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Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
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Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy

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Brian Kelsey's presentation to Leadership Austin on October 26, 2010

Brian Kelsey's presentation to Leadership Austin on October 26, 2010

Published in: Business, Technology
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  • 1. Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy
    Leadership Austin
    October 26, 2010
    Brian Kelsey, Presenter
  • 2. Overview
    Pre- and post-recession economy
    Equity and sustainability
    Discussion
  • 3. US: Depth of the Great Recession
  • 4. US: Growth driving growth 2002-07
    Source: EMSI. Industries selected based on job growth. Not all industries shown.
  • 5. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 6. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 7. US: The “Great Reset” 2007-2009
    Housing collapse
    Financial crisis
    5-7 million jobs lost
    10% unemployment
    Spending down
    Foreclosures
  • 8. US: Economic recovery 2009-today
    GDP is growing again, but no labor market improvements in many regions
    Housing prices are stabilizing, but rising foreclosures in many markets
    Uncertainty causing many consumers and investors to stay on sidelines
  • 9. Austin rated top U.S. city for 2010
  • 10. Source: http://www.pswrealestate.com/blog/2010/05/austins-2010-accolades
    Source: http://www.pswrealestate.com/blog/2010/05/austins-2010-accolades
  • 11. Austin’s flirtation with recession
    According to Moody’s Economy.com, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos entered recession in February 2009, more than a year after the U.S. economy (December 2007). The recession lasted only six months in Austin. Economic indicators started turning around in August 2009. The U.S. recession officially ended in June 2009.
    Source: MSNBC Adversity Index, Moody’s Economy.com
  • 12. Brookings: Austin in top 20 metros
    Rankings for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (100 largest metro areas)
    Employment growth #4
    Unemployment rate #13
    Gross metro product #2
    Housing prices #10
    Real-estate owned properties #30
    Source: Brookings MetroMonitor, September 2010
  • 13. Employment growth
    Average: 4.7%
    2008: 3.3%
    Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 14. Population growth
    Average: 3.8%
    2008: 3.7%
    Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 15. Moody’s: Back to jobs peak mid-2011
    Source: USA Today, Moody’s Economy.com
  • 16. Austin: Job growth by major industry
    Source: EMSI. Selected industries based on job growth 2002-09. Not all industries shown.
  • 17. Austin: Job growth by occupation
    Source: EMSI. Selected occupations based on job growth 2002-09. Not all occupations shown.
  • 18. Income stagnation
    U.S. PCI
    2009: 90.8%
    (lowest since 1989)
    Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMSI
  • 19. Quality of life
    Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos
    Median wage (all jobs): $38,002
    Growing jobs (2002-09): $32,458
    Declining jobs (2002-09): $27,851
    Source: EMSI, Center for Public Policy Priorities. Wages are from Family Budget Estimator and show what’s required to meet basic needs in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos assuming employer sponsored health insurance.
  • 20. Workforce competitiveness
    Texas State Data Center projects that 63% of total population growth in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos during 2010-2040 will be due to growth among Hispanics.
    Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos will be majority-minority sometime around 2025. Hispanics will be the largest race/ethnicity group in 2040.
    79% of new high-wage jobs (pay > overall median wage) during 2010-2020 will require a postsecondary degree.
    % Population Age 25+ by Race/Ethnicity in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos with a Postsecondary Degree
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Data Center, EMSI
  • 21. Educational attainment
    Source: ESRI
  • 22. Sustainable communities
    Median multiple is the ratio of median residential sales price to median annual wage by zip code. In other words, do jobs located in the zip code pay enough to give workers an opportunity to live near where they work?
    Historically, the median multiple for home prices to household income is in the range of 3.0 for most areas.
    Source: EMSI, Decision Data Resources, Austin Board of REALTORS. Residential median sales prices are YTD 2010 as of July. Map shows only those zip codes with at least 10 home sales.
  • 23. Discussion
    How can we ensure that Austin remains among the leading U.S. regions?
    What can we do to help more people participate in Austin’s success?
    What changes will be needed?
  • 24. Brian Kelsey
    512-731-7851
    brian@civicanalytics.com
    Special thanks to EMSI, Decision Data Resources, and Austin Board of REALTORS for making data available for this presentation.
    http://civicanalytics.com
    http://economicmodeling.com
    @brianjkelsey
    facebook.com/economicdevelopment
    http://www.decisiondata.net
    linkedin.com/in/brianjkelsey
    http://www.abor.com

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