Deloitte Workshop - Beyond BRIC

Eat or be eaten
8 December 2010

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Education
MBA, City University, London, 1996
B.com., Copenhagen Business School, 1988
The Yellow Book, London (IPOs at LSE), 1997
The Blue Book, London (M&A UK Rules & Regulations), 1997
Senior Credit Seminar, Citibank, London, 1988
Intermediate Credit Training Programme, Bank of America, 1986
CVHans Henrik Pontoppidan – Partner, Denmark (Copenhagen)
Financial adviser to
Capital raising for ChoosEV (Choose Electric Vehicle). Obtained the financing from the energy companies Syd Energy and SEAS-NVE
Dansk Kapitalanlæg in the sale of Danfysik to the Swiss listed company LEM
Naturgas Fyn in the sale of Switch.dk to NordjyskElhandel
Roskilde Municipality in the sale of the electricity activities out of Roskilde Forsyning to SEAS-NVE
Hillerød Municipality in the sale of the electricity activities out of HillerødEnergi to Energi Randers
DONG Energy in the preparation of information memorandum in the sale of the gas storage facility at Lille Torup
Altor Equity Partners in the acquisition of Wrist Group (bunker oil and ship chartering)
The City of Copenhagen and Copenhagen Energy (KøbenhavnsEnergi) in the sale of CE’s distribution and related activities including their 34% share in ENERGI E2 (power generation). Enterprise value of EUR 3.2bn
SEAS-NVE in their swap of their 24.07% share in ENERGI E2 to DONG A/S
Hilleroed, Elsinore and Roskilde Municipalities in the sale of their combined shareholdings in ENERGI E2
Copenhagen Energy in the sale of KE Partner A/S to Eltel Networks Oy (part of IndustriKapital)
ENERGI E2 and NarvikEnergi AS in the combined 28% investment in SaltenKraftsamband AS, Norway
ENERGI E2 in the acquisition of 33% of the shares in NarvikEnergi, Norway
Position
Joined Deloitte Corporate Finance in Copenhagen in 2001. Current position is Partner
Previous employment
Haburi.com, Copenhagen, CFO
Damgaard, Copenhagen, Director, Investor Relations
Sv. Handelsbanken, Executive Director
Unibank, Copenhagen, London, HK & PRC, Vice President
Bank of America NT&SA, Copenhagen, VP
Hambro’s Bank Plc, London, Credit Analysis
Eat or be eaten

Eat or be eatenWay forward; buy or be bought
8 December 2010

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Eat or be eaten
Capitalise on the next wave of M&ACross-border flow of funds – understanding the next wave of M&A
Key “next wave of M&A” themes
Secure energy, resource and food supplies
Infrastructure privatisation/acquisition
Brand acquisition
Global consolidation
Shift in consolidation activity and power to emerging markets
Exposure to high-growth economies for consumer business

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Eat or be eaten
New global challengers in key emerging markets will be the future leaders of strategic M&A activity
2009 BCG100 New Global Challengers
Chian Mobile
China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina)
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC)
China Shipping Group
COFCOCosco Group
Dalian Machine Tool Group
FAW Group
Galenz Group
Gree Electric
Lenovo Group
Li & Fung Group
Midea Group
Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. (SAIC)
Sinochem
Sinomach (China National Machinery Industry Corp.)
Sinosteel
Sinowel
Suntech Power
Techtronic industries
VTech Holdings
Wanxiang Group
ZTE
Argentina
Tenaris
Brazil
Camargo Correa Group
Coteminas
Embraer
Gerdau
JBS-Friboi
Marcopolo
Natura
Odebrecht
Pardigao
Petrobras
Sadia
Vale
Voterantim Group
WEG
Chile
CSAV
Falabella
China
Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco)
Baosteel Group
BYD Group
Chery Automobile
China Communications Constructions Company (CCCC)
China International Marine Containers Group (CIMC)
Hungary
Gideon Richter
India
Bajaj Auto
Bharat Forge
Cromto Greaves
Dr, Reddy’s Laboratories
Hindalco Industries
Infosys Technologies
Larsen & Toubro
Mahindra & Mahindra
Reliance Industries
Suzion Energy
Tata Chemicals
Tata Communications
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
Tata Motors
Tata Steel
Tata Tea
United Spirits
Vendante Resources
Videocon Industries
Wipro
Indonesia
IndofoodSuksesMakmur
Wilmar International
Kuwait
Agility
Malaysia
MISC Berhard
Petronas
Mexico
America Movil
Cemex
Femsa
Gruma
Grupo Bimbo
Mexichem
Nemark
Russia
Basic Element
Evraz Group
Gazprom
Lukoil
Severstai
Sisterma
Thailand
Charoen Pokphan Group
Thai Union Frozen Products
Turkey
Koc Holding
Sabanci Holding
United Arab Emirates
Dubai World
Emaar Properties
Emirates Airline
Etisalat
Source: BCG 2009 New Global Challengers Report

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Eat or be eaten
Capitalise on the next wave of M&AFinancial Advisory’s participation in the top global SWFs
North America SWF AUM = $56bn
Europe SWF AUM = $300bn
Asia SWF AUM = $829bn
Middle-East, Africa SWF AUM = $1,326bn
South America SWF AUM = $32bn
Australia/New Zealand SWF AUM = $50bn
Note: AUM is YE 2007

