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Presentation on Rio MeetingSummary and Summary report of the Security Council of the UN               Carolina Navarrete-F...
Climate Change as a                                               “Threat Multiplier”                                     ...
CC “Threat Multiplier”                       1. THREATS TO HUMAN WELL-BEINGAgriculture &              Water               ...
CC as a “Threat Multiplier”                                                     • Erode the revenue base of Governments   ...
CC as a “Threat Multiplier”                                    3. THREATS FROM UNCOORDINATED COPING  Population displaceme...
CC as a “Threat Multiplier”      4. THREATS TO                                        •     Possible conflicts of interest...
What should we do from the                      CDKN-Amazonia project?  The key towards effective solution of the problems...
Final Thoughts: What do we need?• Search thoroughly for the drivers aggravating the problems in the  securities (e.g. defo...
CIAT’s and GCP’s Work in this                         Direction…Understand how CC exacerbates food, water, energy, and hea...
OUR EXPERTS                                                    Mark Mulligan and Jorge Rubiano - Water Security           ...
Thank you!     a.jarvis@cgiar.org   c.navarrete@cgiar.org http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.orghttp://www.ccafs.cgiar.org
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Rio Meeting Summary and Summary Report of the Security Council of the UN

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  • Vulnerability: climate change threatens food security and human health, and increases human exposure to extreme eventsDevelopment: slowing down or reversing the development process  exacerbating vulnerability & undermining the capacity of States to maintain stability)Coping and security: migration, competition over natural resources , domestic and international conflictsStatelessness: disappearance of territory  implications for rights, security, and sovereigntyInternational conflict: there may be implications for international cooperation from climate change’s impact on shared or undemarcated international resources.
  • Agriculture and food security: Poor people particularly vulnerable (dependence on agriculture) -↓ Food Security -↑ Risk of hunger-↑ Malnutrition - Food shortages
  • CC can negatively impactgrowth, eroding the revenue base of the Governments and undermining governance capacities„Economies that are most heavily dependent on their primary sectors — notably agriculture, fisheries and forests — and those tropical countries which depend heavily on tourism, notably the small-island developing States, are most exposed to negative economic impacts. “„More developed and diversified economies are better able to absorb climate impacts because the economic output of sectors and locations with low levels of vulnerability to climate change greatly exceeds that of sectors and locations with high levels of vulnerability. “
  • Social insecurity directly linked with the other insecuritiesImprove accounting and accountability (for the private sector). Include externalities in the corporate, finance sector. Foster transparency. But we need to create legal frameworks to support this process. Institutions will work if they see the need and interdependencies. Cooperation built through a recognized common need. What are the conditions for success for specific institutional arrangements? Reinventing sovereignty:the stability of food and energy, etc provision is no longer only within borders. The deforestation drivers is not only within borders either. National defense and development agenda not only within borders. New forms of cooperation required. Security can’t be think of as before.
  • Social insecurity directly linked with the other insecuritiesImprove accounting and accountability (for the private sector). Include externalities in the corporate, finance sector. Foster transparency. But we need to create legal frameworks to support this process. Institutions will work if they see the need and interdependencies. Cooperation built through a recognized common need. What are the conditions for success for specific institutional arrangements? Reinventing sovereignty:the stability of food and energy, etc provision is no longer only within borders. The deforestation drivers is not only within borders either. National defense and development agenda not only within borders. New forms of cooperation required. Security can’t be think of as before.
