62% Unsure 3% 2% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 CD1 * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeCD1 Hanabusa 55% 46% 67% Djou 83% 42% 52% 31% Unsure 17% 4% 2% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD1 * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoCD1 Hanabusa 45% 55% Djou 53% 42% Unsure 2% 3%Total 100% 100% CD1 * Household_Income Crosstabulation% within Household_Income Household_Income $50,000 $50,000- $100,000 or less $100,000 or moreCD1 Hanabusa 56% 55% 52% Djou 40% 42% 47% Unsure 4% 3% 1%Total 100% 100% 100%