Eat or be eaten
Going...going...gone
Electronic displays
Computing and communications
Advanced materials
Energy storage and green energy production
Semiconductors
Already lost
“Fabless” chips
At risk
DRAMs
Flash memory chips
Already lost
Lithium-ion, lithium polymer and NiMH batteries for cell phones, portable consumer electronics, laptops and power tools
Advanced rechargeable batteries (NiMH and Li-ion) for hybrid vehicles
Crystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar cells, inverters and power semiconductors for solar panels
At risk
Thin-film solar cells (the newest solar-power technology)
Already lost
Desktop, notebook and netbook PCs
Low-end servers
Hard disk drivers
Consumer-networking gear such as routers, access points and home set-top boxes
At risk
Blade servers and midrange servers
Mobile handset
Optical-communication components
Core network equipment
Already lost
LCD monitors, TVs and handheld devices like mobile phones
Electrophoretic displays for Amazon’s Kindle e-reader and electronic signs
At risk
Next generation “electronic paper” displays for portable devices like e-readers, retail signs and advertising
Already lost
Advanced composites used in sporting goods and other consumer gear
Advanced ceramics
Integrated circuit packaging
At risk
Carbon composite components for aerospace and wind energy applications
Lighting
Already lost
Compact fluorescent lighting
At risk
LEDs for solid-state lighting, signs, indicators and backlights
Source: Harvard Business Review July-August 2009
Many high-tech products can no longer be manufactured in the US because critical knowledge, skills and suppliers of advanced materials, tools production equipment and components have been lost through outsourcing. Many other products are on the verge of the same fate.
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Eat or be eaten
Source: Harvard Business Review, December 2009
Mergers and AcquisitionsDo not integrate your acquisitions, partner with them

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Eat or be eaten
Source: Harvard Business Review, December 2009
Mergers and Acquisitions Who should partner?

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Eat or be eaten
Source: Harvard Business Review, May 2009
How emerging giants are rewriting the rules of M&ATwo approaches to M&A
Emerging giants use novel integration techniques and measure performance in light of long-term goals

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Eat or be eaten
A better approach to China’s markets
China’s 800-plus cities, 200 of them with population over 1 million are growing at different rates and changing in different ways
It is better to organise the markets as cluster groups of cities located within 300 kilometres of 1 or 2 hubs that each represents at least 1% of the country’s GDP
Changchunharbin
22m POP
3.6% GDP
9.3% proj. growth
Liao Central South
22m POP
34.3% GDP
7.6% proj.growth
Jingjinji
45m POP
10.8% GDP
10.5% proj. growth
Huhehaote
6m POP
1.3% GDP
9.9% proj. growth
Shanghai & Central
Shandong Byland
49m POP
9.0% GDP
10.3% proj. growth
Different cluster, different consumers
People in the Shanghai cluster are less confident about the future, are less likely to prefer Chinese brands and view savings as more important
Central
31m POP
3.8% GDP
13.1% proj. growth
Nanjing
24m POP
4.8% GDP
11% proj. growth
Hefei
23m POP
2.8% GDP
13.3% proj. growth
Shanghai
35m POP
10.8% GDP
8.7% proj.growth
Yangtze Mid/Lower
32m POP
4% GDP
12.1% proj. growth
Hangzhou
32m POP
6.7% GDP
10.5% proj. growth
Nanchang
12m POP
1.7% GDP
12.9% proj. growth
Hangzhou & Hefei
Chengdu
27m POP
3.2% GDP
13% proj. growth
Chongqing
11m POP
1.8% GDP
9.9% proj. growth
Established markets,up-and-comers
The Hefei cluster’s middle-class population is expected to explode by 2015
Coast West
31m POP
4.2% GDP
11% proj. growth
Guangzhou
30m POP
6.6% GDP
7.4% proj. growth
Kunming
10m POP
1.1% GDP
8.7% proj. growth
Shenzen
16m POP
4.3% GDP
7.5% proj. growth
Source: Havard Business review March 2010

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Eat or be eaten
Contact details
Financial Advisory ServicesWeidekampsgade 62300 Copenhagen SMail to:P.O. Box 16000900 Copenhagen C
Tel: +45 36 10 20 30Fax: +45 36 10 20 40www.deloitte.dk
Hans Henrik PontoppidanPartnerCorporate Finance
Direct:Mobile:hpontoppidan@deloitte.dk
+45 36 10 34 81
+45 20 20 04 81
Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

This document has been prepared by Deloitte Financial Advisory Services. Unless stated in this document the following shall apply to the information. The information, in particular the figures, data and schedules, are preliminary and for discussion purposes only. We do not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No independent verification exercise has been undertaken in respect of the information. All information, opinions and estimates in this document are Deloitte Financial Advisory Services judgment as at the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. While this information has been prepared in good faith, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made. The information in this document is supplied on the condition that Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, and any partner or employee of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, are not liable for any error or inaccuracy, whether negligently caused or otherwise, or for any loss or damage suffered by any person due to such an error, omission or inaccuracy as a result of such supply. This document is strictly for internal use and may not be reproduced, distributed or disclosed to any third party or referred to publicly without the prior written consent of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services.
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© 2010 Deloitte Financial Advisory Services A/S. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

Deloitte Workshop - Beyond BRIC

by Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

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