Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy<br />Leadership Austin<br />October 26, 2010<...
Overview<br />Pre- and post-recession economy<br />Equity and sustainability<br />Discussion<br />
US: Depth of the Great Recession<br />
US: Growth driving growth 2002-07<br />Source: EMSI. Industries selected based on job growth. Not all industries shown.<br />
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
US: The “Great Reset” 2007-2009<br />Housing collapse<br />Financial crisis<br />5-7 million jobs lost<br />10% unemployme...
US: Economic recovery 2009-today<br />GDP is growing again, but no labor market improvements in many regions<br />Housing ...
Austin rated top U.S. city for 2010<br />
Source: http://www.pswrealestate.com/blog/2010/05/austins-2010-accolades<br />Source: http://www.pswrealestate.com/blog/20...
Austin’s flirtation with recession<br />According to Moody’s Economy.com, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos entered recession i...
Brookings: Austin in top 20 metros<br />Rankings for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (100 largest metro areas)<br />Employmen...
Employment growth<br />Average: 4.7%<br />2008: 3.3%<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
Population growth<br />Average: 3.8%<br />2008: 3.7%<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
Moody’s: Back to jobs peak mid-2011<br />Source: USA Today, Moody’s Economy.com<br />
Austin: Job growth by major industry<br />Source: EMSI. Selected industries based on job growth 2002-09. Not all industrie...
Austin: Job growth by occupation<br />Source: EMSI. Selected occupations based on job growth 2002-09. Not all occupations ...
Income stagnation<br />U.S. PCI<br />2009: 90.8%<br />(lowest since 1989)<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, E...
Quality of life<br />Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos<br />Median wage (all jobs): 	$38,002<br />Growing jobs (2002-09): 	$32,...
Workforce competitiveness<br />Texas State Data Center projects that 63% of total population growth in Austin-Round Rock-S...
Educational attainment<br />Source: ESRI<br />
Sustainable communities<br />Median multiple is the ratio of median residential sales price to median annual wage by zip c...
Discussion<br />How can we ensure that Austin remains among the leading U.S. regions?<br />What can we do to help more peo...
Brian Kelsey<br />512-731-7851<br />brian@civicanalytics.com<br />Special thanks to EMSI, Decision Data Resources, and Aus...
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Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy

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Brian Kelsey's presentation to Leadership Austin on October 26, 2010

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Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy

  1. 1. Austin: Navigating the “Great Reset” and Creating a More Sustainable Economy<br />Leadership Austin<br />October 26, 2010<br />Brian Kelsey, Presenter<br />
  2. 2. Overview<br />Pre- and post-recession economy<br />Equity and sustainability<br />Discussion<br />
  3. 3. US: Depth of the Great Recession<br />
  4. 4. US: Growth driving growth 2002-07<br />Source: EMSI. Industries selected based on job growth. Not all industries shown.<br />
  5. 5. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
  6. 6. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
  7. 7. US: The “Great Reset” 2007-2009<br />Housing collapse<br />Financial crisis<br />5-7 million jobs lost<br />10% unemployment<br />Spending down<br />Foreclosures <br />
  8. 8. US: Economic recovery 2009-today<br />GDP is growing again, but no labor market improvements in many regions<br />Housing prices are stabilizing, but rising foreclosures in many markets<br />Uncertainty causing many consumers and investors to stay on sidelines<br />
  9. 9. Austin rated top U.S. city for 2010<br />
  10. 10. Source: http://www.pswrealestate.com/blog/2010/05/austins-2010-accolades<br />Source: http://www.pswrealestate.com/blog/2010/05/austins-2010-accolades<br />
  11. 11. Austin’s flirtation with recession<br />According to Moody’s Economy.com, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos entered recession in February 2009, more than a year after the U.S. economy (December 2007). The recession lasted only six months in Austin. Economic indicators started turning around in August 2009. The U.S. recession officially ended in June 2009.<br />Source: MSNBC Adversity Index, Moody’s Economy.com<br />
  12. 12. Brookings: Austin in top 20 metros<br />Rankings for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (100 largest metro areas)<br />Employment growth #4<br />Unemployment rate #13<br />Gross metro product #2<br />Housing prices #10<br />Real-estate owned properties #30<br />Source: Brookings MetroMonitor, September 2010<br />
  13. 13. Employment growth<br />Average: 4.7%<br />2008: 3.3%<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
  14. 14. Population growth<br />Average: 3.8%<br />2008: 3.7%<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
  15. 15. Moody’s: Back to jobs peak mid-2011<br />Source: USA Today, Moody’s Economy.com<br />
  16. 16. Austin: Job growth by major industry<br />Source: EMSI. Selected industries based on job growth 2002-09. Not all industries shown.<br />
  17. 17. Austin: Job growth by occupation<br />Source: EMSI. Selected occupations based on job growth 2002-09. Not all occupations shown.<br />
  18. 18. Income stagnation<br />U.S. PCI<br />2009: 90.8%<br />(lowest since 1989)<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMSI<br />
  19. 19. Quality of life<br />Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos<br />Median wage (all jobs): $38,002<br />Growing jobs (2002-09): $32,458<br />Declining jobs (2002-09): $27,851<br />Source: EMSI, Center for Public Policy Priorities. Wages are from Family Budget Estimator and show what’s required to meet basic needs in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos assuming employer sponsored health insurance. <br />
  20. 20. Workforce competitiveness<br />Texas State Data Center projects that 63% of total population growth in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos during 2010-2040 will be due to growth among Hispanics.<br />Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos will be majority-minority sometime around 2025. Hispanics will be the largest race/ethnicity group in 2040.<br />79% of new high-wage jobs (pay > overall median wage) during 2010-2020 will require a postsecondary degree. <br />% Population Age 25+ by Race/Ethnicity in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos with a Postsecondary Degree<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Data Center, EMSI<br />
  21. 21. Educational attainment<br />Source: ESRI<br />
  22. 22. Sustainable communities<br />Median multiple is the ratio of median residential sales price to median annual wage by zip code. In other words, do jobs located in the zip code pay enough to give workers an opportunity to live near where they work?<br />Historically, the median multiple for home prices to household income is in the range of 3.0 for most areas.<br />Source: EMSI, Decision Data Resources, Austin Board of REALTORS. Residential median sales prices are YTD 2010 as of July. Map shows only those zip codes with at least 10 home sales.<br />
  23. 23. Discussion<br />How can we ensure that Austin remains among the leading U.S. regions?<br />What can we do to help more people participate in Austin’s success?<br />What changes will be needed?<br />
  24. 24. Brian Kelsey<br />512-731-7851<br />brian@civicanalytics.com<br />Special thanks to EMSI, Decision Data Resources, and Austin Board of REALTORS for making data available for this presentation.<br />http://civicanalytics.com<br />http://economicmodeling.com<br />@brianjkelsey<br />facebook.com/economicdevelopment<br />http://www.decisiondata.net<br />linkedin.com/in/brianjkelsey<br />http://www.abor.com<br />

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