Demographic transition model

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Demographic transition model

  1. 1. DemographicTransition ModelMs. Patten2010
  2. 2. Definition  The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.  By "model" we mean that it is an idealized picture of population change in these countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group and may not accurately describe all individual cases. Whether or not it applies to less developed societies today remains to be seen.http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
  3. 3. The Model
  4. 4. Stage One High birth rate: children necessary on farms, no reliable contraception  In India, an adult son was all that kept a widow from falling into destitution High death rate: poor medical knowledge, diet, water, sanitation, drought and disease
  5. 5. Stage One Preindustrial Premodern High Fluxuating  Slow growth
  6. 6. Stage Two High birth rate: children on farms, no reliable contraception Decreasing death rate: medical knowledge and diet improves, increased food production, improved sanitation and health  Leads to an increase in life expectancy Large increase in population
  7. 7. Stage Two Transitional Early Expanding Urbanizing or industrializing  Rapid growth
  8. 8. Stage Three Decreasing birth rate: industrialization, urbanization, access to contraception, increase in wages, education of women, smaller families needed as infant mortality drops Decreasing death rate: more medical advances, clean water, infant mortality decreases greatly Population growth begins to level off
  9. 9. Stage Three Industrial Late Expanding  Rapid to slowing growth
  10. 10. Stage Four Low birth rate: children cost money, contraception widely available, women gain status and control Low death rate: advanced medical services, good living conditions, increased health education  Some death rates do remain high because of obesity, low exercise and aeging populations Population decline
  11. 11. Stage Four Postindustrial Low Fluxuating  Zero to negative growth
  12. 12. The Model Revisited
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