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Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr
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Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr

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  • A three-level hierarchical land use classification scheme based on the time series of forest/crop related land use change maps
  •   (A & B) Comparison of variability NDVI data in vegetation covers on day 81/Mar. 22 for 2000 and 2009 series.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Land Use in the Lao PDR Mike Salazar, Laura Collet & Rod Lefroy A short study implemented by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT)
    • 2. Components of the Report
      • Climate Change
      • Impacts
      • Land Use Change
      • Impacts in the context of current land use
    • 3. Climate Change
    • 4. Climate Variables
      • Change from 1901 until 2002 in:
      • Annual Min. Temperature
      • Annual Mean Temperature
      • Annual Max. Temperature
      • Annual Precipitation
      • April Precipitation
      • May Precipitation
      • October Precipitation
    • 5. Results 1901 – 2002: Annual Mean Temp. 2
      • Variable countrywide increase
      • Most of north & central areas: 0.1 to 0.5 ºC/100 yr
      • Southern parts: 0.5 to 1.0ºC/100 yr
    • 6. Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2
    • 7. Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2 Example: Sayabouri Annual Mean Temperature 1982 – 2002: 23.7 °C Modeled 2020: 24.4 °C Modeled 2050: 25.7 °C
    • 8. Climate Change in Laos:
      • During the 20 th Century:
      • Based on analysis of the CRU dataset (and supported by local data and anecdotal evidence from villagers):
      • Temperature Significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south
      • Rainfall Significant trends in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but not large compared to the inter-annual variations
    • 9. Climate Change in Laos:
      • During the 21 st Century:
      • Based on the IPCC A1b scenario and the mean of 7 Global Circulation models (GCMs):
      • Temperature Predict significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south
      • Rainfall Predict s ignificant and variable changes in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but changes still small compared to the current variability in rainfall
    • 10. Impacts
    • 11. Sugarcane: Current & Future Suitability
    • 12. Arabica coffee: Current & Future Suitability
    • 13. Land Use Change
    • 14. Assessing Land Use & Land Use Change
      • Land Use Statistics
      • FAO statistics (1961 – 2007) (crops, timber, land-use)
      • MAF crop statistics for the Province (District) (1976-2008)
      • Land Use Change Analysis
      • MODIS 10-day 250 m NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) product for 2000-2009
      • Compared 22 March 2000 with 22 March 2009
      • Analysis of vegetation cover (NDVI)
      • Detection of vegetation change
    • 15. Detecting Land Use Change – Results 2000 2009 Bare Land: < 0.5 Dense Vegetation: > 0.75
    • 16. Detecting Land Use Change – Results Example of Sayabouri Province 2000 2009 Maiz
    • 17. Detecting Land Use Change – Results Main Decrease: -150 - -7 Main Increase: 20 - 100 Mean: -2.32
    • 18. Fire Patterns Spatial distribution of fire mapped over an elevation gradient by the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, 2008 and 2009 in Xieng Ngeung and Botene districts
    • 19. Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Botene
    • 20. Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Xieng Ngeun
    • 21. Conclusion and Recommendations
        • The resilience and sustainability of many farming systems is very low
        • More integrated crop and livestock systems, with a much higher degree of resource management, are needed
        • Such systems changes, while reducing risk and introducing greater resilience for the current situation will also prepare for the hotter and more water-challenged future predicted with climate change
    • 22. Thank you

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