Austin: Growth, Change & Promise

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Brian Kelsey's presentation at 2014 City of Austin Fair Housing Conference

Brian Kelsey's presentation at 2014 City of Austin Fair Housing Conference

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  • 1. Austin: Growth, Change & Promise April 2014
  • 2. 1. How fast is Austin growing? 2. Where are people coming from? 3. Why is Austin so attractive? 4. Is everybody benefiting? 5. What can I do? 2 Presentation Overview
  • 3. How fast is Austin growing? 3
  • 4. 4 Rank Metro Area Population 2013 Pop Change 2000-13 Rate 1 Houston 6,313,158 1,595,651 34% 2 Dallas 6,810,913 1,575,528 30% 3 Atlanta 5,522,942 1,229,467 29% 4 Phoenix 4,398,762 1,125,285 34% 5 Riverside 4,380,878 1,103,856 34% 6 Washington DC 5,949,859 1,086,471 22% 7 New York 19,949,502 969,492 5% 8 Miami 5,828,191 802,296 16% 9 Los Angeles 13,131,431 738,727 6% 10 Las Vegas 2,027,868 633,959 45% 11 Austin 1,883,051 618,101 49% Population growth in Austin keeping pace with much larger regions Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.
  • 5. 5 Metro Area 2000-13 Rank Metro Area 2009-13 Rank Raleigh 51% 1 Austin 12% 1 Austin 49% 2 Raleigh 9% 2 Las Vegas 45% 3 Houston 8% 3 Orlando 37% 4 San Antonio 8% 4 Charlotte 35% 5 Denver 7% 5 Phoenix 34% 6 Dallas 7% 6 Houston 34% 7 Orlando 7% 7 Riverside 34% 8 Washington DC 7% 8 San Antonio 32% 9 Oklahoma City 7% 9 Dallas 30% 10 Charlotte 6% 10 Austin is fastest growing large region since recession ended in 2009 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.
  • 6. 6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 City of Austin Austin MSA Population Growth by Decade, 1940-2010 Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014. Austin MSA pop growth has outpaced Austin (city) growth since 1960s
  • 7. 7 0.9 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.1 3.5 2.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Population Growth Ratio, 1940-2014 Austin MSA / City of Austin Austin MSA adding nearly three residents for every one new resident in Austin (city) Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.
  • 8. 8 41% 52% 62% 63% 59% 55% 53% 46% 45% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 City of Austin Share of Austin MSA Population 1940-2014 Austin (city) share of Austin MSA pop appears to have stopped falling Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.
  • 9. 9 ZIP Pop Change 2000-10 78748 15,290 78717 14,390 78732 10,431 78747 9,729 78754 9,614 78738 9,294 78744 9,114 78739 8,149 78726 6,642 78735 6,460 Fastest growing communities within Austin largely on periphery of city Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
  • 10. 10 ZIP Pop Growth 2000-10 78738 327% 78732 287% 78725 231% 78747 192% 78754 177% 78717 177% 78726 103% 78739 94% 78701 77% 78737 70% Downtown & other portions of central Austin rank highly on growth rate (%) Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
  • 11. Where are people coming from? 11
  • 12. 12 Majority of population growth due to net migration of HHs to Austin MSA Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among all metro areas (MSA). Rank Metro Area Net Migration 2013 Share of Total Pop Growth 1 Houston 81,124 59% 2 Dallas 52,142 48% 3 Miami 42,484 65% 4 Washington DC 41,366 47% 5 Phoenix 40,451 57% 6 San Francisco 40,283 65% 7 Seattle 34,970 61% 8 Orlando 32,041 72% 9 Denver 31,404 62% 10 Austin 31,230 65% Year Net Movers Austin MSA Per Day 2013 86 2012 99 2011 97
  • 13. 13 Majority of net migration to Austin MSA coming from rest of U.S. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among all metro areas (MSA). Rank Metro Area Net Migration 2013 Domestic Share International Share 1 Houston 81,124 69% 31% 2 Dallas 52,142 63% 37% 3 Miami 42,484 -24% 124% 4 Washington DC 41,366 11% 89% 5 Phoenix 40,451 79% 21% 6 San Francisco 40,283 42% 58% 7 Seattle 34,970 51% 49% 8 Orlando 32,041 54% 46% 9 Denver 31,404 84% 16% 10 Austin 31,230 83% 17%
  • 14. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Travis County in 2010 tax year. 2010
  • 15. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2010 tax year. 2010
  • 16. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year. 2006
  • 17. 17 Households 2010 % Total HHs 2010 HH Income 2010 From Texas 20,780 61% $39,340 From Different State 13,007 38% $53,751 From International 244 1% $61,746 Nonmigrants * * $62,973 Most people moving to Austin come from other parts of Texas Of the total number of federal tax filers moving to Travis County every year, just 7% come from California—i.e. 9 people, on average, compared to the 86 people moving here from other parts of Texas. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year.
