Smallholder agriculture & climate change
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Smallholder agriculture & climate change Smallholder agriculture & climate change Presentation Transcript

  • smallholder agriculture and climate change
    P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter
    Oxfam GB, London, January 2011
    • Objectives
    • Methodology View slide
    • Preliminary results
    Guatemala
    Bogotá
    Jamaica
    • Carbon Footprint online platform View slide
    • A Framework to adapt
    • What’s next?
    • CCAFS
    Outline
  • Objectives
    Perceptions
    “Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”
    Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010
  • Objectives
    Adaptation by agricultural communities to climate change through participatory & supply chain inclusive management
    Objectives
    • Quantify the exposure of crops (using crop prediction models)
    • Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)
    • Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)
    • Road map how adaptationstrategiescan be used(deriving a framework)
    Beneficiaries (case studies)
    • Guatemala frozen vegetable value chain
    • Bogotá metropolitan area small-scale farmers related food security
    • Jamaica fresh vegetable market for the hotel industry
  • Objectives
    Vulnerability to climate change (IPCC 2001)
    Vulnerability
    Degree of
    susceptibility and
    incapability of
    a system to confront
    adverse effects
    of climate
    Change
    (IPCC 2001)
    Exposure
    Degree to which a system is
    exposed to significant variation
    in climate
    Sensitivity
    Degree to which a system is
    positively or negatively affected
    by climate related stimulus
    Adaptive capacity
    The ability of a system to adapt
    to climate change
  • Methodology
    Overall Approach
    Output
    Process
    Inputs
    Statistical Downscaling of Climate Information
    Future Climates
    at Local scale
    Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs
    Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling
    Yield and Quality Impacts
    Production and Quality Data
    EXPOSURE
    Vulnerability Analyses
    Socio Economic Information
    ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
    Alternative Livelihood Strategies
    SENSITIVITY
  • Methodology
    Crop prediction models
    What is the suitability of a crop to the climate?
    Suitability to future climate(2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability
    Current Suitability
    Future Suitability 2050
    Change in Suitability to Future Climate (2050)
    Ecocrop Database (FAO)
    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)
    Ranges: Temperature and precipitation
    Precipitation
    Calibration with optimal points
    • Samples (GPS points)
    • Altitude range
    • Current Production Areas
    • Soil types
    Calibrated
    Temperature and
    Precipitación
    Ranges!
    WorldClim Climate Data
    http://worldclim.org
    More than 47,000 stations worldwide
    Temperature
  • Methodology
    DFID Livelihood Framework, Indicators on 5 Assets
    Human
    Social
    Physical
    • Access routes
    • Transport of products
    • Quality of accommodation
    • Access to formal and informal education
    • Level of knowledge of farming system management.
    • Health and feeding
    • Organization
    • Take decisions / Work distribution
    Natural
    Financial
    • Credit access
    • Variability of production
    • Price variability
    • Variability in annual revenue and income diversification
    • Access to markets
    • Access to alternative technology
    • Access and availability of water
    • Contamination
    • Conservation
    • Soil conditions and fertility
    See presentation A130 by Celi et al.
  • Preliminary results
    Guatemala’s Frozen Vegetable Value-chain
    Actually cultivated vegetables areas
  • Climate change
    predictions for 2050
    Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
    ExtractedClimateData for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, Sololá
    By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °C
    The maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C
    The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C
    By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters.
    “It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”
  • Exposure
    by changing crop suitability
  • Exposure
    … and limited land alternatives
  • Exposure
    by changing crop suitability
  • Exposure
    … and limited land alternatives
  • Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity
    Different Livelihood profiles
    ADAM SUMAR
  • Strategies
    Characterized from supply chain actors
    ALANEL, ADICOSO, ASDIC
    Producers, cooperatives
    • Installation of irrigation (Drill wells, rainwater harvesting)
    • Financing through credit (Inputs or capital for producers, infrastructure)
    • Educate producers (Reforestation, soil conservation, crop rotation, waste classification)
    Buen Sembrador
    • Reforestation
    • Crop rotation
    • Irrigation
    SUMAR, ADAM
    Chainactors
    Look forfundsfromorganizations(like IFAD, Oxfam, … )forirrigationsystems, inputs, trainings, infrastructure
  • Preliminary results
    Bogota’s food security
  • Climate change
    predictions for 2050
    Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
    Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
    By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
    The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
    The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
    By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
    “It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
  • Exposure
    by changing crop suitability of Potato
    Potato
  • Exposure
    by changing crop suitability of cassava
    Cassava
  • Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity
    Different Livelihood profiles
    Selling to consumers (MC)
    Selling to both
    Selling to intermediary
  • Strategies
    Characterized from supply chain actors
    3 most important strategies, mentioned by different groups:
    Information, training and awareness(about the problem and causes)
    Political incidence (local a global)
    Sustainable/ecological production
  • Preliminary results
    Jamaica’s hotel industry supplier
  • Climate change
    predictions for 2050
    Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
    Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica
    By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 1.7 °C
    The maximum annual temperature will rise 2°C
    The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.5°C
    By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 65 millimeters.
