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  • 1. Land use change analysis Overview of climate variability and likely climate change impacts on agriculture across the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) 10 – 11 March, 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam Eitzinger Anton, Giang Linh, Lefroy Rod Laderach Peter, Carmona Stephania
  • 2. 2 steps • Compare predicted future suitability change from climate models and Ecocrop maps and existing land use data • A time-series analysis of Land Use using satellite images
  • 3. Not available = natural (forest, wetland, …), protected, water, bare, urban areas Needs change = land mixed with pastoralism (forest, herbaceous, wetlands, …) Available = Agriculture (commercial, subsidized, irrigated, …) Land use change at risk for agriculture
  • 4. • A time-series of NDVI observations can be used to examine the dynamics of the growing season or monitor phenomena such as droughts. • The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set is available on a 16 day. The product is derived from bands 1 and 2 of the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on board NASA's Terra satellite. 2nd step A time-series analysis of Land Use
  • 5. 2004 – 2012
  • 6. Methodology… Download data • More than 300 images of NDVI 250m MODIS sensor were downloaded from the period 2000-2013 Image Filtering • NDVI scenes was first filtered to eliminate high and low values (poor quality data) using Quality Assessment Science Data Sets (QASDS) Noise Removal • Applying the approach of Fourier interpolation algorithm, to separate the noise spectrum from the signal spectrum of the data set frequency domain
  • 7. MODIS for analyzing the vegetation cover Presentation: Linh Giang
  • 9. 5/2000 5/2006 5/2012
  • 10. 5/2000 5/2006 5/2012 MeKong detla area
  • 11. 5/2000 5/2006 5/2012 Laos area
  • 12. 2002-2009 Forest cover change (WWF report, 2013)
  • 13. Mainland Southeast Asia: Land Cover 2004 The FLAMES project
  • 14. WWF identified the key drivers of change of vegetation cover: - Human population growth and increasing population density. - Unsustainable levels of resource use throughout the region, increasing driven by the demands of export- led growth rather than subsistence use; - Unplanned and frequently unsustainable forms of infrastructure development (dams, roads…) World Population Density (people/km2)
  • 15. Conclusion • MODIS data is useful to get overview of the vegetation cover change in the long time, • The highest changes in research area have concentrated in the Vietnam and Myanmar with deforestation reason. Laos has the contain of vegetation cover, • The result data has the good quality, recorded the same result with other projects
  • 16. Thank you for your attention