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Civil Beat February 2014 U.S. Senate Primary
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Civil Beat February 2014 U.S. Senate Primary

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  • 1. 1 Statewide Registered Voter Sample = 1,003 Margin of Error = +/- 3.1% 29% Cell Phones, 71% Landlines This upcoming August, Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa [candidate name order randomized] will face each other in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized] will run in the Democratic primary for Governor. In Hawaii, you can only vote in one party’s primary—you must choose between voting in the Democratic Primary, the Republican primary, or another party’s primary. What are you most likely to do on primary day in August? DemScreen Democratic GOP Other/None Unsure   64% 19% 7% 10% Likely Democratic Primary Voter Sample = 643 Margin of Error = +/- 3.9% --Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Senator Brian Schatz? Schatz   Positive Negative Unsure 51% 27% 22% --Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of First District Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa? Hanabusa   Positive Negative Unsure 58% 29% 13%
  • 2. 2 --If you vote in the Democratic Senate primary between Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa [candidate name order randomized], what would you do? Senate   Schatz Hanabusa Unsure 40% 40% 20% --How do you feel about Barack Obama’s job performance as President? Obama   Approve Disapprove Unsure 74% 22% 3%
  • 3. 3 Demographics (Likely Democratic Primary Voters) Sex   Male Female     47% 53%     Age   Under 50 Fifty and over 26% 74% Race_Ethnicity   Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Refused 35% 29% 9% 8% 5% 1% 13% 0% County_CD Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 50% 18% 14% 12% 5% Politics Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 38% 36% 13% 13%
  • 4. 4 Party   Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 75% 7% 16% 2% Education   No degree HS graduate College Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc Grad Degree Refused 2% 12% 25% 27% 30% 2% Military_Family Yes No Refused 61% 37% 3% Union_Family   Yes No Refused 38% 59% 4% Income   Under $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 or more Refused 24% 36% 21% 19%
  • 5. 5 Opinion Crosstabs Senate * Schatz Crosstabulation % within Schatz Senate Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Total Schatz Positive Negative Unsure 67% 12% 9% 18% 69% 58% 15% 19% 33% 100% 100% 100% Schatz * Senate Crosstabulation % within Senate Senate Schatz Total Positive Negative Unsure Schatz Hanabusa Unsure 87% 23% 38% 8% 46% 26% 5% 31% 36% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Hanabusa Crosstabulation % within Hanabusa Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Senate Schatz 21% 75% 42% Hanabusa 62% 9% 17% Unsure 16% 17% 41% Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 6. 6 Hanabusa * Senate Crosstabulation % within Senate Senate Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Total Schatz Hanabusa Unsure 31% 88% 48% 55% 6% 24% 14% 6% 28% 100% 100% 100% % within Obama Obama Schatz Positive Negative Unsure Total Approve Disapprove Unsure 56% 35% 55% 21% 51% 5% 23% 14% 41% 100% 100% 100% Hanabusa * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Total Approve Disapprove Unsure 66% 31% 45% 21% 58% 23% 13% 10% 32% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Senate Total Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Approve Disapprove Unsure 40% 42% 27% 43% 33% 32% 17% 24% 41% 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 Senate * Governor Crosstabulation % within Governor Governor Senate Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Total Abercrombie 54% 32% 14% 100% Ige Unsure 31% 31% 55% 31% 13% 38% 100% 100% Governor * Senate Crosstabulation % within Senate Senate Governor Abercrombie Ige Unsure Total Schatz Hanabusa Unsure 50% 29% 25% 29% 51% 25% 20% 20% 50% 100% 100% 100% Demographic Crosstabs Schatz * Sex Crosstabulation % within Sex Schatz Positive Negative Unsure Total Male 45% 33% 22% 100% Sex Female Refused 58%   22% 100% 21%   100% 100% Schatz * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Schatz Total Positive Negative Unsure Age Under Fifty and 50 over 41% 56% 38% 23% 21% 21% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 Schatz * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasia Japanes Filipin Hawaiia Chines Hispani n e o n e c Schatz Positive 66% 44% 32% 39% 61% 40% Negativ 21% 26% 40% 39% 14% 40% e Unsure 13% 30% 28% 22% 25% 20% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Other/ Mixed 54% 30% 16% 100% Schatz * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Schatz Positive Negative Unsure Total Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 50% 59% 46% 51% 50% 29% 26% 23% 29% 22% 21% 15% 31% 20% 28% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Schatz * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Schatz Positive Negative Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 69% 48% 34% 34% 15% 31% 49% 25% 15% 21% 17% 41% 100% 100% 100% 100% Schatz * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Schatz Total Positive Negative Unsure Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 55% 33% 47% 62% 21% 60% 