    “It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation all over the year.”
  • Exposure
    by changing crop suitability
  • Exposure
    … and limited land alternatives
    Bamboo
  • Exposure
    by changing crop suitability
  • Exposure
    … and limited land alternatives
    Bamboo
  • Vulnerability
    Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity
  • Strategies
    Characterized from supply chain actors
    3 most important mentioned by different groups:
    Education, training, capacity building, information sharing, research
    Legislation & government policies, marketing, financing
    Infrastructure development, organization, sustainable implementation
  • Framework
    Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts
    Analysis of food supply chains and business nature
    Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains
    Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns
    Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies
    People
    Importance
    Tools
    Business
    Institutions
    Resilience
    By means of:
    • Quantitative fieldwork at farm level
    • Geographic crop modelling
    • Participative workshops
    • Expert interviews with key supply chain actors
    • Fieldwork observations
    Exposure
    Adaptive Capacity
    Sensitivity
  • Framework
    Role and Nature of Food Supply Chains (FSCs)
    Purpose:
    • Characterisation: Understand the “nature of business”.
    • Reasons for adaptation: Check importance of FSC.
    • Evaluation of resilience: Will the FSC prevail against GCC impacts?
    Assess main objectives. Estimate importance of SCs for small farmers and other stakeholders
    • Assess main structures and dynamics and identify fragile and resilient parts for each SC
    How To Assess:
    • Keep it simple and general. Define supply chains via products and customers.
    • Compare FSCs among each other where possible.
  • Framework
    Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (1)
    Partial assessment of vulnerability
    Aims At:
    • Capture the elements of the problem: Exposure, affection, means to respond to GCC stresses.
    • Allocation of problem. Where is the least/highest need for adaptation?
    Exposure is found along a FSC when crops at farm level are exposed to GCC.
    How To Assess: crop suitability change
    Sensitivityis found along a FSC whenever producers are sensitive AND when up-the-road actors are
    affected by producer level sensitivity.
    How To Assess:
    • affection of 5 livelihood assets at farm level,
    • crop diversification ,
    • FSC dependence on small-farmers
    Adaptive capacityhas various components:
    How To Assess:
    • identify fixed patterns or entities enabling or inhibiting the capacity to respond
    • estimate assets -available and useful for adaptation- at non-farm level through FSC analysis.
  • Framework
    Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (2)
    Analyse overall results for vulnerability
    Purpose:
    • Overview of situation: Identifying cause of vulnerability.
    • Comparison: Location and characterization ofhot spots.
    Supplychainlevel
    Farm level
    How To Analyse:
    • Focus on cases in upper right corner (orange-red) Highest need for adaptation.
    • Relate to adaptive capacity  hot spots
    • Go back to partial analysis and find specific reasons for vulnerability at the hot spots
    • Respond to differences between farm and FSC level
    • Derive implications and suggestions
  • Framework
    Behaviour as Lever of Adaptation Strategies
    Purpose:
    • Understand people, entities and their reasons.
    • Revelation of action cycles and behavioral patterns enabling or obstructing adaptation.
    • Find the go-to points and derive incentives for change.
    Type 1: Push means of mediation and focus on endurance.
    Type 2: Find incentives to change behaviour, drop out of action cycles.
    Impediments to change:
    Uncertainty
    Cognitive problems and differing perceptions
    Lack of motive or incentives
    Lack of capacity
    Example:
    Suggestions:Strengthen sense of farming as important job via workshops with key farmers and local governments. Public promotion of farming as essential socio-economic profession required…
  • Framework
    Adaptation Strategies for Food Supply Chains
    Information assessment
    Combine results, assess specific situation:
    Derive feasible, generally held adaptationstrategies
    • Focus on objective to define strategy.
    • Tailor strategies to (types of) crops/products and/or the reported overall situation.
    Example: COL1
    • Integrate strategies among each other. Compare to similar FSCs.
    Push implementation (incentives) and measure results.
    • Measure in simple ways. Revise, draw conclusions for 5.
    Gradually adjust and deepen adaptation to specific regions.
    • Local adjustments of strategies where necessary.
    • Increase internalisation of adaptation.
    FEASIBLE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
  • Colaboration
    Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS
  • What’s next?
    Grounding climate change
    By 2030, site will have current conditions of site
    Site learn from site for 2030
    Site learn from site for 2030
    Site learn …
  • smallholder agriculture and climate change
    THANK YOU!
    p.laderach@cgiar.org
  • Characterized from supply chain actors
    Carbon Footprint
    online platform
  • Characterized from supply chain actors
    Carbon Footprint
    online platform
  • Characterized from supply chain actors
    Carbon Footprint
    online platform