Impact of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti


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Coffee and mango contribute significantly to Haiti’s agricultural gross domestic product and export revenues. A recent study conducted by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and Catholic Relief Services (CRS) revealed that future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns will have significant effects on the suitability of coffee and mango for production in Haiti. To cope with the challenges that coffee and mango growers are likely to face, it will be important to promote the diversification of agricultural systems, introduce improved coffee varieties, offer financial incentives to adopt sustainable land use practices, build capacity among smallholders, and foster the sharing of expertise.

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Impact of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti

  1. 1. Prediction of the impact of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti Anton Eitzinger, Carolina Navarette, Stefanie Neno Peter Laderach, Stephania Carmona, Carlos Navarrow August, 28th, 2014, Hotel Montana, Port au Prince, Haiti
  2. 2. Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA) • Multidisciplinary team, we think that better decisions can be made with the power of information •We have a supporting function for other CIAT research areas, globally we are leaders in different themes, among them climate change in CCAFS
  3. 3. Principles for Effective Adaptation • Adaptation is site and context specific • A first step is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate Source: variability • Planning and Implementing are contingent on social values, objectives, and risk perceptions • Decision support is most effective when it is sensitive to context and decision processes • Constraints can impede adaptation planning and Implementation • Maladaptation, because of poor planning, overemphasizing short-term outcomes, can increase vulnerability • Exists co-benefits, synergies, tradeoffs between adaptation & mitigation, different feedbacks of adaptation measures and regions
  4. 4. Climate-Resilient-Pathways 1 • Present Vulnerability • Perceptions (climate risks & adaptive capacity) • Decision making process 2 3 • Participative Prioritization of adaptation measures • Analysis of benefits and tradeoffs • Implementation • Evaluation and Monitoring • Spatial Scaling CRP
  5. 5. Towards climate adapted sustainable agriculture: Bringing together Resilience Technology adapted Technology adapted + Site specific management Technology adapted + Site specific management + Agro climatic forecasts Technology adapted + Site specific management + Agro climatic forecasts + Politics to facilitate adaptation and mitigation Simple Agriculture climate adapted sustainable production
  6. 6. Prediction of the impact of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti
  7. 7. Modeling Earth climate system Observe climate Model climate
  8. 8. B 9 Research tools Predict impacts on crops Predecir los impactos a los cultivos 1. How can we predict future crop climate suitability? By Environmental niche modeling using bioclimatic variables. Suitability of crops: MaxEnt model Suitability of crops: Ecocrop model (EXPOSURE)
  9. 9. Bioclimatic variables for suitability modeling derived from monthly temperature & precipitation • Bio1 = Annual mean temperature • Bio2 = Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) • Bio3 = Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (* 100) • Bio4 = Temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100) • Bio5 = Maximum temperature of warmest month • Bio6 = Minimum temperature of coldest month • Bio7 = Temperature Annual Range (Bio5 – Bi06) • Bio8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter • Bio9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter • Bio10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter • Bio11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter • Bio12 = Annual Precipitation • Bio13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month • Bio14 = Precipitation of Driest Month • Bio15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) • Bio16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter • Bio17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter • Bio18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter • Bio19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
  10. 10. Expert validation of current suitability • Table sectorielle Agricole du sud, • Les Responsables du Ministère de l’Environnement • le staff du programme & partenaires • Table sectorielle Agricole de la Grand Anse • Direction de protection Végétale (DPV) • Institut National du Café Haïtien (INCAH) • Programme de Mitigation des Désastres Naturels • Staff du ministère de l’agriculture a Damien 1. For Coffee: The Island in the map named Corail must be replaced by Iles des Cayemites and not suitable for coffee, this is marginal. 2. The coast of les Irois is not suitable for coffee 3. The coast of Anse d’Hainault is suitable for mango
  11. 11. Coffee and Mango in Haiti Diversification crops Results
  12. 12. Coffee & Mango vs. Altitude Results
  13. 13. 3 strategies for adapting coffee systems to future climate change 1. Invest in areas that will become more suitable for coffee (conserve natural resources) 2. Maintain coffee production in areas that will become slightly less suitable through targeted measures 3. Start diversifying where coffee is likely to decrease significantly, eventually switching to cocoa
  14. 14. Common beans • decrease quite substantially • up to -70% of areas climate-suitable, available and without limitations in soil capacity • currently most areas are limited by maximum temperatures and could benefit from heat tolerance resistant varieties Results
  15. 15. cocoa • possess excellent suitability for cocoa in many areas and this is not predicted to be affected by changes from long-term climate patterns • opportunity to benefit from an increasing global demand for cocoa production • Main problems are small production volumes, low quality and continuing issues with fragile producer organizations should be the main focus for development Results
  16. 16. Maize and Sorghum • maize yields have clearly indicated a strong negative yield response to accumulated days above 30 °C • specific response of maize to increased high temperature days, modeling climate-suitability on a monthly timescale is highly uncertain • sorghum will increase its suitability in Haiti between 4 and 8% in available land with no or low limited soil capacity. Results
  17. 17. Yam and Malanga Results • About 6 species (out of 600 species of yam) are cultivated in the Caribbean • we modeled 2 varieties (D. rotundata, D. trifida or cushcush ) of yam and malanga (dasheen) • Results show that cushcush yam is losing suitability • White and yellow yam is gaining suitability and available areas remain more or less constant all over Haiti by 2050 • Malanga is shifting its geographical areas of suitability but generally losing suitability and areas
  18. 18. Groundnut • important secondary crop grown throughout most of rural Haiti • Our climate-suitability analysis reveals that climate change could provide an opportunity for this crop Results
  19. 19. Haiti's landcover (1:300,000 scale) - year 2008 and Haiti's soil use capacity for agriculture (1:250,000 scale) - year 1998; created by the Haitian National Centre for Geospatial Information (CNIGS); downloaded from: • Intersect climate suitability with – Land use restrictions – Protected areas & conservation – Soil capacity & erosion – …
  20. 20. Results Haiti Danger for forests New areas, need strategic investment In mid altitude zones , potentials for diversification, but crops are competing Less area for cropping
  21. 21. Key results • Threat by sea level rise and climate variability • Coffee yield/quality may decline at lower elevations as a result of lower rainfall and higher night and daytime temperatures • Risk of conversion of high-altitude forests and protected areas to cropland • Ecosystem services provided by coffee must be protected through risk management (short- and long-term) • Areas where climate change will affect coffee only marginal, farmer should adapt their production by investing (shade management, irrigation, new varieties) • In areas where coffee will be much less suitable in the future, landowners should begin diversifying (e.g cocoa to maintain the ecosystem benefit of agroforestry systems) • Mango will remain highly suitable and could, therefore , replace in lower altitudes coffee and dry beans systems • Sorghum and yam are also good options for crop diversification, since its likely that they become more suitable in the future
  22. 22. Further recommended actions • Develop climate stress-resilient coffee varieties; validate agronomic management; improve market linkages • Financial assistance (subsidies, insurance, payment for ecosystem services) • Promote diversification as short-term risk and bridge to full crop substitution as long-term strategy in respective areas • Strenghen capacity and linkages with regional and global networks to exchange knowledge and climate-change adaptation expertise