Plant genetic resources and climate change
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Plant genetic resources and climate change



Presentation made on the 15th November 2010 in New Delhi, India in the office of NBPGR by Andy Jarvis.

Presentation made on the 15th November 2010 in New Delhi, India in the office of NBPGR by Andy Jarvis.



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Plant genetic resources and climate change Presentation Transcript

  • 1. © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
    Plant genetic resource: Threats and opportunities arising from climate change
    Andy Jarvis, Julián Ramírez, Nora Castañeda, Nigel Maxted, Robert Hijmans and Jacob Van Etten
  • 2. Content
    Some background on climate change and what it means for agriculture
    Focus on crop wild relatives: threats and opportunities
    The CGIAR-ESSP lead Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security global program of research
    Concluding remarks
  • 3. Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
  • 4. Global Climate Models (GCMs)
    21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology
    Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future
    Run using different emissions scenarios
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Temperatures rise….
  • 8. Changes in rainfall…
  • 9. The Impacts on Crop Suitability
  • 10. Empirical evidence of serious problems in the US
    • In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
    • 11. For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C
    Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
  • 12. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
  • 13. Impacts of climate change to food security
    Lobell et al. looked at impacts of climate change on food security
    Cassava clearly highlighted as suffering least among many staples
    Particular opportunities as an alternative crop for southern Africa
  • 14. Crop wild relatives - Thefoundation of agriculture
  • 15. Wild relatives of crops
    Includeboth progenitor species and closelyrelatedspecies of cultivatedcrops
    Faba beans – 0 wild relatives
    Potato – 172 wild relativespecies
    Increasinglyuseful in breeding, especiallyforbioticresistance
  • 16. Photos from Jose Valls, CENARGEN
  • 17. Why conserve CWR diversity?
    234 papers cited
    Maxted and Kell, 2009
    Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase
    Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999
  • 18. Wild relative species
    A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
    A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
    A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
    Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance
    COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
  • 19. Grassy stunt virus in rice
    Resistance from Oryzanivaragenes
    (Barclay 2004)
    Potato late blight
    Resistance from Solanumdemissun
    and S. stoloniferum
    National potato council (2003)
  • 20. Nevo and Chen 2010
    Adaptation to abiotic stress
  • 21. Quality traits
  • 22. Post harvest deterioration - Cassava
    Courtesy of Emmanuel Okogbenin
  • 23. Why conserve CWR Diversity?
    Value as wild plant species in natural ecosystems
    Value of CWR as actual or potential gene donors:
    US$340 million a year in US (Prescott-Allen and Prescott Allen, 1986)
    $20 billion toward increased crop yields per year in the United States and $115 billion worldwide (Pimentel et al., 1997)
    US$10 billion annually in global wholesale farm values (Phillips and Meilleur, 1998)
    • Individual examples of use:
    • 24. Lycopersicon chmielewskii sweetening tomato US $ 5-8million per year (Iltis, 1988)
    • 25. Various CWR of wheat provide disease resistance to wheat and US benefits by US $ 50m per year (Witt, 1985)
    Courtesy of Nigel Maxted
  • 26. Threats
  • 27. Impact of climate change on CWR
    Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change
    Wild potatoes
    Wild African Vigna
    Wild peanuts
  • 28.
  • 29. Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
    Shift south and upwards
  • 30. Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
    Shift upwards
  • 31. Summary Impacts
    16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct
    Most species losing over 50% of their range size
    Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct
    For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct
  • 32. Wild relative species
    A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
    A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
    A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
    Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance
    COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
  • 33. Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts
  • 34. More immediate threats….
  • 35. Concentration of the natural distributiononthearea of mostintensivecattle-raising and cropproductionactivity in Brazil has notbeen a seriousproblem, in thepast, forpreservation of local wild species of Arachis, buttheadvance of themodern, mechanizedagriculture, in thelastfewdecades, and speciallythe use of herbicideshaveimposedseverepressureon wild populations. Thisisalso true for Eastern Bolivia, wheremanyspecies of sectionArachisoccur.
    Adapted from Nature, v.466, p.554-556, 2010
    Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN
  • 36. Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN
  • 37. © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
    Howwellconserved are crop wild relatives?Gap Analysis
  • 38. Why Gap Analysis?
    Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity
    Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused
    Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool
  • 39. To know what you don’t have, you first need to know what you do have
  • 40. The visible global system
  • 41. The Gap Analysis process
    • Identifyinggaps
    Proxy for:
    • Diversity
    • 42. Possibly biotic traits
    Proxy for:
    • Range of traits
    Proxy for:
    • Abiotic traits
  • An example in Phaseolus
  • 43. Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
  • 44. Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
  • 45. Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
  • 46. Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
  • 47. Gap Analysis
  • Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
  • 48. Wild Vigna collecting priorities
    Spatial analysis on current conserved materials
    *Gaps* in current collections
    Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas
    8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
  • 49. Exploration and ex-situ conservation of Capsicum flexuosum
    • Uncommon species of wild chilli, found in Paraguay and Argentina
    • 50. 18 known registers of the plant
    • 51. 2 germplasm accessions conserved in the USDA
    • 52. Genetically unknown
    • 53. Found in an area undergoing high levels of habitat loss
  • Capsicum flexuosum - FloraMap
  • 54. Habitat: Forest Margins
  • 55. Road Access
  • 56. Priority Areas for Collection
  • 57. Results
    • One plant found with few seeds, where previous herbarium record
    • 58. First accession conserved ex situ
    • 1 plant found, with few seeds
    Using GIS model
    • 6 new collections of C. flexuosum
    • 59. 160 seeds conserved ex situ
  • 60. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: A major new global program to rise to the challenge
  • 61. Improved
    Food Security
    Trade-offs and synergies
    Climate Variability and Change
    Current agricultural,
    NRM & food systems
    1. Adaptation for confronting climate risk
    2. Adaptation for progressive climate change
    3. Mitigation for reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon-storage and reducing poverty
    4. Diagnosis and vulnerability assessment for making strategic choices
    Adapted agricultural,
    NRM & food systems
  • 62. Major research questions to be addressed:
    What priority genepools for climate change adaptation are threatened, and how can they be conserved to ensure their continuing availability?
    How do cultural practices exploit this diversity and how can farmers’ knowledge be used to help identify landraces and crop varieties suited for specific climatic conditions?
    How can access to crop diversity local farmers be facilitated through enhanced seed systems or other mechanisms?
    How does on farm crop diversity in production systems contribute to maintaining productivity in the face of progressive climate change and increased variability in climate?
  • 63. Conclusions
    Major challenges from climate change: can agriculture stand up to a 2 degree warmer world?
    Plant genetic resources threatened by climate change, but also a key element of the solution
    Crop wild relative use on the increase, but poorly conserved ex situ and under threat in situ
    Need for a major collecting effort to fill gaps, and explore novel genetic approaches to further stimulate their use
  • 64.