Understanding, predicting and optimizing
learning with Learning Analytics
Jingyan Lu, The University of Hong Kong
July 5th, LASI-Hong Kong
Assessment in the Education Triangle
Pellegrino, J. W., Chudowsky, N., & Glaser, R. (Eds.). (2002). Knowing what
students know: The science and design of educational assessment.
Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Conceptual Integration of Learning
Analytics and Assessment
Contribution of measurement
and statistical modeling in
X = T + E
Number of Stakeholder
Types of Stakeholder
Citing Case Information
Conceptual Assessment Framework:
Evidence Center Assessment Design (ECD)
Mislevey, R. J., Steinberg, L. S., Almond, R. G., Haertel, G. D., & Penuel, W. R. (2001).
Leverage points for improving education assessment. Princeton: Educational
Assessment in the 21st Century
“This evidence-based approach (Mislevy et al,
2003) is particularly relevant in the 21st century
technology rich classroom where student’s
use of technology tools for learning create a
multitude of data (e.g., artefacts, log data)
which can be mined, assessed, and presented in
ways that students and teachers can interpret it
to support learning.”
Hansen & Wasson (forthcoming)
Hansen, C. & Wasson, B. (forthcoming). Formaive e-assessment in the 21st century
Classroom. NEAR, Iceland, March 7/6/2013Jingyan Lu@hku
Online Learning Systems - online courses or
learning software or interactive environments that
use intelligent tutoring systems, virtual labs, or
simulations, such as Moodle.
Why: Big data
Application of LA—Predictive
Models in Instructional System
When are students ready to move onto the next topic?
When are students falling behind in a course?
When is a student at risk for not completing a course?
What grade is a student likely to get without
What is the best next course for a given student?
Should a student be referred to a counselor for help?
Why are we measuring (1):
Modeling and theory building
User knowledge modeling
User behavior modeling
User experience modeling
Examples of interactive
What are we measuring on
LMS: Student model
How peer assessment
Lu, J., & Zhang, Z. (2012). Understanding the effectiveness of online peer assessment: A path model.
Journal of Educational Computing Research, 46(3), 313-333.
Where do we measure it: Task
How do we measure: Evidence
Example 2: Modeling online
Critical reading behavior
Critical reading and writing argument
Building up model from
Reading to writing