Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr
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Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr

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  • A three-level hierarchical land use classification scheme based on the time series of forest/crop related land use change maps
  •   (A & B) Comparison of variability NDVI data in vegetation covers on day 81/Mar. 22 for 2000 and 2009 series.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.

Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr Presentation Transcript

  • Potential Impact of Climate Change on Land Use in the Lao PDR Mike Salazar, Laura Collet & Rod Lefroy A short study implemented by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT)
  • Components of the Report
    • Climate Change
    • Impacts
    • Land Use Change
    • Impacts in the context of current land use
  • Climate Change
  • Climate Variables
    • Change from 1901 until 2002 in:
    • Annual Min. Temperature
    • Annual Mean Temperature
    • Annual Max. Temperature
    • Annual Precipitation
    • April Precipitation
    • May Precipitation
    • October Precipitation
  • Results 1901 – 2002: Annual Mean Temp. 2
    • Variable countrywide increase
    • Most of north & central areas: 0.1 to 0.5 ºC/100 yr
    • Southern parts: 0.5 to 1.0ºC/100 yr
  • Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2
  • Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2 Example: Sayabouri Annual Mean Temperature 1982 – 2002: 23.7 °C Modeled 2020: 24.4 °C Modeled 2050: 25.7 °C
  • Climate Change in Laos:
    • During the 20 th Century:
    • Based on analysis of the CRU dataset (and supported by local data and anecdotal evidence from villagers):
    • Temperature Significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south
    • Rainfall Significant trends in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but not large compared to the inter-annual variations
  • Climate Change in Laos:
    • During the 21 st Century:
    • Based on the IPCC A1b scenario and the mean of 7 Global Circulation models (GCMs):
    • Temperature Predict significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south
    • Rainfall Predict s ignificant and variable changes in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but changes still small compared to the current variability in rainfall
  • Impacts
  • Sugarcane: Current & Future Suitability
  • Arabica coffee: Current & Future Suitability
  • Land Use Change
  • Assessing Land Use & Land Use Change
    • Land Use Statistics
    • FAO statistics (1961 – 2007) (crops, timber, land-use)
    • MAF crop statistics for the Province (District) (1976-2008)
    • Land Use Change Analysis
    • MODIS 10-day 250 m NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) product for 2000-2009
    • Compared 22 March 2000 with 22 March 2009
    • Analysis of vegetation cover (NDVI)
    • Detection of vegetation change
  • Detecting Land Use Change – Results 2000 2009 Bare Land: < 0.5 Dense Vegetation: > 0.75
  • Detecting Land Use Change – Results Example of Sayabouri Province 2000 2009 Maiz
  • Detecting Land Use Change – Results Main Decrease: -150 - -7 Main Increase: 20 - 100 Mean: -2.32
  • Fire Patterns Spatial distribution of fire mapped over an elevation gradient by the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, 2008 and 2009 in Xieng Ngeung and Botene districts
  • Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Botene
  • Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Xieng Ngeun
  • Conclusion and Recommendations
      • The resilience and sustainability of many farming systems is very low
      • More integrated crop and livestock systems, with a much higher degree of resource management, are needed
      • Such systems changes, while reducing risk and introducing greater resilience for the current situation will also prepare for the hotter and more water-challenged future predicted with climate change
  • Thank you