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Is cassava the answer to African   climate change adaptation?                    Julian Ramirez-Villegas       Andy Jarvis...
Why cassava?: a main staple in Africa• Contributed ~84 kcal/capita/day in 2007 (globally)• In Africa, however, it was 154 ...
Crop hardiness: reported                                  physiological responses                         • Adapted to war...
Some limiting factors• Pests and diseases         Herrera et al. (2011)• Low input farming systems, thus large yield  gaps...
Potential for climate change        adaptation
“In 2002, cassava was consideredan ‘orphan crop’, neglected byboth investors and practitioners ofagricultural research”   ...
Potential for climate change adaptation• No systematic approach  to quantify the potential  of cassava• Lobell et al. (200...
Approach• Use a simple suitability model to quantify the  response of the crop by 2030s (SRES-A1B)• Uncertainty in project...
The EcoCrop model…uses parameterised thresholds to determineclimatic suitability of a particular environment…             ...
Findings• Positive impacts or very little negative effects                           Low                           signal ...
Cassava vs. other staples
Benefits of crop improvement  Breeding drought /   Breeding heat / cold     waterlogging           tolerance
In addition to large CO2                stimulationRosenthal et al. (2012)report ~100 %increases in root yieldunder elevat...
But more work is needed on pests         and diseases                Potentially                less pressure
In 2012, our article empowered CIAT to play a majorrole in the Global Cassava Partnership 21st Century,now receiving funds...
Conclusions• Cassava consistently outperforming  other staples in SSA under climate  change• Stress-tolerant cassava for m...
Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013
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Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013

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Talk on our 2012 Tropical Plant Biology paper. Given at University of Leeds on 19th March 2013. Publication prize giving ceremony.

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Transcript of "Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013"

  1. 1. Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation? Julian Ramirez-Villegas Andy Jarvis, Beatriz Herrera and Carlos Navarro
  2. 2. Why cassava?: a main staple in Africa• Contributed ~84 kcal/capita/day in 2007 (globally)• In Africa, however, it was 154 kcal/capita/day (387 wheat, 359 for maize, 205 rice)• Africa: ~124.3 million Ton produced in 2010 (52% of total) FAOSTAT (2012)
  3. 3. Crop hardiness: reported physiological responses • Adapted to warm and moist areas, but can deal with drynessPn (umol CO2 per m2/s) El-Sharkawy (2006) El-Sharkawy and Cock (1986)
  4. 4. Some limiting factors• Pests and diseases Herrera et al. (2011)• Low input farming systems, thus large yield gaps Licker et al. (2010)
  5. 5. Potential for climate change adaptation
  6. 6. “In 2002, cassava was consideredan ‘orphan crop’, neglected byboth investors and practitioners ofagricultural research” Fauquet et al. (2012)
  7. 7. Potential for climate change adaptation• No systematic approach to quantify the potential of cassava• Lobell et al. (2008) report increases of +1.1 % (average)• Liu et al. (2008) report little impacts on cassava yield (-2 to 1 %)
  8. 8. Approach• Use a simple suitability model to quantify the response of the crop by 2030s (SRES-A1B)• Uncertainty in projected climate quantified through the use of multiple (24) GCMs• Compare with other staples in the region (maize, beans, sorghum, banana, millet, potato)• Benefits of further crop improvement• Assess the impacts on pests and diseases
  9. 9. The EcoCrop model…uses parameterised thresholds to determineclimatic suitability of a particular environment… Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2013 Agr. For. Met. 170: 67-78
  10. 10. Findings• Positive impacts or very little negative effects Low signal Moderate to high uncertainty
  11. 11. Cassava vs. other staples
  12. 12. Benefits of crop improvement Breeding drought / Breeding heat / cold waterlogging tolerance
  13. 13. In addition to large CO2 stimulationRosenthal et al. (2012)report ~100 %increases in root yieldunder elevated CO2 Under optimal management Further evidence of the crop’s potential under climate change
  14. 14. But more work is needed on pests and diseases Potentially less pressure
  15. 15. In 2012, our article empowered CIAT to play a majorrole in the Global Cassava Partnership 21st Century,now receiving funds from the Gates Foundation.
  16. 16. Conclusions• Cassava consistently outperforming other staples in SSA under climate change• Stress-tolerant cassava for managing risk• And also for transformational adaptation (transition systems)• Crop improvement to further increase biotic stress resistance
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