Civil beat governor and lieutenant governor poll july 2014

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  • 1. 895 Likely Democratic Primary Voters; Margin of Error +/- 3.3% July 24 - July 28 77% Landlines; 23% Cellphones Abercrombie 41% Ige 51% Unsure 8% Past month 18% 2-3 months 18% 3+ months 62% Unsure 2% Past month 40% 2-3 months 36% 3+ months 23% Unsure 1% Who are you supporting in the Democratic primary for Governor, Neil Abercrombie or David Ige [name order randomized]? [Abercrombie supporters only] About how recently did you decide to support Neil Abercrombie? Was it just within the past month? Within the past two or three months? Or have you supported him for longer than three months? [Ige supporters only] About how recently did you decide to support David Ige? Was it just within the past month? Within the past two or three months? Or have you supported him for longer than three months?
  • 2. Against Abercrombie 55% For Ige 42% Unsure 3% Tsutsui 45% Hee 35% Unsure 20% Positive 43% Negative 47% Unsure 9% Positive 59% Negative 12% Unsure 29% Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Governor Neil Abercrombie? Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of State Senator David Ige? [Ige supporters only] On balance, would you say that you are mostly supporting David Ige because you want to vote against Neil Abercrombie, or because you support David Ige on his own merits? In the Democratic primary for Lieutentant Governor, are you supporting Shan Tsutsui or Clayton Hee?
  • 3. DEMOGRAPHICS GENDER Male 48% Female 52% ETHNICITY/RACE Caucasian 43% Japanese 27% Filipino 9% Hawaiian 9% Chinese 6% Hispanic/Latino 1% Other/Mixed 6% POLITICAL ORIENTATION Liberal/Progressive 43% Moderate 40% Conservative 12% Unsure 5% PARTY I.D. Democrat 77% Republican 6% Independent 17% Unsure 1% Yes 60% No 38% Refused 2% Yes 30% No 66% Refused 5% Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union?
  • 4. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Less than $50,000 37% $50,000 - $100,000 26% More than $100,000 21% Refused 15% COUNTY/CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Oahu_CD1 54% Oahu_CD2 18% Hawaii 15% Maui 8% Kauai 6%
  • 5. CROSSTABS GOVERNOR Male Female Abercrombie 43% 40% Ige 49% 52% Unsure 8% 8% GOVERNOR Under 50 50 and older Abercrombie 39% 41% Ige 52% 51% Unsure 8% 8% GOVERNOR Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Latino Other Mixed Abercrombie 51% 29% 47% 27% 36% 34% 30% Ige 43% 66% 39% 64% 49% 20% 60% Unsure 6% 5% 14% 8% 15% 46% 10% GOVERNOR Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Abercrombie 41% 30% 49% 50% 44% Ige 51% 61% 41% 40% 54% Unsure 8% 8% 10% 10% 2% GOVERNOR Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure Abercrombie 57% 29% 19% 31% Ige 38% 61% 69% 58% Unsure 5% 10% 11% 11% GOVERNOR Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Abercrombie 45% 15% 25% 57% Ige 47% 79% 67% 15% Unsure 8% 6% 8% 28%
  • 6. GOVERNOR Military_Family_Ye s Military_Family_No Abercrombie 39% 42% Ige 53% 50% Unsure 8% 8% GOVERNOR Union_Family_Yes Union_Family_No Abercrombie 27% 46% Ige 65% 46% Unsure 8% 8% GOVERNOR <$50k $50-$100k $100k+ Abercrombie 41% 43% 41% Ige 44% 54% 52% Unsure 15% 3% 7% GOVERNOR Abercrombie Positive Abercrombie Negative Unsure Abercrombie 83% 7% 19% Ige 12% 88% 45% Unsure 5% 6% 36% GOVERNOR Ige_Positive Ige_Negative Unsure Abercrombie 25% 82% 55% Ige 70% 14% 28% Unsure 4% 3% 18% GOVERNOR Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Abercrombie 56% 26% 27% Ige 37% 72% 35% Unsure 7% 2% 38% GOVERNOR Tsutsui Hee Unsure Abercrombie 41% 45% 35% Ige 53% 50% 48% Unsure 6% 6% 17%
  • 7. LTGOV Male Female Tsutsui 43% 48% Hee 39% 31% Unsure 18% 21% LTGOV Under 50 50 and older Tsutsui 45% 47% Hee 32% 35% Unsure 23% 18% LTGOV Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Latino Other Mixed Tsutsui 45% 56% 34% 45% 39% 59% 41% Hee 35% 27% 44% 49% 40% 16% 30% Unsure 21% 17% 22% 6% 20% 25% 29% LTGOV Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Tsutsui 42% 50% 46% 65% 29% Hee 38% 32% 31% 15% 48% Unsure 20% 17% 23% 20% 23% LTGOV Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure Tsutsui 43% 51% 40% 45% Hee 37% 30% 44% 29% Unsure 20% 19% 16% 26% LTGOV Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Tsutsui 47% 49% 44% 8% Hee 35% 27% 31% 87% Unsure 18% 24% 24% 5% LTGOV Military_Family_Ye Military_Family_No Tsutsui 46% 49% Hee 37% 31% Unsure 18% 20% LTGOV Union_Family_Yes Union_Family_No Tsutsui 45% 48% Hee 34% 36% Unsure 22% 16%
  • 8. LTGOV <$50k $50-$100k $100k+ Tsutsui 44% 44% 52% Hee 39% 35% 34% Unsure 17% 21% 15% LTGOV Abercrombie Abercrombie Unsure Tsutsui 48% 44% 39% Hee 37% 35% 23% Unsure 16% 21% 37% LTGOV Ige_Positive Ige_Negative Unsure Tsutsui 46% 57% 38% Hee 36% 33% 32% Unsure 17% 10% 30% LTGOV Abercrombie Ige Unsure Tsutsui 45% 47% 35% Hee 38% 34% 24% Unsure 17% 19% 41%