  • Transcript of "Rio Meeting Summary and Summary Report of the Security Council of the UN"

    1. 1. Presentation on Rio MeetingSummary and Summary report of the Security Council of the UN Carolina Navarrete-Frias Global Canopy Programme - GCP International Center for Tropical Agriculture – CIAT Climate and Development Knowledge Network - CDKN
    2. 2. Climate Change as a “Threat Multiplier” CC as a “Threat Multiplier” 4) Threats to 2) Threats to 3) Threats from International 1) Threats to Economic Uncoordinated Cooperation in Human Well-Being Development Coping Managing Shared ResourcesSource: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General
    3. 3. CC “Threat Multiplier” 1. THREATS TO HUMAN WELL-BEINGAgriculture & Water Health Coastal areas, humanFood Security settlements & infrastructure ↑ Water stress ↑Conditions for ↑ Sea levels↑ Risk of hunger transmission of diarrhea, ↑ Malnutrition ↑ Freshwater shortagesand malnutrition dengue fever, malaria ↑Mass losses from glaciers ↑ Coastlines to inundation↑ Risk of food ↑Disease susceptibility ↑Water shortages in island ↑ Shoreline erosioninsecurity from malnutrition ↓ Water availability ↑ Disease outbreaksFood shortages ↑Diseases/deaths from ↓Hydropower potential ↑ Inundations extreme weather events ↑ Threat to coastal (heat/ cold stress) production systems & infrastructure
    4. 4. CC as a “Threat Multiplier” • Erode the revenue base of Governments 2. THREATS TO • Undermine governance capacities • Affect economy’s output (crop losses from drought, flooding) ECONOMIC • Diminish human and animal productivity DEVELOPMENT • Cause land degradation • Damage to infrastructure (roads, ports…) Most affected will be economies relying on a In combination with a number of limited number of primary political, economic and societal factors, could products at risk from result in: climate impacts (single crop agriculture & fisheries) • growing tensions over increasingly scare natural resources • decreased State authority and increase risk of domestic strife • political instability and radicalizationSource: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General
    5. 5. CC as a “Threat Multiplier” 3. THREATS FROM UNCOORDINATED COPING Population displacement Threat of intra –State Threat of loss of territory and involuntary migration conflict and statelessness -↑ - Environmental factors may -↑ Sea levels (especially island Displacement, migration, involunt increase risk of conflict states) ary migration and hence dynamics - Threat of statelessness to small difficulties of adaptation to CC - Caused by high population islands (especially in urban areas) density (migration), natural - Threat to cultural survival -↑ Pressure on resource shortages food, housing, education, health and water supply by migrants - Conflict or tension in areas receiving migrantsSource: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General
    6. 6. CC as a “Threat Multiplier” 4. THREATS TO • Possible conflicts of interests over the use of INTERNATIONAL transboundary resources (e.g. water) that become increasingly scarce as a result of CC. COOPERATION IN MANAGING SHARED • Possible statelessness could impact current disputes over maritime sovereignty RESOURCESSource: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General
    7. 7. What should we do from the CDKN-Amazonia project? The key towards effective solution of the problems is to turn threats into opportunities• Identify policies that are increasing vulnerability and enhance them, starting with the national development agenda.• Prioritize the most urgent needs so as to take advantage of the opportunities of the securities (e.g. infrastructure development).• Include social security in the agenda.• Look at the process and the interdependencies between the securities, taking benefit-sharing mechanisms as a basis for institutional arrangement
    8. 8. Final Thoughts: What do we need?• Search thoroughly for the drivers aggravating the problems in the securities (e.g. deforestation).• Prioritize interventions according to communities, country based needs, and regional perspective• Identify trade-offs in terms of prioritization and fund investment (cost benefit)• Reinvent sovereignty: new forms of inter-state cooperation is requiredWe see climate change as … … a threat multiplier to these security risk … an opportunity to create new constellations of dialogue and trans boundary cooperation
    9. 9. CIAT’s and GCP’s Work in this Direction…Understand how CC exacerbates food, water, energy, and health security in the Amazon region which impacts on sustainable development as well as potentially triggering conflict over access to these securities.Look at the impacts of CC beyond borders and highlight the interdependency between the four securities.Project Outcome: A set of policy recommendations aimed at multi- sectoral decision makers, reframing climate in the development agenda and focusing on regional cooperation, highlighting the potential to shift from a threat multiplier to an opportunity multiplier.
    10. 10. OUR EXPERTS Mark Mulligan and Jorge Rubiano - Water Security Rodomiro Ortiz - Food Security Science Ulisses Confalonieri - Health Security André Lucena - Energy SecurityAndy Jarvis, Helen Bellfield andLuis Meneses - Science Leaders.Carolina Navarrete – Policy Robert Hofstede - Policy RegionalLeader supported by SeniorAdvisory Panel. Policy Rodrigo Botero - Policy National Expert for ColombiaNiki Mardas - CommunicationLeader Carlos Scarramuzza - Policy National Expert for Brazil Jorge Malleux - Policy National Expert for Peru Communications
    11. 11. Thank you! a.jarvis@cgiar.org c.navarrete@cgiar.org http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.orghttp://www.ccafs.cgiar.org
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