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Growing Prosperity in Austin
IREM Austin
Monthly Networking Luncheon
Westwood Country Club
January 14, 2014
Growing Prosperity in Austin
• Sources

• Reasons
• Challenges

• Opportunities

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in A...
GDP Growth
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%

Austin MSA

US (MSAs)

Austin MSA real (inflation-adjusted) ...
Job Growth
6%
5%

4%
3%

Austin MSA
Texas

2%
1%
0%

US

-1%

-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%

Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) am...
Net Migration (Move In–Move Out)
Travis County gained (net) approximately 5,000 people per year
from other states during 1...
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map ...
Net Migration, Different State
12,000
10,000
8,000

Travis County

CA 15%
IL 7%
FL 6%

CA 35%
LA 23%
FL 5%

CA 42%

CA 24%...
78701 Population (2010): 6,841

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity ...
Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)
Maricopa, AZ
Wake, NC
Tarrant, TX

Orleans, LA
King, WA
Travis, TX

9,840

Fulton, GA
7,573
Y...
Post-Recession Leaders (2010)
Harris, TX
Bexar, TX
El Paso, CO
Dallas, TX
Tarrant, TX
Fulton, GA
Fairfax, VA
Travis, TX
Pi...
Popular Neighborhoods (2007-11)
1. Steiner Ranch

7. North Loop

2. Milwood/Arrowwood

8. Onion Creek

3. North Burnet/Dom...
Net Migration (Total) – HH Income
$500

Travis County

$400
$300
$200

$100
$0
-$100

Average (06-10): $321M

-$200
-$300
...
How long will it last?
$100,000+
% Total HHs

$200,000+
% Total HHs

Med List Price
Per Sq Ft

Med List Rent
Per Sq Ft

Sa...
Per Capita Income (Travis, %US)
130
120
110

100
103.67
1996

90

103.94
2011

80

1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983...
% Pop ≥ Associate’s Degree (Austin, 2012)
Asian

75%

White

65%

Black

23%

Hispanic/Latino

23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

70%...
Average Monthly Earnings (Travis, 2012Q2)
Asian

$5,850

White

$5,387

Black

$3,371

Hispanic/Latino

$1,000

$3,272

$2...
Key Takeaways
• Economic growth and migration are fueling
unprecedented wealth creation in Austin
• Disparity in education...
Brian Kelsey
Civic Analytics LLC
3420 Executive Center Drive
Suite 300
Austin, TX 78731
brian@civicanalytics.com
512-731-7...
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Growing Prosperity in Austin

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Presentation on Austin economy to IREM Austin Chapter on January 14, 2014

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Transcript of "Growing Prosperity in Austin"

  1. 1. Growing Prosperity in Austin IREM Austin Monthly Networking Luncheon Westwood Country Club January 14, 2014
  2. 2. Growing Prosperity in Austin • Sources • Reasons • Challenges • Opportunities January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  3. 3. GDP Growth 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Austin MSA US (MSAs) Austin MSA real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B). Austin MSA GDP almost certainly surpassed $100 billion mark in 2013, which would rank 32nd largest among all US MSAs. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data in 2013 dollars. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  4. 4. Job Growth 6% 5% 4% 3% Austin MSA Texas 2% 1% 0% US -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large metros (500,000+ population) between 2001 and 2012. Job growth averaged 13,500 net increase annually. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  5. 5. Net Migration (Move In–Move Out) Travis County gained (net) approximately 5,000 people per year from other states during 1996-2010. Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows data for Travis County, 2010 tax year. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  6. 6. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.
  7. 7. Net Migration, Different State 12,000 10,000 8,000 Travis County CA 15% IL 7% FL 6% CA 35% LA 23% FL 5% CA 42% CA 24% FL 10% IL 7% 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 Average (06-10): 8,820 Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10). January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  8. 8. 78701 Population (2010): 6,841 Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  9. 9. Pre-Recession Leaders (2007) Maricopa, AZ Wake, NC Tarrant, TX Orleans, LA King, WA Travis, TX 9,840 Fulton, GA 7,573 York, SC Net migration from different state 0 5,000 10,000 Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
  10. 10. Post-Recession Leaders (2010) Harris, TX Bexar, TX El Paso, CO Dallas, TX Tarrant, TX Fulton, GA Fairfax, VA Travis, TX Pinal, AZ Wake, NC Orleans, LA Denver, CO Williamson, TX 7,030 3,943 0 5,000 Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin Net migration from different state 10,000 15,000 20,000
  11. 11. Popular Neighborhoods (2007-11) 1. Steiner Ranch 7. North Loop 2. Milwood/Arrowwood 8. Onion Creek 3. North Burnet/Domain 9. Barton Creek/Hills 4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake 10. Old West Austin 5. Canyon Creek 11. Northwest Hills 6. Hyde Park 12. Preston Oaks Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  12. 12. Net Migration (Total) – HH Income $500 Travis County $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 -$100 Average (06-10): $321M -$200 -$300 Source: Internal Revenue Service, Adjusted Gross Income, Net In-Migration Less Out-Migration in Travis County, All Sources. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  13. 13. How long will it last? $100,000+ % Total HHs $200,000+ % Total HHs Med List Price Per Sq Ft Med List Rent Per Sq Ft San Francisco 39% 13% $735 $3.69 Washington DC 36% 12% $442 $2.80 Seattle 31% 8% $346 $2.09 Boston 26% 7% $427 $3.02 New York 24% 7% $447 $3.88 Austin 24% 6% $159 $1.27 Portland 24% 5% $212 $1.34 Raleigh 23% 5% $111 $0.78 Charlotte 22% 6% $100 $0.77 Denver 22% 6% $232 $1.43 Nashville 15% 3% $103 $0.89 City Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012, Zillow (November 2013). January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  14. 14. Per Capita Income (Travis, %US) 130 120 110 100 103.67 1996 90 103.94 2011 80 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 70 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  15. 15. % Pop ≥ Associate’s Degree (Austin, 2012) Asian 75% White 65% Black 23% Hispanic/Latino 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 70% of projected job openings (2013-2023) in Travis County paying median wage of at least $18 per hour will require a postsecondary credential or degree. 40% 50% 60% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012. Data is for population age 25+. Data on jobs from EMSI. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin 70% 80%
  16. 16. Average Monthly Earnings (Travis, 2012Q2) Asian $5,850 White $5,387 Black $3,371 Hispanic/Latino $1,000 $3,272 $2,000 $3,000 Source: US Census Bureau (LEHD, QWI) January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin According to MIT’s Living Wage Calculator, a family with one adult and one child living in Travis County requires $3,390 in pre-tax monthly income to meet basic needs. $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000
  17. 17. Key Takeaways • Economic growth and migration are fueling unprecedented wealth creation in Austin • Disparity in educational attainment is most serious threat to Austin’s future prosperity • Time for big ideas & stretch goals is now January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
  18. 18. Brian Kelsey Civic Analytics LLC 3420 Executive Center Drive Suite 300 Austin, TX 78731 brian@civicanalytics.com 512-731-7851 http://civicanalytics.com @civicanalytics January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
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