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Cb february 2014 gubernatorial primary (1)
 

Cb february 2014 gubernatorial primary (1)

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  • Wow what a shocker as this was the best indication since the Star Advertiser pol. Dead even but the tell is the positives or in Neil's case in the negatives. It looks like he is Mufi with the negatives of 4 years ago. Now to look at the other candidate, Duke Aiona, He has better positives last poll and what does he have now? Great to have some information as Ige will be busy working until May.
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    Cb february 2014 gubernatorial primary (1) Cb february 2014 gubernatorial primary (1) Document Transcript

    • 1 Statewide Registered Voter Sample = 1,003 Margin of Error = +/- 3.1% 29% Cell Phones, 71% Landlines This upcoming August, Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa [candidate name order randomized] will face each other in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized] will run in the Democratic primary for Governor. In Hawaii, you can only vote in one party’s primary—you must choose between voting in the Democratic Primary, the Republican primary, or another party’s primary. What are you most likely to do on primary day in August? DemScreen Democratic GOP Other/None Unsure   64% 19% 7% 10% Likely Democratic Primary Voter Sample = 643 Margin of Error = +/- 3.9% --Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Governor Neil Abercrombie? Abercrombie   Positive Negative Unsure   42% 46% 12% --Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of State Senator David Ige? Ige   Positive Negative Unsure   31% 13% 56%
    • 2 --If you vote in the Democratic primary for Governor between Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized], what would you do? Governor   Abercrombie Ige Unsure   37% 37% 26% --How do you feel about Barack Obama’s job performance as President? Obama   Approve Disapprove Unsure 74% 22% 3% Demographics (Likely Democratic Primary Voters) Sex   Male Female     47% 53%     Age   Under 50 Fifty and over 26% 74%
    • 3 Race_Ethnicity   Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Refused 35% 29% 9% 8% 5% 1% 13% 0% County_CD Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 50% 18% 14% 12% 5% Politics Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 38% 36% 13% 13%
    • 4 Party   Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 75% 7% 16% 2% Education   No degree HS graduate College Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc Grad Degree Refused 2% 12% 25% 27% 30% 2% Military_Family Yes No Refused 61% 37% 3% Union_Family   Yes No Refused 38% 59% 4% Income   Under $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 or more Refused 24% 36% 21% 19%
    • 5 Opinion Crosstabs Governor * Abercrombie Crosstabulation % within Abercrombie Abercrombie Governor Abercrombie Ige Unsure Total Positive Negative Unsure 78% 6% 11% 5% 68% 32% 17% 26% 58% 100% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Governor Crosstabulation % within Governor Governor Abercrombie Positive Negative Unsure Total Abercrombie 89% 8% 3% 100% Ige Unsure 6% 28% 85% 47% 10% 25% 100% 100% Governor * Ige Crosstabulation % within Ige Ige Governor Abercrombie Ige Unsure Total Positive Negative Unsure 20% 64% 40% 72% 19% 22% 9% 18% 38% 100% 100% 100%
    • 6 Ige * Governor Crosstabulation % within Governor Governor Ige Total Positive Negative Unsure Abercrombie 17% 23% 61% 100% Ige Unsure 60% 10% 7% 9% 33% 81% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Approve Disapprove Unsure Abercrombie Positive 50% 16% 32% Negative 38% 76% 32% Unsure 11% 8% 36% Total 100% 100% 100% Ige * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Approve Disapprove Unsure Ige Positive 29% 40% 14% Negative 13% 17%   Unsure 58% 43% 86% Total 100% 100% 100% Governor * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Approve Disapprove Unsure Governor Abercrombie 44% 15% 23% Ige 31% 62% 14% Unsure 25% 22% 64% Total 100% 100% 100%
    • 7 Demographic Crosstabs Abercrombie * Sex Crosstabulation % within Sex Abercrombie Total Positive Negative Unsure Male 38% 51% 11% 100% Sex Female Refused 46%   42% 100% 11%   100% 100% Abercrombie * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age Fifty Under and 50 over Abercrombie Positive 43% 43% Negative 48% 46% Unsure 9% 11% Total 100% 100% Abercrombie * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasi Japanes Filipin Hawaiia Chines Hispani Other/ an e o n e c Mixed AbercrombiPositive 55% 31% 44% 45% 29% 40% 38% e Negativ 38% 53% 43% 45% 61% 60% 53% e Unsure 7% 16% 13% 10% 11% 0% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    • 8 Abercrombie * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Abercrombie Positive Negative Unsure Total Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 37% 46% 38% 63% 39% 53% 45% 46% 24% 39% 10% 9% 16% 13% 22% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Abercrombie Positive Negative Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 62% 34% 24% 31% 28% 57% 71% 46% 10% 9% 5% 23% 100% 100% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Abercrombie Positive Negative Unsure Total Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 