  • 18. 18 To Travis County 2010 County HHs HH Inc Williamson 6,059 $41,144 Hays 1,906 $36,045 Harris 1,886 $48,573 Bexar 1,335 $37,136 Dallas 1,139 $49,426 Bastrop 734 $29,946 Tarrant 599 $45,447 Collin 425 $54,792 Bell 415 $32,248 Denton 316 $41,189 Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by ESRI. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year.
  • 19. 19 California is a significant source of HH migration to Austin from other states Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year. Bold indicates origin counties with higher HH income in 2010 compared to nonmigrants in Travis County ($62,973). County HHs 2010 HH Inc 2010 Los Angeles, CA 537 $75,657 Cook, IL 369 $48,444 Maricopa, AZ 301 $47,086 San Diego, CA 267 $52,880 New York, NY 238 $84,819 King, WA 204 $65,774 Clark, NV 193 $41,217 Orange, CA 181 $78,850 Santa Clara, CA 175 $112,885 Kings, NY 166 $48,325 County HHs 2010 HH Inc 2010 San Francisco, CA 145 $108,848 Middlesex, MA 134 $71,089 Alameda, CA 127 $52,850 Washington, DC 110 $67,845 Hennepin, MN 94 $47,414 Miami-Dade, FL 89 $57,213 Multnomah, OR 89 $35,764 Bernalillo, NM 86 $44,255 Fairfax, VA 85 $138,776 Allegheny, PA 84 $50,714
  • 20. 20 Steiner Ranch is among most popular neighborhoods for out-of-state HHs 1. Steiner Ranch 2. Milwood/Arrowwood 3. North Burnet/Domain 4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake 5. Canyon Creek 6. Hyde Park 7. North Loop 8. Onion Creek 9. Barton Creek/Hills 10. Old West Austin 11. Northwest Hills 12. Preston Oaks Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011, Five-Year Estimates.
  • 21. • Most people moving to Austin come from other parts of Texas. • Most people moving to Austin from other states have lower HH income compared to existing residents. • Austin usually gains (net) residents from other large Texas counties & usually loses residents to nearby counties in the MSA (esp WilCo). 21 Migration myths stand in way of better understanding real drivers of growth Note: Austin here is shorthand for Travis County. Migration data from the IRS is not available for cities.
  • 22. • Generally, people moving from Austin to Williamson & Hays have higher income than movers from Williamson & Hays to Austin, but lower inc than existing HHs. • HHs moving to Austin report slightly fewer dependents than HHs moving away from Austin. • More data on age, education, income, race/ethnicity available from Census http://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov 22 Migration myths stand in way of better understanding real drivers of growth Note: Austin here is shorthand for Travis County. Migration data from the IRS is not available for cities.
