US: The “Great Reset” 2007-2009 Housing collapse Financial crisis 5-7 million jobs lost 10% unemployment Spending down Foreclosures
US: Economic recovery 2009-today GDP is growing again, but no labor market improvements in many regions Housing prices are stabilizing, but rising foreclosures in many markets Uncertainty causing many consumers and investors to stay on sidelines
Austin’s flirtation with recession According to Moody’s Economy.com, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos entered recession in February 2009, more than a year after the U.S. economy (December 2007). The recession lasted only six months in Austin. Economic indicators started turning around in August 2009. The U.S. recession officially ended in June 2009. Source: MSNBC Adversity Index, Moody’s Economy.com
Brookings: Austin in top 20 metros Rankings for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (100 largest metro areas) Employment growth #4 Unemployment rate #13 Gross metro product #2 Housing prices #10 Real-estate owned properties #30 Source: Brookings MetroMonitor, September 2010
Employment growth Average: 4.7% 2008: 3.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Population growth Average: 3.8% 2008: 3.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Moody’s: Back to jobs peak mid-2011 Source: USA Today, Moody’s Economy.com
Austin: Job growth by major industry Source: EMSI. Selected industries based on job growth 2002-09. Not all industries shown.
Austin: Job growth by occupation Source: EMSI. Selected occupations based on job growth 2002-09. Not all occupations shown.
Income stagnation U.S. PCI 2009: 90.8% (lowest since 1989) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMSI
Quality of life Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Median wage (all jobs): $38,002 Growing jobs (2002-09): $32,458 Declining jobs (2002-09): $27,851 Source: EMSI, Center for Public Policy Priorities. Wages are from Family Budget Estimator and show what’s required to meet basic needs in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos assuming employer sponsored health insurance.
Workforce competitiveness Texas State Data Center projects that 63% of total population growth in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos during 2010-2040 will be due to growth among Hispanics. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos will be majority-minority sometime around 2025. Hispanics will be the largest race/ethnicity group in 2040. 79% of new high-wage jobs (pay > overall median wage) during 2010-2020 will require a postsecondary degree. % Population Age 25+ by Race/Ethnicity in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos with a Postsecondary Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Data Center, EMSI
Sustainable communities Median multiple is the ratio of median residential sales price to median annual wage by zip code. In other words, do jobs located in the zip code pay enough to give workers an opportunity to live near where they work? Historically, the median multiple for home prices to household income is in the range of 3.0 for most areas. Source: EMSI, Decision Data Resources, Austin Board of REALTORS. Residential median sales prices are YTD 2010 as of July. Map shows only those zip codes with at least 10 home sales.
Discussion How can we ensure that Austin remains among the leading U.S. regions? What can we do to help more people participate in Austin’s success? What changes will be needed?
Brian Kelsey 512-731-7851 email@example.com Special thanks to EMSI, Decision Data Resources, and Austin Board of REALTORS for making data available for this presentation. http://civicanalytics.com http://economicmodeling.com @brianjkelsey facebook.com/economicdevelopment http://www.decisiondata.net linkedin.com/in/brianjkelsey http://www.abor.com