49% 22% 21% 62% 38% 76% 70% 31% 12% 2% 8% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Education No HS College Some/Assoc/ Grad degree graduate Graduate Voc Degree Refused Abercrombie Positive 40% 45% 42% 40% 46% 50% Negative 33% 41% 49% 44% 50% 21% Unsure 27% 15% 9% 15% 4% 29% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    • 9 Abercrombie * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Refused Abercrombie Positive 41% 48% 24% Negative 48% 43% 35% Unsure 11% 9% 41% Total 100% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Union_Family Crosstabulation % within Union_Family Union_Family Yes No Refused Abercrombie Positive 33% 51% 29% Negative 58% 38% 62% Unsure 10% 11% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% Abercrombie * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Abercrombie Total Positive Negative Unsure Income Under $50,000 - $100,000 $50,000 $99,999 or more Refused 44% 45% 46% 36% 39% 49% 50% 45% 17% 6% 5% 19% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    • 10 Ige * Sex Crosstabulation % within Sex Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Male 31% 14% 55% 100% Sex Female Refused 31% 50% 13% 50% 56%   100% 100% Ige * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Age Under Fifty and 50 over 30% 33% 18% 12% 52% 56% 100% 100% Ige * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasia Japanes Hawaiia Chines Hispani n e Filipino n e c Ige Positive 21% 52% 28% 20% 29% 50% Negativ 15% 5% 26% 18% 4%   e Unsure 64% 44% 45% 61% 68% 50% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Other/ Mixed 22% 22% 55% 100% Ige * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Ige Total Positive Negative Unsure Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 41% 34% 17% 13% 11% 12% 14% 15% 18% 9% 48% 52% 68% 68% 80% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    • 11 Ige * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 28% 35% 42% 21% 16% 12% 14% 9% 56% 53% 43% 70% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ige * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Ige Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 32% 34% 29% 15% 13% 12% 19% 8% 55% 54% 52% 77% 100% 100% 100% 100% Positive Negative Unsure Total Ige * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Education Ige Total Positive Negative Unsure No HS College Grad degree graduate Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc Degree Refused 33% 23% 33% 28% 34% 54%   11% 16% 9% 18%   67% 66% 51% 63% 47% 46% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ige * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Refused Ige Positive 31% 31% 31% Negative 16% 10% 6% Unsure 53% 59% 63% Total 100% 100% 100%
    • 12 Ige * Union_Family Crosstabulation % within Union_Family Union_Family Yes No Refused Ige Positive 33% 29% 43% Negative 15% 13% 10% Unsure 52% 58% 48% Total 100% 100% 100% Ige * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Income Under $50,000 - $100,000 $50,000 $99,999 or more Refused 21% 30% 40% 37% 12% 13% 21% 8% 67% 57% 39% 55% 100% 100% 100% 100% Governor * Sex Crosstabulation % within Sex Governor Total Abercrombie Ige Unsure Male 35% 38% 27% 100% Sex Female Refused 39%   37% 50% 24% 50% 100% 100% Governor * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age Under Fifty and 50 over Governor Abercrombie 38% 38% Ige 31% 40% Unsure 31% 22% Total 100% 100%
    • 13 Governor * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasi Japanes Filipin Hawaiia Chines Hispani Other/ an e o n e c Mixed Governor GovernorAbercrom 49% 24% 38% 41% 26% 40% 40% bie Ige 29% 51% 21% 35% 48% 60% 35% Unsure 23% 26% 40% 24% 26% 0% 25% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Governor * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Governor Total Abercrombie Ige Unsure Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 33% 40% 31% 58% 24% 45% 34% 34% 23% 24% 22% 27% 34% 18% 53% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    • 14 Governor * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Governor Abercrombie Ige Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure 53% 32% 25% 21% 19% 47% 63% 36% 29% 21% 12% 43% 100% 100% 100% 100% Governor * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Governor Abercrombie Ige Unsure Total Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 42% 21% 25% 42% 32% 64% 46% 33% 26% 14% 29% 25% 100% 100% 100% 100% Governor * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Education No HS College Some/Assoc/ Grad degree graduate Graduate Voc Degree Refused Governor Abercrombie 40% 34% 39% 33% 42% 43% Ige 20% 38% 38% 41% 34% 14% Unsure 40% 28% 23% 27% 24% 43% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Governor * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Refused Governor Abercrombie 37% 41% 24% Ige 40% 32% 29% Unsure 24% 28% 47% Total 100% 100% 100%
    • 15 Governor * Union_Family Crosstabulation % within Union_Family Union_Family Yes No Refused Governor Abercrombie 30% 44% 14% Ige 42% 32% 57% Unsure 28% 24% 29% Total 100% 100% 100% Governor * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Governor Total Abercrombie Ige Unsure Income Under $50,000 - $100,000 $50,000 $99,999 or more Refused 40% 41% 40% 25% 29% 38% 42% 40% 30% 21% 18% 35% 100% 100% 100% 100%