41% 15% 25% 7% 12% 23% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 Schatz * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Schatz Total Education No HS College Grad degree graduate Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc Degree Refused Positive 36% 34% 49% 55% 60% 62% Negative 14% 23% 37% 20% 27% 15% Unsure 50% 43% 14% 24% 13% 23% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Schatz * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Refused Schatz Positive 49% 58% 41% Negative 29% 23% 18% Unsure 21% 20% 41% Total 100% 100% 100% Schatz * Union_Family Crosstabulation % within Union_Family Union_Family Yes No Refused Schatz Positive 50% 55% 29% Negative 31% 23% 29% Unsure 18% 22% 43% Total 100% 100% 100% Schatz * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Schatz Total Positive Negative Unsure Income Under $50,000 - $100,000 $50,000 $99,999 or more Refused 48% 55% 57% 52% 23% 29% 30% 19% 29% 16% 13% 29% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 10. 10 Hanabusa * Sex Crosstabulation % within Sex Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Total Male 56% 30% 13% 100% Sex Female Refused 60% 50% 28% 50% 13%   100% 100% Hanabusa * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age Under Fifty and 50 over Hanabusa Positive 53% 59% Negative 27% 30% Unsure 21% 11% Total 100% 100% Hanabusa * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasi Japanes Filipin Hawaiia Chines Hispani Other/ an e o n e c Mixed Hanabusa HanabusaPositive 46% 69% 55% 77% 59% 60% 47% Negativ 36% 22% 28% 17% 33% 20% 42% e Unsure 18% 9% 17% 6% 7% 20% 11% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Hanabusa * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Hanabusa Total Positive Negative Unsure Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 61% 54% 51% 53% 63% 30% 35% 26% 23% 26% 9% 11% 23% 23% 11% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 11. 11 Hanabusa * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 59% 52% 55% 65% 24% 37% 36% 21% 17% 11% 9% 14% 100% 100% 100% 100% Hanabusa * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Total Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 65% 27% 37% 23% 23% 59% 52% 23% 12% 15% 11% 54% 100% 100% 100% 100% Hanabusa * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Hanabusa Total Education No HS College Grad degree graduate Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc Degree Refused Positive 67% 68% 47% 59% 54% 100% Negative 7% 18% 36% 26% 37%   Unsure 27% 15% 16% 15% 8%   100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Hanabusa * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Refused Hanabusa Positive 56% 58% 76% Negative 33% 27% 6% Unsure 12% 16% 18% Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 12. 12 Hanabusa * Union_Family Crosstabulation % within Union_Family Union_Family Yes No Refused Hanabusa Positive 63% 53% 67% Negative 27% 32% 24% Unsure 10% 15% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% Hanabusa * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Hanabusa Positive Negative Unsure Total Income Under $50,000 - $100,000 $50,000 $99,999 or more Refused 59% 60% 50% 54% 23% 29% 40% 31% 18% 11% 10% 16% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Sex Crosstabulation % within Sex Senate Total Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Sex Male Female Refused 37% 43%   43% 38% 50% 20% 19% 50% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age Under Fifty and 50 over Senate Schatz 36% 42% Hanabusa 38% 41% Unsure 26% 16% Total 100% 100%
  • 13. 13 Senate * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasia Japanes Filipin Hawaiia Chines Hispani n e o n e c Senate Schatz 54% 31% 32% 23% 48% 20% Hanabus 30% 47% 30% 63% 37% 60% a Unsure 16% 21% 38% 15% 15% 20% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Other/ Mixed 43% 38% 18% 100% Senate * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Senate Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Total Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 40% 47% 31% 43% 28% 42% 32% 44% 39% 44% 18% 21% 25% 17% 28% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Senate Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 48% 43% 28% 28% 33% 41% 50% 43% 19% 16% 22% 28% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Senate Total Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 40% 39% 44% 58% 41% 37% 34% 17% 18% 24% 22% 25% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 14. 14 Senate * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Senate Total Education No HS College Grad degree graduate Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc Degree Refused Schatz 7% 29% 43% 42% 48% 36% Hanabusa 53% 51% 37% 40% 34% 50% Unsure 40% 21% 20% 18% 19% 14% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Senate * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Refused Senate Schatz 37% 49% 24% Hanabusa 42% 34% 41% Unsure 21% 17% 35% Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Union_Family Crosstabulation % within Union_Family Union_Family Yes No Refused Senate Schatz 34% 47% 14% Hanabusa 47% 33% 52% Unsure 18% 20% 33% Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Senate Total Schatz Hanabusa Unsure Income Under $50,000 - $100,000 $50,000 $99,999 or more Refused 36% 39% 52% 43% 42% 42% 33% 36% 22% 20% 15% 21% 100% 100% 100% 100%