  • 23. Why is Austin so attractive? 23
  • 24. 24 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US (MSA) Austin MSA Real Annual GDP Growth, 2002-12 Austin MSA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among metro areas with $50 billion or more. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars). Economic growth in Austin outpacing most other U.S. regions
  • 25. 25 Austin is leading all large metros in job growth (%) since recession ended Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Total Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with employment of 500,000 or more. Rank Metro Area Employment Dec 2013 Job Growth Jun 09-Dec 13 Rate 1 Austin 863,700 105,500 13.9% 2 Nashville 819,600 98,500 13.7% 3 San Jose 951,800 96,000 11.2% 4 Houston 2,812,700 283,200 11.2% 5 Charlotte 889,600 84,900 10.6% 6 Dallas 3,135,900 278,800 9.8% 7 Salt Lake City 662,100 54,900 9.0% 8 Oklahoma City 616,800 49,900 8.8% 9 Raleigh 538,100 41,300 8.3% 10 Denver 1,288,700 92,000 7.7%
  • 26. 26 Austin is still competitive on housing affordability but the gap is closing Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Total Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted. Zillow, February 2014. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with employment of 500,000 or more. Zillow rent/buy are median list prices. Rank Metro Area Job Growth Jun 09-Dec 13 Rent Per Sq Ft Central City Buy Per Sq Ft Central City 1 Austin 13.9% $1.27 $165 2 Nashville 13.7% $0.93 $105 3 San Jose 11.2% $2.15 $407 4 Houston 11.2% $1.19 $119 5 Charlotte 10.6% $0.77 $97 6 Dallas 9.8% $1.26 $132 7 Salt Lake City 9.0% $1.00 $188 8 Oklahoma City 8.8% $0.74 $90 9 Raleigh 8.3% $0.79 $114 10 Denver 7.7% $1.47 $246
  • 27. 27 Annual Openings 2009-13 Avg Wage Austin MSA Avg Wage Nation General &Operations Managers 723 $117,208 $114,858 Registered Nurses 706 $64,334 $67,933 Software Developers, Applications 646 $98,904 $93,288 Accountants and Auditors 644 $66,602 $71,032 Postsecondary Teachers 313 $71,302 $73,798 Electronic Equipment Assemblers 277 $27,165 $30,971 Management Analysts 230 $92,810 $88,067 Computer Programmers 228 $85,301 $78,270 Financial Analysts 160 $93,392 $89,398 Civil Engineers 126 $93,080 $84,136 Public Relations Specialists 111 $66,643 $61,984 Job openings at all skill levels fueling Austin’s population growth Source: EMSI
  • 28. 28 http://www.mindmeister.com/24358308/austin-entrepreneurship-scene Public/private partnerships improving Austin’s entrepreneurship ecosystem Number of small businesses in Austin MSA grew by 26% during 2000- 2010, compared to only 1% nationally.Source: US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses
  • 29. Is everybody benefiting? 29
  • 30. 30 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Williamson Hays Per Capita Income (US=100) Austin’s growing prosperity is not showing much ROI for PCI Travis Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • 31. 31 30% 45% 73% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Asian White Black or African American Hispanic or Latino Education inequality is a serious threat to Austin’s economic development % Pop Age 25+ in Austin MSA with No Completed Postsecondary Degree Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates.
  • 32. • 64% of job openings during 2013- 2023 paying a living wage for a family of one adult and one child ($17 per hour) will require a postsecondary degree. • 54% (519,000) of primary working age pop (25-64) in Austin MSA had no postsecondary in 2009. • Must do better job of preparing Austin residents for new jobs. 32 Source: Living wage from CPPP http://familybudgets.org. Assumes employer-paid health care & no savings. Workforce competitiveness is economic, social, and growth management issue
  • 33. What can I do? 33
  • 34. • Education—adopt regional SMART goal of completed postsecondary degree for majority of working age population. • Inclusion—leverage Dell Medical School opportunity to show how an innovation driven economic development strategy can achieve broad-based wealth gains. • Leadership—end veteran homelessness and reduce working poverty. 34 Austin must renew its commitment to being the home of “big ideas”
  • 35. @civicanalytics http://civicanalytics.com 512-731-7851 brian@civicanalytics.com Brian Kelsey, Principal & Founder 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108 Austin, Texas 78757